为什么外星生命会是我们的末日——大过滤器：英语精读讲义

Imagine NASA announced today that they found aliens.

想象一下，如果NASA今天宣布他们发现了外星人。

Bacteria on Mars,

火星上的细菌，

weird alien fish in the oceans of Europa,

木卫二海洋里奇特的外星鱼类，

and also ancient alien ruins on Titan.

还有土卫六上古老的外星遗迹。

Wouldn't that be great? 語氣意圖

那不是太棒了吗？

Well, no.

并不是。

It would be horrible news.

这将是可怕的消息。

Devastating even.

甚至是毁灭性的。

It could mean that the end of humanity is almost certain

这可能意味着人类的终结几乎是注定的，

and that it might be coming soon.

而且可能很快就会到来。

Why?

为什么？

Why would the most exciting discovery of our lifetime be bad?

为什么我们有生之年最激动人心的发现会是坏事？

Let us imagine the development of life from its inception to us today

让我们把从生命诞生之初到今天我们的发展过程，

as a flight of stairs. 習語

想象成一段楼梯。

The first step is dead chemistry that needs to assemble itself into self-replicating patterns,

第一步是没有生命的化学物质需要将自身组装成可自我复制的模式，

stable and resilient,

稳定且有韧性，

but also able to change and evolve.

但同时也能够改变和进化。

The second step is for our early life to become more complex,

第二步是我们早期的生命变得更加复杂，

able to build more complicated structures

能够构建更复杂的结构，

and use the available energy much more efficiently.

并更高效地利用可用能源。

On the next step,

在下一步，

these cells combine to become multicellular beings,

这些细胞结合成多细胞生物，

enabling unbelievable variety and further complexity. 語法

实现了令人难以置信的多样性和更深层次的复杂性。

The step above sees the species evolve big brains,

往上一层的阶段是物种进化出大容量的大脑，

enabling the use of tools, culture, and shared knowledge,

从而能够使用工具、发展文化和共享知识，

which creates even higher complexity.

这创造了更高的复杂性。

The species can now become the dominant life form on its planet

此时该物种可以成为其星球上的主导生命形式，

and change it according to its needs.

并根据自己的需要改变它。

First, shy attempts to leave its planet are happening.

最初离开其星球的胆怯尝试正在发生。

This is where we are now.

这就是我们目前所处的阶段。

It's in the nature of life as we know it to reach out, 短語搭配

众所周知，生命的本性就是向外延伸，

to cover every niche it can.

去占领每一个它能到达的生存空间。

And since planets have a limited carrying capacity and lifespan, 用詞

而由于行星的承载能力和寿命是有限的，

if a species wants to survive,

如果一个物种想要生存下来，

it will look for more places to spread to.

它就会寻找更多的地方去扩张。

So the steps above the current ones seem logical.

所以在此之上的步骤似乎是符合逻辑的。

Colonize your own solar system.

殖民你自己的太阳系。

Then spread further to reach other stars.

然后进一步扩张以到达其他恒星。

To the possible final step,

直至可能的最终阶段，

becoming a galaxy-wide civilization.

成为一个遍布银河系的文明。

It's very likely that this is a universal principle for civilizations,

很有可能这是文明的一个普遍法则，

no matter where they're from. 語法

不管他们来自哪里。

If a species is competitive and driven enough to take control over its planet,

如果一个物种具有足够的竞争力和动力去掌控其星球，

they'll probably not stop there.

他们很可能不会止步于此。

We know that there are up to 500 billion planets in the Milky Way,

我们知道银河系中多达5000亿颗行星，

at least 10 billion Earth-like planets.

至少有100亿颗类地行星。

Many have been around billions of years longer than Earth. 短語動詞

许多星球存在的时间比地球长几十亿年。

But we're observing zero galactic civilizations.

但我们没有观察到任何银河文明。

We should be able to see something, 語法

我们应该能看到一些东西，

but there's nothing.

但什么也没有。

Space seems to be empty and dead.

太空似乎是空虚且死寂的。

This means something is preventing living things from climbing the staircase

这意味着有什么东西在阻止生物攀登这座楼梯

beyond the step we're on right now.

越过我们现在所处的阶层。

Something that makes becoming a galactic civilization extremely hard,

某些让成为银河文明变得极其困难，

maybe impossible.

