人类文明正处于崩溃的边缘吗？：英语精读讲义

At its height, the Roman Empire was home to about 30% of the world's population. 短語搭配

在鼎盛时期，罗马帝国的人口约占世界总人口的30%。

And in many ways,

在许多方面，

it was the pinnacle of human advancement. 用詞

它是人类进步的顶峰。

Its citizens enjoyed the benefits of central heating,

其公民享受着中央供暖带来的便利，

concrete, double glazing,

还有混凝土、双层玻璃、

banking, international trade,

银行业、国际贸易

and upward social mobility. 用詞

和向上流动的社会阶层。

Rome became the first city in history with 1 million inhabitants

罗马成为了历史上第一个拥有100万居民的城市，

and was a center of technological, legal, and economic progress.

也是技术、法律和经济进步的中心。

An empire impossible to topple, 語法

一个不可能被推翻的帝国，

stable and rich, and powerful.

稳定、富裕且强大。

Until it wasn't anymore. 表達脈絡

直到它不再如此。

First slowly, then suddenly, 表達脈絡

起初是缓慢的，然后突然之间，

the most powerful civilization on Earth collapsed.

地球上最强大的文明崩溃了。

By civilization, 表達脈絡

说到文明，

we mean a complex society where labor is specialized and social classes emerge

我们指的是一个劳动力专业化、社会阶级出现、

and which is ruled by institutions.

并由制度统治的复杂社会。

Civilizations share a dominant mutual language and culture

文明共享一种占据主导地位的共同语言和文化，

and domesticate plants and animals to feed and sustain large cities

驯化动植物来喂养和维持大城市，

where they often construct impressive monuments.

在这些城市中，人们经常建造宏伟的纪念碑。

Civilization lets us become efficient on large scales,

文明让我们能够在大规模上保持高效，

collect vast amounts of knowledge,

收集海量的知识，

and put human ingenuity and the natural resources of the world to work. 短語搭配

并将人类的智慧与世界的自然资源投入使用。

Without civilization, 語法

如果没有文明，

most people would never have been born,

大多数人根本就不会出生，

which makes it a bit concerning that collapse is the rule, 習語

这也让人有点担忧，因为崩溃才是常态，

not the exception.

而不是例外。

Virtually all civilizations end,

几乎所有的文明都会终结，

on average, after 340 years.

平均来看，在340年之后。

Collapse is rarely nice for individuals.

崩溃对个人来说很少是件好事。

Their shared cultural identity is shattered as institutions lose the power to organize people.

随着制度失去组织人民的能力，他们共同的文化认同感也会支离破碎。

Knowledge is lost,

知识流失，

living standards fall,

生活水平下降，

violence increases,

暴力增加，

and often the population declines.

并且通常伴随着人口下降。

The civilization either completely disappears,

文明要么完全消失，

is absorbed by stronger neighbors,

要么被更强大的邻国吞并，

or something new emerges,

要么孕育出新的事物，

sometimes with more primitive technology than before.

有时其技术比以前更加原始。

If this is how it's been over the ages, 表達脈絡

如果古往今来都是如此，

what about us today?

那今天的我们呢？

Just as Europeans forgot how to build indoor plumbing and make cement, 語法

正如欧洲人曾忘记了如何建造室内管道和制造水泥，

will we lose our industrial technology,

我们会失去我们的工业技术，

and with that our greatest achievements

并随之失去我们最伟大的成就吗——

from $1 pizza to smartphones or laser eye surgery?

从1美元的披萨到智能手机，再到激光眼科手术？

Will all this go away too?

所有这些也会消失吗？

Today,

今天，

our cities stretch for thousands of square kilometers.

我们的城市绵延数千平方公里。

We travel the skies.

我们在天空中穿梭。

Our communication is instant.

我们的通讯是即时的。

Industrial agriculture with engineered high-yield plants,

通过改良的高产作物进行工业化农业生产，

efficient machinery,

加上高效的机械设备，

and high-potency fertilizer feeds billions of people.

