公共债务：多少才算过多？：英语精读讲义

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments around the world

COVID-19疫情迫使世界各国政府

to borrow and spend at an almost unprecedented rate. 短語搭配

以几乎史无前例的速度借贷和支出。

Between April and June,

在4月至6月期间，

America alone has borrowed $3 trillion,

仅美国就借贷了3万亿美元，

the largest amount borrowed in a single quarter

这是单季度借贷的最高金额

since records began. 短語搭配

创下有记录以来的新高。

The rise in public debt

公共债务的上升

has been unlike anything we've seen in recent history. 語法

与我们近代史上所见过的任何情况都不同。

In the past,

在过去，

economists have warned against high levels of borrowing.

经济学家曾警告过高水平的借贷风险。

But new thinking suggests much higher levels of debt might now be sustainable.

但新观点认为，如今更高水平的债务或许是可持续的。

The fact that there's been such a dramatic change in the consensus

共识发生了如此巨大的改变，

makes some people nervous.

这让一些人感到不安。

How much of a cause for concern 短語搭配

世界范围内不断上升的公共债务

should the world's rising public debt be?

到底有多值得担忧？

Governments have borrowed to finance their spending 用詞

几百年来，

for hundreds of years.

政府一直在通过借贷来为支出融资。

At the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815,

1815年拿破仑战争结束时，

Britain's debt was 164% of GDP.

英国的债务占GDP的164%。

And after the Second World War,

而在第二次世界大战之后，

it was even higher at 259% of GDP.

这一比例甚至更高，达到了GDP的259%。

Historically,

从历史上看，

governments have borrowed for a few main reasons.

政府借贷主要是为了几个关键原因。

Probably the biggest one was to fight wars.

最大的原因可能就是为了打仗。

But in the past 100 years or so,

但在过去大约100年里，

governments have increasingly used their debt

政府越来越多地利用债务

as a way to try to keep the economy on track. 習語

作为试图维持经济正常运转的一种方式。

To raise money,

为了筹集资金，

governments issue bonds to investors. 用詞

政府向投资者发行债券。

These are in effect IOU's that are repaid over a fixed term with interest 文化背景

这些债券实际上就是借条，在固定期限内连本带息偿还，

at a rate that depends on the length of the bond.

利率取决于债券的期限。

How desirable these bonds are to investors

这些债券对投资者的吸引力有多大

depends on the country's creditworthiness. 用詞

取决于该国的信誉度。

They tend to be very safe assets.

它们通常是非常安全的资产。

With governments

如果债务人是政府，

you can usually count on getting your money back. 短語動詞

你通常可以指望能拿回你的钱。

Once a bond has been uh sold by the government out into the market,

一旦债券被政府嗯发行到市场上，

it can be swapped and traded uh as many times as people care to. 語法

它就可以被人们随心所欲地交换和交易。

And that gives you a sense of how markets view the creditworthiness 短語搭配

这也让你能感觉到市场如何看待

uh of the government.

嗯政府的信誉。

Government bonds are bought by many different investors,

许多不同的投资者都会购买政府债券，

including pension funds,

包括养老基金、

hedge funds,

对冲基金、

banks,

银行

and individual investors.

以及个人投资者。

As well as a country's own central bank and local government.

还有该国自己的中央银行和地方政府。

Foreign governments also buy bonds.

外国政府也会购买债券。

The biggest foreign holders of America's public debt

美国公共债务最大的外国持有者

are China and Japan.

是中国和日本。

If you have a safe asset that everyone will accept like US government bonds,

如果你拥有一种大家都接受的安全资产，比如美国国债，

you can sell those bonds in a crisis,

你可以在危机时出售这些债券，

get dollars,

换取美元，

uh and then use that to make sure you don't get into trouble.

嗯然后用它来确保你不会陷入困境。

So,

所以，

there's quite a lot of potential buyers out there for government bonds,

政府债券有很多潜在的买家，

and really they could end up all over the world.

实际上它们最终可能会遍布世界各地。

Governments' willingness to issue bonds and increase public debt

政府发行债券和增加公共债务的意愿

has changed over time.

随着时间的推移发生了变化。

After the sky-high debts of the Second World War,

在经历了二战后极高的债务之后，

many governments were wary of going further into the red. 習語

许多政府对进一步陷入赤字持谨慎态度。

But they continued to borrow,

但他们继续借款，

and in the 1970s,

而在20世纪70年代，

this was blamed for high inflation.

这被认为是导致高通胀的原因。

A lot of economists spoke to governments and said,

许多经济学家对政府说：

"The reason you're facing these high rates of inflation is because you're borrowing so much.

