难倒众人，却唯独没难倒玛丽莲·沃斯·莎凡特的简单问题：英语精读讲义

It's quite fitting that Marilyn vos Savant's last name in French means learned. 表達脈絡

玛丽莲·沃斯·莎凡（Marilyn vos Savant）的姓氏在法语中的意思是“博学”，这再合适不过了。

Learning came easy to her considering she has an IQ of 228. 短語搭配

鉴于她的智商高达228，学习对她来说简直轻而易举。

Vos Savant was born in St. Louis, Missouri

沃斯·莎凡出生于密苏里州的圣路易斯，

on August 11, 1946

时间是1946年8月11日，

to immigrants from Germany and Italy.

父母是来自德国和意大利的移民。

Her parents never told her she was exceptional.

她的父母从未告诉过她她有多特别。

She once said in an interview,

她曾在一次采访中说，

"No one really paid much attention to me,

“真的没有人太在意我，

mostly because I was a girl,

主要是因为我是个女孩，

and I accepted that."

而我也接受了这一点。”

But the world would pay attention in 1985 表達脈絡

但在1985年，全世界都将目光投向了她，

when she topped the Guinness Book of World Records list 文化背景

当时她荣登《吉尼斯世界纪录大全》榜首，

as the smartest person in the world.

被称为世界上最聪明的人。

She was nearly 40 when she shot into the spotlight. 習語

她一举成名时已经将近40岁了。

Parade Magazine wrote a profile on her

《Parade》杂志为她写了一篇人物专访，

and readers had so many questions for her 語法

读者们向她提出了各种各样的问题，

that the magazine offered her a Sunday column,

以至于该杂志为她开设了一个周日专栏——

"Ask Marilyn," which exists to this day. 短語搭配

《问问玛丽莲》，这个专栏至今依然存在。

In this column,

在这个专栏中，

she ignited one of the fiercest debates 習語

她引发了21世纪

in probability of the 21st century.

概率学界最激烈的争论之一。

In 1990,

在1990年，

a reader asked her the following question:

一位读者向她提出了这样一个问题：

"Suppose you're on a game show and you're given the choice of three doors. 語法

“假设你正在参加一个电视游戏节目，你有三扇门可以选择。

Behind one door is a car.

一扇门后面是一辆汽车。

Behind the others, goats.

另外两扇门后面是山羊。

You pick a door, say number one, 表達脈絡

你选择了一扇门，比如说一号门，

and the host who knows what's behind the doors

而知道门后有什么的主持人，

opens another door, say number three,

打开了另一扇门，比如说三号门，

which has a goat.

后面是一只山羊。

He says to you,

他对你说，

"Do you want to pick door number two?

‘你想改选二号门吗？’

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?" 短語搭配

改变选择对你有利吗？”

This is known as the Monty Hall problem, 文化背景

这就是著名的“蒙提霍尔问题”，

named after the former host of the game show

以游戏节目

"Let's Make a Deal."

《达成交易》（Let's Make a Deal）的前主持人命名。

Is it behind door number one

它是在一号门后面，

or door number two

还是二号门后面，

or door number three?

抑或是三号门后面？

So, would it be in your interest

那么，从一号门

to switch from door number one to door number two?

换到二号门符合你的利益吗？

I'll give you a few seconds to think about it.

我给你几秒钟时间思考一下。

Most people assume that both doors are equally likely to have the prize, 短語搭配

大多数人认为两扇门后有奖品的概率是一样的，

so they don't see the benefit of switching.

所以他们觉得换门没好处。

However, Vos Savant replied,

然而，沃斯·莎凡回答说：

"Yes, you should switch.

“是的，你应该换。

The first door has a one in three chance of winning, 短語搭配

第一扇门中奖的几率是三分之一，

but the second door has a two in three chance."

但第二扇门中奖的几率是三分之二。”

She got so much heat for this response 習語

她因为这个回答遭到了猛烈的抨击，

and couldn't have imagined the backlash that would follow. 語法

并且根本无法想象随之而来的强烈抵制。

She received thousands of angry letters and said 90% of them told her she was wrong.

她收到了成千上万封愤怒的信件，她说其中90%都在指责她错了。

Scott Smith, who has a PhD from the University of Florida, wrote,

拥有佛罗里达大学博士学位的斯科特·史密斯写道：

"There is enough mathematical illiteracy in this country

“这个国家已经有足够多数学文盲了，

and we don't need the world's highest IQ propagating more.

我们不需要世界上智商最高的人来进一步推波助澜。

Shame."

真丢人。”

Here's a letter from Professor Robert Sachs of George Mason University:

这是一封来自乔治梅森大学罗伯特·萨克斯教授的信：

"You blew it. 習語

“你搞砸了。

As a professional mathematician,

作为一名职业数学家，

I'm very concerned with the general public's lack of mathematical skills.

