2020年选举：民主党能赢得参议院吗？：英语精读讲义

Who's going to win America's election?

谁将赢得美国大选？

Today was the day of a thousand polls.

今天是涌现出无数民调的一天。

It's a question everyone is trying to answer.

这是一个每个人都试图回答的问题。

Joe Biden up over President Trump. 用詞

乔·拜登领先于特朗普总统。

Donald Trump is within the margin of error. 用詞

唐纳德·特朗普在误差范围内。

Most of the focus is on the presidency,

大部分的焦点都在总统大选上，

but there's another crucial race.

但还有另一场至关重要的选举。

With Democrats and Republicans battling for control of the Senate in 2020.

随着民主党和共和党在2020年争夺参议院的控制权。

The Democrats hope this is their chance to win back the Senate.

民主党人希望这是他们赢回参议院的机会。

After five years,

五年之后，

the Democrats are in with a shot of taking back America's Senate. 習語

民主党人有望夺回美国的参议院。

But with 35 individual races to follow,

但由于有35场各自独立的选举需要关注，

the result is harder to predict than the presidency.

其结果比总统大选更难预测。

So, how do you work out who will win?

那么，你如何算出谁会赢呢？

The Economist might have the answer.

《经济学人》可能有着答案。

Control of Congress can make or break a presidency, 習語

对国会的控制权可以成就或毁掉一届总统任期，

especially one intent on delivering change. 語法

特别是一位致力于带来变革的总统。

If you just look at the presidency of Barack Obama,

如果你只看巴拉克·奥巴马的总统任期，

he passed a bunch of major legislation during the first two years of his term.

他在任期的头两年通过了一系列重大立法。

The healthcare reform,

医疗改革，

also the financial reform.

还有金融改革。

And then once the Republicans won the House in 2010, 文化背景

然后一旦共和党在2010年赢得了众议院，

that was that. 習語

一切就到此为止了。

No more legislative achievements for six years.

在接下来的六年里再也没有任何立法上的成就。

Mitch McConnell,

米奇·麦康奈尔，

the Senate Majority Leader at the end of Barack Obama's time in office, 文化背景

这位巴拉克·奥巴马执政末期的参议院多数党领袖，

saw blocking democratic motions as part and parcel of his job. 習語

把阻挠民主党的动议视为他分内的工作。

I was in charge of what we did the last two years of the Obama administration.

我负责了我们在奥巴马政府最后两年的工作。

I give you full credit for that.

我将这完全归功于您。

There is no doubt in my mind that if Joe Biden wins the presidency, 短語搭配

在我看来，毫无疑问，如果乔·拜登赢得总统大选，

Mitch McConnell will respond to his nominees and legislative initiatives exactly the way he did to Barack Obama,

米奇·麦康奈尔对他提名的候选人和立法倡议的反应，将与他对巴拉克·奥巴马的反应完全一样，

which is to block everything that he possibly can.

也就是尽可能地阻挠一切。

There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in November. 習語

11月将有35个参议院席位供争夺。

The Republicans are defending 23 seats,

共和党正在捍卫23个席位，

the Democrats 12.

民主党12个。

To take control,

为了夺取控制权，

the Democrats will need to gain at least four.

民主党将需要至少增加四个席位。

Three if Biden wins the presidency,

如果拜登赢得总统选举，则需要增加三个，

as the Vice President decides on tied votes. 文化背景

因为在票数打平时将由副总统决定。

But trying to predict the result is not an easy task.

但试图预测结果并非易事。

There's so many different races with so many different candidates and so many different polls.

有这么多不同的选举，这么多不同的候选人，以及这么多不同的民意调查。

I mean,

我的意思是，

there's just no way that one person could keep track of it all in their head. 短語動詞

一个人根本无法在脑海中追踪这一切。

And fortunately,

幸运的是，

we have computers to do that for us.

我们有电脑来替我们做这件事。

Earlier this year,

今年早些时候，

Dan began work on creating a model to predict the result of the Senate vote.

丹开始着手建立一个模型来预测参议院选举的结果。

It was probably a good three months of non-stop work including nights and weekends this July,

这大概是整整三个月不间断的工作，包括今年7月的夜晚和周末，

August, September.

以及8月、9月。

It's about as big as a project as anything I've ever done.

