迄今为止人类拍了多少张照片？：英语精读讲义

Hey, Vsauce.

嘿，Vsauce。

Michael here.

我是 Michael。

In 1826,

1826年，

this became the very first photograph ever taken. 語法

这成了有史以来拍摄的第一张照片。

And in 1992,

而在1992年，

this became the very first image ever uploaded to the web.

这成了有史以来第一张上传到网络的图片。

But how many photographs have we all taken altogether

但我们大家总共拍了多少张照片

throughout all of history?

——放眼整个历史来看呢？

Well,

嗯，

1,000 Memories investigated this very question.

1,000 Memories 调查的正是这个问题。

They took a look at the number of digital cameras currently in use, 短語搭配

他们研究了目前正在使用的数码相机数量，

typical usage of a digital camera,

数码相机的常见使用情况，

as well as the amount of analog film and film developing supplies 短語搭配

以及传统胶卷和胶卷冲洗用品的数量，

used by the industry ever since the 19th century. 語法

也就是这个行业自19世纪以来的相关用量。

Tabulated altogether,

汇总所有数据后，

they estimated that we have taken

他们估计，我们已经拍摄了

3 and 1/2 trillion photographs,

3.5万亿张照片，

4 billion of which were taken this year alone. 語法

其中仅今年一年就拍了40亿张。

We are snapping more photographs than ever before 語法

我们现在拍的照片比以往任何时候都多，

because of the proliferation of easy-to-use, 用詞

因为简单易用、

affordable digital cameras.

价格实惠的数码相机已经非常普及。

In fact,

事实上，

we take four times more pictures per day 語法

我们现在每天拍的照片数量

than we did 10 years ago.

是10年前的四倍。

Or think of it this way. 表達脈絡

也可以换个角度想。

Today,

如今，

every 2 minutes,

每过2分钟，

humanity takes more pictures

人类拍摄的照片数量

than we took altogether in the entire 1800s.

就超过整个19世纪拍摄的照片总量。

Of course,

当然，

the 1800s were a long time ago,

19世纪已经是很久以前了，

but if we take every year from the invention of photography until today,

但如果把摄影术发明以来直到今天的每一年都算在内，

10% of all of those images,

所有这些图片中有10%，

a 10th of every still image recorded of our world

也就是所有记录我们世界的静态图像的十分之一，

was taken in the last 12 months.

都是在过去12个月里拍摄的。

That's a lot.

这可真不少。

But even crazier is the fact that a fifth of these images, 語法

但更疯狂的是，这些图片中有五分之一，

20% of them,

也就是其中的20%，

all wind up in the same place, 短語動詞

最后全都去了同一个地方：

Facebook.

Facebook。

Facebook is huge.

Facebook 的规模非常庞大。

But to put it in perspective, 習語

不过，为了让你有个直观概念，

you Vsaucers are huge.

你们这些 Vsauce 粉丝加起来也很庞大。

If all of us got together in one place and claimed independence, 講解

如果我们所有人聚在一个地方并宣布独立，

we would become the 152nd largest country on Earth,

我们就会成为世界第152大国家，

right between Guinea-Bissau and Trinidad and Tobago.

正好排在几内亚比绍与特立尼达和多巴哥之间。

But Facebook,

但 Facebook

with its 1 billion users,

凭借其10亿用户，

would be the third largest country on Earth.

将成为世界第三大国家。

To take a quick, dark detour, 表達脈絡

先快速岔开一下，聊个沉重的话题：

of those 1 billion people on Facebook,

Facebook 上这10亿人中，

it's estimated that 30 million of them are now dead. 語法

据估计，有3000万人如今已经去世。

And in 100 years,

而100年后，

it's estimated that half a billion of the people on Facebook

据估计，Facebook 用户中将有5亿人

will be deceased. 用詞

已经离世。

Facebook Stories offers a really neat tool where you can click on a country

Facebook Stories 提供了一个非常有趣的工具，你可以点击某个国家，

and then see what other countries most of their Facebook friends live in.

然后看看该国用户的大多数 Facebook 好友住在哪些其他国家。

It's fun to see what countries are most connected to which others,

看看哪些国家彼此联系最紧密很有意思，

but this whole thing brings up the question of degrees of separation. 講解

不过这也引出了“分隔度”的问题。

If you were to take two random people on Earth, 語法

如果从地球上随机选两个人，

how many friend of a friend of a friend of a friend's

需要经过多少层“朋友的朋友的朋友的朋友”

would you need to connect those two people?

才能把这两个人联系起来？

Well, in the real world,

嗯，在现实世界里，

it's a little difficult to figure out because we don't know who's friends with who 短語動詞

这有点难以确定，因为我们不知道谁和谁是朋友，

and there are a lot of people.