我非常担忧公众在数学技能上的缺乏。

Please help by confessing your error

请承认你的错误以提供帮助，

and in the future being more careful."

并在未来更加谨慎。”

Don Edwards of Oregon put it this way:

俄勒冈州的唐·爱德华兹这样表述：

"Maybe women look at math problems differently than men."

“也许女性看待数学问题的方式与男性不同。”

But actually the people who sent her the not so friendly letters were absolutely wrong. 語氣意圖

但实际上，那些给她寄来不太友善信件的人完全错了。

Switching your door does increase your probability of winning the prize. 語法

换门确实会增加你赢得奖品的概率。

When you first choose door number one,

当你最初选择一号门时，

there's a one in three chance that the prize is behind that one

奖品在那扇门后的几率是三分之一，

and a two in three chance that it's behind one of the other two.

而在另外两扇门后的几率是三分之二。

But then the host steps in and gives you some help 短語動詞

但随后主持人介入并给了你一些帮助，

by opening up the door they know is a loser.

打开了他们知道没有奖品的那扇门。

So door number two must have the rest of the chances. 語法

所以二号门必定包揽了剩下的几率。

It went from having a one in three chance 語法

它赢得奖品的几率从三分之一

to a two in three shot at the prize.

变成三分之二。

Since the host filtered out the bad door for you, door number three, 短語動詞

既然主持人为你剔除了那个错误的门，也就是三号门，

switching doubles your odds of winning. 短語搭配

换门就能让你的胜算翻倍。

Or put another way, 表達脈絡

或者换句话说，

So yeah, to door number two and

所以没错，转向二号门，并且

thank you for the extra 33.3%.

感谢那多出来的33.3%。

The outcry against Vos Savant was so extreme

针对沃斯·莎凡的抗议声如此极端，

that she felt compelled to devote several other columns 講解

以至于她觉得自己不得不又专门写了几篇专栏文章

to explaining her logic.

来解释她的逻辑。

She noted that the benefits of switching can be proven

她指出，如果你把穷尽所有可能性的

if you were to play through the six games 語法

六种游戏情况都玩一遍，

that exhaust all possibilities. 短語搭配

就能证明换门的好处。

This is contingent on the host always opening a door with a goat. 用詞

其前提条件是，主持人总是会打开一扇有山羊的门。

Mapping out all the possibilities shows there's a higher chance of winning 講解

列出所有的可能性后你会发现，

if you switch than if you stay.

换门比不换门获胜的几率更高。

It's easier to understand the problem if there are many more doors.

如果有很多扇门，这个问题就更容易理解了。

Say you chose one door out of a hundred.

假设你从100扇门中选择了一扇。

The host then eliminates 98 doors

然后主持人排除了98扇

that they know don't have a prize behind them.

他们知道后面没有奖品的门。

That leaves two doors,

那就只剩下两扇门了，

the one you chose and the only other one remaining.

你选的那扇，以及剩下的唯一一扇。

Do you switch now?

你现在会换吗？

Absolutely.

绝对会。

When you first picked,

当你第一次做出选择时，

you only had a one in 100 chance of getting the right door.

你选对门的几率只有百分之一。

The odds of it being behind the other doors 語法

奖品在其他门后面的几率

was 99 out of a hundred.

是百分之九十九。

The host then filters out the options for you

然后主持人为你过滤了选项，

by eliminating 98 bad doors

剔除了98扇

that they know don't have the prize.

他们知道没有奖品的错误之门。

This is to your advantage because it leaves the remaining door

这对你很有利，因为这让剩下的一扇门

with the rest of the odds,

继承了剩余的所有几率，

a 99 out of a hundred chance of having the car.

也就是有百分之九十九的几率藏着汽车。

Some eventually admitted they were in the wrong. 習語

一些人最终承认他们错了。

A team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology worked on the problem

麻省理工学院的一个团队研究了这个问题，

and afterwards Seth Kalson of MIT admitted,

之后麻省理工学院的赛斯·卡尔森承认：

"You are indeed correct.

“你确实是对的。

My colleagues at work had a ball with this problem 習語

我的同事们为了这个问题讨论得不亦乐乎，

and I dare say that most of them, 語氣意圖

而且我敢说，他们中的大多数人，

including me at first, thought you were wrong."

包括一开始的我，都认为你错了。”

To which she responded, 語法

对此她回应道：

"Thanks MIT, I needed that." 語氣意圖

“谢谢麻省理工，这正是我需要的。”

As for that math professor I mentioned earlier 表達脈絡

至于我前面提到的那位数学教授，

who sent that not so friendly letter,

也就是寄了那封不太友善信件的人，

Professor Sachs later conceded,

萨克斯教授后来妥协说：

"After removing my foot from my mouth, 習語

“在收回我那些愚蠢的话后，

I'm now eating humble pie. 習語

我现在正在虚心认错。

I vowed as penance to answer all the people who wrote to castigate me.

