新冠疫情将如何改变全球金融秩序：英语精读讲义

America has dominated global finance since the end of the Second World War,

自二战结束以来，美国一直主导着全球金融，

when the current system was built.

当今体系正是在那时建立的。

Designed to establish the economic foundations of peace

这一体系旨在奠定和平的经济基础，

on the bedrock of genuine international cooperation. 習語

并以真正的国际合作为基石。

But the economic disaster caused by the coronavirus pandemic could signal a new chapter in financial history 習語

但新冠病毒大流行引发的经济灾难，可能预示着金融史将翻开新篇章，

with America's leadership called into question. 短語搭配

美国的领导地位也因此受到质疑。

COVID-19 has shown that America is failing to sort out its own affairs at home, 短語動詞

新冠疫情表明，美国连自己的国内事务都处理不好，

let alone provide global leadership. 表達脈絡

更别提发挥全球领导作用了。

$484 billion for loans after the first round of funding ran out. 短語動詞

第一轮资金用尽后，又有4840亿美元用于贷款。

Another huge spike in unemployment claims.

失业救济申请人数再次大幅飙升。

With a vacuum emerging at the top of the financial order, 語法

随着金融秩序的顶层出现权力真空，

China is vying to compete for greater control.

中国正力争获得更大的控制权。

This is not a case of China becoming Wall Street overnight. 表達脈絡

这并不是说中国能一夜之间变成华尔街。

The crisis has provided China with an opportunity to show what it's capable of doing, 短語搭配

这场危机给了中国一个展示自身能力的机会，

which in the long run will tip the balance of power. 講解

长远来看，这将改变力量平衡。

In global finance,

在全球金融领域，

America is king.

美国是王者。

It controls the world's financial plumbing 習語

它掌控着世界金融体系的管道，

and accounts for almost a quarter of the world economy. 短語動詞

其经济规模占全球经济近四分之一。

The dollar makes up most central bank reserves

美元占据了各国央行储备的大部分，

and is the currency of international trade.

也是国际贸易使用的货币。

80% of global supply chains use dollars,

全球80%的供应链使用美元，

which gives America significant power.

这赋予了美国巨大的权力。

Whoever controls the flows of money at the end of the day 習語

归根结底，谁控制了资金流动，

controls a lot of things in the economy

谁就控制了经济中的许多事务，

and ends up being the puppet master of a lot of things that go on around the world. 講解

并最终成为操纵世界各地众多事件的幕后主使。

China hopes to correct this imbalance.

中国希望纠正这种失衡。

There is a growing call from the international community

国际社会要求

for reforming the global economic governance system,

改革全球经济治理体系的呼声日益高涨，

which is a pressing task for us.

这也是我们面临的一项紧迫任务。

It already has the world's second largest economy.

中国已经是世界第二大经济体。

Its banks are enormous.

中国的银行规模庞大。

The banking sector has been growing fairly steadily for the past 10 years, 語法

过去10年，中国银行业一直相当稳定地增长，

while in America bank assets have remained relatively stable.

而美国的银行资产则保持相对稳定。

And with European banks assets falling,

与此同时，欧洲银行的资产不断缩水，

Chinese banks now have more assets than those in Europe or America.

如今，中国的银行资产已超过欧洲或美国的银行。

But most of their business is within China.

但这些银行的大部分业务都在中国境内。

Chinese banks account for only 7% of cross-border lending.

中国的银行仅占跨境贷款的7%。

So the banks' vast size hasn't translated into influence within the world's financial system, 短語搭配

因此，这些银行的庞大规模尚未转化为其在全球金融体系中的影响力，

yet.

至少目前还没有。

Its banks are becoming more active overseas.

中国的银行在海外正变得更加活跃。

They are lending to companies,

它们向企业提供贷款，

in particular Chinese companies that are globalizing.

尤其是正在走向全球的中国企业。

China is also giving its own currency a more prominent role in commodities markets, 短語搭配

中国也在让人民币在大宗商品市场扮演更重要的角色，

It has convinced a few companies to use the currency.

并已说服少数企业使用人民币。

Rio Tinto, which is one of the largest iron ore miners in the world,

全球最大的铁矿石开采商之一力拓（Rio Tinto）

issued its first contracts in yuan last year.

去年首次签发了以人民币计价的合同。

The COVID-19 pandemic could increase China's financial influence.

新冠疫情可能会增强中国的金融影响力。

China is now sharing its experience with the rest of the world

中国如今正与世界其他地区分享自身经验，

and providing much-needed supplies.

并提供各方急需的物资。

30 tons of equipment to Italy,

向意大利运送30吨设备，

500,000 surgical masks to Spain.

向西班牙提供50万个医用口罩。

Following the outbreak in Wuhan,

武汉暴发疫情后，

China has positioned itself as a global leader, 短語搭配

中国将自己定位为全球领导者，

containing the outbreak, 表達脈絡

遏制疫情，

agreeing to deals to suspend repayment of some of its loans,

同意达成协议，暂停偿还部分贷款，

and charging ahead with vaccine development.

