数学上更优越的投票系统：英语精读讲义

Queen Lion of the Animal Kingdom is displeased.

动物王国的狮子女王很不高兴。

She recently introduced elections for the office of king using the first-past-the-post voting system. 文化背景

她最近为了选出国王，引入了简单多数制的选举系统。

While her realm started out as a healthy democracy 短語動詞

虽然她的王国一开始是个健康的民主国家，

with many parties running candidates for king,

有许多政党派出候选人竞选国王，

it quickly devolved into two-party rule 用詞

但很快就退化成了两党制，

with the citizens not liking either one,

公民们两个都不喜欢，

but trapped within the system because of a problem called the spoiler effect. 講解

却因为一个叫“分票效应”的问题而被困在这个系统中。

However,

然而，

one of Queen Lion's subjects from a distant land,

狮子女王的一位来自远方的臣民，

Wallaby, has a solution,

小袋鼠，提出了一个解决方案：

the alternative vote. 文化背景

排序复选制。

What's the difference?

这有什么区别呢？

To find out, 表達脈絡

为了弄清楚，

let's follow one voter on election day,

让我们在选举日跟随一位选民，

Red Squirrel, under both systems.

也就是红松鼠，看看他在两种制度下的表现。

There are five candidates running for king, 用詞

有五位候选人竞选国王，

two members of the big parties,

两名是大党的成员：

Gorilla and Leopard,

大猩猩和豹子，

and three other candidates,

另外三名是其他候选人：

Turtle, Owl, and Tiger.

海龟、猫头鹰和老虎。

Under first-past-the-post,

在简单多数制下，

Red Squirrel gets a ballot where he picks just one candidate.

红松鼠拿到一张选票，只能从中选择一位候选人。

Red Squirrel really likes Turtle and even campaigned for him.

红松鼠非常喜欢海龟，甚至还为他拉过票。

However,

然而，

he knows that his new neighbor, Grey Squirrel,

他知道他的新邻居灰松鼠

is voting Gorilla.

会把票投给大猩猩。

And what, starts to wonder Red Squirrel,

那么，红松鼠开始琢磨，

about all the other animals?

其他的动物呢？

Who are they going to vote for?

他们会投票给谁呢？

The debates on the Animal News Network only had the big parties,

动物新闻网的辩论只有大党参与，

so Red Squirrel thinks it's going to be a close race between Gorilla and Leopard. 短語搭配

所以红松鼠认为这将会是大猩猩和豹子之间的激烈竞争。

While he's indifferent toward Gorilla,

虽然他对大猩猩无感，

he's deathly afraid of Leopard. 短語搭配

但他非常害怕豹子。

Because he can only pick a single candidate,

因为只能选一位候选人，

he gives his one vote to Gorilla in hopes of preventing Leopard from becoming king. 講解

他把这唯一的一票投给了大猩猩，希望能阻止豹子成为国王。

This is strategic voting, 文化背景

这就是策略性投票，

and it's a necessity under first-past-the-post.

在简单多数制下这是不可避免的。

But now let's look at the alternative vote,

但现在我们来看看排序复选制，

which Wallaby explains to Red Squirrel.

这是小袋鼠向红松鼠解释过的。

Instead of picking one and only one candidate, 語法

与其只能选择一位候选人，

he can rank them in order of his most favorite to his least. 短語搭配

他可以按从最喜欢到最不喜欢的顺序给他们排名。

He goes into the voting booth and gets the same ballot as before,

他走进投票亭，拿到了和之前一样的选票，

but now puts Turtle as his first choice,

但现在把海龟作为他的第一选择，

Owl as his second,

猫头鹰作为第二选择，

and Gorilla as his third.

大猩猩作为第三选择。

He dislikes Leopard and Tiger equally,

他一样不喜欢豹子和老虎，

so he stops filling in his ballot and drops it in the box. 短語動詞

所以他不再往下填，并把选票投进了票箱。

At this point,

在这种情况下，

Red Squirrel doesn't care exactly what happens.

红松鼠并不十分关心接下来会发生什么。

He has other things on his mind and he heads off. 講解

他心里有别的事，于是就离开了。

But you, dear citizen, 表達脈絡

但是你，亲爱的公民，

want to know how the votes are counted,

想知道选票是如何计算的，

so here goes. 短語搭配

所以开始了。

Turtle, beloved though he is with some of the citizenry, 語法

海龟虽然深受一些公民的喜爱，

comes in last place with only 5%,

但以仅5%的得票率垫底，

and he's eliminated from the race.