甚至不可能的东西。

This is the great filter. 文化背景

这就是“大过滤器”。

A challenge or danger so hard to overcome 語法

一个难以克服的挑战或危险，

that it eliminates almost every species that encounters it.

以至于几乎每一个遇到它的物种都会被淘汰。

There are two scenarios.

有两种假设。

One means we are incredibly special and lucky,

一种意味着我们无比特殊且幸运，

the other one means we are doomed and practically already dead.

另一种意味着我们在劫难逃，基本上已经死了。

It depends on where the filter is on our staircase, 語法

这取决于过滤器在我们阶梯上的哪个位置，

behind or ahead of us. 習語

是在我们身后还是前方。

Scenario one.

假设一。

The filter is behind us.

过滤器在我们身后。

We are the first.

我们是第一批。

If the filter is behind us,

如果过滤器在我们身后，

that means that one of the steps we passed

这意味着我们走过的其中一个台阶

is almost impossible to take.

是几乎不可能跨越的。

Which step could it be?

会是哪一步呢？

Is life itself extremely rare?

是生命本身就极其罕见吗？

It's very hard to make predictions 短語搭配

很难预测

about how likely it is for life to emerge from dead things. 語法

生命从无生命物质中出现的可能性有多大。

There is no consensus. 短語搭配

目前尚未达成共识。

Some scientists think it develops everywhere where the conditions are right, 短語搭配

一些科学家认为，只要条件合适，生命就会随处诞生，

others think that Earth might be the only living place in the universe.

而另一些人则认为地球可能是宇宙中唯一有生命的地方。

Another candidate is the step of complex animal cells.

另一个可能则是复杂动物细胞这一步。

A very specific thing happened on this step,

在这一步发生了一件非常特殊的事情，

and as far as we know, 短語搭配

据我们所知，

it happened exactly once.

仅仅发生过一次。

A primitive hunter cell swallowed another cell,

一个原始的捕猎细胞吞噬了另一个细胞，

but instead of devouring it, 語法

但非但没有消化它，

the two cells formed a union.

这两个细胞形成了一个联盟。

The bigger cell provided shelter,

更大的细胞提供了住所，

took care of interacting with the environment and providing resources, 語法

负责与环境互动并提供资源，

while the smaller one used its new home and free stuff

而较小的细胞则利用新家和免费的东西，

to focus on providing a lot of extra energy for its host. 短語搭配

专注于为其宿主提供大量额外能量。

With the abundant energy,

有了充足的能量，

the host cell could grow more than before

宿主细胞可以长得比以前更大，

and build new and expensive things to improve itself,

并建造新且昂贵的东西来完善自己，

while the guest became the powerhouse of the cell. 習語

而客细胞则成了细胞的能量核心。

These cells make up every animal on the planet. 短語動詞

地球上的每种动物都是由这些细胞构成的。

Maybe there are billions of bacteria-covered planets in the Milky Way,

也许银河系中有数十亿颗布满细菌的行星，

but not a single one apart from us

但除了我们之外，没有一颗星球

has achieved our level of complexity.

达到了我们的复杂程度。

Or intelligence.

或者智能。

We humans feel very smart and sophisticated with our crossword puzzles and romantic novels,

我们人类通过填字游戏和言情小说，觉得自己非常聪明复杂，

but a big brain is first and foremost 短語搭配

但大容量大脑首先

a very expensive evolutionary investment.

是一项极其昂贵的进化投资。

They are fragile.

它们很脆弱。

They don't help in a fistfight with a bear,

在和熊赤手空拳搏斗时帮不上忙，

they cost enormous amounts of energy,

它们消耗巨大的能量，

and despite them,

而且尽管有大脑，

it took modern humans 200,000 years to get from sharp sticks to civilization. 語法

现代人类也花了两万年才从用削尖的木棍进化到文明社会。

Being smart does not mean you get to win automatically.

变聪明并不意味着你能自动获胜。

Maybe intelligence is just not so great

也许智慧本身并没有那么伟大，

and we're lucky that it worked out for us. 短語動詞

我们只是幸运地从中受益了。

Scenario two.

假设二。

The filter is ahead of us.

过滤器在我们前方。

Plenty of others died already.

已经有无数文明灭亡了。

A great filter before us

横亘在我们前方的大过滤器

is orders of magnitude more dangerous 用詞

比我们迄今遇到的任何事物

than anything we encountered so far.

都要危险好几个数量级。

Even if a major disaster killed most of us or threw us back thousands of years, 語法

即使一场重大灾难杀死了我们绝大多数人，或把我们打回几千年前，

we would survive and recover.

