战争结束了吗？——解析一个悖论：英语精读讲义

Violence and war.

暴力和战争。

The insane brutality of ISIS continues.

ISIS的疯狂暴行还在继续。

The Russians are invading Ukraine

俄罗斯正在入侵乌克兰，

and the Palestinians and Israelis continue to slug it out. 習語

而巴勒斯坦人和以色列人继续着拉锯战。

Does that make you feel gloomy?

这会让你感到沮丧吗？

Well, don't, because if you look at the numbers,

嗯，大可不必，因为如果你看看这些数据，

war actually seems to be going out of fashion, 習語

战争实际上似乎正在过时，

while the global population is at an all-time high. 短語搭配

而全球人口却处于历史最高水平。

It seems that we live in the most peaceful period in human history.

看来我们生活在人类历史上最和平的时期。

How is this possible?

这怎么可能呢？

As of September 2014, 短語搭配

截至2014年9月，

there were four conflicts going on in the world

世界上有四场正在进行中的冲突，

that had caused at least 10,000 people to die since January 2013.

自2013年1月以来，它们导致了至少一万人死亡。

Nine conflicts that killed more than 1,000 people

有9场冲突导致超过1000人死亡，

and 13 that killed more than 100 since January 2013.

还有13场自2013年1月以来导致超过100人死亡。

Not really peaceful,

并不算是真正和平，

but consider this.

但考虑一下这个。

Of all the conflicts going on,

在所有正在发生的冲突中，

none is an active war between countries.

没有一场是国家之间真正意义上的战争。

They are either civil wars or local conflicts. 語法

它们要么是内战，要么是局部冲突。

Although civil wars are terrible and cause huge suffering,

尽管内战很可怕，并带来巨大的痛苦，

their impact is usually way smaller than a war between nations or empires. 語法

但它们的影响通常远小于国家或帝国之间的战争。

When two nations engage in war, 短語搭配

当两个国家交战时，

they can mobilize much bigger forces,

它们可以动员大得多的兵力，

have access to all of the state's resources and logistics, 短語搭配

可以动用国家所有的资源和后勤，

and almost all of the population.

以及几乎所有的民众。

So,

所以，

why have we transitioned from wars between nation-states 語法

为什么我们从民族国家之间的战争

to civil wars?

转变为了内战？

A lot of it is to do with colonialism and the Cold War. 短語搭配

这很大程度上与殖民主义和冷战有关。

When the Cold War ended,

冷战结束后，

a major driver of armed conflict vanished too. 用詞

武装冲突的一个主要驱动力也消失了。

But the breakup of the communist dictatorships revealed new or old tensions

但是共产主义独裁政权的解体暴露出新的或旧的紧张局势，

and brought new conflicts in the now freed states,

并在如今获得自由的国家中带来了新冲突，

which often resulted in civil war.

这往往导致内战。

Much more importantly,

更重要的是，

in 1945,

在1945年，

nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,

几乎整个非洲、大部分亚洲地区

and parts of Latin America were under colonial rule.

以及部分拉丁美洲都处于殖民统治之下。

By 1990,

到了1990年，

all but a few islands were independent. 語法

除了一些岛屿，其他都已经独立。

But wait,

但等等，

couldn't you argue that what today's multinational corporations 語氣意圖

难道不能说今天跨国公司

are doing in the Third World is just as bad as colonialism? 語法

在第三世界的所作所为和殖民主义一样糟糕吗？

Let's look at Congo.

让我们看看刚果。

It was established as a colony in 1885 by the Belgian king,

它在1885年由比利时国王确立为殖民地，

an area 80 times the size of Belgium. 語法

面积是比利时的80倍。

Violence committed against the indigenous Congolese

对刚果原住民施加的暴力

and the ruthless system of economic exploitation 用詞

以及残酷的经济剥削系统，

had killed about half of the population by 1908. 語法

在1908年前夺走了一半人口的生命。

About 10 million Congolese were executed or starved to death. 短語搭配

大约一千万刚果人被处决或饿死。

Millions were mutilated and traumatized.

数百万人被残害，身心受创。

The economic exploitation of the Congo remained the top priority

对刚果的经济剥削仍然是头等大事，

and forced labor never really ceased completely

而强迫劳动从未真正完全停止过，

until the end of Belgian rule in 1960,

直到1960年比利时统治结束，

which is not really that long ago.

