人口过剩与非洲：英语精读讲义

For most of our history, 短語搭配

在我们历史的大部分时间里，

the human population grew slowly

人口增长非常缓慢，

until new discoveries brought us more food

直到新发现为我们带来了更多的食物，

and made us live longer. 語法

并让我们活得更长久。

In just 100 years, 短語搭配

短短 100 年间，

the human population quadrupled.

全球人口翻了两番。

This led to apocalyptic visions 習語

这引发了如同世界末日般的景象，

of an overcrowded Earth.

人们担忧地球将人满为患。

But the population growth rate

但人口增长率

actually peaked in the 1960s.

实际上在 20 世纪 60 年代就达到了顶峰。

Since then, 表達脈絡

从那时起，

fertility rates have crashed 習語

生育率暴跌，

as countries industrialize and develop.

随着各国的工业化和发展。

The world population is now expected to balance out 短語動詞

如今世界人口预计将趋于平衡，

at around 11 billion by the end of the century.

在本世纪末达到约 110 亿。

But the big picture conceals the details. 習語

但宏观画面掩盖了细节。

Let's look at one region in particular, 短語搭配

让我们特别关注一个地区，

Sub-Saharan Africa.

撒哈拉以南非洲。

In 2019,

在 2019 年，

it was home to a billion people 短語搭配

这里拥有 10 亿人口，

living in 46 countries.

居住在 46 个国家。

Although its growth rate has slowed down in the last few decades, 短語動詞

尽管在过去几十年里其增长率有所放缓，

it's still much higher than in the rest of the world.

但仍远高于世界其他地区。

While some projections expect around 2.6 billion people, 語法

尽管一些预测认为会达到约 26 亿人，

others reckon with up to 5 billion

另一些则估计多达 50 亿人，

by 2100.

到了 2100 年。

Such growth would be a huge challenge for any society,

这样的增长对任何社会来说都将是巨大的挑战，

but Sub-Saharan Africa is also the poorest region on Earth.

而且撒哈拉以南非洲还是地球上最贫穷的地区。

So is Sub-Saharan Africa doomed?

那么，撒哈拉以南非洲注定要完蛋了吗？

And why did the projections vary 短語搭配

为什么预测的人数会相差

by 2.4 billion people?

24 亿人之多？

As always, 表達脈絡

像往常一样，

it's complicated.

事情很复杂。

Sub-Saharan Africa is a made-up idea 用詞

撒哈拉以南非洲是一个虚构的概念，

and in many ways, unhelpful one.

而且在很多方面毫无帮助。

Botswana is as far away from Sierra Leone 語法

博茨瓦纳离塞拉利昂有多远

as Ireland is from Kazakhstan,

就像爱尔兰离哈萨克斯坦一样远，

and they have about as much in common. 短語搭配

它们之间的共同点也差不多。

But without generalizing a little bit, 語法

但如果不稍微概括一下，

this video would be an hour long.

这个视频就会长达一个小时。

We've also talked to many different scientists

我们也和许多不同的科学家交谈过

for this video

为了这个视频，

and they disagreed on a lot of things. 短語搭配

但他们在很多事情上意见不一。

Mainly on how much fertility matters to poverty.

主要是关于生育率对贫困的影响有多大。

We've done our best to summarize our research and what they told us, 短語搭配

我们已尽力总结我们的研究和他们告诉我们的内容，

but take it with a grain of salt 習語

但请保持独立思考，

and check out our sources 短語動詞

看看我们的参考资料，

where we discussed in more detail.

我们在那里进行了更详细的讨论。

Okay,

好了，

let's zoom out to the global perspective again. 表達脈絡

让我们再次将视野拉回到全球。

A few decades ago,

几十年前，

many countries in Asia were at a similar point 短語搭配

亚洲许多国家也处于相似的阶段，

to Sub-Saharan Africa today.

就如同今天的撒哈拉以南非洲一样。

Large parts of the population were living in extreme poverty 短語搭配

大部分人口生活在极度贫困中，

and birth rates were very high.

而且出生率非常高。

Take Bangladesh. 表達脈絡

以孟加拉国为例。

In the 1960s,

在 20 世纪 60 年代，

the average woman had seven children in her lifetime.

女性一生平均生育 7 个孩子。

25% of them died before they turned five

其中 25% 在五岁前夭折，

and of the ones that survived,

而在幸存的孩子中，

only one in five would learn to read and write. 用詞

只有五分之一能学会读书写字。

Life expectancy was around 45

预期寿命约为 45 岁，

and per capita income was among the lowest in the world. 用詞

人均收入更是排在世界倒数几位。

So beginning in the 1960s,

因此，从 20 世纪 60 年代开始，

Bangladesh started a family planning program

孟加拉国启动了一项计划生育项目，

based on three main pillars. 習語

基于三大支柱。

One,

第一，

education helped to change women's outlook.

