新冠疫情：为什么经济状况可能比你想的更糟：英语精读讲义

China is bouncing back from the effects of coronavirus 短語動詞

中国正在从新冠疫情的影响中恢复，

and the world is watching to see what they can expect from life after lockdown.

全世界都在密切关注，想知道解除封锁后的生活会是什么样。

China's economy is now functioning at around 90% of normal levels.

中国的经济目前正以约90%的正常水平运转。

90% is an incredible achievement,

90%是一个令人难以置信的成就，

but in practice it will feel very, very strange. 短語搭配

但在实际生活中，它会让人感觉非常非常陌生。

A 90% economy may not sound too bad,

90%的经济听起来可能还不算太糟，

but for many it could be catastrophic.

但对许多人来说，这可能是灾难性的。

some of the worst unemployment numbers in this country's history.

这是这个国家历史上最糟糕的失业数据之一。

6.6 million plus people laid off in a single week. 短語動詞

仅仅一周内就有超过660万人下岗。

It wouldn't be that surprising if um we think we're kind of through the worst of it, 習語

如果我们认为最糟糕的时期已经过去，那也不会令人太惊讶，

we end the lockdown and then actually then things start to get even worse.

我们结束了封锁，但实际上情况却开始变得更加糟糕。

As global lockdowns ease,

随着全球封锁措施的放松，

the economy faces the greatest challenge in living memory. 短語搭配

经济正面临着人们记忆中最巨大的挑战。

Here's what you need to know. 表達脈絡

以下是你需要了解的信息。

In China, factories are up and running, 習語

在中国，工厂已经复工运转，

classrooms are full,

教室里坐满了人，

restaurants are open,

餐厅也恢复了营业，

but the economy has not returned to normal.

但经济并没有恢复正常。

In fact, it's operating at around 90% of usual levels.

事实上，它目前仅以平时大约90%的水平在运转。

And as lockdowns ease elsewhere,

随着其他地区也逐渐解除封锁，

this 90% economy could be what the rest of the world has to look forward to. 短語動詞

这种90%的经济可能就是世界其他国家需要面对的未来。

Regardless of how countries have dealt with the pandemic, 語法

无论各国是如何应对这场疫情的，

it's becoming clear that once businesses have to operate with social distancing in place, 短語搭配

越来越明显的一点是，一旦企业必须在保持社交距离的前提下运营，

the economy can be expected to shrink by about 10% 語法

经济预计就会萎缩约10%，

whether that's in South Korea, America, or Sweden.

无论是在韩国、美国还是瑞典。

But the missing 10% will mean life will feel far from normal. 短語搭配

但这缺失的10%将意味着生活感觉远非正常。

In China, large chunks of everyday life are missing.

在中国，日常生活的很大一部分已经消失了。

Having collapsed in January, 語法

在一月份经历了断崖式下跌之后，

consumer footfall has recovered to about half its previous levels. 用詞

消费者的客流量已经恢复到以前水平的一半左右。

Hotel occupancy is still down by around 50% and 75% fewer people are flying. 短語搭配

酒店入住率仍然下降了约50%，乘坐飞机的人数减少了75%。

What's mainly in the missing 10% is stuff that um is hard to do if you're trying to social distance.

这缺失的10%主要包含的是那些在保持社交距离时很难做到的事情。

So things like restaurants and hotels, theaters, cinemas,

比如餐厅、酒店、剧院、电影院等，

and crucially it's also the way in which people tend to have fun. 語法

关键是，这也是人们通常用于娱乐的方式。

So it's a world where you work and then as soon as the day is over you immediately get back to your house as fast as possible. 語法

所以在这个世界里，你上完班，一天结束后，你会立刻尽快赶回家。

This dip in so-called fun spending will continue even after lockdowns are relaxed. 用詞

即使在封锁放宽后，这种所谓“娱乐消费”的下降仍将继续。

In Sweden, most people were never asked to stay at home during the pandemic,

在瑞典，大多数人在疫情期间从未被要求留在家里，

but Swedish spending patterns over the past few months have mirrored those in neighboring Denmark, which has been under lockdown.

