加息如何控制通货膨胀？：英语精读讲义

When central banks raise interest rates,

当央行加息时，

it's big news.

往往是重大新闻。

The bank is judging that the only way they can try to pull down inflation 講解

央行判断，他们试图抑制通胀的唯一办法

is to carry on raising interest rates. 短語動詞

就是继续加息。

We're going to see rising rates,

我们将看到利率上升，

rising interest rates that will make the cost of borrowing go up. 短語搭配

利率上升会使借贷成本增加。

It can send ripples across the whole economy. 習語

它可能在整个经济中引发连锁反应。

It can sink consumer confidence, 短語搭配

它可能削弱消费者信心，

result in fewer jobs and lower wages,

导致就业减少和工资下降，

and cause stock prices to fall.

并导致股市下跌。

If they go too far too fast, 短語搭配

如果步伐过快过猛，

it can tip economies into recession. 短語搭配

可能会使经济陷入衰退。

So, why do central banks raise interest rates?

那么，为什么央行要加息呢？

Let's start with the basics.

让我们从基础知识说起。

If you borrow money,

如果你借钱，

you'll have to pay back a little extra 短語動詞

你将需要多还一点，

to make it worthwhile for the lender. 短語搭配

以使贷款人觉得有利可图。

Well, I think we can make you this loan.

嗯，我想我们可以把这笔贷款放给你。

You have a good reputation.

你的信誉很好。

We know you're reliable.

我们知道你很可靠。

I'm glad you think so.

很高兴你这么认为。

This is the interest rate.

这是利率。

So, if you are taking out a loan, 短語動詞

所以，如果你正在贷款，

you want the interest rate to be as low as possible, 語法

你希望利率越低越好，

so you don't have to pay that much back.

这样你就不用还那么多了。

On the flip side, if you want to save money, 表達脈絡

另一方面，如果你想存钱，

then a high interest rate means you can earn more on your savings. 短語搭配

那么高利率意味着你的存款能获得更多收益。

See it as a reward for leaving money in your account.

把它看作是把钱留在账户里的奖励。

But the size of your reward depends on the circumstances. 短語搭配

但是，奖励的多少取决于具体情况。

There's no single interest rate in the economy.

经济中并不存在单一的利率。

You've got thousands of banks setting their own commercial rates. 用詞

有成千上万家银行在设定自己的商业利率。

That's all influenced though by the interest rate that the central bank sets.

但这都受到央行设定的利率的影响。

A central bank is like a bank for banks. 表達脈絡

央行就像是银行的银行。

Just like you and your savings account,

就像你和你的储蓄账户一样，

banks also earn interest when they leave money with the central bank.

银行将钱存放在央行也能获得利息。

Commercial banks have these things called reserves.

商业银行有称为“准备金”的东西。

So, that's a bit like their cash on hand. 短語搭配

所以，这有点像他们的手头现金。

Commercial banks lend those excess reserves to each other at an interest rate, 短語搭配

商业银行以一定的利率将这些超额准备金互相借贷，

and they also can deposit their excess reserves at the central bank.

他们也可以将超额准备金存入央行。

And when they do that, they can earn an interest rate.

当他们这样做时，就可以赚取利息。

Ordinary people can't access the interest rate on the excess reserves,

普通人无法获得超额准备金的利率，

but it still affects them.

但它仍然会影响到他们。

And that's the idea.

就是这么个道理。

When central banks raise interest rates,

当央行加息时，

they're trying to control inflation.

他们正试图控制通胀。

How fast prices rise for everyone.

也就是物价普遍上涨的速度。

They were £1.29,

原本是1.29英镑，

now they're £1.39 on that in the space of 4 weeks.

短短4周内就涨到了1.39英镑。

Central banks like the Fed or the Bank of England 文化背景

美联储、英国央行等

or the European Central Bank are all trying to hit an inflation target of 2%. 短語搭配

或欧洲央行都在努力实现2%的通胀目标。

Interest rates are a really powerful tool that they have to do that.

