谁将成为下一个超级大国？：英语精读讲义

Throughout history, superpowers have risen and fallen. 講解

纵观历史，超级大国总是起起落落。

The Roman Empire, the most dominant power in the ancient world,

罗马帝国作为古代世界最具统治力的力量，

tore across Europe and the Middle East in the 2nd century

在公元2世纪横扫了欧洲和中东，

before eventually losing grip on its territories. 習語

但最终还是失去了对其领土的控制。

Likewise, the Mongol Empire, led by Genghis Khan, 講解

同样，由成吉思汗领导的蒙古帝国，

was the world's largest land empire,

曾是世界上最大的陆地帝国，

yet after division separated in 13th century,

但在13世纪分裂瓦解后，

they finally lost their grip.

他们最终也失去了霸权。

The British Empire expanded through trading ventures

大英帝国通过商业贸易进行扩张，

and by the early 20th century had become history's largest empire 語法

到20世纪初已成为历史上最大的帝国，

covering a quarter of the world's surface

覆盖了全球四分之一的陆地面积，

with a fifth of the world's population living in it. 語法

并拥有世界上五分之一的人口。

After the Second World War,

第二次世界大战后，

the United States rose as a world superpower

美国作为一个世界超级大国崛起，

with 50% of the world's GNP, followed closely by Russia.

占据了全球国民生产总值的50%，紧随其后的是俄罗斯。

Superpowers come and go, 習語

超级大国来来去去，

but today we'll take a look into the future. 短語搭配

但今天我们要放眼未来。

In this episode of The Infographics Show,

在本期《信息图表秀》节目中，

who will be the next superpower nation?

谁将成为下一个超级大国？

With a strong national identity and a united sense of ambition,

凭借强烈的民族认同感和团结一致的雄心，

Brazil has sought to emerge as a serious global economic and political power on the world stage. 講解

巴西一直试图在世界舞台上成为一个具有重要影响力的全球经济和政治强国。

With enormous natural resources,

凭借巨大的自然资源，

including a tenth of the world's fresh water,

包括世界上十分之一的淡水资源、

the largest remaining rainforest,

现存面积最大的雨林，

and a valuable supply of minerals,

以及宝贵的矿产资源供应，

Brazil looks set to lead the way 講解

巴西似乎有望成为领头羊，

when it comes to tackling the inevitable environmental issues we all face. 短語搭配

来解决我们所有人面临的不可避免的环境问题。

However,

然而，

the apparent lack of traditional hard power in the shape of military resources 用詞

在军事资源等传统硬实力上的明显欠缺，

will undoubtedly prove a hurdle for Brazil to make a claim for world superpower status 短語搭配

无疑将成为巴西声称要成为世界超级大国的障碍，

using traditional methods of aggressive advancement.

因为他们无法使用具有攻击性扩张的传统手段。

The People's Republic of China

中华人民共和国

is a strong emerging economic and military superpower

是一个正在崛起的新兴经济和军事强国，

and the term secondary superpower has already been credited to China by scholars and media alike. 短語搭配

学术界和媒体都已经将“第二超级大国”这个词冠在了中国头上。

China does indeed have the most promising all-around profile of a potential superpower 語法

中国确实拥有成为潜在超级大国中最具前景的全方位特质，

with business ventures and investment deals in Southeast Asia,

其商业项目和投资协议遍及东南亚、

Africa, and Latin America,

非洲和拉丁美洲，

and with a degree of alienation from dominant international society

并且由于其与占主导地位的国际社会保持着一定的距离感，

making it potentially a power to challenge collective world politics. 語法

这使得它可能成为挑战集体世界政治格局的力量。

Along with the European Union and the United States,

与欧盟和美国一样，

China is a real contender,

中国是一个真正的竞争者，

particularly with its ballooning domestic economy. 習語

特别是其国内经济正在飞速膨胀。

Economist Arvind Subramanian

经济学家阿文德·苏布拉马尼安

argues that China will direct the world's financial systems by as early as 2020, 短語搭配

认为，中国最早将在2020年主导全球金融体系，

and within 20 years,

而在不到20年的时间里，

author Lawrence H. Summers states that the United States will be surpassed by China.

作家劳伦斯·H·萨默斯表示美国将会被中国超越。

Before Brexit,

在英国脱欧之前，

academics pointed fondly towards the European Union as another potential emerging superpower

学者们曾非常看好欧盟，将其视为另一个潜在的新兴超级大国，

with a large population,

凭借庞大的人口、

low inflation rates,

较低的通货膨胀率、

global unpopularity of US foreign policy,

美国外交政策在全球不受欢迎、

a large economy,

庞大的经济体量，

and a high quality of life,

以及高质量的生活水平，

the EU looked as if it had already perhaps hit the superpower stakes. 語法

欧盟看起来似乎已经拿到了成为超级大国的筹码。

Although the EU is facing a number of daunting situations, 表達脈絡

尽管欧盟正面临一些棘手的困境，

including Brexit,

包括英国脱欧，

it is still powered by a solid economic engine 習語

但它仍由一个稳固的经济引擎推动，

with the largest economy in the world.

