如何应对下一场全球经济衰退：英语精读讲义

We focused on this now

我们现在关注这个问题，

because it's been a decade 語法

因为距离

since the global recession of 2008 and 2009

2008年和2009年的全球经济衰退已经过去了十年，

and some interesting and worrying vulnerabilities are also popping up at the moment. 短語動詞

而且目前也出现了一些令人担忧的有趣漏洞。

In 2008 and 2009,

在2008年和2009年，

the dominoes were really set up for quite a nasty financial and economic 習語

多米诺骨牌确实为一场极其糟糕的金融和经济

crisis. This time the economic vulnerabilities aren't quite as large. 語法

危机做好了准备。这次的经济脆弱性没那么大。

They're large enough that we could see a slowdown in GDP growth, 語法

但它们足以让我们看到GDP增长放缓，

a slowdown in trade and things of that nature. 短語搭配

贸易放缓以及类似情况的发生。

The real risk is that our lack of preparedness 表達脈絡

真正的风险在于，我们准备不足

and the lack of room for global cooperation

以及全球合作空间的缺乏，

will turn what starts as kind of a minor downturn 語法

将把一开始的轻微衰退

into something much larger and much more difficult to deal with 短語動詞

变成规模更大、更难应对的危机，

sometime in the next year or two.

时间大概在未来一两年内。

The last big global downturn began in the United States

上一次全球大衰退始于美国，

with the collapse of the housing bubble in the financial sector there. 文化背景

导火索是那里金融业房地产泡沫的破裂。

Next time the trouble is much more likely to start elsewhere

下一次麻烦更有可能从其他地方开始，

and perhaps in the emerging world.

也许是在新兴世界。

Emerging economies are a much larger share of global output

新兴经济体在全球产出中所占的份额

than they used to be. 語法

比过去大得多。

They've also gone on something of a borrowing binge over the last 10 years, 講解

在过去10年里，他们还进行了一场疯狂借贷，

which means that they could be due for a reckoning. 習語

这意味着他们可能要面临清算了。

There are also reasons to be concerned about the Euro area

也有理由对欧元区感到担忧，

and in particular Italy, 表達脈絡

特别是意大利，

which has an enormous public debt problem

该国存在巨额公共债务问题，

and where markets have been feeling a bit jittery 用詞

而且市场对他们偿还债务的能力

about their ability to pay that back 短語動詞

一直感到有些不安，

and that could relaunch the Euro area debt crisis

这可能会重新引发欧元区债务危机，

that we saw about a half decade ago.

就像大约五年前我们看到的那样。

The tools governments normally use to fight a recession

政府通常用来应对经济衰退的工具

won't be available in the same way

在下一次到来时将无法像往常那样

that they normally are the next time around. 短語搭配

发挥同样的作用。

Interest rates will be very low

利率将非常低，

and so we normally rely on central banks to do interest rate cutting

因此我们通常依赖央行降息

to perk up spending, 短語動詞

来刺激消费、

perk up growth

刺激增长，

and they're not going to be able to do that.

但他们将无法做到这一点。

So pretty quickly

所以很快，

they're gonna have to turn to less tested methods. 短語動詞

他们将不得不转向那些未经太多考验的方法。

Money printing to buy bonds,

印钞购买债券，

quantitative easing was something that was used last time. 文化背景

即量化宽松，就是上一次用过的手段。

That's going to be used again,

它将会再次被使用，

but that works in a much more uncertain way

但其效果更加不确定，

and is much more politically contentious 用詞

而且在政治上更具争议性，

than some of the tools that are ordinarily used.

相比起通常使用的那些工具来说。

Within countries, 表達脈絡

在国家内部，

the problem is that uh government is much more polarized.

问题在于政府的极化更加严重。

Across the world you have many more populist parties,

在世界各地，你有更多的民粹主义政党、

nationalist parties

民族主义政党，

and it's going to be very hard to reach the agreement 短語搭配

而且将很难达成协议，

that is necessary to launch big spending programs

这是启动大型支出计划

and things of that nature.

以及类似项目所必需的。

Then you also have disagreements across countries,

然后国家之间也存在分歧，

which means that it's much more likely you have contentious policies,

这意味着你更有可能遇到有争议的政策、

tariffs that go up,

关税上升、

currency wars, 文化背景

货币战争

things of that nature

以及诸如此类的事情，

as countries struggle to deal with the next downturn.

因为各国都在努力应对下一次衰退。

Ideally,

理想情况下，

governments would be taking some steps right now 短語搭配

各国政府现在就应该采取一些措施

to get ready for the next recession.

为下一次经济衰退做准备。

They should be changing their central bank policy targets.

他们应该改变央行的政策目标。

What we've learned is that a low inflation target 表達脈絡

我们已经认识到，低通胀目标

doesn't give central banks enough room to fight recessions 短語搭配

并没有给央行足够的空间来对抗衰退，

before interest rates fall to zero. 文化背景

在利率降至零之前。

They should also be getting their budgets ready,

他们还应该准备好预算，

which means preparing to include measures

这意味着准备纳入一些措施，

that will increase spending automatically

以便在未来经济疲软时

when the economy weakens in the future

自动增加支出，

so that they don't have to have fights in parliament

这样他们就不必在议会中

about whether or not to expand spending 語法

为了是否扩大支出而争吵，

when the time comes. 短語搭配

当那一刻到来时。

But then most important of all, 表達脈絡

但最重要的是，

I think,

我认为，

governments need to coordinate their responses with each other. 短語搭配

各国政府需要相互协调应对措施。

That makes it much more likely 語法

这样就更有可能

that we don't enter a scenario like we did in the 1930s 文化背景

避免陷入像20世纪30年代那样的情境，

when tariff barriers went up,

当时关税壁垒高筑，

when there were currency wars

出现了货币战争

and competitive devaluations

和竞争性贬值，

and when ultimately that led to some pretty significant 表達脈絡

最终导致了一些相当严重的

and nasty geopolitical tension.

恶劣地缘政治紧张局势。