这大概是我做过的最大的一个项目。

All of that work for one crucial number,

所有这些工作都是为了一个关键数字，

the percentage chance of a victory.

即获胜的概率。

As of October 6th,

截至10月6日，

our model gave the Democrats a 71% chance of winning the Senate.

我们的模型显示民主党有71%的机会赢得参议院。

If you click on the link above,

如果你点击上面的链接，

it'll take you to the most up-to-date forecast.

它会带你去看最新的预测。

But why trust this number more than the polls?

但是为什么要比民调更相信这个数字呢？

The Economist's model takes in two sources of information to produce its predictions. 短語動詞

《经济学人》的模型吸收了两个信息源来进行预测。

The first is those polls.

第一个是这些民意调查。

You can get quite accurate predictions of how legislative elections are going to go 用詞

你可以对立法选举的走向做出相当准确的预测，

using polls when you have a lot of quality polls taken really close to an election.

只要你在非常接近选举的时候有大量高质量的民调。

The problem is the quality and quantity of polls for Senate races vary widely state by state.

问题是，参议院选举的民调质量和数量因州而异，差异很大。

And every race counts.

并且每一场竞选都至关重要。

That leaves you very, very in the dark in races that don't have much or any polling. 習語

这会让你在那些没有太多或根本没有民调的竞选中非常、非常盲目。

So, the model also looks at a range of historical factors.

因此，该模型还考虑了一系列历史因素。

Things like a state's voting history,

比如一个州的投票历史，

whether a candidate is the incumbent, 用詞

候选人是否是现任，

their political experience,

他们的政治经验，

or how much money they've raised.

或者他们筹集了多少资金。

Political science nerds call these factors fundamentals. 用詞

政治学书呆子们把这些因素称为基本面。

You can produce predictions of results in these races based on all of those sort of benchmark

你可以基于所有这些所谓的基准、

quote-unquote fundamental factors without seeing a single poll. 用詞

打着引号的“基本面”因素来预测这些选举的结果，而无需看任何一项民意调查。

But first,

但首先，

the model has to estimate the impact each of those factors is likely to have on the result.

模型必须评估这些因素中每一个可能对结果产生的影响。

To work that out, 短語動詞

为了计算出这一点，

it is tested on an election for which we already know the result.

它在一次我们已经知道结果的选举上进行了测试。

You say,

你会说，

"Okay, let's give our model the data from every election year except for say 1976.

“好吧，让我们把除比如1976年以外的所有选举年份的数据输入模型。

And based on everything we knew from every year but 1976,

并且基于除了1976年之外的所有年份我们所知道的一切，

what would we have predicted for 1976?" 語法

我们会对1976年做出什么预测？”

It does terribly.

它的表现非常糟糕。

You say, "Oops,

你会说，“哎呀，

that was overfit. 用詞

那是过度拟合了。

What were the least useful variables in here,

这里面最没用的变量是什么，

the ones we could most afford to do without? 短語動詞

我们最能承受去掉哪些？

And let's get rid of them." 短語動詞

那就把它们去掉吧。”

And then even the really strong variables,

甚至对于那些非常强的变量，

let's maybe trim their effect size by like 10% or something because you just never know.

我们也许可以把它们的效应大小削减个10%左右，因为你永远无法确定。

And you basically have the computer just try a zillion of these permutations

你基本上就是让电脑去尝试无数种排列组合，

until it finds the amount of shrinkage that yields the best predictions on the unseen data. 用詞

直到它找到能对未见数据产生最佳预测的收缩量。

Why go to all this trouble? 短語搭配

为什么要费这么大劲？

Because projections that combine polling data with fundamental factors

因为将民调数据与基本面因素结合起来的预测，

tend to be much more stable than those looking at polling alone. 語法

往往比仅仅看民调数据的预测要稳定得多。

Take the 1992 election, 表達脈絡

看看1992年的选举，

where George H.W. Bush lost the presidency to Bill Clinton.

乔治·H·W·布什在总统大选中败给了比尔·克林顿。

This line marks his eventual share of the vote.

这条线标志着他最终的得票率。

But in the months before the election,

但在选举前的几个月里，

you'd have been hard pressed to foresee that. 習語

你很难预见到这一点。

The polls were all over the place. 習語

民意调查乱七八糟。

The Economist model would have been within the margin of error throughout that election year.

