发生第三次世界大战的可能性有多大？：英语精读讲义

At least 108 million people have been killed in wars in the 20th century. 短語搭配

在20世纪，至少有1.08亿人在战争中丧生。

The First World War started in Europe and lasted more than 4 years from 1914 to 1918

第一次世界大战爆发于欧洲，从1914年到1918年持续了4年多，

with 7 million civilians and 10 million military personnel losing their lives.

导致700万平民和1000万军人丧生。

The Second World War lasted for 6 years from 1939 to 1945

第二次世界大战从1939年到1945年持续了6年，

with deaths ranging from 50 million to more than 80 million. 語法

死亡人数在5000万到8000多万之间。

Both of these wars were catastrophic,

这两场战争都是灾难性的，

but could it happen again?

但它还会再次发生吗？

That's what we'll find out in this episode of The Infographics Show.

这就是我们在本期《The Infographics Show》中要探讨的。

What are the chances of World War III?

第三次世界大战爆发的几率有多大？

Wars can break out for a number of reasons. 短語動詞

战争爆发的原因有很多。

World War I arguably started when Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria

可以说，第一次世界大战始于奥地利弗朗茨·斐迪南大公

was assassinated on June 28th, 1914.

于1914年6月28日遇刺。

This was the immediate cause, 短語搭配

这是直接原因，

but there were a series of events which triggered the 4-year-long war. 短語搭配

但有一系列事件最终引发了这场长达四年的战争。

And though there were a number of incidents that led to World War II, 短語搭配

虽然引发第二次世界大战的事件也很多，

the European emergence of the conflict came about on September 1st, 1939, 短語動詞

但欧洲战场的冲突爆发于1939年9月1日，

when Germany invaded Poland,

当时德国入侵了波兰，

which led Britain and France to declare war on Hitler's Nazi state in retaliation. 講解

作为报复，英国和法国向希特勒的纳粹国家宣战。

A third World War could come about through a US-Russia dispute

第三次世界大战可能会因为美俄争端而爆发，

or possibly US-China.

或者也可能是中美之间。

And of course, North Korea,

当然，还有朝鲜，

which has been the hot topic in the press right now 短語搭配

目前它是新闻媒体上的热门话题，

after President Trump's historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

在特朗普总统与朝鲜领导人金正恩举行历史性会晤之后。

Hopefully,

希望

that's made it less likely that a war with North Korea will happen anytime soon. 講解

这让与朝鲜在近期内爆发战争的可能性降低了。

A recent New York Post article featured the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin,

最近《纽约邮报》的一篇文章引用了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的话，

who said,

他说，

"The understanding that a third World War could be the end of civilization

“认识到第三次世界大战可能是文明的终结，

should restrain us from taking extreme steps on the international arena 講解

应该制止我们在国际舞台上采取

that are highly dangerous for modern civilization."

对现代文明极为危险的极端举措。”

This was during his annual televised call-in show

这是在他一年一度的电视连线节目中说的，

where he fields questions from the public. 用詞

在节目中他回答公众的提问。

When you mention the words World War III,

当你提到“第三次世界大战”这个词时，

you can't help but think of nuclear weapons, 短語搭配

你不禁会想到核武器，

as it's likely a third World War would be a nuclear one.

因为第三次世界大战很可能是一场核战争。

Before we explore how a nuclear war might play out, 短語動詞

在我们探讨核战争可能如何演变之前，

let's first take a brief look back at the history of nuclear weapons development. 短語搭配

让我们先简要回顾一下核武器的发展历史。

The world's first nuclear weapons explosion

世界上第一次核武器爆炸

was on July 16th, 1945

发生在1945年7月16日

in New Mexico,

在新墨西哥州，

when the United States tested its first nuclear bomb.

当时美国试爆了第一颗原子弹。

It was only 3 weeks later, 語法

仅仅3周后，

on August 6th, 1945,

即1945年8月6日，

that the United States dropped an atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima.

美国向日本广岛市投下了原子弹。

It killed or wounded nearly 130,000 people,

造成近13万人死伤，

and 3 days later,

3天后，

the United States bombed Nagasaki,

美国轰炸了长崎，

which killed 74,000 people

造成74000人死亡，

and injured another 75,000.

另有75000人受伤。

These two events marked the end of World War II. 短語搭配

这两个事件标志着第二次世界大战的结束。

Because this was back at the beginning of nuclear weapons development,

因为当时正处于核武器发展的初期，

and with only one side having nuclear capability, 語法

且只有一方拥有核能力，

there was no retaliation.

所以没有遭到报复。

Following the Second World War,

第二次世界大战后，

the United States,

美国、

the Soviet Union,

苏联

and Great Britain conducted more nuclear weapons tests,

和英国进行了更多的核武器试验，

and in 1958,

在1958年，

nearly 10,000 scientists presented to United Nations Secretary General Dag Hammarskjöld

近10000名科学家向联合国秘书长达格·哈马舍尔德提交了

a petition that begged,

一份请愿书，恳求道：

"We deem it imperative that immediate action be taken 語法

“我们认为，当务之急是立即采取行动，

to effect an international agreement 用詞

促成一项国际协议，

to stop testing of all nuclear weapons."

停止所有核武器的试验。”

Throughout the 1960s and 70s,

在整个20世纪60年代和70年代，

as more development took place, 短語動詞

随着更多技术的发展，

treaties were signed to promote disarmament,

签署了旨在促进裁军的条约，

but more and more countries developed nuclear weapons. 語法

但越来越多的国家开发了核武器。

Today,

如今，

they are believed to be around 16,300 nuclear weapons 語法

据信约有16300件核武器

spread between nine countries.

