仅凭22%的选票就能当选总统！：英语精读讲义

In a fair democracy, everyone's vote should count equally.

在一个公平的民主国家，每个人的选票分量都应该相等。

But the method that the United States uses to elect its president,

但是美国用来选举总统的方法，

called the Electoral College, violates this principle

也就是所谓的“选举人团”制度，违反了这一原则，

by making sure that some people's votes are more equal than others. 習語

因为它让某些人的选票比其他人的更有分量。

The Electoral College is, essentially, 文化背景

选举人团制度，本质上来说，

the 538 votes that determine who wins the presidency.

就是决定谁能赢得总统大选的538张选票。

If these votes were split evenly across the population, 短語搭配

如果这些选票在人口中平均分配，

every 574,000 people would be represented by one vote.

每57万4千人就能有一张代表选票。

But that's not what happens because the Electoral College doesn't give votes to people,

但事实并非如此，因为选举人团并不把选票分给个人，

only states,

而是分给各州，

which has some unfair consequences.

这就带来了一些不公平的后果。

For example,

例如，

there are 11.5 million people in Ohio.

俄亥俄州有1150万人口。

So, to fairly represent them,

为了公平地代表他们，

it should get 20 electoral votes.

它应该获得20张选举人票。

But the Electoral College doesn't give Ohio 20 votes,

但选举人团并没有给俄亥俄州20票，

it only gets 18,

它只得到了18票，

two less than it should.

比应得的少了2票。

Where do those other votes go?

那其他的票去哪了？

To states like Rhode Island.

去了像罗得岛这样的州。

Plucky Rhode Island has 1.1 million people in it,

勇敢的罗得岛州有110万人口，

so it should have about two votes,

所以它应该有大概两张选票，

but instead it gets four.

但它却得到了四张。

Those extra two votes that should be representing Ohioans

那多出来的、本应代表俄亥俄州人的两票

go to representing Rhode Islanders instead.

反而去代表了罗得岛州人。

Why?

为什么呢？

Because, according to the rules of the Electoral College,

因为根据选举人团的规则，

every state,

每个州，

no matter how few people live there, 語法

无论居住的人口有多稀少，

gets three votes to start with 短語搭配

一开始都会获得三张选票，

before the rest are distributed according to population. 短語搭配

然后剩下的选票再根据人口来分配。

Because of this rule,

因为这条规则，

there are a lot of states with a few people that should only have one or two votes for president,

有许多人口较少的州本来只应该有一两张总统选举票，

but instead get three or four.

但却得到了三张或四张。

So, Georgians, Virginians, Michiganders,

所以，佐治亚州、弗吉尼亚州、密歇根州，

and Jerseyites are each missing one vote.

还有新泽西州的人们，各少了一张选票。

Pennsylvanians, North Carolinians, Ohioans,

宾夕法尼亚州、北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州，

and Hoosiers are missing two, 文化背景

以及印第安纳州的人们少了二张，

Floridians are missing four,

佛罗里达州的人少了四张，

New Yorkers five,

纽约州少了五张，

Texans six,

得克萨斯州少了六张，

and Californians are 10 votes short of what they should get. 短語搭配

而加利福尼亚州的人比应得的票数少了整整十张。

Because of this vote redistribution,

因为这种选票重新分配的机制，

the Electoral College essentially pretends that fewer people live where they do

选举人团实质上是在假装人少的地方有更多人，

and more people live where they don't.

而人多的地方只有更少人。

An American who lives in one of these states

生活在这些州的美国人

has their vote for president count for less 用詞

他们的总统选票分量

than an American who lives in one of these states.

就比生活在那些州的美国人更轻。

In some cases,

在某些情况下，

the Electoral College bends the results just a little,

选举人团只让结果发生了微小的偏转，

but if you live in a particularly large or small state,

但如果你住在特别大或特别小的州，

it bends them a lot.

它就会让结果发生极大的偏转。

One Vermonter's vote,

一名佛蒙特州人的选票，

according to the Electoral College,

按照选举人团的规定，

is worth three Texans' votes, 短語搭配

相当于三名得州人的选票，

and one Wyomingite's vote is worth four Californians.

而一名怀俄明州人的选票则相当于四名加州人的选票。

Now, woah,

现在，哇，

hold on there, 語氣意圖

等一下，

son,

孩子，

you might be saying to yourself right now.

你现在可能正心里嘀咕。

You're missing the whole point of the Electoral College. 短語搭配

你完全没搞懂选举人团的意义。

It's to protect the small states from the big states.

它是为了保护小州免受大州欺压的。

Give the small states more voting power

赋予小州更多的投票权，

and the presidential candidates will have to pay them more attention in an election. 短語搭配

总统候选人在选举中就不得不给予它们更多的关注。

If that's the goal of the Electoral College,

如果这就是选举人团的目标，

it's failing spectacularly. 短語搭配

那它彻头彻尾地失败了。

Here's a graph showing the number of visits

这张图显示了在上次大选的最后两个月中，

the presidential candidates paid to each of the states

总统候选人

in the last two months of the previous election.