并全力推进疫苗研发。

The COVID crisis,

新冠危机

at least so far, 表達脈絡

至少到目前为止，

has cast a negative shadow on the capacity for leadership of America. 習語

已经给美国的领导能力蒙上了一层阴影。

It did not try or even show interest in marshalling a global response to this crisis. 用詞

美国既没有尝试、甚至也没有表现出兴趣去协调全球应对这场危机。

It's going to disappear one day.

总有一天，它会消失。

It's like a miracle.

就像奇迹一样。

It will disappear.

它会消失的。

This could offer an opportunity for China

这可能会给中国带来机会，

because it's tried to fill the vacuum 習語

因为中国一直试图填补

that America has left in terms of global leadership.

美国在全球领导力方面留下的真空。

China's tough response to the crisis

中国对这场危机采取的强硬应对措施，

and the growing size and depth of its financial markets

加上其金融市场的规模和深度不断增长，

have helped convince investors it's a safe bet, 習語

让投资者更加相信中国值得安全投资，

even as COVID sent other markets crashing. 表達脈絡

即使新冠疫情导致其他市场暴跌。

While emerging markets saw the value of bonds plummet earlier this year, 語法

今年早些时候，新兴市场债券价值大跌，

China's government bonds remained stable,

而中国国债却保持稳定，

which is a good gauge of trust in a country's economy. 習語

这正是衡量人们对一国经济信任度的良好指标。

So China has the second biggest bond market in the world.

因此，中国拥有全球第二大债券市场。

COVID provided the first tests that this bond market could resist a crisis

新冠疫情首次检验了这个债券市场能否抵御危机，

in a way that typically emerging market bonds don't.

而新兴市场债券通常做不到这一点。

It shows investors trust China

这表明投资者信任中国，

as an economy that they don't think it's going to collapse overnight.

认为中国经济不会一夜之间崩溃。

As well as improving its reputation with international investors, 語法

除了提升在国际投资者中的声誉，

China hopes to increase its hold over how money moves around the world. 短語搭配

中国还希望加强对全球资金流动方式的掌控。

America has huge influence over the current system,

美国对现有体系拥有巨大影响力，

thanks to SWIFT, the world's largest network for transferring money. 文化背景

这要归功于全球最大的资金转账网络SWIFT。

It's a messaging system that allows financial institutions to communicate.

它是一个让金融机构相互沟通的报文系统。

It's meant to be geopolitically neutral. 語法

它本应在地缘政治上保持中立。

But because a majority of SWIFT transactions are in dollars

但由于SWIFT的大多数交易都以美元结算，

and these are routed through New York, 用詞

而且这些交易都经由纽约处理，

America has used the system to choke its adversaries. 習語

美国一直利用这一体系遏制对手。

Russia feared being excluded after its invasion of Crimea

俄罗斯入侵克里米亚后，曾担心自己会被排除在外，

and some Iranian banks were blocked from using the system in 2018

2018年，一些伊朗银行也被禁止使用该系统，

to enforce US sanctions.

以执行美国的制裁。

So SWIFT is uh based in Belgium,

所以，SWIFT总部设在比利时，

so it's supposed to be neutral.

按理说应该保持中立。

However,

然而，

America has a strong influence over it.

美国对它有着强大的影响力。

America can also threaten SWIFT with sanctions if SWIFT does not do what America wants.

如果SWIFT不按美国的意愿行事，美国也可以用制裁来威胁它。

This is very upsetting for its allies,

这让美国的盟友非常不满，

which would rather the system stays neutral

它们更希望这一体系保持中立，

and for the benefit of everyone.

并让所有人都能从中受益。

For now,

目前，

China can't hope to challenge America's dominance of SWIFT. 短語搭配

中国还无法挑战美国对SWIFT的主导地位。

Instead, Chinese companies are targeting a different part of the financial system,

因此，中国企业将目标转向了金融体系的另一个环节，

the way in which consumers spend their money.

也就是消费者花钱的方式。

Most consumer payments rely on American giants Visa and Mastercard.

大多数消费者支付都依赖美国巨头Visa和Mastercard。

But Chinese tech companies have developed a series of apps that disrupt this system.

但中国科技公司开发出了一系列颠覆这一体系的应用程序。

Rather than using bank accounts or credit cards for transactions, 語法

消费者不再通过银行账户或信用卡进行交易，

consumers load money into digital wallets.

而是把钱存入数字钱包。

Consumers can then do almost anything,

随后，消费者几乎可以做任何事，

from paying parking fines to making investments or ordering taxis, 語法

从缴纳停车罚款，到投资或叫出租车，

without any of this money flowing through the banks, 語法

全程无需让任何资金流经银行，

creating a parallel financial ecosystem. 用詞

从而形成一个平行的金融生态系统。

This is potentially very disruptive to the financial system.

这可能会对金融体系造成巨大冲击。

It changes the way the money moves around the world.