拥有世界上最大的经济体。

In fact,

事实上，

the World Bank says that EU plus,

世界银行表示，包括挪威和瑞士在内的

including Norway and Switzerland,

‘欧盟及附加国’（EU plus），

boasts an economy larger than the US and Russia combined. 用詞

其经济规模甚至超过了美国和俄罗斯的总和。

The EU also has more Fortune 500 companies 文化背景

欧盟拥有的世界500强企业数量

than the US, India, and Russia combined,

也比美国、印度和俄罗斯的总和还要多，

and some of the most competitive national economies remain,

并且一些最具竞争力的国家经济体仍然留存，

or at least trade together,

或者至少共同开展贸易，

within the EU.

在欧盟内部。

The Republic of India is also a contender

印度共和国同样也是一个竞争者，

with Harvard economists and researchers projecting a 7% annual economic growth,

哈佛大学经济学家和研究人员预计其年经济增长率为7%，

making India the fastest growing economy in the world

这使得印度成为

in 2017.

2017年世界上增长最快的经济体。

Despite these strides forward, 表達脈絡

尽管取得了这些进步，

India still faces a rigid caste system and rural poverty, 文化背景

印度仍然面临死板的种姓制度和农村贫困、

corruption, and inequality issues.

腐败，以及不平等问题。

Politically,

在政治上，

India is stable

印度相对稳定，

with a democratic government that has lasted for 60 years. 語法

拥有一个持续了60年的民主政府。

By 2050,

到2050年，

India is set to rise by up to 20% 用詞

印度的经济有望增长高达20%，

with a young working society.

并拥有一个年轻的劳动社会。

But while India has impressive economic and population growth, 語法

但是，尽管印度拥有令人瞩目的经济和人口增长，

it also has domestic issues

它同样也存在一些国内问题，

such as malnutrition and rural poverty

比如营养不良和农村贫困等，

to tackle before tackling the political world stage.

这些都需要在它涉足政治世界舞台之前加以解决。

The Russian Federation is often suggested as a potential superpower candidate, 語法

俄罗斯联邦经常被认为是潜在的超级大国候选者，

although during the state of nation address at the Kremlin in Moscow,

尽管在莫斯科克里姆林宫发表的国情咨文中，

President Vladimir Putin

总统弗拉基米尔·普京

denied any Russian aspiration to become the next superpower. 短語搭配

否认了俄罗斯有任何成为下一个超级大国的野心。

An aging and shrinking population

老龄化和不断萎缩的人口

is constricting Russia's potential to re-emerge as a superpower once more,

正在限制俄罗斯重新成为超级大国的潜力，

despite her impressive military prowess and aggressive foreign policy. 用詞

尽管她拥有惊人的军事实力和强硬的外交政策。

However,

不过，

some argue that within the next 50 years,

也有人争论说，在未来的50年内，

national powers will lose their ability 短語搭配

国家力量将失去能力，

to operate as the superpowers they have been in the past.

无法再像过去的超级大国那样运转。

The real superpowers will be the economic elite

真正的超级大国将是那些经济精英，

who operate with no fidelity to any nation, 用詞

他们的运作不忠于任何国家、

race,

种族

or religion.

或宗教。

The economic elite superpowers

这些经济精英组成的超级大国

will operate globally

将在全球范围内运作，

from a series of outposts

凭借一系列战略性部署的

positioned strategically across the globe. 語法

全球前哨基地。

They will be transient,

他们会是不固定的流动群体，

living at times in New York 短語搭配

有时生活在纽约，

and at other times in Singapore,

有时则生活在新加坡、

Hong Kong,

香港、

London,

伦敦

or Sydney.

或悉尼。

This theory doesn't offer a solution

这项理论并未提供一个解决方案，

to how in the advent of a global elite superpower

即在全球精英超级大国出现之际，

that apparatus will manage a normal civil society

这样的机制将如何管理一个正常的、

worldwide.

遍布全球的公民社会。

In view of such superpower predictions, 表達脈絡

鉴于对超级大国的这些预测，

it should be noted that in the 1980s, 表達脈絡

应当指出的是，在20世纪80年代，

experts collectively believed that Japan would become the next superpower

专家们曾普遍认为日本将成为下一个超级大国，

owing to its large GDP 短語搭配

这归功于其庞大的国内生产总值（GDP）

and high economic growth.

和高速的经济增长。

However,

然而，

a few years later in 1991,

几年后的1991年，

Japan's economy crashed,

日本经济崩盘，

creating the Lost Years, 文化背景

造成了‘失去的几年’（Lost Years），

a long period of economic slump

一段长期的经济衰退，

that Japan has never fully recovered from. 語法

而日本至今仍未从中完全恢复。

So while our predictions might have seemed logical at the time, 語法

因此，尽管我们的预测在当时看来可能很合乎逻辑，

the world is a volatile place

但世界是一个变幻莫测的地方，

and superpowers rise and fall

超级大国的兴衰更迭

as a matter of opportunity and chance

不仅依赖于细致入微的军事规划

just as much as they do through meticulous military planning 語法

或战略性的经济预测，

or strategic economic forecast.

往往还取决于机遇和偶然性。

So,

那么，

who do you predict will be the next superpower nation? 語法

你预测谁会成为下一个超级大国呢？

Are there promising countries

有没有哪些大有希望的国家，

that we failed to mention?

是我们没有提到的？

Let us know in the comments.

在评论区告诉我们吧。

Also,

此外，

be sure to check out our other video called

一定要去看看我们的另一个视频，名为

What if the world was one country?

《如果世界是一个国家会怎样？》

Thanks for watching,

感谢收看，

and as always,

并且一如既往，

don't forget to like,

不要忘记点赞、

share,

分享

and subscribe.

和订阅。

See you next time.

我们下次再见。