中美对决：为何贸易战不会很快结束：英语精读讲义

The world's leading superpowers are locking horns. 習語

全球领先的超级大国正在激烈交锋。

Game on here. 習語

好戏开场了。

Trade war between the United States and China is here.

中美之间的贸易战已经打响。

Over the past 16 months,

在过去的16个月里，

America and China have been trading blows through tariffs on goods. 習語

中美两国一直通过对商品加征关税进行相互打击。

We are looking at a reality that has, you know,

我们要面对的现实是，你知道，

a 25% tariff on every single product that would come in from China.

每一件来自中国的产品都将被加征25%的关税。

The impact is being felt on industries worldwide. 語法

全球各地的各个行业都感受到了这种影响。

But what is the story behind the America-China trade war? 短語搭配

但是中美贸易战背后的故事是怎样的呢？

So, the trade war,

那么，关于贸易战，

what have you guys been looking at?

你们都在关注什么呢？

The US doesn't like that China is growing so fast

美国不喜欢中国发展得如此之快，

and set to overtake uh America as like the biggest economy in the world if it hasn't already by certain 短語搭配

并即将超越呃美国成为全球最大的经济体，如果按某些

measures,

指标来看还没做到的话，

right?

对吧？

Basically,

基本上，

China and US are kind of caught in this race of imposing tariffs on each other. 習語

中美两国有点陷入了这种相互加征关税的竞赛中。

So,

所以，

US slaps a high tariff on certain products and then China retaliates. 用詞

美国对某些产品征收高额关税，然后中国进行报复。

It's multiple industries across multiple markets.

这涉及多个市场的多个行业。

It's huge.

影响是巨大的。

And I think right now it'd be a really good time to look at what's happening

我认为现在真的是一个审视正在发生的事情的好时机，

and how it could impact the world from now on. 短語搭配

以及它从现在起将如何影响世界。

At The Economist,

在《经济学人》，

we've been covering the trade war extensively.

我们一直在广泛报道这场贸易战。

Soumaya Keynes is our trade and globalization editor,

苏玛雅·凯恩斯 (Soumaya Keynes) 是我们的贸易和全球化编辑，

based in Washington DC.

驻华盛顿特区。

How did this whole trade war kick off? 短語動詞

整个贸易战是如何爆发的？

How did this whole trade war start?

整个贸易战是如何开始的？

For a long time,

很长一段时间以来，

there have been frustrations that past American administrations had with the Chinese.

美国历届政府对中国都抱有挫败感。

On the 2016 presidential campaign trail, 文化背景

在2016年总统竞选期间，

you started to see some really tough rhetoric. 短語搭配

你开始听到一些非常强硬的言辞。

We can't continue to allow China to rape our country, 用詞

我们不能继续任由中国强暴我们的国家，

and that's what they're doing.

而这正是他们正在做的事。

And so he gets into office, 用詞

于是他上任后，

his United States trade representative, 文化背景

他的美国贸易代表，

that's the kind of official trade negotiator,

也就是那种官方的贸易谈判代表，

they're working on this big report.

他们正在编写这份重要报告。

So,

所以，

they're essentially investigating China's economic practices.

他们实际上是在调查中国的经济实践。

Essentially,

从本质上讲，

the question they're asking is,

他们提出的问题是，

has China done anything that would frustrate America's economic interests? 用詞

中国是否做了任何会损害美国经济利益的事情？

And they find,

然后他们发现，

surprise surprise, 語氣意圖

毫不意外，

yes.

是的。

How long a history is there of uh these complaints the US has about China?

呃美国对中国的这些抱怨有多长的历史了？

These concerns go back for a really long time,

这些担忧由来已久，

and I think to understand them properly,

我认为为了正确理解它们，

you really need to go way back to the expectations that people had when China was thinking about entering the World Trade Organization. 講解

你真的需要追溯到人们在中国考虑加入世界贸易组织时所抱有的期望。

China's economic rise has been dramatic.

中国的经济崛起是惊人的。

In 1978,

在1978年，

China's GDP at market prices was just 6% of America's.

按市场价格计算，中国的GDP仅为美国的6%。

Last year,

去年，

it had grown to 66%.

它已经增长到了66%。

When considering local spending power,

如果考虑到当地的消费能力，

China has already overtaken America.

中国已经超越了美国。

This unprecedented growth began with Deng Xiaoping.

这种史无前例的增长始于邓小平。

He started opening up China's economy to the world in 1978, 短語動詞

他在1978年开始向世界开放中国经济，

and the country quickly became the world's factory. 習語

这个国家迅速成为了世界工厂。

Over the next decade,

在接下来的十年里，

exports as a share of GDP tripled, 用詞

出口占GDP的比例增加了两倍，

and by 1988,

到1988年，

15% of China's exports went to America.

中国15%的出口流向了美国。

The World Trade Organization opened its doors to China in 2001, 習語

世界贸易组织在2001年向中国敞开了大门，

and it was America that ushered it in. 講解

而正是美国将其引进了门。

Bringing China into the WTO is a win-win decision. 用詞

将中国引入WTO是一个双赢的决定。

It will protect our prosperity,

它将保护我们的繁荣，

and it will promote the right kind of change in China.