但瑞典在过去几个月的消费模式却与实施了封锁的邻国丹麦相似。

Daily restaurant turnover fell by 70% last month as uncertainty over the economy and fear of infection meant fewer Swedes ate out. 講解

由于对经济的不确定性和对感染的恐惧导致外出就餐的瑞典人减少，上个月餐厅的日营业额下降了70%。

And while overall Danish spending fell by 29% during lockdown,

虽然丹麦在封锁期间的整体支出下降了29%，

Swedes cut their spending by almost as much. 短語搭配

但瑞典人的支出削减幅度也几乎一样大。

What the evidence suggests now is that actually 語法

现在的证据表明，实际上

it's people's own voluntary decisions about how they behave which are shaping

影响经济的更多是人们对于自身行为的自愿决定，

economies actually more than what the government is telling people to do.

而不是政府告诉人们该怎么做。

The lockdown itself is not really influencing behavior that much.

封锁本身并没有对行为产生那么大的影响。

The true economic impact of imposing lockdowns will take time to emerge. 短語搭配

实施封锁的真正经济影响需要时间才会显现出来。

In China, it was several months after the lockdown began to be lifted before bankruptcy numbers started to rise. 語法

在中国，在开始解除封锁几个月后，破产数量才开始上升。

It wouldn't be that surprising if um we think we're kind of through the worst of it,

如果我们认为最糟糕的时期已经过去，那也不会令人太惊讶，

we end the lockdown and then actually then things start to get even worse than we had expected. 語法

我们结束了封锁，但实际上情况却开始变得比我们预期的还要糟糕。

For the past few months,

在过去的几个月里，

the global economy has been propped up by unprecedented levels of state aid. 短語動詞

全球经济一直依靠史无前例的国家援助来支撑。

In Europe's five largest economies,

在欧洲的五大经济体中，

one in five workers is currently in a special scheme where the state pays their wages. 語法

目前有五分之一的工人处于由国家支付工资的特殊计划中。

The government has deployed 750 billion Euros to sustain companies. 用詞

政府已经调拨了7500亿欧元来维持企业生存。

That's unprecedented.

这是前所未有的。

The government is going to step in and help to pay people's wages. 短語動詞

政府将介入并帮助支付人们的工资。

It's only as this support is gradually withdrawn that the wider cost of COVID-19 will become clear. 語法

只有当这些支持逐渐撤销时，COVID-19引发的更广泛代价才会变得清晰。

It will feel quite sort of uncertain 語氣意圖

会让人感觉相当不确定，

because you know no one really knows how businesses and households are going to be able to survive weeks and months of much lower incomes.

因为你知道，没人真正清楚企业和家庭将如何在收入大幅减少的数周和数月中生存下来。

It will impact all levels of the economy.

它将影响经济的所有层面。

Let's take a look at one scenario. 表達脈絡

让我们来看一个假设场景。

A small business owner runs a chain of restaurants. 短語搭配

一位小企业主经营着一家连锁餐厅。

When the pandemic hits, he takes out a loan and furloughs his staff. 講解

疫情来袭时，他申请了贷款并让员工停薪留职。

He's not alone.

他并不是唯一这样做的人。

In March, more cash was handed out to UK businesses than in any month since records began. 講解

三月份，发放给英国企业的现金比有记录以来的任何一个月都多。

After lockdown, he reopen, but business is slow, so he makes staff redundant and closes a restaurant as he can't pay the rent. 用詞

解除封锁后，他重新开业，但生意惨淡，于是他裁退了员工，并因为交不起房租而关闭了一家餐厅。

This has already been happening.

这种情况已经发生过了。

In the first quarter of the year,

在今年的第一季度，

the share of commercial tenants who paid their rent on time in Britain fell from 90% to 60% 語法

英国按时缴纳租金的商业租户比例从90%下降到了60%，

with big firms like Burger King admitting they couldn't make rent on empty restaurants. 短語搭配

像汉堡王这样的大公司也承认，他们无法为没客人的餐厅交纳租金。

Without these rent payments, his landlord can no longer keep up with her mortgage 短語動詞

没有了这些租金收入，他的房东再也无法偿还她的按揭贷款，

and ultimately her bank is left with debt that cannot be repaid.