那其实并没有过去太久。

So, no,

所以，不是的，

colonialism was much worse than vulture capitalism is today, 習語

殖民主义比今天的秃鹫资本主义要糟糕得多，

and it ended just two generations ago.

而它结束于仅仅两代人之前。

Most of the conflicts that are going on right now

目前正在发生的大多数冲突，

are in areas that 60 years ago were under foreign control.

都处于60年前被外国控制的地区。

But things are getting better.

但情况正在好转。

Until 1989,

直到1989年之前，

victory for one side in a civil war was common, 語法

在内战中一方取得胜利是很常见的，

while nowadays, victories are much rarer.

而如今，这种胜利要罕见得多。

At the same time,

与此同时，

negotiated endings have jumped from 10% to almost 40%. 講解

谈判结束的比例从10%跃升到了近40%。

What about the rest of the world?

那世界其他地方呢？

Why have nation-states stopped attacking each other?

为什么民族国家不再互相攻击了？

There are four major reasons. 表達脈絡

有四个主要原因。

One,

第一，

democratization.

民主化。

The steady development from autocracy to democracy. 語法

从专制到民主的稳步发展。

Democracies hardly ever fight each other. 語法

民主国家几乎从不互相开战。

Of all the state-against-state wars fought since 1900, 用詞

自1900年以来打响的所有国家间的战争中，

only a minority were fought between democracies.

只有少数是在民主国家之间发生的。

Two,

第二，

globalization.

全球化。

War is just not as effective at achieving economic goals as it used to be. 語法

在实现经济目标方面，战争已经不如过去有效了。

Today,

今天，

it's almost always cheaper to buy resources on the global market 語法

在全球市场上购买资源几乎总是比

than to seize them by force.

用武力夺取更划算。

People from other nations are more valuable to us alive than dead,

活着的他国人民比死去的对我们更有价值，

which overall is a pretty new concept. 用詞

这总体上是一个相当新的概念。

Three,

第三，

war is so 20th century. 習語

战争太20世纪了。

Until World War I,

直到第一次世界大战之前，

warfare was seen as an inevitable part of the human experience

战争一直被视为人类经验中不可避免的一部分，

and as a valuable tool,

并且作为一个有价值的工具，

which you could use to achieve goals when diplomacy hit a brick wall. 習語

在外交碰壁时，你可以用它来实现目标。

Today,

今天，

we have rules that declare acts of aggression illegal 用詞

我们有明文规定将侵略行为宣布为非法，

and stipulate that armed force is only justified in self-defense 用詞

并规定只有在自卫

or with the authority of the UN Security Council. 文化背景

或获得联合国安理会授权的情况下使用武力才是正当的。

These rules are still broken,

这些规则仍然被打破，

but today,

但今天，

it's harder to do so without sparking opposition and disapproval. 短語搭配

想要这样做而不引发反对和谴责变得更难了。

Also,

而且，

we have an international court for war crimes in the Hague, 文化背景

我们在海牙设立了国际战犯法庭，

and that's a very recent innovation.

这本身就是一项非常近期的创新。

Four,

第四，

borders are mostly fixed now.

边界现在基本固定了。

After World War II,

二战后，

territorial wars generally stopped

领土战争基本停止了，

when most countries pledged to accept international borders

因为大多数国家都承诺接受国际边界

and respect other nations' autonomy. 短語搭配

并尊重其他国家的自治权。

But is all of this just an anomaly,

但这一切都只是反常现象，

or are we on the road to lasting peace? 習語

还是我们正走在通往持久和平的道路上？

Truth is, 表達脈絡

事实是，

we don't know yet.

我们还不清楚。

We need a big enough sample to rule out the historical average, 講解

我们需要一个足够大的样本来排除历史平均值，

which is about one or two big wars per century.

即每个世纪大约发生一到两次大规模战争。

We just haven't had enough time since World War II

自二战以来，我们还没有经历足够长的时间

to rule out the possibility that war is not going away.

来排除战争并未远去的可能性。

If we don't have one major war in the next 75 years, 語法

如果在未来75年内我们没有爆发一场重大战争，

we can be really confident that humanity is changing.

我们就能真正确信人类正在改变。

So,

所以，

you see,

你看，

war might be over.

战争可能即将结束。

Yes,

没错，

there are nasty conflicts going on in many places,

许多地方仍然存在着恶劣的冲突，

but overall, things are getting better,

但总体而言，事情正在变得更好，

and we can make them even better by speaking up for peace and democracy. 短語動詞

而且我们可以通过为和平与民主发声，让事情变得更好。