你能看穿这个曾愚弄一代医生的谬误吗？ - 伊丽莎白·考克斯：英语精读讲义

Humanity.

人类。

It's a trainwreck, 習語

简直是一场灾难，

but I can't look away. 習語

但我又无法移开视线。

It's 1843 and a debate is raging among physicians 短語搭配

现在是1843年，医生们正在激烈争论

about one of the most common killers of women,

关于导致女性死亡的最常见疾病之一：

childbed fever. 文化背景

产褥热。

Childbed fever strikes within days of giving birth, 用詞

产褥热在分娩后的几天内发作，

killing more than 70% of those infected, 語法

导致超过70%的感染者死亡，

and nobody knows what causes it.

却没有人知道原因。

Obstetrician Charles Meigs has a theory.

产科医生查尔斯·梅格斯有一个理论。

Having observed abdominal inflammation in patients who go on to develop the fever, 講解

他观察到后来发烧的病人都曾出现腹部发炎，

he claims this inflammation is the cause of childbed fever.

于是他声称这种炎症就是导致产褥热的原因。

Much of the medical establishment supports his theory. 用詞

大多数医学界人士支持他的理论。

Oh, come on. 語氣意圖

拜托。

They really leave me no choice but to teach them some skepticism. 短語搭配

他们这真的是逼着我教他们一点怀疑精神啊。

That's better.

这样好多了。

Now, Meigs,

好了，梅格斯，

your argument is based on a fallacy, 短語搭配

你的论点是建立在一个谬误之上的，

the false cause fallacy. 文化背景

即错误归因谬误。

Correlation does not imply causation. 表達脈絡

相关性不代表因果关系。

When two phenomena regularly occur together, 語法

当两个现象经常一起发生时，

one does not necessarily cause the other.

一个并不一定导致另一个。

So you say women who have inflammation

所以你说有炎症的女性

also come down with childbed fever. 短語動詞

也会得产褥热。

Therefore, the inflammation caused the fever. 表達脈絡

因此，炎症导致了发烧。

But that's not necessarily true. 短語搭配

但这未必是真的。

Yes, yes, the inflammation comes first,

是的，是的，炎症先发生，

then the fever,

接着是发烧，

so it seems like the inflammation causes the fever. 短語搭配

所以看起来好像是炎症引起了发烧。

But by that logic, 表達脈絡

但是按照这个逻辑，

since babies usually grow hair before teeth, 表達脈絡

既然婴儿通常先长头发后长牙齿，

hair growth must cause tooth growth.

那么长头发就一定导致了长牙齿。

And we all know that's not true, right? 語氣意圖

我们都知道这不是真的，对吧？

Actually, don't answer that.

算了，别回答了。

A couple of different things could be going on here. 短語搭配

这里可能有几种不同的情况。

First, it's possible that fever and inflammation

首先，发烧和炎症

are correlated purely by coincidence. 短語搭配

可能纯粹是巧合相关。

Or there could be a causal relationship

或者可能存在一种与你所想相反的

that's the opposite of what you think. The fever causes the inflammation

因果关系。是发烧引起了炎症，

rather than the inflammation causing the fever. 語法

而不是炎症引起了发烧。

Or both could share a common underlying cause 短語搭配

或者两者都有一个共同的根本原因，

you haven't thought of.

而你没有想到。

If I may, 語氣意圖

如果可以的话，

just what do you think causes inflammation? 語氣意圖

你觉得究竟是什么引起了炎症呢？

Hmm, nothing?

呃，没有原因？

It just is. 語氣意圖

就只是这样。

Really?

真的吗？

Humor me for a moment in discussing one of your colleague's ideas. 習語

配合我一下，我们来讨论一下你同事的想法。

Dr. Oliver Wendell Holmes.

奥利弗·温德尔·霍姆斯医生。

I know, I know you don't like his theory.

我知道，我知道你不喜欢他的理论。

You already wrote a scathing letter about it. 用詞

你已经写过一封严厉的信批评它了。

But let's fill your students in, shall we? 講解

但让我们给你的学生们普及一下，好吗？

Holmes noticed a pattern.

霍姆斯注意到了一个规律。

When a patient dies of childbed fever,

当有病人死于产褥热时，

a doctor performs an autopsy. 短語搭配

医生会进行尸检。

If the doctor then treats a new patient,

如果该医生随后治疗新病人，

that patient often comes down with the fever.

那个病人通常也会得产褥热。

Based on this correlation between autopsies of fever victims 表達脈絡

基于发热受害者尸检

and new fever patients,

和新发热病人之间的这种相关性，

he proposes a possible cause.

他提出了一个可能的原因。

Since there's no evidence that the autopsy causes the fever

因为没有证据表明尸检引起了发烧，

beyond this correlation,

除了这种相关性之外，

he doesn't jump to the conclusion that autopsy causes fever. 習語

他没有草率断定尸检引起了发烧。

Instead, he suggests that doctors are infecting their patients 表達脈絡

相反，他提出医生正在感染他们的病人，

via an invisible contaminant on their hands 用詞

通过他们手上和手术器械上

and surgical instruments.

看不见的污染物。

This idea outrages most doctors

这个想法激怒了大多数医生，

who see themselves as infallible. 用詞

他们认为自己是不可能犯错的。

Like Meigs here,

就像这里的梅格斯一样，

who refuses to consider the possibility 短語搭配

他拒绝考虑这种可能性：

that he's playing a role in his patients' plight. 短語搭配

他在病人的苦难中也扮演了某种角色。

His flawed argument doesn't leave any path forward for further investigation, 習語

他的错误论点没有为进一步调查留下任何余地，

but Holmes's does.

但霍姆斯的论点却做到了。

It's 1847 and physician Ignaz Semmelweis

现在是1847年，医生伊格纳兹·塞麦尔维斯

has reduced the number of childbed fever deaths 語法

已经将一家诊所内产褥热的死亡人数

in a clinic from 12% to 1%

从12%降到了1%，

by requiring all medical personnel to disinfect their hands 用詞

方法是要求所有医务人员

after autopsies and between patient examinations.

在尸检后和检查病人的间隙对手进行消毒。

With this initiative,

通过这一举措，

he has proven the contagious nature of childbed fever. 用詞

他证明了产褥热具有传染性。

It's 1879 and Louis Pasteur

现在是1879年，路易·巴斯德

has identified the contaminant

已经确定了引起许多产褥热病例的

responsible for many cases of childbed fever, 短語搭配

污染物，

hemolytic streptococcus bacteria. 文化背景

溶血性链球菌。

Hmm, my fries are cold.

呃，我的薯条凉了。

Must be because my ice cream melted. 語法

肯定是因为我的冰淇淋化了。

So, do you think you can do my job?

那么，你觉得你能干我的工作吗？

Let's find out, shall we?

让我们来看看吧，好吗？

Click here to see if you can outsmart this fallacy. 用詞

点击这里，看看你是否能识破这个谬误。