而且人数实在太多。

But luckily,

但幸运的是，

mathematics has come to our rescue. 習語

数学来帮我们了。

Watts and Strogatz showed that you could calculate

Watts 和 Strogatz 证明，我们可以计算出

the average path between any two random people

任意两个随机选中的人之间的平均路径，

quite easily.

而且非常容易。

In this equation,

在这个方程中，

the N stands for the total number of people in the population 短語搭配

N 代表总人口数，

and K stands for the number of friends each person has.

K 代表每个人拥有的朋友数。

If we assume that each person has,

如果我们假设每个人都有，

say, 30 friends 用詞

比如说，30个朋友，

and we assume that 10% of our population is too young to have actual friends,

再假设总人口中有10%的人年纪太小，还交不到真正的朋友，

it turns out that you can connect any two people on Earth with only 6.6 connections, 短語搭配

那么结果是，只需6.6层连接，就能把地球上任意两个人联系起来，

theoretically.

至少理论上如此。

Of course,

当然，

in the real world,

在现实世界中，

we don't all have the same number of friends,

我们的朋友数量并不都一样，

we don't all have 30 friends,

也不是每个人都有30个朋友，

and isolated groups make the average much, much higher.

而相互隔绝的群体会让平均值高出许多许多。

Of course,

当然，

there are non-real world places where these connections are easier to follow.

在一些并非现实世界的地方，这些联系会更容易追踪。

For instance,

比如，

Facebook.

Facebook。

Last year,

去年，

Facebook's data team released two papers showing

Facebook 的数据团队发表了两篇论文，结果显示，

that amongst all Facebook users at the time, 用詞

在当时所有的 Facebook 用户中，

the average distance between any two random users was only 4.74 friends.

任意两名随机用户之间的平均距离只有4.74层好友关系。

Twitter is even tighter. 習語

Twitter 上的联系甚至更紧密。

It's been shown that any two random users of Twitter are connected by only 4.67 friends,

研究显示，任意两名随机 Twitter 用户之间只隔着4.67层好友关系，

though some studies have shown it to be as low as 3 and 1/2. 短語搭配

还有一些研究得出的数值甚至低至3.5。

Numbers like that can make impersonal crowds seem quite intimate. 語法

这样的数字能让互不相识的人群显得相当亲近。

But one of my favorite things about crowds is how smart they are. 語法

不过，说到人群，我最喜欢的一点就是他们有多聪明。

Wisdom of the crowds is a fascinating phenomenon where the collective knowledge or guesses or estimations of a big group of people, 文化背景

“群体智慧”是一种迷人的现象：一大群人的集体知识、猜测或估算，

when averaged, 語法

取平均值后，

are better than one individual person working alone.

会比一个人单独得出的结果更准确。

A good example of this is trying to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar.

一个很好的例子，就是猜罐子里有多少颗软糖豆。

Some people will overestimate, 用詞

有些人会高估，

while others will underestimate.

另一些人则会低估。

But collectively,

但从整体来看，

each member cancels out the errors of the other 短語動詞

每个人的误差都会抵消其他人的误差，

and the group average estimation winds up being smarter than the sum of its parts. 講解

最终，群体的平均估值会比各个个体简单相加更高明。

The BBC's demonstration of this is fantastic.

BBC 对此做的演示非常精彩。

I've linked it down in the description.

我把链接放在下方简介里了。

It's worth watching. 語法

很值得一看。

They had 160 people guess the number of jelly beans in a jar. 語法

他们让160个人猜罐子里有多少颗软糖豆。

The guesses ranged from a few hundred to tens of thousands, 短語搭配

答案从几百颗到几万颗不等，

but the average of all 160 guesses was 4,515.

但160个答案的平均值是4515颗。

Only five beans away from the exact answer. 短語搭配

与准确答案只差5颗。

It's amazing to think that in a large enough group, 語法

想想看，在一个足够大的群体中，真是不可思议：

the errors and shortcomings of everyone else,

其他所有人的错误和不足，

no matter how annoying they are individually, 語法

无论单独看有多令人恼火，

actually can balance and correct our own shortcomings.

实际上都能平衡并纠正我们自身的不足。

It feels good,

这让人感觉很好，

though a little bit strange to think that in a group,

不过，一想到在一个群体中，也会觉得有点奇怪：

it's possible for nobody to be correct, 表達脈絡

可能没有任何一个人是正确的，

but for everybody to be right.

但所有人合起来却是对的。

And as always,

一如既往，

thanks for watching.

感谢观看。