“你们面临这么高的通胀率是因为你们借了太多的钱。

Uh it's adding too much money into the economy for the economy to easily absorb,

嗯它向经济中注入了太多的资金，超出了经济的轻易吸收能力，

and it's pushing up prices." 短語動詞

这就推高了物价。”

That really ushered in a sea change 講解

这确实开启了一场巨大的转变，

in the way that governments think about debt.

改变了政府看待债务的方式。

And so,

因此，

the use of borrowing as a macroeconomic tool

将借贷作为宏观经济工具的做法

slowly petered out until we got to the Global Financial Crisis. 短語動詞

逐渐减少，直到我们遭遇了全球金融危机。

Now,

现在，

it's official.

官方宣布了。

We are in a recession.

我们正处于经济衰退之中。

Major financial institutions have teetered on the edge of collapse, 習語

主要金融机构徘徊在崩溃的边缘，

and some have failed.

有些甚至已经倒闭。

In the rich world,

在富裕国家，

the financial crisis pushed public debt

金融危机推高了公共债务，

from 74% to around 105%

使其从74%升至约105%，

in the decade following the financial crisis.

这一变化发生在金融危机后的十年里。

And in emerging economies,

在新兴经济体中，

it rose from roughly 35% to 48% of GDP.

它从大约GDP的35%上升到48%。

This ballooning debt caused political panic,

这种激增的债务引发了政治恐慌，

with some governments pursuing strict austerity 用詞

一些政府实行了严格的紧缩政策，

to try to bring their budget deficits 短語動詞

试图在随后的十年里

down during the decade that followed.

降低预算赤字。

But it didn't go entirely to plan. 習語

但这并没有完全按计划进行。

By about 2014,

到2014年左右，

the lessons of that experiment began to be pretty clear.

那次实验的教训开始变得非常清晰。

Uh and what we learned

嗯我们学到的是，

was austerity uh in a time of economic weakness

在经济疲软时期实行紧缩，

hurts economies so much 語法

对经济的伤害太大了，

that it basically doesn't do any good.

以至于它基本上没有任何好处。

The economy becomes so weak

经济变得如此疲软，

that you're not earning enough in tax revenues

导致你获得的税收收入不足以

to make it worth it.

弥补紧缩带来的损失。

These problems with austerity led to new thinking.

紧缩政策带来的这些问题催生了新的思考。

In 2019,

在2019年，

former IMF chief economist Olivier

前国际货币基金组织首席经济学家奥利维尔·

Blanchard gave a game-changing speech. 用詞

布兰查德发表了一场改变游戏规则的演讲。

He argued governments could borrow far more than previously believed. 語法

他认为政府可以借入比以前认为的多得多的资金。

I think the fact that there's been such a dramatic change in the consensus

我认为共识发生了如此巨大的改变，

makes some people nervous.

这确实让一些人感到不安。

But at the same time,

但同时，

it wasn't a rash decision they made.

这并不是他们做出的草率决定。

It was heavily influenced

它深受

by what was going on in the world around them 短語動詞

他们周围世界正在发生的事情的影响

Blanchard observed interest rates on government bonds have been falling,

布兰查德观察到政府债券利率一直在下降，

making it cheap for some governments to borrow money. 語法

使得一些政府借钱的成本很低。

At the same time,

与此同时，

the economy was growing.

经济正在增长。

Take America.

以美国为例。

The rate of nominal GDP growth, 用詞

名义GDP的增长率，

which is GDP before it's been adjusted for inflation,

即未经过通胀调整的GDP增长率，

has generally been higher than interest rates

在过去30年中

for the past 30 years.

通常高于利率。

This matters

这很重要，

because as long as GDP is growing faster 語法

因为只要GDP的增长速度快于

than the country's debt is accumulating interest,

国家债务积累利息的速度，

and governments keep additional borrowing in check, 習語

并且政府将额外借款控制在一定范围内，

then a nation can effectively grow its way out of debt 習語

那么一个国家就可以通过增长来摆脱债务

at no fiscal cost.

而不需要付出财政代价。

Mathematically,

在数学上，

it's a very straightforward point.

这是一个非常简单直接的观点。

Um but when you're explaining this to governments and saying

嗯但是当你要向政府解释这一点，并且说

this is how it goes,

这就是实际情况时，

that ends up being quite a powerful thing.

它就变成了一件非常有影响力的事。

Not even a year after Blanchard gave his speech,

在布兰查德发表演讲还不到一年后，

coronavirus emerged in Wuhan,

冠状病毒在武汉出现，

and the greatest exercise in public borrowing

几代人以来最大规模的公共借贷行动

for generations began.

