战争正在消失的三大原因：英语精读讲义

So if you read the headlines,

所以，如果你读了那些新闻标题，

it kind of seems like the world is a terrible place 語氣意圖

你可能会觉得这个世界糟透了，

full of violence, despair, and war.

到处都是暴力、绝望和战争。

But it turns out 表達脈絡

但事实却是，

war is actually declining.

战争其实正在减少。

We live in the most peaceful time

我们正生活在人类历史上

in human history.

最和平的时代。

There's lots of reasons why, 用詞

这背后有很多原因，

but here's three of the biggest ones.

但这里要讲其中最重要的三个。

First, the spread of democracy around the world.

第一，民主制度在全球的普及。

International relations scholars have found consistently

国际关系学者一再发现，

that democracies don't fight wars with each other.

民主国家之间不会相互开战。

Now, why is that true?

那么，为什么会这样呢？

There might be plenty of reasons,

原因可能有很多，

but one big one is that people who live in democracies 表達脈絡

但一个重要原因是，生活在民主国家的人

think it's wrong to start wars with other democracies.

认为对其他民主国家发动战争是不对的。

They're legitimate governments.

这些都是合法政府。

It's wrong to attack them.

攻击它们是不对的。

But there's a flip side to this. 習語

但这也有另一面。

Democracies do often fight wars with autocracies. 語法

民主国家确实经常与专制国家开战。

Luckily, most of the world's countries are democracies now.

幸运的是，如今世界上大多数国家都是民主国家。

So the democratic peace is probably making the world a much more peaceful place. 語法

所以，民主国家间的和平很可能正让世界变得和平得多。

Second big reason why war is declining is nuclear deterrence. 用詞

战争正在减少的第二大原因是核威慑。

Nuclear weapons obviously big and scary.

核武器显然威力巨大，也令人恐惧。

However, nuclear deterrence may have prevented a devastating war 語法

然而，核威慑可能阻止了一场毁灭性战争

between the United States and the Soviet Union. 文化背景

在美国和苏联之间爆发。

Everyone recognized that they would lose.

所有人都意识到，自己会输。

Statistical evidence suggests that that is true, 表達脈絡

统计证据表明，这确实如此，

that is that most countries 表達脈絡

也就是说，大多数国家

are too scared of the consequences 語法

都太害怕核战争的后果，

of nuclear war to fight one.

因而不敢发动核战争。

There's a dark side and not just the risk 習語

这也有黑暗的一面，而且问题不只是

of global annihilation from an accident.

意外导致全球毁灭的风险。

If a country gets nuclear weapons,

如果一个国家拥有了核武器，

they feel rather safer 用詞

它就会觉得更有安全感，

in being aggressive in little ways,

敢于采取一些小规模的侵略行动，

you know, small conflicts or bullying

比如挑起小规模冲突，或欺凌

around their non-nuclear neighbors.

周边那些没有核武器的邻国。

This weird paradox that nuclear weapons

核武器会造成这样一种奇怪的悖论：

make the world more violent and 表達脈絡

它让世界变得更加暴力，

more peaceful at the same time

同时也变得更加和平，

is called the stability-instability paradox. 用詞

这被称为“稳定—不稳定悖论”。

The third reason that war's declined

战争减少的第三个原因，

has been the spread of the idea of national sovereignty. 用詞

是国家主权观念的普及。

This idea is hundreds of years old,

这一观念已有数百年历史，

the idea that you shouldn't interfere

它主张一个国家不应干涉

inside the borders of another state.

另一个国家边界之内的事务。

But people didn't take the idea too seriously 短語搭配

但过去人们并不太把这一观念当回事，

because stealing new land used to be 語法

因为抢夺新的领土曾经是

a major cause of war.

引发战争的一个主要原因。

Think of American and European colonialism 表達脈絡

想想美国和欧洲的殖民主义，

or World War II.

或者第二次世界大战。

But after World War II,

但在第二次世界大战之后，

nations pledged to stop. 用詞

各国承诺不再这样做。

Since 1976, there hasn't been a single successful war of conquest 講解

自1976年以来，没有任何一场征服战争取得成功，

except for maybe Russia in Crimea really recently.

或许最近俄罗斯在克里米亚的行动算是例外。

Again, though, sovereignty has a flip side.

不过，主权同样也有另一面。

Sometimes governments go to war against their own people, 短語搭配

有时，政府会向本国人民开战，

and poor weak governments often collapse into civil war. 短語搭配

而贫穷、弱小的政府往往会垮台，国家随之陷入内战。

Sovereignty makes it hard for the international community 語法

主权原则让国际社会很难

to intervene to stop either of those kinds of wars.

介入并制止这两类战争中的任何一种。

But on the whole, 表達脈絡

但总体而言，

when you see those terrible headlines,

当你看到那些骇人的新闻标题时，

remember the world's way better off than it ever has been. 用詞

请记住，如今的世界比以往任何时候都好得多。

There's less war and less violence

战争和暴力的数量

than almost any other time in human history.

都少于人类历史上几乎任何其他时期。

That's something worth celebrating. 語法

这值得我们庆祝。