以及高浓度肥料，养活了数十亿人。

Modern medicine gives us the longest lifespan we've ever had,

现代医学让我们拥有了前所未有的长寿，

while industrial technology gives us an unprecedented level of comfort and abundance,

而工业技术给了我们空前程度的舒适与富足，

even though we haven't yet learned to attain them without destroying our ecosphere. 語法

尽管我们还没有学会在不破坏生态圈的情况下获得这些。

There are arguably still different civilizations around today 用詞

可以说今天依然存在着不同的文明，

that compete and coexist with each other,

它们相互竞争、共存，

but together they also form a singular global civilization.

但它们共同构成了一个单一的全球文明。

But this modern globalized civilization is even more vulnerable in some ways than past empires

但是，这种现代全球化文明在某些方面甚至比过去的帝国更加脆弱，

because we are much more deeply interconnected.

因为我们彼此之间的联系要紧密得多。

A collapse of the industrialized world

工业化世界的崩溃

literally means that the majority of people alive today

毫不夸张地说，意味着今天活着的大多数人

would perish,

将会丧命，

since without industrial agriculture, 語法

因为如果没有工业化农业，

we would no longer be able to feed them.

我们将无法再养活他们。

And there's an even greater risk.

并且还有一个更大的风险。

What if a collapse were so deeply destructive 語法

如果崩溃的破坏性极大，

that we were unable to reindustrialize again?

导致我们无法再次实现工业化，那该怎么办？

What if it ruined our chances of enjoying a flourishing future 短語搭配

如果它毁了我们作为一个多行星物种

as a multi-planetary species?

享受繁荣未来的机会呢？

A global civilizational collapse could be an existential catastrophe,

全球文明的崩溃可能是一场关乎生死存亡的灾难，

something that ruins not just the lives of everyone alive today,

它毁掉的不仅是今天所有活着的人的生活，

but all the future generations that could have come into being. 習語

还有所有本可以降生的未来子孙后代。

All the knowledge we might have discovered, 語法

我们本可以发现的所有知识，

the art we might have created,

我们本可以创造的艺术，

the joys we might have experienced,

我们本可以体验到的快乐，

would be lost.

都将随之消失。

So,

那么，

how likely is all of this?

所有这一切发生的可能性有多大？

Let's start with some good news. 表達脈絡

让我们先听一些好消息。

While civilization collapses have happened regularly, 語法

尽管文明崩溃经常发生，

none have ever derailed the course of global civilization.

但没有哪一次曾偏离过全球文明发展的轨道。

Rome collapsed,

罗马崩溃了，

but the Aksumite Empire or the Teotihuacans

但阿克苏姆帝国或特奥蒂瓦坎人，

and of course the Byzantine Empire carried on. 短語動詞

当然还有拜占庭帝国，延续了下来。

What about sudden population crashes?

那么人口骤减呢？

So far, 表達脈絡

到目前为止，

we've not seen a catastrophe that has killed much more than 10% of the global population.

我们还没有看到哪场灾难造成了远超全球人口10%的死亡。

No pandemic, 表達脈絡

没有哪场大流行病，

no natural disaster,

没有哪场自然灾害，

no war.

也没有哪场战争能做到。

The last clear example of a rapid global population decrease

上一个全球人口迅速减少的明确例子

was the Black Death,

是黑死病，

a pandemic of the bubonic plague in the 14th century

这是一种在14世纪爆发的腺鼠疫，

that spread across the Middle East and Europe

蔓延了整个中东和欧洲，

and killed a third of all Europeans and about 1/10th of the global population.

夺去了三分之一欧洲人和大约十分之一全球人口的生命。

If any event was going to cause the collapse of civilization, 語法

如果有什么事件会导致文明崩溃的话，

that should have been it.

那应该就是它了。

But even the Black Death demonstrates humanity's resilience more than its fragility. 語法

但即使是黑死病也展现出了人类的韧性，而不是脆弱性。

While the old societies were massively disrupted in the short term, 短語搭配

虽然旧社会在短期内受到了巨大破坏，

the intense loss of human lives and suffering

但惨重的人命损失和苦难

did little to negatively impact European economic and technological development 短語搭配

在长远来看

in the long run.