利率是他们实现该目标的一个非常有力的工具。

If inflation is seen as too high, 語法

如果通胀被认为过高，

that's when banks raise interest rates.

银行就会加息。

The change spreads through the financial system

这一变化会蔓延至整个金融系统，

and slows down the rate of inflation.

并减缓通胀率。

Here's how.

它是这样起作用的：

A rise in interest rates from a central bank

央行提高利率

means that a commercial bank will earn more on their reserves.

意味着商业银行在准备金上将获得更多收益。

They might make more from keeping their money in a central bank

它们把钱存放在央行可能会比

than lending it out.

把钱贷出去赚得更多。

So, if they do lend it out,

因此，如果它们真的把钱贷出去，

they'll raise their interest rates to make it worth their while. 習語

它们就会提高利率，以确保有钱可赚。

How that affects consumers depends on the economy.

这对消费者的影响取决于经济状况。

Take mortgages. 表達脈絡

以抵押贷款为例。

In places like Finland or Australia,

在芬兰或澳大利亚等地，

lots of people have mortgages with variable interest rates.

许多人的抵押贷款采用浮动利率。

If you've got a variable rate mortgage where the interest rate that you pay is linked to the central bank's interest rate, 用詞

如果你申请的是浮动利率抵押贷款，你支付的利率与央行利率挂钩，

then higher interest rates mean that

那么更高的利率意味着，

essentially immediately the higher rate will translate into less cash to spend on other things. 短語動詞

本质上，更高的利率会立即转化为你用来消费的现金变少。

Less spare cash means households will spend less. 短語搭配

闲钱减少意味着家庭支出也会减少。

And less spending means businesses will be warier of raising prices. 用詞

支出减少意味着企业在提价时会更加谨慎。

This should lower inflation.

这应该会降低通胀。

In other countries like America or Canada,

在美国或加拿大等其他国家，

a bigger share of mortgages are set at fixed rates. 用詞

较大比例的抵押贷款是按固定利率设定的。

People with fixed rates are protected against the direct effects of an interest rate rise, 短語搭配

采用固定利率的人免受加息的直接影响，

but will still feel an indirect impact.

但仍会感受到间接影响。

Higher interest rates mean that mortgages will become more expensive.

较高的利率意味着抵押贷款的成本将变得更加高昂。

If that is affecting all new buyers,

如果这影响到所有的新购房者，

then house prices will begin to fall,

那么房价将开始下跌，

and that will make everyone who owns a home feel poorer, 語法

这会让每个拥有住房的人感到自己变穷了，

and therefore they might spend less.

因此他们可能会减少消费。

Lower spending will translate into lower inflation.

支出减少将转化为较低的通胀。

And it's not just consumers who will tighten the purse strings. 習語

勒紧裤腰带的不仅仅是消费者。

When interest rates rise,

当利率上升时，

then businesses will find it more expensive to borrow and invest. 語法

企业会发现借贷和投资的成本更高了。

That generally means less economic activity.

这通常意味着经济活动减少。

It might mean fewer jobs are created.

这可能意味着创造的就业机会更少。

Fewer jobs and lower wages could mean less money for households,

就业机会减少和工资降低可能意味着家庭收入减少，

and consumer confidence might suffer, 短語搭配

消费者信心可能会受到打击，

which also means less spending.

这同样意味着支出减少。

People are grappling with a decline in real wages, 講解

人们正努力应对实际工资的下降，

meaning their money buys less.

这意味着他们的钱购买力下降了。

When interest rates rise,

当利率上升时，

that will tend to slow down spending, investment,

往往会减缓支出、投资，

and generally depress economic activity. 用詞

并在总体上压抑经济活动。

Overall, that will make businesses more reluctant to raise their prices,

总而言之，这将使企业更不愿提高价格，

and that will tend to pull back inflation.

这将有助于抑制通胀。

It sounds straightforward, right?