开始了。

Government borrowing hit a record £55 billion.

政府借贷达到了创纪录的550亿英镑。

Ballooning public debt,

激增的公共债务，

around $300 billion

约为3000亿美元

or 16% of GDP.

或占GDP的16%。

But not every country can borrow its way through the pandemic. 語法

但并非每个国家都能通过借贷度过这场疫情。

Almost every government has found it easier to borrow now 語法

几乎每个政府都发现现在的借款

than it was 30 or 40 years ago.

比30或40年前更容易了。

But the difference between a rich country

但富裕国家与

and a poorer country,

较贫穷国家之间的区别在于，

which doesn't have a long record of borrowing

后者没有在外国市场上

uh on foreign markets,

长期借款的记录，

those places can't get the same interest rates.

那些地方无法获得相同的利率。

It's a source of significant inequality

在各国如何面对这场疫情方面，

in terms of how countries face this pandemic,

这是一个严重不平等的问题来源，

that some places can borrow almost as much as they want

即一些地方几乎可以想借多少就借多少

to support their economies and others can't.

来支持他们的经济，而另一些地方则不能。

Borrowing on this scale

这种规模的借贷

is not without risk for anyone. 語法

对任何人来说都不是没有风险的。

You owe us a lot of money.

你们欠了我们很多钱。

What?

什么？

As there's always the threat

因为总是存在

that interest rates could rise again.

利率可能再次上升的威胁。

Economists aren't entirely sure

经济学家们并不完全确定

why these rates have been low for so long.

为什么这些利率长期以来一直处于低位。

In general,

总的来说，

interest rates on mortgages,

抵押贷款、

government bonds,

政府债券，

or savings accounts

或储蓄账户的利率

are driven by demand. 短語搭配

是由需求驱动的。

If the desire to save is high,

如果储蓄欲望很高，

then interest rates will be low

那么利率就会很低，

as banks or governments issuing bonds

因为发行债券的银行或政府

don't have to tempt investors with favorable rates.

不必用有吸引力的利率来招揽投资者。

There are several factors driving the desire to save,

有几个因素推动了储蓄欲望，

which might be keeping interest rates down.

这可能是压低利率的原因。

The aging population might be one cause,

人口老龄化可能是一个原因，

as people tend to save for retirement,

因为人们倾向于为退休存钱，

and pension funds buy government bonds.

而养老基金会购买政府债券。

And fear of global financial instability

此外，对全球金融不稳定的担忧

may also play a part,

可能也起到了一定作用，

causing investors to seek safe assets like bonds.

导致投资者寻求像债券这样的安全资产。

We can't be completely sure

我们不能完全确定

um why exactly it's happened.

嗯究竟为什么会发生这种情况。

And that matters

这很重要，

because if you can't be certain

因为如果你不能确定

why it happened in the first place, 習語

它最初为什么会发生，

um you can't say for sure

嗯你就不能断言

that it's not going to reverse itself

它不会在未来的某个时候

at some point in the future.

发生逆转。

Uh which would be a big deal,

嗯那将会是一件大事，

you know,

你要知道，

if interest rates suddenly soared,

如果利率突然飙升，

then all the countries that had accumulated a lot of debt

那么所有积累了大量债务的国家

would suddenly be in very big trouble.

就会立刻陷入巨大的麻烦。

Despite these risks,

尽管存在这些风险，

the pandemic has left many countries

疫情让许多国家

with no option but to keep borrowing. 語法

别无选择，只能继续借贷。

To cut deficit spending now

在全球经济仍受疫情重创的情况下，

while the global economy is still crippled by the pandemic,

现在削减赤字开支，

would inflict lasting damage. 短語搭配

将造成持久的损害。

But how much and how long countries can continue to borrow 語法

但各国还能继续借贷多少、借多久

is unclear.

尚不清楚。

And the colossal debt

而在过去六个月中积累起来的

built up in the past six months 短語動詞

巨额债务

will be one of the greatest legacies of the pandemic. 用詞

将是这场大流行留下的最大遗产之一。

I'm Ryan Avent,

我是瑞安·阿文特，

the Economics columnist

《经济学人》的

at The Economist.

经济专栏作家。

Uh we've written a series of articles

嗯我们写了一系列文章，

that cover the basics on a range of economic topics

涵盖了一系列经济主题的基础知识，

and how the latest thinking

以及关于它们的最新理念

about them is evolving.

是如何演变的。

You can read more at the link opposite.

您可以在对面的链接中阅读更多内容。

Thank you for watching.

感谢您的观看。