它改变了资金在全球流动的方式。

It empowers a new set of companies

它赋予了一批新公司更大的力量，

which are so big 語法

这些公司规模如此庞大，

that even the Chinese government is scared of them.

甚至连中国政府都对它们心存忌惮。

Last year,

去年，

Chinese customers made mobile payments worth a total of $49 trillion. 短語搭配

中国消费者的移动支付总额达到49万亿美元。

And the two main Chinese companies offering this tech,

而提供这项技术的两家主要中国企业，

Tencent and Ant Financial,

腾讯和蚂蚁金服，

are enormous,

都规模庞大，

with a billion users each.

各自拥有10亿用户。

COVID-19 may increase their reach.

新冠疫情可能会进一步扩大它们的影响范围。

People are doing more shopping online,

人们更多地在网上购物，

trying to stay away from cash, 短語動詞

并尽量避免使用现金，

which is seen as a potential contaminant.

因为现金被视为潜在的污染源。

And this is all to the benefit of electronic payment firms. 短語搭配

这一切都让电子支付公司受益。

Ant Financial and Tencent are already expanding overseas.

蚂蚁金服和腾讯已经在向海外扩张。

Ant Financial's app,

蚂蚁金服旗下的应用

Alipay, is accepted in 56 countries and regions.

支付宝已在56个国家和地区获准使用。

And other digital wallet firms are buying into their tech. 短語動詞

其他数字钱包公司也在采用它们的技术。

Alipay's QR format has already been adopted by six European mobile wallets.

已有六个欧洲移动钱包采用支付宝的二维码格式。

America has reasons to be worried about the Chinese giants.

美国有理由担心这些中国巨头。

They are getting bigger in the region

它们在这一地区的势力日益壮大，

because they are investing their wallets in Southeast Asia and beyond.

因为它们正在东南亚及其他地区投资数字钱包业务。

And in effect, 表達脈絡

事实上，

it creates a system that is not reliant on American companies, 講解

这创造了一个不依赖美国企业、

American standards,

美国标准

American norms.

和美国规范的体系。

But China faces a major obstacle.

但中国面临一个重大障碍。

Much of the world distrusts its intentions.

世界许多地方都不信任它的意图。

China denying a cover-up.

中国否认曾掩盖疫情。

The top Chinese officials kept it quiet.

中国高层官员封锁了消息。

After all, 表達脈絡

毕竟，

Chinese leaders initially denied and covered up the spread of COVID-19. 短語動詞

中国领导层最初否认并掩盖了新冠疫情的传播。

There's always a doubt about what is the ultimate objective 語法

人们始终怀疑，

that China is pursuing in being so collaborative at the present time.

中国此时表现得如此合作，最终目的究竟是什么。

It's not always transparent about the truth 短語搭配

中国在真相方面并不总是透明，

and what happens in its own country.

对国内发生的事情也是如此。

In a global financial system,

在全球金融体系中，

you need transparency.

透明度必不可少。

You need to know the facts,

你需要了解事实，

what's going on,

知道正在发生什么，

to make sure the system is in good health. 習語

才能确保体系健康运行。

As China's financial sphere of influence grows, 用詞

随着中国的金融影响力范围不断扩大，

it's unclear whether it will complement America's 語法

它究竟会与美国的影响力形成互补，

by creating more competition

通过创造更多竞争，

or undermine the existing system.

还是会削弱现有体系，目前仍不明朗。

In the end,

最终，

what we could see is the fragmentation of the global financial system 表達脈絡

我们或许会看到全球金融体系分裂，

in an America-dominated sphere and a China-dominated sphere. 用詞

形成美国主导和中国主导的两大阵营。

These two systems don't have to be mutually exclusive. 語法

这两个体系不一定非要相互排斥。

They could actually collaborate with each other.

它们其实可以彼此合作。

If they do, 表達脈絡

如果它们愿意合作，

great.

那当然很好。

If they don't,

如果不愿意，

then it will be harder to move money around the world.

那么资金在全球流动就会变得更加困难。

It will be a costlier and more dangerous financial system

这个金融体系将成本更高、风险更大，

and in the end most people will lose out. 短語動詞

最终，大多数人都会蒙受损失。

China may not become the dominant force in global finance anytime soon, 短語搭配

中国或许不会很快成为全球金融领域的主导力量，

but COVID-19 is helping to fast-track its progress. 用詞

但新冠疫情正在帮助它加速前进。

And as the world recovers from the virus

随着世界从疫情中复苏，

and economies begin to open up, 短語動詞

各国经济开始重启，

China will be well placed to make significant gains. 短語搭配

中国将处于有利位置，有望取得显著进展。

Thanks for watching.

感谢观看。

I'm Matthieu Favas, finance correspondent at The Economist.

我是《经济学人》财经记者Matthieu Favas。

And if you want to read more about how the COVID crisis is going to change the financial system,

如果你想进一步了解新冠危机将如何改变金融体系，

please click the link opposite.

请点击旁边的链接。