而《经济学人》的模型在整个选举年都会保持在误差范围内。

So much for elections that have long since been decided. 表達脈絡

早就尘埃落定的选举就说这么多。

What about the 2020 Senate race?

那么2020年的参议院选举呢？

Here's an example of how we rate the chances that a Republican senator like Susan Collins from Maine

这里有一个例子，展示了我们如何评估像来自缅因州的苏珊·柯林斯这样的共和党参议员，

will retain her seat.

能够保住席位的机会。

Collins won the 2014 election for her Senate seat by a landslide, 習語

柯林斯在2014年以压倒性优势赢得了参议院席位的选举，

suggesting it's more likely she would be voted in again.

这表明她再次当选的可能性更大。

She also has the advantage of incumbency,

她也有作为现任的优势，

something particularly important in Maine.

这在缅因州尤其重要。

But the Democratic candidate Sara Gideon has raised more money in fundraising.

但是民主党候选人萨拉·吉迪恩筹集了更多的资金。

Based on these and other fundamentals,

基于这些以及其他基本面因素，

the model had Collins eight points ahead.

该模型显示柯林斯领先八个百分点。

But that's not the end of the story. 習語

但这还不是故事的结局。

And then each time a poll comes in,

之后，每当有一项民调发布，

you update your prediction.

你就要更新你的预测。

It will move incrementally in the direction of whatever the new poll you're adding says.

它将朝着你添加的新民调所显示的方向增量移动。

There have been a number of high-quality polls in Maine,

缅因州进行了一些高质量的民意调查，

the kind of poll our model weighs heavily.

也就是我们的模型会赋予高权重的民调。

With those factored in, 短語動詞

把这些因素考虑进去，

the forecast swings in favor of her Democratic challenger. 短語搭配

预测便转为对她的民主党挑战者有利。

So, which other races should you keep an eye on? 習語

那么，你还应该关注哪些选举呢？

According to The Economist's model,

根据《经济学人》的模型，

Alabama is very likely to switch from Democrat to Republican.

阿拉巴马州极有可能从民主党转为共和党。

Whilst Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina,

而亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州和北卡罗来纳州，

like Maine, have a good chance of flipping the other way. 用詞

像缅因州一样，有很大机会向相反方向翻盘。

If Biden wins the presidency,

如果拜登赢得总统大选，

this map would give the Democrats their Senate majority.

这张地图将使民主党获得参议院多数席位。

Of course,

当然，

there's another challenge in predicting the results of these or any other race in the 2020 election,

预测2020年大选中这些或任何其他选举的结果还面临另一个挑战，

however good the model. 語法

无论模型有多好。

While in a pandemic,

处在疫情之中，

votes cast by mail are expected to set a new record this November. 講解

今年11月通过邮寄投票的数量预计将创下新纪录。

While the experts say voting by mail is safe,

虽然专家说邮寄投票是安全的，

it's yet another example of how it's complicated and it could be even more challenging come November. 用詞

但这也是表明情况如何复杂，以及到了11月可能更具挑战性的又一个例子。

My model does not make any explicit adjustments for the fact that this election is occurring during the COVID pandemic.

我的模型没有就这次选举发生在新冠疫情期间这一事实做出任何明确的调整。

I think COVID is a huge deal.

我认为新冠疫情是一件非常大的事。

It's obviously killed a huge amount of people.

它显然夺去了许多人的生命。

And of course,

当然，

it will cause changes in the way we vote that could indeed have significant unexpected uh you know,

它将导致我们投票方式的变化，这可能确实会产生重大的、意想不到的，呃，你知道，

unmodelable effects.

无法进行模型化的影响。

But uh I'll need to see the evidence.

但是，呃，我需要看到证据。

Without that evidence,

没有这些证据，

predicting how the pandemic's going to affect this election would call for forces far beyond science. 講解

预测疫情将如何影响这次选举，就需要远远超出科学的力量。

I'm Dan Rosenheck,

我是丹·罗森赫克，

The Economist's data editor.

《经济学人》的数据编辑。

You can keep up to date on all of our election coverage by clicking on the link opposite.

你可以通过点击对面的链接，获取我们所有选举报道的最新信息。

Thank you for watching.

感谢您的收看。