几乎没有对欧洲的经济和技术发展产生负面影响。

Population size recovered within two centuries,

人口规模在两个世纪内恢复，

and just two centuries later,

而就在两个世纪之后，

the Industrial Revolution began.

工业革命开始了。

History is full of incredible recoveries from horrible tragedies.

历史上充满了从可怕悲剧中惊人恢复的例子。

Take the atomic bombing of Hiroshima during World War II. 表達脈絡

以二战期间广岛的原子弹爆炸为例。

140,000 people were killed

14万人丧生，

and 90% of the city was at least partially incinerated or reduced to rubble. 短語搭配

这座城市90%的地方至少部分被焚毁或化为废墟。

But against all odds, 習語

但尽管困难重重，

they made a remarkable recovery. 短語搭配

他们还是取得了惊人的恢复。

Hiroshima's population recovered within a decade,

广岛的人口在十年内恢复，

and today it's a thriving city of 1.2 million people.

如今它是一个拥有120万人口的繁华城市。

None of this made these horrible events any less horrible

这些并没有让这些可怕的事件

for those who lived through them. 短語動詞

对那些亲历者来说变得不那么可怕。

But for us as a species,

但对我们这个物种来说，

these signs of resilience are good news.

这些复苏的迹象是好消息。

Why recovery is likely even in the worst case.

这就解释了为什么即使在最坏的情况下，恢复也是很有可能的。

One thing that's different from historic collapses 語法

现在与历史上的崩溃不同的一点是，

is that humanity now has unprecedented destructive power.

人类现在拥有了前所未有的破坏力。

Today's nuclear arsenals are so powerful 語法

今天的核武库如此强大，

that all-out global war 用詞

以至于全面爆发的全球战争

could cause a nuclear winter

可能会导致核冬天，

and billions of deaths.

并造成数十亿人死亡。

Our knowledge of our own biology

我们对自身生物学的认识，

and how to manipulate it

以及如何对其进行干预的知识

is getting so advanced

变得如此先进，

that it's becoming possible to engineer viruses

以至于设计出像冠状病毒一样具有传染性、

as contagious as the coronavirus 語法

像埃博拉病毒一样致命的病毒

and as deadly as Ebola.

正成为可能。

Increasingly the risk of global pandemics

全球大流行病的风险

is much higher than in the past.

正日益变得比过去高得多。

So we may cause a collapse ourselves

因此我们可能会自己导致文明崩溃，

and it might be much worse

而且可能比大自然迄今为止

than the things nature has thrown at us so far. 短語動詞

带给我们的灾难要糟糕得多。

But if say 99% of the population died, 用詞

但是，假设99%的人口死亡，

would global civilization collapse forever?

全球文明会永远崩溃吗？

Could we recover from such a tragedy?

我们能从这样的悲剧中恢复过来吗？

We have some reasons to be optimistic.

我们有一些保持乐观的理由。

Let's start with food.

我们先从食物说起。

There are 1 billion agricultural workers today,

今天有10亿农业工作者，

so even if the global population fell to just 80 million,

所以即使全球人口降到只有8000万，

it's virtually guaranteed

几乎可以保证

that many survivors

许多幸存者

would know how to produce food.

也会知道如何生产食物。

And we don't need to start at square one 習語

我们不需要从头开始，

because we could still use modern high-yield crops.

因为我们仍然可以使用现代的高产农作物。

Maize is 10 times bigger than its wild ancestor. 語法

玉米比它的野生祖先大10倍。

Ancient tomatoes were the size of today's peas.

古代的西红柿只有今天的豌豆那么大。

After agriculture,

在农业之后，

the next step towards recovery 表達脈絡

恢复的下一步

would be rebuilding industrial capacity

将是重建工业产能，

like power grids and automated manufacturing.

比如电网和自动化制造。

A huge problem

一个巨大的问题

is that our economies of scale 用詞

是我们的规模经济

make it impossible to just pick up where we left off. 習語

使得我们不可能简单地从中断的地方重新开始。

Many of our high-tech industries

我们的许多高科技产业

are only functional because of huge demand 語法

只有在跨越不同大陆的

and intensely interconnected supply chains

巨大需求和高度互联的供应链下

across different continents.