我们也能生存下来并恢复元气。

And if we can recover,

而如果我们能恢复，

even if it takes a million years,

哪怕需要一百万年，

then it's not a great filter, 表達脈絡

那它就不是大过滤器，

but just a roadblock to an eventual galactic civilization.

而仅仅是通往最终银河文明的绊脚石。

On universal timescales,

在宇宙的时间尺度上，

even millions of years are just the blink of an eye. 習語

哪怕数百万年也只是眨眼之间。

If a great filter really lies before us,

如果我们面前真的存在一个大过滤器，

it has to be so dangerous,

那么它必须极其危险，

so purely devastating and powerful

极具纯粹的破坏力和威力，

that it has destroyed most, 表達脈絡

导致它摧毁了绝大多数，

if not all advanced civilizations in our galaxy,

如果不是全部的话，银河系中的高级文明，

over billions of years.

在几十亿年的时间里。

A really daunting and depressing hypothesis

一个真正令人气馁且沮丧的假设是，

is that once a species takes control over its planet, 語法

一旦一个物种控制了其星球，

it's already on the path to self-destruction. 習語

它就已经踏上了自我毁灭之路。

Technology is a good way to achieve that.

科技就是实现这一目标的好方法。

It needs to be something that's so obvious that virtually everybody discovers it

它需要是极其显而易见的东西，以至于几乎所有人都会发现它，

and so dangerous that its discovery leads almost universally to an existential disaster. 短語搭配

且极其危险，它的发现几乎无一例外地会导致生存灾难。

A large-scale nuclear war.

比如一场大规模核战争。

Nanotechnology that gets out of control. 短語動詞

失控的纳米技术。

Genetic engineering of the perfect superbug.

基因工程制造出的完美超级细菌。

An experiment that lights the whole atmosphere on fire.

点燃整个大气层的实验。

It might be a superintelligent AI

可能是超级智能AI

that accidentally or purposely destroys its creators.

意外或故意地摧毁了它的创造者。

Or things that we can't even see coming right now. 短語動詞

或者是我们现在甚至无法预见的事情。

Or it's way simpler. 用詞

或者可能简单得多。

Species competitive enough to take over their planet 短語動詞

具有足够竞争力去占领其星球的物种，

necessarily destroy it while competing with each other for resources.

必然会在相互争夺资源时毁灭它。

Maybe there are runaway chain reactions in every ecosystem

也许每个生态系统中都存在失控的连锁反应，

that once set in motion are not fixable. 短語搭配

一旦启动便无法修复。

And so once a civilization is powerful enough to change the composition of its atmosphere, 語法

因此，一旦一个文明强大到足以改变其大气层的成分，

they make their planet uninhabitable 100% of the time.

它们100%会让自己的星球变得无法居住。

Let's hope that that's not the case. 語氣意圖

希望情况并非如此。

If the filter is ahead of us,

如果过滤器在我们前方，

our odds are really bad.

我们的处境就会非常糟糕。

What we can hope for.

我们能抱有什么希望呢。

This is why finding life beyond Earth

这就是为什么在地球之外发现生命

would be horrible.

是一件可怕的事。

The more common life is in the universe 語法

宇宙中的生命越普遍，

and the more advanced and complex it is,

越是高级和复杂，

the more likely it becomes that a filter is in front of us.

过滤器在我们前方的可能性就越大。

Bacteria would be bad,

发现细菌很糟糕，

small animals would be worse,

发现小动物会更糟，

intelligent life would be alarming.

发现智能生命将令人不寒而栗。

Ruins of ancient alien civilizations

古代外星文明的遗迹

would be horrible.

将会是一场噩梦。

The best case scenario for us right now

对我们现在来说，最好的情况

is that Mars is sterile,

是火星上毫无生命，

that Europa's oceans are devoid of life, 用詞

木卫二的海洋里没有生命，

and the vast arms of the Milky Way

银河系广阔的旋臂中

harbor only empty oceans hugging dead continents. 用詞

只怀抱着环绕着死亡大陆的空荡海洋。

That there are billions of empty planets waiting to be discovered 語法

有数十亿颗空荡荡的星球等待着被发现，

and to be filled up with life. 短語動詞

等待着被生命填满。

Billions of new homes

数十亿个新家园

waiting for us to finally arrive.

终于等到我们的到来。