教育帮助改变了女性的观念。

Women with a higher education tend to want fewer kids 語法

接受过高等教育的女性往往想要更少的孩子，

and become mothers later in life.

生育第一胎的年龄也会推迟。

Two,

第二，

better healthcare lowered child mortality,

更好的医疗降低了儿童死亡率，

leading to parents wanting fewer children 語法

使得父母倾向于要更少的孩子，

because they could expect them to survive. 語法

因为他们能预期孩子会存活下来。

Three,

第三，

field workers brought contraceptives

外勤工作人员带来了避孕用品，

even to the remotest areas,

甚至送到了最偏远的地区，

which drove contraceptive use 短語搭配

这推动了避孕普及率的提升，

from 8% in 1975

从 1975 年的 8%

to 76% in 2019.

增长到 2019 年的 76%。

Together,

综合起来，

these measures greatly slowed down population growth.

这些措施极大地减缓了人口增长。

In 1960,

1960 年，

the average Bangladeshi woman had seven kids.

孟加拉国女性平均生育 7 个孩子。

In 1995,

1995 年，

four,

是 4 个，

and in 2019,

而到了 2019 年，

it was down to two. 短語搭配

这个数字降到了 2 个。

This also changed the country's demographics and the economy.

这也改变了该国的人口结构和经济。

Before,

过去，

many children were born but died

许多孩子虽然出生却不幸夭折，

before they got to contribute to society. 語法

没能活到为社会做出贡献的时候。

As far fewer kids die and fewer kids are born, 語法

随着死亡儿童数量大减，出生人数也变少，

things change.

事情发生了改变。

Kids get an education and turn into productive adults.

孩子们接受教育，并成长为有生产力的成年人。

The government was able to shift some of their resources 短語搭配

政府得以将部分资源

from lowering child mortality to boosting the economy.

从降低儿童死亡率转移到促进经济发展上。

By 2024,

到 2024 年，

Bangladesh is expected to graduate 文化背景

孟加拉国预计将毕业，

from the category of least developed countries

从最不发达国家行列中脱颖而出，

to the status of a developing economy.

跻身为发展中经济体。

Other Asian countries like South Korea,

韩国、

India,

印度、

Thailand,

泰国、

or the Philippines

或者菲律宾等其他亚洲国家

have gone through a similar process, 短語動詞

也经历了类似的过程，

often even faster.

往往甚至更快。

Investment in health and education led to lower birth rates,

在健康和教育领域的投资导致了出生率下降，

which changed the composition of the population

这改变了人口的构成，

and enabled governments to boost the economy. 語法

并使政府能够促进经济发展。

Why didn't the same thing happen everywhere

为什么同样的事情没有在所有地方发生

in Sub-Saharan Africa?

在撒哈拉以南非洲呢？

Africa as a whole has made considerable progress 短語搭配

非洲整体已经取得了长足的进步，

with childhood mortality,

在降低儿童死亡率方面，

but especially in Sub-Saharan Africa,

但尤其是在撒哈拉以南非洲，

education has improved slower than in other parts of the world.

教育改善的速度慢于世界其他地区。

And while in total contraceptive use has doubled

虽然避孕的总体使用量已经翻倍，

in the region since 1990,

自 1990 年以来在该地区，

the unmet need for modern contraception among adolescents 用詞

但青少年对现代避孕措施的未满足需求

is still at about 60%.

仍高达约 60%。

The reasons for this are complicated

其中的原因很复杂，

and it's impossible to give a single answer here. 語法

不可能在这里给出一个单一的答案。

Africa is a big place with diverse cultures and people,

非洲幅员辽阔，文化和人民都各不相同，

but there are a few main factors.

但有几个主要因素。

Many Sub-Saharan nations have suffered under colonization

许多撒哈拉以南国家饱受殖民统治的苦难，

until only a few decades ago

直到几十年前才结束，

and had rough transition periods towards independence. 用詞

并且经历了走向独立的艰难过渡期。

The young nations were often ethnically heterogeneous 用詞

这些年轻的国家通常有着复杂的民族构成，

and lacked unity.

缺乏凝聚力。

Some areas have been repeatedly wracked by civil wars, 用詞

某些地区屡次遭受内战、

military conflicts,

军事冲突的蹂躏，

or suffered under unstable governments,

或是受苦于动荡的政府，

which made it really hard 語法

这使得扩大基础设施建设和医疗保障

to expand infrastructure and healthcare.