造访各个州的次数。

If it looks like there are a few states missing, 表達脈絡

如果看起来好像少了几个州，

you're right.

你没看错。

Only 18 of the 50 states received even a single visit from a candidate,

50个州里只有18个州有候选人去过哪怕一次，

and just two of those states,

而在这其中仅仅只有两个州，

Maine and New Hampshire,

缅因州和新罕布什尔州，

have very small populations.

人口非常少。

The area of the country with the most small states

这个国家小州最多的地区

is conspicuously missing. 短語搭配

竟然明显地消失在图上了。

The Electoral College doesn't make candidates care about small states.

选举人团并没有让候选人去关心小州。

But, interestingly,

但有趣的是，

the biggest states,

那些最大的州，

California, Texas, and New York,

加州、得州和纽约州，

are missing as well.

同样也不在图上。

So,

所以，

what's going on?

这是怎么回事？

Looking closer,

凑近一看，

just four states,

仅仅四个州，

Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia,

俄亥俄州、佛罗里达州、宾夕法尼亚州和弗吉尼亚州，

received a majority of the candidates' attention during the election.

就吸引了候选人在大选期间绝大部分的注意力。

And,

而且，

if you follow the money, 習語

如果你顺着资金流向去看，

it's the same story.

结果也是一样。

Why do candidates spend so much money and time in so few states?

为什么候选人把这么多金钱和时间花在这么少的州？

Because the way the Electoral College works

因为选举人团的运作方式

forces them to do so.

迫使他们只能这么做。

The elections are winner-take-all. 用詞

选举是“赢者全拿”的模式。

As long as a candidate gets just over 50% of the popular vote in a state, 語法

只要一位候选人在一个州赢得超过50%的普选票，

he wins 100% of that state's electoral votes.

他就能赢走该州100%的选举人票。

That means winning by millions of citizens' votes 語法

这意味着以领先数百万张公民选票获胜

is no better than winning by a single vote.

并不比仅仅以一票之差获胜更好。

So,

所以，

candidates are safe to ignore states where they poll with big margins. 短語搭配

候选人可以放心地忽视那些他们民调优势极大的州。

Instead,

相反地，

the Electoral College makes candidates intensely interested in the needs of just a few states with close races

选举人团使得候选人极度关注仅有的几个选情胶着的州的需求，

to the detriment of almost all Americans, 短語搭配

却牺牲了几乎所有美国人的利益，

which is why it should be abolished.

这也就是为什么它应该被废除的原因。

But, 表達脈絡

但是，

wait,

等等，

you might say,

你可能会说，

wouldn't abolishing the Electoral College 語法

废除选举人团

and voting directly for president

直接投票选总统，

cause candidates to spend all their time in big cities?

难道不会导致候选人把所有时间都花在大城市吗？

That wouldn't be fair to most Americans either.

这对大多数美国人来说也不公平啊。

This sounds like a reasonable fear, 表達脈絡

这听起来似乎是个合理的担忧，

but it ignores the mathematical reality of population distribution.

但它忽略了人口分布的数学现实。

There are 309 million people in the United States,

美国有3.09亿人口，

only 8 million of which live in New York, 語法

其中只有800万人生活在纽约，

the largest city by far. 短語搭配

这已经是迄今最大的城市了。

That's 2.6% of the total population.

那仅仅占总人口的2.6%。

But,

但是，

after New York,

在纽约之后，

the size of cities drops fast.

城市规模下降得很快。

LA has 3.8 million people and Chicago has 2.7.

洛杉矶有380万人，芝加哥有270万人。

But,

不过，

you can't even make it to the 10th biggest city, 短語動詞

你甚至数不到第十大城市，

San Jose,

圣何塞，

before you're under a million people.

人口就已经跌破百万了。

These top 10 cities added together are only 7.9% of the popular vote,

这前十大城市加起来仅占普选票的7.9%，

hardly enough to win an election. 語法

根本不足以赢得选举。

And even winning the next 90 biggest cities in the United States all the way down to Spokane, 短語搭配

哪怕再赢下美国接下来90个最大的城市，一直数到斯波坎，

is still not yet 20% of the total population.

仍然不到总人口的20%。

So,

所以，

unless there's a city with a few hundred million people hiding somewhere in America that's been left out of the census, 講解

除非美国某地隐藏着一座拥有几亿人口、且被人口普查漏掉的城市，

the idea that a candidate can just spend their campaign jetting between New York,

否则以为候选人可以仅仅在纽约、

LA, and Chicago

洛杉矶和芝加哥之间飞来飞去竞选

while ignoring everyone else

却忽视其他人

and still become president is mathematically ludicrous.

