如果美国停止偿还债务会发生什么？：英语精读讲义

The United States has more than $21 trillion in national debt.

美国的国债超过了21万亿美元。

Let's try and wrap our heads around just how much money that is. 習語

让我们试着理解一下这笔钱到底有多少。

Firstly, what's a trillion?

首先，什么是万亿？

A trillion is 1,000 billion or one followed by 12 zeros.

一万亿等于一千个十亿，即1后面跟着12个零。

That's a big number, so let's break it down. 短語動詞

这是一个很大的数字，让我们来分解一下。

If we assume you are a millionaire and you have all your money in $1,000 bills,

假设你是个百万富翁，所有的钱都是1000美元的面额，

that's 1,000 of them to make up your million. 短語動詞

那么1000张这样的钞票就能凑成你的一百万。

And if you stack the bills on top of each other,

如果你把这些钞票叠在一起，

that stack would be just over 4 in high.

这叠钞票大概只有4英寸多高。

You'd be pretty happy.

你会觉得相当开心。

Now let's say you had a thousand of those stacks making you a billionaire. 表達脈絡

现在假设你有1000叠这样的钞票，让你成为亿万（十亿）富翁。

The cash would now be 358 ft tall,

这些现金现在将高达358英尺，

which is roughly the height of a 35-story building.

大约是一栋35层楼高建筑的高度。

And what if you had a thousand of those stacks making you a trillionaire?

那么如果你有1000叠这样的钞票，让你成为万亿富翁呢？

Well, then your cash stack would be 67.9 mi high,

那么你的现金堆将高达67.9英里，

which is more than nine times the height that a commercial airline flies. 語法

这超过了商业客机飞行高度的九倍。

Now, that's just $1 trillion,

而这仅仅是1万亿美元，

and the US debt is a cool 21 trillion. 用詞

美国的债务却高达惊人的21万亿。

In today's episode of The Infographics Show,

在今天的《The Infographics Show》节目中，

we're going to be looking at what would happen if the US defaulted on its debt. 語法

我们将探讨如果美国发生债务违约会发生什么。

You don't just wake up one day and find yourself owing a stack of money that would stretch to the moon. 語法

你不会有一天醒来，突然发现自己欠下了一堆能延伸到月球的钱。

It takes a lot of spending.

这需要花费大量的资金。

50 years ago, the US national debt was around $350 billion,

50年前，美国国债约为3500亿美元，

and the $1 trillion milestone was not reached until the early 1980s. 語法

而直到1980年代初才达到1万亿美元的里程碑。

But that's still a big jump to arrive at today's $21 trillion.

但要达到今天的21万亿美元，这仍是一个巨大的跨越。

With big tax cuts, spending on things such as war,

随着大规模减税、对战争等项目的支出，

and then with economic stimulus packages, it all adds up. 短語動詞

再加上经济刺激方案，这一切不断累积。

The debt rises because if the US government spends more money than it collects in taxes, 語法

债务增加是因为如果美国政府花掉的钱比收到的税款多，

then it needs to make up the shortfall by selling US Treasury bonds to investors. 講解

那么它就需要通过向投资者出售美国国债来弥补资金缺口。

These investors are typically other countries.

这些投资者通常是其他国家。

So, what's defaulting all about?

那么，什么是违约呢？

When a country defaults on its debt, 用詞

当一个国家未能偿还其债务时，

it's called a sovereign default.

这被称为主权违约。

If the US were to default, 語法

如果美国违约，

it would essentially stop paying the money it owed to the investors of the US Treasury bonds.

它本质上将停止向美国国债的投资者偿还其所欠的资金。

There's a lot of speculation online about what would happen if the US stopped making these payments,

网络上有许多关于如果美国停止支付这些款项会发生什么的猜测，

and though many of the major media outlets have run features exploring this question, 短語搭配

尽管许多主流媒体已经做过专题报道来探讨这个问题，

no one really knows exactly what would take place.

