人口过剩 —— 人类大爆发的奥秘：英语精读讲义

Never before in history have there been so many people on Earth as right now. 語法

历史上地球上的人口从未像现在这么多。

Our numbers have skyrocketed from 1 billion in 1800 to 2.3 billion in 1940, 短語搭配

我们的数量已从1800年的10亿飙升至1940年的23亿，

3.7 billion in 1970,

1970年的37亿，

and 7.4 billion in 2016.

以及2016年的74亿。

The world population increased fourfold in the last century. 用詞

上个世纪，世界人口增至四倍。

So, what can we expect for the next century?

那么，下个世纪我们能预见什么呢？

And what does population growth mean for our future?

人口增长对我们的未来意味着什么？

Will there be mass migration,

会出现大规模移民吗？

overcrowded slums and megacities covering continents,

拥挤的贫民窟和覆盖整个大陆的巨型城市，

diseases and pollution,

疾病和污染，

chaos and violence over energy, water, and food,

为争夺能源、水和食物而引发的混乱与暴力，

and a human species focused only on sustaining itself?

人类是否会沦为只为生存而挣扎的物种？

Will population growth destroy our way of life,

人口增长会摧毁我们的生活方式吗，

or is this prophecy just ungrounded panic?

还是说这种预言只是毫无根据的恐慌？

In the 1960s, population growth reached an unprecedented rate,

在20世纪60年代，人口增长达到了史无前例的速度，

which led to apocalyptic prophecies.

这引发了世界末日般的预言。

The poor would procreate endlessly and overrun the developed world. 用詞

穷人将无休止地繁衍并淹没发达世界。

The legend of overpopulation was born. 習語

人口过剩的传说就此诞生。

But it turns out high birth rates and the population explosion 表達脈絡

但事实证明，高出生率和人口爆炸

are not permanent features of some cultures or countries, 語法

并非某些文化或国家的永久特征，

but rather part of a four-step process the whole world is going through, 短語動詞

而是全世界正在经历的四步过程的一部分，

the demographic transition. 文化背景

即“人口转型”。

Most developed countries have already made the transition,

大多数发达国家已经完成了这一转型，

while other countries are doing it right now.

而其他国家正处于转型之中。

Let's go back to the 18th century, when the entire world, including Europe, 表達脈絡

让我们回到18世纪，当时包括欧洲在内的整个世界，

was in the first stage of the demographic transition.

都处于人口转型的第一阶段。

By today's standards, Europe was worse off than a developing region, 短語搭配

按今天的标准来看，当时欧洲的情况比现在的发展中地区还要糟糕，

suffering from poor sanitation, poor diet, and poor medicine.

饱受卫生条件差、饮食不良和医疗匮乏之苦。

A lot of people were born, but lots of them died just as fast,

许多人出生，但也有许多人很快就死去了，

so the population hardly grew.

所以人口几乎没有增长。

Women had between four and six children,

妇女通常生育四到六个孩子，

but only two of them would reach adulthood.

但其中只有两个能活到成年。

Then the Industrial Revolution happened in the UK 文化背景

后来，英国发生了工业革命，

and brought the greatest change in human living conditions since the Agricultural Revolution.

带来了自农业革命以来人类生存条件的最大改变。

People went from being peasants to workers. 語法

人们从农民变成了工人。

Manufactured goods were mass produced and became widely available. 用詞

工业产品被大规模生产并广泛普及。

The sciences flourished and advanced transportation, communication, and medicine.

科学蓬勃发展，推动了交通、通信和医学的进步。

The role of women in society shifted and created the conditions for their emancipation. 短語搭配

妇女在社会中的角色发生了转变，为她们的解放创造了条件。

Slowly, this economic progress not only formed a middle class, 語法

渐渐地，这种经济进步不仅催生了中产阶级，

but also raised standards of living and health care for the poor working population. 短語搭配

也提高了贫困劳动人口的生活水平和医疗保障。

The second transition stage started.

第二个转型阶段开始了。

Better food supplies, hygiene, and medicine meant people stopped dying all the time,

更好的食物供应、卫生条件和医疗手段意味着人们不再总是面临死亡，

especially so at a very young age.

尤其是在幼年时期。

The result was a population explosion,

结果就是人口爆炸，

doubling the UK's population between 1750 and 1850. 語法

使英国的人口在1750年到1850年间翻了一番。

The main reason families used to have lots of children was that only a few of them were likely to survive. 語法

过去家庭生育很多孩子的主要原因是只有少数几个能够存活下来。

Now that had changed,

现在情况改变了，

so the third stage of the transition was set in motion. 習語

于是第三个转型阶段启动了。

Fewer babies were conceived,

出生的婴儿减少了，

and population growth slowed down.

人口增长也随之放缓。

Eventually, a balance emerged.

最终，达到了一种平衡。

Fewer people were dying, and fewer children were born,

死亡人数减少，出生人数也减少，

so the death rate and birth rate became stable.

因此死亡率和出生率变得稳定。

Britain had reached the fourth stage of the demographic transition.

英国由此进入了人口转型的第四阶段。

This didn't only happen in the UK.