还能当上总统的想法，在数学上是极其荒谬的。

Want to see the real way to unfairly win?

想看看不公平获胜的真正手段吗？

How you can become president with only 22% of the popular vote

如何今天就利用选举人团制度，

by taking advantage of the Electoral College today. 短語搭配

凭借仅仅22%的普选票就当上总统。

Don't believe that's possible in a democracy?

不相信这在民主国家是可能发生的事？

Just watch.

看好了。

Here's the action plan.

这是行动计划。

Win the votes of the people who count the most 習語

赢得选票分量最重的人的票，

and ignore the people who count the least.

并无视选票分量最轻的人。

Start with Wyoming,

从怀俄明州开始，

the state where 0.18% of Americans live,

这个州住着0.18%的美国人，

but who get 0.56% of the Electoral College votes for president.

却获得了0.56%的总统选举人票。

And,

而且，

because it's a winner-take-all system,

由于这是赢者全拿的系统，

you don't need all of them to vote for you,

你不需要他们所有人投票给你，

just half plus one, 用詞

只需要一半加一票，

or 0.09%.

即0.09%就够了。

Next up is the District of Columbia, 表達脈絡

接下来是哥伦比亚特区，

where winning 0.1% of the population

在这里赢得0.1%的人口，

gets you an additional 0.56% of the Electoral College.

就能再获得0.56%的选举人票。

Then,

然后，

add in wins in Vermont and North Dakota and Alaska.

加上在佛蒙特州、北达科他州和阿拉斯加州的胜利。

Notice how the votes you're getting to win the presidency

注意，你为赢得总统大选所获得的选票，

go up much faster than the percent of the population who voted for you 語法

其增长速度远快于投票给你的民众的比例，

because of the Electoral College's rules.

这都是拜选举人团的规则所赐。

Next is South Dakota, then Delaware, Montana,

接下来是南达科他州，然后是特拉华州、蒙大拿州，

Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine, Hawaii,

罗得岛州、新罕布什尔州、缅因州、夏威夷州，

Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico,

爱达荷州、内布拉斯加州、西弗吉尼亚州、新墨西哥州，

Nevada, Utah, Kansas, Arkansas,

内华达州、犹他州、堪萨斯州、阿肯色州，

Mississippi, Iowa, Connecticut, Oklahoma,

密西西比州、爱荷华州、康涅狄格州、俄克拉何马州，

Oregon, Kentucky, Louisiana, South Carolina,

俄勒冈州、肯塔基州、路易斯安那州、南卡罗来纳州，

Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin,

阿拉巴马州、科罗拉多州、明尼苏达州、威斯康星州，

Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona,

马里兰州、密苏里州、田纳西州、亚利桑那州，

Indiana, Massachusetts, Virginia, and New Jersey.

印第安纳州、马萨诸塞州、弗吉尼亚州，最后是新泽西州。

Congratulations.

恭喜你。

By taking advantage of the unfair rules and winning states, 表達脈絡

通过利用这种不公平的规则并赢下各州，

not people,

而不是赢得人民，

you've won a majority in the Electoral College

你已经赢得了选举人团的多数票，

even though 78% of the population voted against you. 語法

即使78%的人口投票反对你。

This is not democracy. 表達脈絡

这不是民主。

This is indefensible.

这是站不住脚的。

While this particular scenario is unlikely, 語法

尽管这种特定情况不太可能发生，

if you have a voting system that allows losers to win,

但如果你的投票系统允许输家获胜，

you shouldn't be surprised when they do.

那当这种事真的发生时你也不该感到惊讶。

Not once, 表達脈絡

这不是一次，

not twice,

也不是两次，

but thrice in American history,

而是在美国历史上发生过三次，

the candidate with the most votes from the people actually lost

得到最多民众选票的候选人却实际败选了，

because of the Electoral College.

这全怪选举人团。

Three errors in 55-plus elections

55届以上的选举中出现了三次错误，

is a failure rate of 5%. 短語搭配

这就是5%的失败率。

Would anyone tolerate a sport where by a quirk of the rules, 講解

有人会容忍一种因为规则漏洞，

there was a 5% chance that the loser would win?

而导致输家有5%的机会获胜的运动吗？

Not likely.

不太可能。

Given how much more important electing the president of the United States is, 語法

考虑到选举美国总统要重要得多，

that's a rather dangerously high percentage of the time to get it wrong. 短語搭配

出现错误的比例高得相当危险。

If we abolish the Electoral College and simply let citizens vote for the president directly,

如果我们废除选举人团，仅仅让公民直接投票选总统，

all of these problems will go away 短語動詞

所有这些问题都会迎刃而解，

and everyone's vote will be equal.

每个人的选票都将是平等的。