但没有人真正确切知道会发生什么。

The general consensus is that the world markets would plunge 短語搭配

普遍的共识是全球市场将暴跌，

and global interest rates would be considerably hitched up.

且全球利率将大幅攀升。

And of course, the impact would be felt by the US creditors,

当然，美国的债权国将会感受到这种冲击，

those other countries who are owed the money. 語法

也就是那些美国欠他们钱的其他国家。

Let's take a look at five potential knock-on effects 用詞

让我们来看看五个潜在的连锁反应，

that would occur as a result of the US defaulting on its debt. 短語搭配

这些反应将会因为美国债务违约而发生。

Depression and unemployment.

经济萧条与失业。

The Treasury and Federal Reserve would make their way through banks

美国财政部和美联储的影响将波及各大银行，

and eventually blow a hole through the Main Street economy. 習語

并最终对实体经济造成重创。

The unemployment rate would rise and huge amounts of uncertainty would take center stage. 習語

失业率将会上升，而巨大的不确定性将占据主导地位。

The stock market would suffer with stock prices falling

股市将会遭受重创，股价下跌，

as investors fled to other countries for safer stock or gold investments.

因为投资者将逃往其他国家寻求更安全的股票或黄金投资。

Recession would be on the economic horizon. 習語

经济衰退将迫在眉睫。

Public service disruption.

公共服务中断。

There would be no money to pay salaries or benefits

将没有资金来支付薪水或福利，

for federal or military personnel and retirees,

包括联邦或军事人员以及退休人员、

Social Security recipients, Medicare bills, student loans,

社会安全福利领取者、医疗保险账单、学生贷款、

tax refunds, and payments to keep government facilities open.

退税，以及维持政府设施开放的付款。

The result would create a great deal of disruption and unrest across the American public.

其结果将在全美民众中造成极大的混乱与动荡。

Effect on business.

对企业的影响。

A US debt default would significantly raise the cost of doing business. 短語搭配

美国债务违约将显著提高企业的运营成本。

Companies would have to pay higher interest rates on loans and bonds

企业将不得不支付更高的贷款和债券利率，

to compete with the higher interest rates of the US Treasury.

以便与美国国债较高的利率竞争。

There would be price increases on goods and services and rising inflation.

商品和服务将会涨价，通货膨胀加剧。

Business would suffer, and as a result, there would be higher unemployment.

企业将遭受打击，结果将导致更高的失业率。

US dollar impact.

对美元的冲击。

There would be mass selling of the US dollar,

市场将会大量抛售美元，

an event that would threaten the greenback status as the world's reserve currency. 用詞

这一事件将威胁到美元作为世界储备货币的地位。

Prices for everyday commodities would go up.

日常生活用品的价格将会上涨。

Our groceries, clothes, and fuel all would rise.

我们的食品杂货、衣服和燃料都会涨价。

And we'd be saying goodbye to low mortgage rates. 習語

我们将不得不向低迷的抵押贷款利率说再见。

All of this would affect buying patterns, which again would further impact the economy.

这一切都会影响消费模式，进而再次对经济造成更深的冲击。

Global markets impacted.

冲击全球市场。

The US economy has far-reaching impact, 短語搭配

美国经济的影响力深远，

so it would not only be the homeland where the effects would be felt.

因此受到冲击的不仅仅是美国本土。

According to CNN Money, who referenced Treasury numbers in a 2016 feature,

根据CNN Money在2016年一篇专题报道中引用的美国财政部数据，

foreign nations hold just over 32% of the US debt.

外国持有美国债务的比例略高于32%。

The list is long, but China and Japan stand out with over 50% of the 32%. 短語動詞

这个名单很长，但中国和日本最为突出，占了这32%中的50%以上。

As an example, Japan owns about $1.14 trillion.

举例来说，日本持有约1.14万亿美元。

This is equivalent to 20% of its annual economic output 短語搭配

这相当于其年度经济产出的20%，

and would shake the Japanese economy for sure.

