这个 ≠ 那个：英语精读讲义

Have you ever wondered how related the number of people that drown in pools each year 表達脈絡

你有没有想过，每年在游泳池中溺亡的人数

is to how many Nicolas Cage films are released the same year?

与同一年上映的尼古拉斯·凯奇电影数量究竟有多大关联？

Turns out there is a 66.6% correlation between the two. 短語搭配

结果发现，两者之间的相关性高达66.6%。

Or how about the fact that there's a 99.26% correlation between the divorce rate in Maine

再比如，缅因州离婚率与另一项指标的相关性高达99.26%，

and the per capita consumption of margarine, 用詞

这项指标就是人均人造黄油消费量；

or a 99.79% correlation between spending on science, space, and technology,

又比如，科学、太空和技术支出与另一项指标的相关性高达99.79%，

and the number of suicides by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation.

这项指标竟是上吊、勒颈和窒息自杀的人数。

Just because there is a correlation between two variables, 語法

仅仅因为两个变量之间存在相关性，

doesn't mean that one causes the other.

并不意味着其中一个导致了另一个。

This assumption is a logical fallacy, 用詞

这种假设是一种逻辑谬误，

and yet we're drawn to headlines like 短語搭配

可我们还是会被这样的标题吸引：

people who have more sex make the most money.

“性生活越频繁的人，赚的钱越多。”

Unfortunately, this does not always equal that.

遗憾的是，两者并不总能画上等号。

Even though it may look like it,

尽管看起来可能如此，

cheese consumption probably isn't related to how many people die tangled in their bed sheets.

奶酪消费量大概和有多少人被床单缠住而死没有关系。

But sometimes it isn't so obvious.

但有时，问题并没那么显而易见。

Numerous studies found that menopausal women taking hormone replacement therapy had a lower than average incidence of heart disease,

多项研究发现，接受激素替代疗法的更年期女性，心脏病发病率低于平均水平，

leading doctors to believe that hormone replacement could protect against heart disease. 語法

这让医生认为，激素替代疗法可以预防心脏病。

However, when women underwent randomized controlled trials, 文化背景

然而，当女性接受随机对照试验时，

they found that hormone replacement therapy actually increased the risk of heart disease.

结果却发现，激素替代疗法实际上会增加心脏病风险。

When the original data was finally reanalyzed,

等到原始数据终于被重新分析时，

it was found that women who took the therapy were of a higher socioeconomic group 語法

人们发现，接受这种疗法的女性属于社会经济地位更高的群体，

with a better diet and exercise regime.

饮食和锻炼习惯也更健康。

This was the real cause behind decreased risk of heart disease.

这才是她们心脏病风险较低的真正原因。

Another case found that those who used night lights as a kid were more likely to develop myopia, 語法

另一项研究发现，小时候使用小夜灯的人更容易患上近视，

but there's actually a strong link between parental myopia and the development of child myopia, 短語搭配

但实际上，父母近视与孩子近视之间存在很强的关联，

so in reality, myopic parents were simply more likely to leave a light on in their child's bedroom. 語法

所以真实情况只是：近视的父母更可能让孩子卧室的灯一直开着。

These are examples of a lurking variable, 用詞

这些都是“潜伏变量”的例子：

where A does not cause B,

并不是A导致B，

but rather C causes them both. 表達脈絡

而是C同时导致了A和B。

It's a little like taking people who have lung cancer and thinking, 表達脈絡

这就像看到一群肺癌患者，然后心想：

"Hey, they're all carrying lighters in their pockets,

“嘿，他们口袋里都装着打火机，

so lighters must cause cancer." 語法

所以打火机肯定会致癌。”

While not realizing that smoking is the confounding variable.

却没意识到，吸烟才是那个混杂变量。

And scientists work hard in their studies to try and avoid this.

科学家会在研究中努力避免这类问题。

But it gets worse when popular media takes advantage of these potentially coincidental correlations. 講解

但当大众媒体利用这些可能只是巧合的相关性时，情况就更糟了。

And one study about the chocolate weight loss connection

有一项研究探讨巧克力与减肥之间的联系，

was actually designed as a way to expose how science reporting can be sensationalized. 用詞

其实是专门设计来揭露科学报道如何被炒作得耸人听闻的。

A science writer with a PhD in microbiology ran a real clinical trial 短語搭配

一位拥有微生物学博士学位的科学撰稿人进行了一项真正的临床试验，

where participants were assigned to three groups: 語法

将参与者分成三组：

a low carb diet,

低碳水饮食组，

a low carb diet plus a 1.5 oz chocolate bar,

低碳水饮食加一块1.5盎司巧克力的组，

and a group that maintained their regular diet.

以及保持日常饮食的组。

At the end of three weeks,

三周后，

the chocolate group did lose the most weight, 語法

巧克力组确实减掉了最多体重，

but the journalists consciously used terrible science.

但记者们有意采用了极其糟糕的科学方法。

He used 15 participants and measured 18 different measurements including weight loss,

他只找了15名参与者，却测量了18项不同指标，其中包括减重幅度、

cholesterol, sleep quality, blood pressure, well-being, etc.

胆固醇、睡眠质量、血压、身心状态等等。

And when you use a small group of people and measure a large number of things,

当样本人数很少，测量的项目却很多时，

you're pretty much guaranteed to get a statistically significant result, 用詞

几乎必然会得到一个具有统计显著性的结果，

which Veritasium has an amazing video on here if you want to check out.

关于这个现象，Veritasium制作了一期很棒的视频，有兴趣可以点这里看看。

The result could have easily been something different, 語法

而这个结果原本完全可能是别的，

such as chocolate correlates to lower blood pressure.

比如巧克力与较低的血压相关。

If the study had been peer-reviewed by other researchers, 講解

如果这项研究经过其他研究人员的同行评审，

it would have been called out. 短語動詞

问题早就会被指出来。

So instead, he submitted it to a journal for a fee of 600 Euros, 短語搭配

所以，他干脆花600欧元把论文投给了一家期刊，

making up a fake institution name, the Institute of Diet and Health. 短語動詞

还编造了一个假机构名称——“饮食与健康研究所”。

He then sent out a press release to dozens of media publications, 講解

随后，他向数十家媒体发送了新闻稿，

and very quickly getting slim by chocolate was front page news. 短語搭配

很快，“吃巧克力变瘦”就成了头版新闻。

With that in mind, however, 表達脈絡

不过，即便如此，

we can't dismiss correlation entirely. 短語搭配

我们也不能彻底否定相关性。

Correlative evidence is an essential part of science.

相关性证据是科学不可或缺的一部分。

Double-blind studies are not always possible or ethical to run, 文化背景

双盲研究并非总能开展，也不一定符合伦理，

often leaving correlation as the best evidence available.

这往往使相关性成为当下能获得的最佳证据。

When every possible causative relationship is systematically explored,

当所有可能的因果关系都经过系统探究时，

correlation can be used as a powerful tool 短語搭配

相关性就可以成为一种强有力的工具，

for assessing cause and effect relationships

用来评估因果关系，

and progressing science even further.

并推动科学进一步发展。

Big thanks to Tyler Vigen for providing his charts on these interesting correlations.

非常感谢Tyler Vigen提供这些有趣的相关性图表。

You can check out his website or his book Spurious Correlations for more peculiar examples.

想看更多奇特的例子，可以访问他的网站或阅读他的著作《Spurious Correlations》。

And subscribe for more weekly science videos every Thursday.

别忘了订阅，每周四观看更多科学视频。