变得非常困难。

So Africa had a worse starting point than Asia. 習語

因此，非洲的起点比亚洲更糟。

Foreign aid and how it was applied,

外国援助及其应用方式，

especially during the Cold War,

特别是在冷战期间，

is also a contentious issue. 用詞

也是一个备受争议的问题。

But this topic is too complex to summarize in a few sentences, 語法

但这个话题太复杂了，无法用几句话总结，

so we'll make a whole video about it in the future.

所以将来我们会专门做一期视频来探讨。

And lastly,

最后，

there are cultural aspects that make talking about family plan in the context of Africa difficult.

在非洲探讨计划生育，还有文化层面的困难。

Critics say that trying to bring fertility down 短語動詞

批评者认为，试图降低生育率

is an intrusion into culture and tradition. 用詞

是对文化和传统的侵犯。

But not speaking about an issue will not help solve it. 表達脈絡

但避而不谈无助于解决问题。

Not all of these things apply to every country in the region. 語法

并非所有这些情况都适用于该地区的每一个国家。

We're talking about 46 countries,

我们讨论的可是 46 个国家，

after all, 表達脈絡

毕竟，

some of them deeply troubled, 語法

其中一些深陷困境，

others already flourishing,

另一些已经繁荣发展，

all different and facing unique problems.

它们各不相同，且面临着独特的问题。

If population growth continues at its present rate, 語法

如果人口增长以目前的速度继续下去，

then Sub-Saharan Africa could grow

那么撒哈拉以南非洲的人口可能会增长

to more than 4 billion people by 2100.

到 2100 年超过 40 亿人。

Okay,

那么，

so what can be done? 語法

有什么办法呢？

Actually,

实际上，

a lot,

能做的很多，

especially investment and aid

尤其是投资和援助，

that helped to build systems

帮助建立完善的体系

for education,

用于教育、

family planning,

计划生育，

and healthcare.

和医疗。

Surprisingly small changes

一些微小的改变

could have an extreme impact.

就能带来巨大的影响。

For example,

例如，

if women get a better education

如果女性获得更好的教育，

and have their first child just two years later in life.

仅仅将生育第一胎的年龄推迟两年。

This tiny gap between this generation and the next one

这一代与下一代之间看似微小的差距，

would lead to 400 million fewer people 語法

将会导致减少 4 亿人口

in 2100

在 2100 年，

with 3.6 billion in total.

届时总人口将为 36 亿。

If education and family planning

如果教育和计划生育

are made available to every African woman, 短語搭配

能够普及到每一位非洲女性，

universal access to contraception 用詞

全面提供避孕服务

makes having kids a decision. 語法

让生孩子成为一种选择。

If families get to choose how many kids they want, 語法

如果家庭可以选择想要多少个孩子，

birth projections fall by 30% 短語搭配

出生预测人口将下降 30%，

to 2.8 billion people.

降至 28 亿人。

This isn't just theory. 表達脈絡

这不仅仅是理论。

There are already examples that are reason for optimism.

现在已经有了让人感到乐观的先例。

Ethiopia, 語法

埃塞俄比亚，

the African country with the second biggest population,

非洲人口第二大国，

has made a lot of progress in a relatively short amount of time. 短語搭配

在相对较短的时间里取得了巨大进步。

Improving health services led to a drop in child mortality 短語搭配

医疗服务的改善使得儿童死亡率下降，

from 20% to 7% since 1990.

从 1990 年的 20% 降至 7%。

And up to 30% of the annual budget 短語搭配

年度预算中高达 30%

was invested in education

被投入到教育领域，

and the number of schools increased 25-fold 用詞

学校数量增加了 25 倍，

over two decades.

在过去的二十年里。

So summarizing,

总而言之，

there are serious challenges ahead, 短語搭配

摆在面前的挑战很严峻，

but they are far from unsolvable. 語法

但它们绝非无法解决。

Sub-Saharan Africa does not need pity or gifts, 表達脈絡

撒哈拉以南非洲不需要怜悯或施舍，

but attention and fair investment.

而是需要关注与公平的投资。

It's a region rich in resources, 短語搭配

这是一个资源丰富的地区，

culture,

拥有灿烂的文化，

and potential.

和巨大的潜力。

If things go right, 短語搭配

如果一切顺利，

we'll see a turnaround similar to the one we've seen 短語搭配

我们将看到类似于我们所见过的转机，

across most of Asia in the last 30 years.

就像过去 30 年大多数亚洲国家所经历的那样。