这不仅仅发生在英国。

More and more countries went through the four stages.

越来越多的国家经历了这四个阶段。

First, many births and many deaths due to bad living conditions. 表達脈絡

第一，生活条件差导致高出生率和高死亡率。

Second, better living conditions leading to fewer deaths and a population explosion.

第二，生活条件改善导致死亡率下降和人口爆炸。

Third, fewer deaths resulting in fewer births,

第三，死亡率下降促使出生率随之下降，

and population growth came to an end.

人口增长趋于停止。

But if birth rates have dropped so much, 語法

但如果出生率已经下降了这么多，

why is the population still growing so fast?

为什么人口仍在如此快速地增长呢？

Well, the children born in the population explosion of the 70s and '80s are having kids themselves now,

这是因为在七八十年代人口爆炸时期出生的孩子现在正在生儿育女，

leading to a noticeable spike in overall population. 短語搭配

导致总人口出现了明显的激增。

But they are having far fewer children on average than their parents. 語法

但他们平均生育的孩子比他们的父母少得多。

The average today is 2.5.

如今的平均生育率是2.5个。

It was five 40 years ago.

40年前是5个。

So, as this generation gets older and fertility declines further, 語法

因此，随着这一代人变老以及生育率进一步下降，

the rate of population growth will keep on slowing.

人口增长率将继续放缓。

This is true for every country.

对每个国家来说都是如此。

In the West, we tend to overlook progress in other regions of the world, 短語搭配

在西方，我们往往会忽视世界其他地区的进步，

but actually most of the world's countries have made it to the fourth stage.

但实际上，世界上大多数国家已经进入了第四阶段。

Just look at Bangladesh.

就看看孟加拉国吧。

In 1971, the average woman had seven kids,

1971年，该国妇女平均生育七个孩子，

but 25% of them would die before the age of five.

但其中25%会在五岁前夭折。

In 2015, the mortality rate was down to 3.8%, 短語搭配

到2015年，死亡率降至3.8%，

and women had only 2.2 kids on average.

妇女平均只生育2.2个孩子。

This is the rule, 表達脈絡

这是普遍规律，

not an exception.

而非特例。

We're not special,

我们并不特别，

we just had a head start. 習語

我们只是起步较早。

It took developed countries about 80 years to reduce fertility from more than six children to less than three. 語法

发达国家花了大约80年时间才将生育率从六个以上降至三个以下。

Others are catching up fast. 短語動詞

其他国家正在快速赶上。

Malaysia and South Africa did it in only 34 years.

马来西亚和南非仅用了34年就做到了。

Bangladesh took just 20.

孟加拉国只用了20年。

Iran managed it in 10 years.

伊朗更是只用了10年。

All these countries that are catching up didn't have to start from scratch, 習語

所有这些正在赶超的国家都不必从零开始，

and the more support they get, 語法

而且他们得到的支持越多，

the faster they catch up.

他们赶上的速度就越快。

This is why programs that help lower child mortality or help poor nations develop are so important. 講解

这就是为什么旨在降低儿童死亡率或帮助贫困国家发展的项目如此重要。

No matter what your motivation is, 語法

无论你的动机是什么，

whether you dream of a world where all people live in freedom and wealth, 語法

无论你梦想着一个全人类都生活在自由与富裕中的世界，

or you just want fewer refugees coming to your country,

还是仅仅希望少一些难民涌入你的国家，

the simple truth is that it's beneficial to you personally if people on the other side of the globe can live a good life. 講解

一个简单的事实是，如果地球另一端的人们能过上好日子，对你个人也是有益的。

And we are getting there. 習語

而且我们正在实现这一目标。

The percentage of people living in extreme poverty has never been as low as today. 語法

生活在极端贫困中的人口比例从未像今天这么低。

So, the future of global population growth is actually not an apocalyptic prophecy at all. 表達脈絡

因此，全球人口增长的未来实际上根本不是末日预言。

It's a promise.

而是一个希望的承诺。

Population growth will come to an end.

人口增长必将走向终结。

The UN forecasts that the 12th billionth human will never be born at all.

联合国预测，第120亿个人类根本不会出生。

And as the development level of the world rises,

而随着世界发展水平的提高，

the number of people with a higher education will increase tenfold. 用詞

接受过高等教育的人数将增加十倍。

Countries who used to be in need will help advance development instead. 短語搭配

过去需要帮助的国家反过来将帮助推动全球发展。

More people is going to mean more people able to advance our species. 語法

更多的人口将意味着有更多的人能够推动我们物种的进步。

This video was a collaboration with Max Roser and Our World in Data,

本视频是与Max Roser和Our World in Data合作制作的，

where he explores the progress of humanity through research and data visualization.

在那里，他通过研究和数据可视化来探索人类的进步。

Make sure to check it out.

请一定要去看看。

In 2016, we were able to make more and better content than ever before because of your support on patreon.com. 語法

2016年，因为你们在patreon.com上的支持，我们得以制作出比以往更多、更好的内容。

Thank you so much,

非常感谢你们，

and we'll be back in the year 12,017.

我们将在12017年再见。