听起来很简单，对吧？

But the trick is judging how far to go. 表達脈絡

但关键在于判断该加息到什么程度。

In 1981, the Federal Reserve,

1981年，美联储，

America's central bank,

即美国的中央银行，

allowed interest rates to rise to a whopping 19%. 用詞

允许利率飙升至惊人的19%。

The move curbed inflation, 用詞

这一举措抑制了通胀，

but it led to widespread economic pain.

但却引发了广泛的经济阵痛。

I regret to say 語氣意圖

我很遗憾地说，

that we're in the worst economic mess since the Great Depression.

我们正处于自大萧条以来最糟糕的经济泥潭中。

It is very difficult to get inflation under control 短語搭配

想要控制通胀

without severely denting economic activity. 習語

而又不严重破坏经济活动，这是非常困难的。

In America,

在美国，

it's been over 70 years since they've managed to get inflation down from over 5% 語法

他们成功地将超过5%的通胀率降下来

without causing a recession.

而未引发衰退，距今已有70多年了。

A little inflation is okay.

适度的通胀是没问题的。

It keeps the economy moving at a sensible speed.

它能让经济以合理的速度运转。

But inflation staying high for too long is a problem. 語法

但通胀持续高企是一个问题。

Higher prices means employees will need higher wages,

物价上涨意味着员工需要更高的工资，

pushing up costs for businesses.

这推高了企业的成本。

That could drive up prices further, 短語動詞

这可能会进一步推高价格，

potentially leading to an upward spiral of wages and prices. 習語

甚至可能导致工资和物价螺旋式上升。

Retail inflation in India has surged to 7.8%.

印度零售通胀率飙升至7.8%。

The combination of tepid economic activity and high inflation 用詞

经济活动低迷加上高通胀的结合

poses serious challenges for the Indian economy going forward. 短語搭配

给未来印度经济带来了严峻挑战。

Central bankers are really concerned about setting expectations of inflation. 用詞

央行官员们非常关注如何设定通胀预期。

The idea is that if it can show that it is credible,

其理念是，如果能够证明它是可信的，

that it will always act to get inflation back down to 2%,

即它将始终采取行动使通胀率回落到2%，

then maybe it won't have to, you know,

那么它或许就不需要，你知道的，

raise interest rates and then lower them in this kind of seesaw fashion. 習語

像拉锯一样，一会加息，一会又降息。

Raising interest rates can slow an economy right down. 短語動詞

加息可能会让经济迅速放缓。

The trouble is, the brake pedal has a delay. 習語

问题是，这个“刹车踏板”有延迟。

It can take as long as 2 years 語法

可能需要长达2年的时间

to see the full results from interest rate changes.

才能看到利率变化带来的全部效果。

Central banks know this.

央行知道这一点。

So, when they set interest rates,

所以，当他们设定利率时，

they're actually trying to read the road ahead. 習語

他们实际上是在试图预测前方的道路。

But predicting the future isn't easy.

但预测未来并不容易。

The problem is, it's difficult for the central bank to work out 短語動詞

问题在于，央行很难弄清楚

whether the inflation will fall back on its own. 講解

通胀是否会自行回落。

And even when central banks do get it right, 語法

甚至当央行判断准确时，

they might still cause a crash.

它们也可能引发崩盘。

It may be a blunt instrument, 習語

也许它是一把不够精准的工具，

but raising interest rates is still central banks' main tool

但加息仍然是央行驯服通胀的

for taming inflation. 習語

主要手段。

Central bankers would say that yes,

央行官员们会说，是的，

raising interest rates can be painful.

加息可能是痛苦的。

Slowing down the economy is not fun.

让经济放缓并不好受。

But it's worth it.

但这是值得的。

It's worth it to get low and steady inflation, 語法

为了获得低廉且稳定的通胀率，这是值得的。

so that in the long run, 短語搭配

这样从长远来看，

you don't have to think about it.

你就不必为此操心了。

Thank you for watching.

感谢观看。

To read more of our coverage on interest rates, 用詞

要阅读更多关于我们对利率的报道，

click the link.

请点击链接。

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请别忘了订阅。