才能运转。

Even if our infrastructure were left unharmed, 語法

即使我们的基础设施完好无损，

we would make huge steps backwards technologically. 習語

我们在技术上也会大幅倒退。

But then again, 表達脈絡

但话又说回来，

we are thinking in larger timeframes.

我们在用更长的时间尺度来思考。

Industrialization originally happened

最初的工业化

12,000 years after the Agricultural Revolution.

发生在农业革命之后的1.2万年。

So if we need to start over 短語動詞

因此如果我们需要

after a massive collapse,

在大规模崩溃后重新开始，

it shouldn't be that hard to reindustrialize 語法

重新工业化应该不会那么困难，

at least on evolutionary timescales.

至少在进化的时间尺度上是这样。

There's a hitch, 表達脈絡

不过，

though.

有一个小障碍。

The Industrial Revolution was fueled literally

工业革命毫不夸张地说是由

by burning easily accessible coal,

燃烧容易开采的煤炭所推动的，

and we are still very much reliant on it. 短語搭配

而我们现在仍然非常依赖它。

If we use it all up today, 短語動詞

如果我们今天把它全部用完，

aside from making rapid climate change much worse, 語法

除了使急剧的气候变化变得更糟之外，

we could hinder our ability to recover 短語搭配

还可能会阻碍我们

from a huge crisis.

从巨大危机中恢复的能力。

So we should stop using easy to access coal

所以我们应该停止使用易于开采的煤炭，

so it can serve as a civilization insurance 習語

以便它能作为文明的保险，

in case something bad happens. 語法

以防发生什么不好的事情。

Another thing that makes recovery likely 語法

另一个使恢复成为可能的原因

is that we'd probably have most of the information

是我们很可能掌握了

we need to rebuild civilization.

重建文明所需的大部分信息。

We would certainly lose a lot of crucial institutional knowledge, 用詞

我们肯定会失去许多关键的机构知识，

especially on hard drives

尤其是那些存在硬盘上，

that nobody could read or operate anymore.

再也没有人能够读取或操作的知识。

But a lot of the technological, scientific, and cultural knowledge

但是存储在全球260万个图书馆中的

stored in the world's 2.6 million libraries

大量技术、科学和文化知识

would survive the catastrophe.

将在灾难中留存下来。

The post-collapse survivors

崩溃后的幸存者

would know what used to be possible 語法

将会知道过去曾有哪些可能，

and they could reverse-engineer 用詞

他们可以对

some of the tools and machines

找到的一些工具和机器

they'd find.

进行逆向工程。

In conclusion,

总之，

despite the bleak prospect of catastrophic threats, 語法

尽管无论是自然还是我们自己造成的

natural or created by ourselves,

灾难性威胁的前景黯淡，

there is reason for optimism.

但我们仍有理由感到乐观。

Humankind is remarkably resilient,

人类具有非凡的韧性，

and even in the case of a global civilizational collapse, 短語搭配

即使发生全球文明崩溃，

it seems likely that we would be able to recover, 語法

我们似乎也有可能恢复过来，

even if many people were to perish 語法

即使许多人可能会丧命

or suffer immense hardship.

或遭受巨大的苦难。

Even if we lost cultural and technological achievements

即使我们在这一过程中

in the process. 短語搭配

失去了文化和技术成就。

But given the stakes, 表達脈絡

但考虑到利害关系，

the risks are still unnervingly high.

风险依然高得令人不安。

Nuclear war and dangerous pandemics

核战争和危险的流行病

threaten the amazing global civilization

威胁着我们建立的

we have built.

令人惊叹的全球文明。

Humanity is like a teenager, 習語

人类就像一个青少年，

speeding around blind corners,

在盲区弯道超速行驶，

drunk,

醉酒，

without a seatbelt.

且没有系安全带。

The good news is that it's still early enough 語法

好消息是现在要防范和减轻这些风险

to prepare for and to mitigate these risks. 短語搭配

还为时不晚。

We just need to actually do it.

我们只需付诸行动。