并促进中国发生正确的变革。

After joining the WTO,

加入WTO后，

China became an economic superpower.

中国成为了经济超级大国。

But people had expected the country to also become more like a Western capitalist economy. 語法

但人们本期望这个国家也会变得更像西方的资本主义经济体。

That didn't happen.

但这并没有发生。

America now claims that China achieved its growth by not playing fair. 習語

美国现在声称，中国是通过不公平竞争来实现其增长的。

Are those claims justified?

这些主张有道理吗？

To find out the

为了寻找

answer, I spoke with David Rennie.

答案，我采访了戴维·伦尼 (David Rennie)。

He's our Beijing bureau chief. 用詞

他是我们的北京分社社长。

There's two ways in which China certainly hasn't been playing fair.

中国肯定有两个方面没有公平竞争。

One way is just that China treats Chinese companies differently.

其中一个方面就是中国对本国公司的待遇不同。

So,

所以，

if you are a Western business,

如果你是一家西方企业，

your Chinese competitor not only has better market access, 語法

你的中国竞争对手不仅拥有更好的市场准入条件，

but maybe the land that it built its factory on was given for free,

而且可能它建厂用的土地是免费获得的，

maybe got a giant tax break. 用詞

也许还获得了巨大的税收优惠。

China just doesn't have a level playing field. 習語

中国就是没有一个公平竞争的环境。

There's then the really dirty stuff,

然后是真正肮脏的手段，

stealing foreign companies technology.

窃取外国公司的技术。

If you ask Chinese officials about the accusation that China is stealing its way to the top, 語法

如果你向中国官员询问关于中国靠窃取爬上顶峰的指控，

they will say,

他们会说，

"Well, hang on, 語氣意圖

“好吧，等一下，

America steals secrets too.

美国也窃取机密。

So,

那么，

why are you coming after us?" 短語動詞

你们为什么还要针对我们？”

The American government will tell you,

美国政府会告诉你，

"Sure,

“没错，

they spy and they steal stuff,

他们从事间谍活动，他们窃取东西，

but never for commercial purposes." 短語搭配

但这绝对不是为了商业目的。”

With Donald Trump's election in 2016,

随着唐纳德·特朗普在2016年当选，

you had a president who actually set about getting tough with China once he was in office, 講解

你看到了一位真正在上任后着手对中国采取强硬态度的总统，

and we'd never really had that before.

而这是我们以前从未真正有过的。

The Trump administration has been using tariffs,

特朗普政府一直在利用关税，

or taxes on imported goods,

即对进口商品征税，

to try to force the Chinese to change their ways. 習語

来试图迫使中国人改变他们的做法。

In July 2018,

2018年7月，

America imposed tariffs of 25% on $34 billion worth of Chinese products. 短語搭配

美国对价值340亿美元的中国产品加征了25%的关税。

That almost doubled the average tariff rate on Chinese imports,

这几乎让对中国进口商品的平均关税率翻了一番，

from 3.8% to 6.7%.

从3.8%提高到了6.7%。

And it's American firms that have to pay that tax. 語法

而必须支付这笔税款的是美国公司。

But with every increase from America, 語法

但随着美国的每一次加征，

came an increase from China.

中国也随之加征。

Since the start of the trade war,

自贸易战爆发以来，

China has more than doubled its average tariff rate.

中国已将其平均关税率提高了一倍多。

America's has tripled.

美国的关税率则增加了两倍。

The fight has become overtly political

这场斗争已经变得具有明显的政治色彩，

because China's tariffs are hitting President Trump's voter base. 用詞

因为中国的关税正在打击特朗普总统的选民基础。

Many counties where Trump won in the 2016 election

在2016年大选中特朗普获胜的许多县

were here in the Great Plains. 文化背景

都在大平原地区。

And these are the counties most affected by China's tariffs.

而这些正是受中国关税影响最严重的县。

Someone who knows all about the impact tariffs are having beyond the data

一位对关税在数据之外所产生的影响了如指掌的人，

is Chad Bown from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

是来自彼得森国际经济研究所的查德·鲍恩 (Chad Bown)。

He's been analyzing international trade for decades,

几十年来，他一直在分析国际贸易，

but the trade war has put his research in the spotlight. 習語

但这场贸易战让他的研究成为了聚光灯下的焦点。

Some people have referred to it as my World Cup or my Super Bowl. 文化背景

有些人称它为我的世界杯或我的超级碗。

It's something that I've been studying in the background for 20 years,

这是我在幕后研究了20年的课题，

and now all of a sudden the world seems to be interested in this. 短語搭配

现在全世界突然似乎都对此感兴趣了。

What role do tariffs play in a trade war? 短語搭配

关税在贸易战中扮演什么角色？

Tariffs are basically a tax, 文化背景

关税基本上就是一种税，

but it's a tax that's only paid for goods that are produced outside of the country in a specific place.