并且肯定会震撼日本经济。

This speculation is all fascinating, we hear you say, but do we have anything to base the assumptions on? 講解

你可能会说这些猜测都很迷人，但我们有什么依据来支持这些假设吗？

Let's look at a real example in another country.

让我们来看看另一个国家的真实案例。

The most recent debt crisis was in Greece in 2015.

最近一次的债务危机是2015年的希腊。

The country formally defaulted on a 1.7 billion dollar payment to the International Monetary Fund in Athens.

该国正式拖欠了向位于雅典的国际货币基金组织支付的17亿美元款项。

Nowhere near a trillion, but it was still hugely disruptive to this Balkan tourist destination. 短語搭配

虽然远不及一万亿美元，但它对这个巴尔干半岛旅游胜地仍然造成了巨大的破坏。

The Guardian ran an article last year looking at the effects of the Greek default.

《卫报》去年发表了一篇文章，探讨希腊违约的影响。

They referenced the study by the Dianeosis think tank, 用詞

他们引用了Dianeosis智库的研究，

which found that in 2015, 15% of the population,

该研究发现在2015年，15%的人口，

or 1.6 million people, earned below the extreme poverty threshold,

也就是160万人，收入低于极度贫困线，

when six years previously in 2009, that number did not exceed 2.2%. 用詞

而在六年前的2009年，这个数字还不超过2.2%。

And according to the Bank of Greece, the net wealth of Greek households fell by a staggering 40% in the same period. 講解

根据希腊银行的数据，希腊家庭的净资产在同一时期下降了惊人的40%。

Though unemployment has recently dropped, 語法

尽管最近失业率有所下降，

it is still the highest in the European Union at 22%.

但仍高达22%，是欧盟中最高的。

What did this mean to an everyday Greek person?

这对一个普通的希腊人意味着什么呢？

One example is Chrisa Christodoulaki, a French-trained hairdresser who had paid into a pension fund for almost 45 years. 短語動詞

一个例子是Chrisa Christodoulaki，一位受过法国培训的美发师，她已经缴纳了近45年的养老金。

Her pension started out at 1,750 Euros a month, 短語動詞

她的养老金最初是每月1750欧元，

then it was cut to 1,430 Euros a month, 表達脈絡

然后被削减到每月1430欧元，

and then cut again to 960 Euros a month.

之后又再次被削减到每月960欧元。

It's not a pretty picture, but then how realistic is the prospect of the US defaulting on its debt? 講解

这绝不是一幅美好的画面，那么美国债务违约的前景有多真实呢？

From everything we researched, it certainly seems highly unlikely. 講解

从我们研究的一切来看，这似乎非常不可能发生。

One reason is that all US government debt is denominated in US dollar assets. 用詞

一个原因是，所有美国政府的债务都是以美元资产计价的。

But a more intriguing reason the US would apparently never default,

但美国显然永远不会违约的一个更引人入胜的原因，

in the words of Alan Greenspan, 表達脈絡

用艾伦·格林斯潘的话来说，

an American economist who served as chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States from 1987 to 2006,

他是一位美国经济学家，曾于1987年至2006年担任美联储主席，

is that the United States can pay any debt it has because it can always print money to do that.

那就是美国可以偿还任何它所欠的债务，因为它总是可以通过印钞票来做到这一点。

So, there is zero probability of default.

因此，违约的概率为零。

We're not entirely sure how true that is, but it's certainly an interesting idea to consider. 語氣意圖

我们不完全确定这有多真实，但这无疑是一个值得思考的有趣观点。

So, what do you think would happen if the US defaulted on its debt?

那么，你认为如果美国债务违约会发生什么事呢？

War?

战争？

Famine?

饥荒？

The apocalypse?

世界末日？

Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

请在评论区告诉我们你的想法。

Also, be sure to check out our other video called How is life different for billionaires?

此外，请务必观看我们的另一个视频，名为《亿万富翁的生活有何不同？》

Thanks for watching, and as always, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe.

感谢您的收看，一如既往，别忘了点赞、分享和订阅。

See you next time.

我们下次见。