我发誓要作为惩罚，回复所有写信批评我的人。

It's been an intense professional embarrassment."

这真是一次极度的职业尴尬。”

Our biggest misconception is assuming that two choices mean a 50-50 chance of something happening. 表達脈絡

我们最大的误解在于认为两个选择就意味着事情发生的几率是50-50。

This makes sense if we don't have any other information.

如果我们没有任何其他信息，这是说得通的。

If I pick two people and ask who would win a tennis match

如果我挑了两个人并问谁会赢得网球比赛，

and you don't know anything about them,

而你对他们一无所知，

you have a 50-50 shot of getting it right.

你猜对的几率就是50-50。

But if I said player A just took up the sport yesterday 短語動詞

但如果我说A选手昨天才开始接触这项运动，

and player B has won Wimbledon,

而B选手赢过温布尔登网球锦标赛，

this would likely change your choice.

这很可能会改变你的选择。

Information matters,

信息至关重要，

just like when the game show host knew which door had a goat.

就像游戏节目主持人知道哪扇门后有山羊一样。

They weren't opening up a door randomly.

他们可不是随机开门的。

So the more you know, 語法

所以你了解得越多，

the more informed decisions you can make.

你做出的决定就越明智。

Vos Savant once said,

沃斯·莎凡曾说：

"People that we think are very smart are not necessarily very smart." 語法

“我们认为很聪明的人不一定真的很聪明。”

She explained they're more likely to be educated or experienced rather than intelligent.

她解释说，他们更有可能是受过良好教育或经验丰富，而不是智力超群。

What does she think is holding people back from their intellectual potential? 短語動詞

她认为是什么阻碍了人们发挥自己的智力潜能呢？

She's been critical of compulsory schooling

她一直对义务教育持批评态度，

because she says students learn passively.

因为她说学生们是在被动学习。

They sit there and are told what to believe

他们坐在那里，被告知该相信什么，

instead of learning to think independently.

而不是学习如何独立思考。

She went so far as to say, 短語搭配

她甚至说过，

"I would rather not see compulsory schooling." 語法

“我宁愿看不到义务教育。”

As for herself,

至于她自己，

she never graduated from university,

她从未从大学毕业，

dropping out of Washington University in St. Louis 短語動詞

在圣路易斯的华盛顿大学读了两年后便退学，

after two years to start a career in investment

开始从事投资行业，

before following her real passion, writing,

之后才追随她真正的热情——写作，

leading to her famous answer to the problem

这也促成了她对那个难倒全世界的问题

that stumped the world. 習語

给出了著名的解答。

There's another way to learn that doesn't involve sitting in a classroom.

还有一种不需要坐在教室里的学习方式。

Brilliant is an online interactive learning platform

Brilliant是一个在线互动学习平台，

that helps you brush up on your math, 短語動詞

能帮助你巩固数学、

science, and computer science skills.

科学和计算机科学技能。

Speaking of the Monty Hall problem, 表達脈絡

说到蒙提霍尔问题，

my sponsor Brilliant has an entire course on probability,

我的赞助商Brilliant有一整套关于概率的课程，

which explores misconceptions that can arise,

其中探讨了可能出现的误解，

including that famous brain teaser. 短語搭配

包括那个著名的脑筋急转弯。

If you're ever stuck, don't worry,

如果你卡住了，别担心，

you can look at the explanation for more.

你可以查看解析了解更多。

There's something for everyone,

这里有适合每个人的内容，

whether you're a beginner or simply want to improve on what you already know. 語法

无论你是初学者，还是只想在现有基础上进一步提升。

You can solve puzzles with science through their scientific thinking course.

你可以通过他们的科学思维课程用科学知识解决难题。

One of my all-time favorites is their logic course,

我一直以来最喜欢的是他们的逻辑学课程，

which helps improve critical thinking that forms the basis of mathematical reasoning. 短語搭配

这有助于提高批判性思维，而这正是数学推理的基础。

Brilliant is free for you to sign up by going to the custom link

通过点击我的简介或置顶评论中的专属链接，

in my description or pinned comment,

你可以免费注册Brilliant，

brilliant.org/newsthink.

网址是 brilliant.org/newsthink。

The first 200 people to use my link will get 20% off their premium membership,

前200名使用我链接的人将获得高级会员20%的折扣，

which gives you access to all of their courses.

这样你就可以访问他们所有的课程。

Thanks for watching.

感谢观看。

For NewsThink,

这里是NewsThink，

I'm Cindy Pom.

我是Cindy Pom。