但它是一种仅对在特定地点、在国外生产的商品征收的税。

One of the things that China has done in its tariffs

中国在其关税政策中所做的一件事就是，

is it's imposed really high tariffs on American exports of soybeans.

对美国大豆出口征收极高的关税。

This is a huge product that farmers in Iowa and across the Midwest grow only to sell to China. 語法

这是一个巨大的产品，爱荷华州和整个中西部的农民种植它只为了卖给中国。

So,

那么，

how are these tariffs and the trade war impacting the wider world economy?

这些关税和贸易战如何影响更广泛的世界经济呢？

I think at some level, 短語搭配

我认为在某种程度上，

we're seeing uh the decisions that businesses make be affected by this.

我们看到呃企业的决策因此受到了影响。

Nowadays,

如今，

they're not sure what markets are going to be open to them in the future, 用詞

他们不确定未来会有哪些市场向他们开放，

and that's going to impact their investment decisions.

而这将影响他们的投资决策。

The International Monetary Fund, 文化背景

国际货币基金组织，

the IMF,

即IMF，

they expect economic growth to be a lot lower um in the future because of the tensions arising during the trade war.

他们预计未来的经济增长会低得多，呃，因为贸易战期间产生的紧张局势。

The global economy is slowing down,

全球经济正在放缓，

uh and everybody's increasingly concerned about that.

呃而且每个人都越来越担心这一点。

As things stand now, 短語搭配

就目前情况来看，

a cease-fire in the trade war could be drawing near. 講解

贸易战的停火可能正在临近。

The two leaders are hoping to agree on a phase one deal soon, 用詞

两国领导人希望尽快达成第一阶段协议，

which could mean some tariffs being lifted. 用詞

这可能意味着部分关税将被取消。

The Trump administration wants China to buy more American produce and tighten up their intellectual property rules. 短語動詞

特朗普政府希望中国购买更多美国农产品，并收紧他们的知识产权规则。

If that phase one deal is signed,

如果签署了第一阶段协议，

will it be the beginning of the end of the trade war? 習語

这将是贸易战结束的开始吗？

I took that question back to Soumaya. 短語搭配

我把这个问题带回给了苏玛雅。

The Americans are hugely ambitious for the kinds of changes that they would want from the Chinese,

美国人对于他们希望中国人做出哪种改变有着极大的野心，

but those ambitions,

但这些野心，

I don't think will be reflected in the preliminary phase one deal. 短語搭配

我不认为会反映在初步的第一阶段协议中。

The Chinese government wants its economy to do well and wants its citizens to get richer.

中国政府希望其经济运行良好，并希望其公民变得更富裕。

To the extent that the Americans persist in demanding these big changes to the Chinese economy, 講解

如果美国人坚持要求对中国经济进行这些重大改变，

it's going to be really difficult to get a deal.

达成协议将会非常困难。

Even if there is a phase one deal, 語法

即使达成第一阶段协议，

there will be a lot of issues still to be resolved. 語法

也仍将有许多问题需要解决。

But there's more to the trade war than just tariffs. 語法

但贸易战不仅仅只有关税。

America has also imposed restrictions on some Chinese firms, 短語搭配

美国还对一些中国企业实施了限制，

especially ones in the tech industry.

尤其是科技行业的企业。

We cannot allow any other country to outcompete the United States in this powerful industry of the future.

我们不能允许任何其他国家在这个强大的未来行业中超越美国。

Specifically over one Chinese company.

尤其是针对一家中国公司。

Huawei can offer cheaper prices because they are heavily subsidized by the Chinese government. 用詞

华为能够提供更低的价格，因为他们得到了中国政府的大量补贴。

We've made another film that looks closely at Huawei and why the West is worried about it.

我们制作了另一部电影，仔细探讨了华为以及西方为何对其感到担忧。

It includes a rare interview with Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei.

其中包含了对华为首席执行官任正非的罕见采访。

And we looked into how these tensions will impact American industries already dependent on Huawei technology. 短語動詞

我们还研究了这些紧张局势将如何影响已经依赖华为技术的美国产业。

The biggest issue, 表達脈絡

最大的问题，

I think,

我认为，

with all of this political turmoil surrounding the Huawei name is uncertainty.

伴随围绕华为这个名字的所有政治动荡而来的，是不确定性。

You can watch the Huawei film right now by clicking on the link opposite.

你现在就可以通过点击对面的链接来观看这部关于华为的电影。

And if you want to learn more about the trade war,

如果你想了解更多关于贸易战的信息，

you can click the other link where you'll find uh all the research we used to make this film,

你可以点击另一个链接，在那里你会找到呃我们用来制作这部电影的所有研究资料，

as well as other articles we've written,

以及我们写过的其他文章，

including a special report by David Rennie.

包括戴维·伦尼撰写的一份特别报告。

As always,

一如既往，

if you liked what you saw,

如果你喜欢你所看到的内容，

hit that subscribe button.

请点击那个订阅按钮。