最终她的银行就无法收回这笔贷款。

The problem with all of these losses across the economy is that someone eventually has to sort of admit that they are going to bear these losses and the consequences of that for business confidence and for investment could be very significant. 短語搭配

整个经济中出现所有这些损失的问题在于，最终得有人站出来承认他们将承担这些损失，而这对商业信心和投资的后果可能是非常重大的。

If you are concerned that your customers or your tenants or whoever is not going to actually be paying the money they owe you,

如果你担心你的客户、租户或任何人实际上不会偿还他们欠你的钱，

then making new investments is not just um risky,

那么进行新的投资不仅有风险，

it's actually completely impossible to price because everything is so unstable. 用詞

实际上根本无法定价，因为一切都太不稳定了。

And so the risk of that is that things like investment get cut back massively and that will you know that will have very large effects. 短語動詞

因此，这带来的风险是像投资这样的事情会被大规模削减，而这将产生非常巨大的影响。

Key economic factors already indicate that the world is facing a prolonged recession. 短語搭配

关键的经济因素已经表明，世界正面临一场长期的衰退。

Already unemployment in America is at its highest rate since the Great Depression. 語法

美国的失业率已经处于自大萧条以来的最高水平。

But these losses will not be felt equally. 表達脈絡

但这些损失并不会被平均分担。

To see how, let's go back to our restaurant owner. 表達脈絡

想知道为什么，让我们回到那位餐厅老板的故事。

The industries hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic are labor-intensive and rely on an army of low-paid workers. 講解

受COVID-19疫情打击最严重的行业是劳动密集型产业，并依赖大量的低薪劳动者。

And it is these people who are particularly likely to lose their jobs. 語法

而正是这些人失业的可能性尤其高。

In America, you are already twice as likely to be made redundant

在美国，年收入低于2万美元的人被裁员的可能性，

if you're earning less than $20,000 a year than $80,000 a year.

已经是年收入8万美元的人的两倍。

The kind of jobs that won't exist at all or in much reduced numbers 語法

那些将完全消失或数量大幅减少的工作，

will be the kind of jobs that are typically done by people who are paid less,

主要是通常由薪水较低的人从事的工作、

jobs that are done by women, and jobs that are done by ethnic minorities more commonly.

女性从事的工作以及更常见由少数族裔从事的工作。

So that's jobs in things like leisure, hospitality, retail trade, and that kind of thing. 語氣意圖

也就是在休闲、酒店、零售等行业的工作。

So I think you could expect unemployment to be really concentrated in certain groups. 語氣意圖

因此，我认为你可以预见到失业真的会集中在某些群体中。

And these economic changes will shape the political agenda in the post-lockdown world. 短語搭配

这些经济变化将塑造解封后世界的政治议程。

You could imagine a situation where it becomes kind of commonsensical that the essential workers who've kept the economy going, 講解

你可以想象这样一种情况：人们形成一种常识，即对于那些维持经济运转的基础工作者，

you can imagine a push towards trying to improve their standard of living and standard of work. 短語搭配

你可以想象会有一种推动力，试图提高他们的生活和工作标准。

On the other hand, you could imagine a situation where countries kind of close in on themselves and say you know 講解

另一方面，你也可以想象这样一种情况：一些国家陷入自我封闭，并说，你知道的，

we don't want immigrants because immigrants bring disease

我们不要移民，因为移民会带来疾病，

and we want to make sure that we have capacity to build vaccines for our citizens for no one else.

我们要确保有能力为本国公民而不是其他人研发疫苗。

It's too soon to know which way the political tide will turn and each country's response will be different. 講解

现在要知道政治潮流将走向何方还为时过早，而且每个国家的反应也会有所不同。

But one certainty is that the longer we all have to wait for a vaccine to be developed and distributed or effective treatment found, 語法

但有一点是肯定的，我们需要等待疫苗研发和分配或找到有效疗法的时间越长，

the more pronounced the effects of the 90% economy will be.

这种“90%经济”的影响就会越明显。

My name's Callum Williams.

我叫卡勒姆·威廉姆斯。

I'm senior economics writer at The Economist.

我是《经济学人》的资深经济学撰稿人。

If you want to read more about the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, then click the link opposite.

如果你想了解更多关于新冠疫情经济后果的内容，请点击对面的链接。