分布在九个国家。

They are the United States, Russia, the UK, France, China,

它们是美国、俄罗斯、英国、法国、中国、

North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Israel.

朝鲜、印度、巴基斯坦和以色列。

Russia and the US share 93% of all nuclear warheads out there,

俄罗斯和美国拥有全球93%的核弹头，

but they have been asked to reduce the number of weapons under the START Treaty,

但根据START条约，他们被要求削减武器数量。

which stands for Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. 短語搭配

START代表《削减战略武器条约》。

All these weapons make the prospect of a third World War

所有这些武器使得第三次世界大战的前景

very different to the first and second World Wars. 用詞

与第一次和第二次世界大战截然不同。

So assuming World War III did kick off, 講解

所以，假设第三次世界大战真的爆发了，

and it was nuclear,

并且是一场核战争，

what would it look like?

它会是什么样子？

HuffPost has launched HuffPost Apocalypse,

《赫芬顿邮报》推出了“赫芬顿邮报世界末日”项目，

a project that aims to investigate what an apocalypse would mean for humanity, 語法

这是一个旨在调查世界末日对人类意味着什么的项目，

and to support this,

为了支持这一项目，

have been doing their own research and analysis

他们一直在进行自己的研究和分析，

into what the effects of a nuclear war might be.

以了解核战争可能会产生什么影响。

In a recent article,

在最近的一篇文章中，

they propose two scenarios.

他们提出了两种设想。

The first,

第一种，

a global nuclear war centered on a US and Russia conflict. 短語搭配

一场以美俄冲突为中心的全球核战争。

In this scenario,

在这种设想下，

at between 1,800 and 3,000 large warheads

将有1800到3000枚大型核弹头

would be fired at nuclear weapon launch sites,

会被发射到核武器发射场、

ports, major industry command centers,

港口、主要工业指挥中心、

power stations, and densely populated areas.

发电站和人口稠密地区。

The other potential area of tension that could spark a conflict is between India and Pakistan. 習語

另一个可能引发冲突的潜在紧张地区是印度和巴基斯坦之间。

This scenario would be on a much smaller scale 短語搭配

这种设想的规模要小得多，

with around 100 smaller nuclear weapons being used

大约会使用100件较小的核武器，

out of stockpiles of around 200,

它们来自大约200件的库存，

with strikes on densely populated supercities

袭击目标是人口稠密的超级城市，

such as Delhi and Karachi.

例如德里和卡拉奇。

But it's possible that it could lead to a larger conflict

但这也有可能引发一场更大的冲突，

with other countries becoming involved. 語法

并把其他国家卷入其中。

What would the fallout be? 用詞

其后果会是什么？

When these bombs are dropped,

当这些炸弹被投下时，

there would be intense nuclear radiation

将会产生强烈的核辐射，

and a blinding flash brighter than the sun,

和比太阳还要明亮的刺眼闪光，

a fierce fireball,

炽热的火球，

and a massive blast wave that would kill thousands.

以及能夺走数千人生命的巨大冲击波。

With so many casualties, 語法

由于伤亡惨重，

aid organizations would be overwhelmed and unable to help all of the injured,

救援组织将不堪重负，无法帮助所有伤者，

meaning many would be left to fend for themselves 講解

这意味着许多人不得不自生自灭，

with severe injuries including burns, broken bones, and deep cuts from flying debris.

带着烧伤、骨折和被飞溅碎片造成的深重割伤等严重伤害。

And the long-term results would be even more catastrophic.

而长期的后果将更加具有灾难性。

With so many fires burning,

到处都是大火，

the skies would be filled with smoke clouds

天空将布满烟云，

similar to a large volcanic eruption.

就像发生大型火山爆发一样。

These would block out the sun, 短語動詞

这些烟云会遮挡住太阳，

which would cause the atmosphere and Earth to cool,

导致大气层和地球降温，

resulting in what's known as a nuclear winter. 講解

从而产生所谓的“核冬天”。

The latest climate model suggests

最新的气候模型表明，

that the use of a few tens to a hundred of the smaller nuclear weapons 語法

在印度-巴基斯坦的设想中，使用几十到一百枚较小的核武器

in the India-Pakistan scenario

——在印度-巴基斯坦的情景下——

would cause severe frosts, drought, and famine,

将导致严重的霜冻、干旱和饥荒，

which would last up to 10 years and stretch across the entire Northern Hemisphere. 短語搭配

这些灾害将持续长达10年，并蔓延至整个北半球。

In the bigger America-Russia scenario,

在规模更大的美俄设想中，

there would be a long-lasting cold period with a global reach.

将出现一个波及全球的持久寒冷期。

It would go on for a decade or more and could be likened to a mini Ice Age. 講解

它将持续十年或更长时间，堪比一次小冰河期。

Talk of a third World War has been going on for years. 語法

关于第三次世界大战的谈论已经持续多年了。

Much of the fear driven by the Cold War tensions between Russia and America,

很多恐惧是由俄罗斯和美国之间冷战的紧张局势引起的，

which lasted from 1947 to 1991.

冷战从1947年持续到了1991年。

These days, there are still concerns that these two nations could come to blows, 習語

如今，仍然有人担心这两个国家可能会发生冲突，

but the rise in power of China and also the nuclear development program in North Korea 短語搭配

但中国的崛起，以及朝鲜的核发展计划

has meant new danger areas are present.

意味着出现了新的危险领域。