被淘汰出局。

Because the voters ranked their candidates in order,

因为选民们对候选人进行了排序，

we can know what would have happened if Turtle didn't run. 語法

我们就能知道如果海龟没有参选会发生什么。

Without Turtle, voters like Red Squirrel would have picked Owl instead,

如果没有海龟，像红松鼠这样的选民会转而选择猫头鹰，

so their votes are transferred to her as though Turtle was never in the race at all. 語法

所以他们的选票会转移给猫头鹰，就当海龟根本没有参选过一样。

This is why the alternative vote is sometimes called instant runoff voting. 文化背景

这就是为什么排序复选制有时被称为“即时排序投票制”。

It's able to simulate a bunch of elections 用詞

它能够模拟多场选举，

where the least popular candidate is eliminated after each round

每轮淘汰得票最少的候选人，

without all the time and expense it would take to run a bunch of campaigns one after another.

而无需投入大量时间和金钱接连举办一场又一场的竞选。

The alternative vote method keeps eliminating the least popular candidate 語法

排序复选制会不断淘汰得票最少的候选人，

until someone either wins a majority or only one is left. 語法

直到有人赢得多数票或只剩下最后一人。

As no one has a majority yet,

由于还没有人获得多数票，

the next lowest candidate, Tiger, is eliminated.

得票倒数第二的候选人——老虎，被淘汰了。

Tiger voters listed Leopard as their second choice,

投给老虎的选民把豹子列为第二选择，

so she gets Tiger's votes.

所以老虎的选票就归她了。

In the last round, Gorilla is eliminated.

在最后一轮，大猩猩被淘汰了。

Gorilla voters listed Owl as their second choice,

投给大猩猩的选民把猫头鹰列为第二选择，

so Owl gets those votes,

所以猫头鹰获得了这些选票，

wins a majority,

赢得了多数票，

and is crowned king.

加冕为王。

The alternative vote is a better system

排序复选制是一个更好的系统，

because it produces winners that a larger number of voters can agree on. 短語搭配

因为它能选出更多选民都能接受的赢家。

While the alternative vote does have its flaws, 語法

虽然排序复选制确实也有缺陷，

it's important to note that any problem AV has, 表達脈絡

但重要的是要注意，排序复选制的任何问题，

first-past-the-post also shares.

简单多数制同样也有。

They're both susceptible to gerrymandering, 文化背景

它们都容易受到杰利蝾螈（不当划分选区）的影响，

they aren't proportional systems,

它们都不是比例代表制，

they can't guarantee a Condorcet winner, 文化背景

它们都不能保证选出孔多塞赢家

which math geeks hate,

（数学极客们对此深恶痛绝，

but there isn't time to explain here,

但这里没时间解释了），

and over time they both trend towards two parties. 短語搭配

而且随着时间的推移，它们都会趋向于两党制。

That being said, 表達脈絡

话虽如此，

alternative vote has a huge advantage that first-past-the-post lacks and makes it mathematically superior,

排序复选制有一个简单多数制所缺乏的巨大优势，使其在数学上更胜一筹：

no spoiler effect.

那就是没有分票效应。

Imagine one final election.

想象最后一次选举。

Two big candidates are running,

两大候选人参选，

Gorilla and Leopard,

大猩猩和豹子，

and Leopard looks set to win 55 to 45, 短語搭配

豹子眼看要以55对45获胜，

but then a third-party candidate, Tiger, enters. 文化背景

但这时第三党候选人老虎加入了。

Tiger manages to convince 15% of the Leopard voters to back him instead. 講解

老虎成功说服了15%原本支持豹子的选民转而支持他。

Under first-past-the-post,

在简单多数制下，

Gorilla now wins even though a majority of the voters didn't want him. 語法

尽管大多数选民并不想要大猩猩，他现在却赢了。

Under the alternative vote,

在排序复选制下，

because all Tiger voters put Leopard as a second choice,

因为所有投给老虎的选民都会把豹子作为第二选择，

Leopard still wins

豹子依然会赢，

because a majority of the citizens of the Animal Kingdom would rather have her in charge than Gorilla. 講解

因为动物王国的大多数公民更希望由她而不是大猩猩来掌权。

Using the alternative vote,

使用排序复选制，

citizens can help support and grow smaller parties that they agree with 短語搭配

公民们可以帮助支持并壮大他们认同的小党派，

without worrying that they'll put someone they don't like into office. 講解

而不必担心这会让一个他们不喜欢的人上台。

After examining the differences between them, 語法

在考察了这两种制度的区别之后，

Queen Lion decrees that the alternative vote is to be the rule of the land for electing the king 講解

狮子女王颁布法令，下令以排序复选制作为选出国王的最高法则，

and everyone is happier.

每个人都变得更加快乐了。

Well, 表達脈絡

好吧，

almost everyone.

几乎每个人。

The two big parties can't be as complacent as they used to be 語法

两大党不能再像过去那样自满了，

and need to campaign much harder to convince their voters to support them.

并且需要更加努力地拉票，以说服选民支持他们。

This has been the alternative vote explained by me,

以上就是我对排序复选制的解释，

CGP Grey.

我是 CGP Grey。

Thank you very much for watching.

非常感谢你的观看。