为什么你的选票不算数：英语精读讲义

Welcome to The Problem with First Past the Post Voting Explained by me, CGP Grey.

欢迎收看由我，CGP Grey 解说的《简单多数制投票的问题》。

The royal family has a problem,

王室遇到了麻烦，

but this isn't just any royal family.

但这不是普通的王室。

These are the lions,

他们是狮子，

rulers of the jungle since time immemorial. 習語

自古以来丛林的统治者。

There are protests over the monarchy's absolute power

对于君主制的绝对权力出现了抗议，

and the citizens of the animal kingdom want a say in how they are governed. 短語搭配

动物王国的公民们想要在如何被统治的问题上有发言权。

Bending to the pressure, 習語

迫于压力，

Lion has abdicated his crown 用詞

雄狮放弃了王位，

and King is to be an elected office. 語法

国王将成为一个民选职位。

To ensure a smooth transition, 短語搭配

为了确保平稳过渡，

and because she is craftier than her husband,

也因为她比丈夫更狡猾，

the Queen Lioness is remaining on the throne

狮子王后继续留在王位上，

with the power to set the rules for all elections in her kingdom.

并拥有为王国所有选举制定规则的权力。

She has declared that all citizens get one and only one vote 短語搭配

她宣布所有公民只能投一票，

and that the candidate with the most votes wins the crown.

并且得票最多的候选人赢得王冠。

This method of voting is most often called first past the post, 文化背景

这种投票方法通常被称为简单多数制（first past the post），

awkwardly abbreviated as FPTP or winner take all. 文化背景

尴尬地缩写为 FPTP 或赢者通吃。

This system is simple, fair and logical, right? 表達脈絡

这个系统简单、公平且合乎逻辑，对吧？

Actually,

实际上，

no.

并非如此。

It's a terrible, terrible idea.

这是一个极其糟糕的主意。

Why?

为什么呢？

Well,

好吧，

to see the problems with first past the post,

为了看出简单多数制的问题，

let's watch the first election unfold in the animal kingdom. 語法

让我们来看看动物王国的第一次选举是如何展开的。

It's an exciting time for the burgeoning democracy

对于新兴的民主制度来说，这是一个激动人心的时刻，

and seven hopeful candidates come forward to run and represent their parties. 短語動詞

七位满怀希望的候选人挺身而出，代表他们的政党参选。

They put on their best campaigns,

他们进行了最好的竞选活动，

citizens head out to the polls and the votes are counted. 短語動詞

公民们前往投票站，选票被统计出来。

The results come in as follows. 表達脈絡

结果如下。

Turtle gets 9% of the vote,

乌龟获得了 9% 的选票，

Monkey gets 18,

猴子获得 18，

Gorilla gets 19,

大猩猩获得 19，

Owl gets 13,

猫头鹰获得 13，

Leopard gets 20,

豹子获得 20，

Tiger gets 15

老虎获得 15，

and Snake gets six.

蛇获得了 6。

Under the rules of first past the post,

在简单多数制的规则下，

Leopard is crowned the winner and she gets to rule for the length of her term.

豹子被加冕为赢家，并在其任期内进行统治。

But take another look at the results and you'll see the first problem with this system,

但再看看结果，你就会发现这个系统的第一个问题，

minority rule.

少数人统治。

The vast majority of citizens, 短語搭配

绝大多数的公民，

80%,

80%，

wanted someone else as king

希望其他人成为国王，

but Leopard still won.

但豹子还是赢了。

There were only seven candidates in this race,

这次选举只有七名候选人，

but if you imagine if there had been 20,

但如果你想象如果有 20 名候选人，

she might have only gotten 5% of the vote 語法

她可能只获得了 5% 的选票，

but still been elected.

但仍然当选了。

This problem with minority rule

这种少数人统治的问题，

is only the beginning.

仅仅是个开始。

The second problem with first past the post is that,

简单多数制的第二个问题是，

given enough time, 語法

只要时间足够长，

it results in an inevitable, 短語搭配

它必然会导致一个，

unavoidable two-party system.

无法避免的两党制。

Why?

为什么呢？

To see,

为了弄清楚，

let's watch what happens over several election cycles.

让我们看看几个选举周期后会发生什么。

Leopard has had her term in office

豹子的任期结束了，

and it's again election time in the young democracy.

年轻的民主国家又到了选举的时候。

Only now all the citizens of animal kingdom remember the results from last time.

只是现在，动物王国的所有公民都记得上次的结果。

This information changes how they'll behave,

这个信息改变了他们的行为方式，

particularly Snake and Turtle voters,

特别是蛇和乌龟的选民，

who must face the reality 短語搭配

他们必须面对现实，

that they backed unappealing extremist candidates 用詞

即他们支持了没有吸引力的极端候选人，

who don't have a chance of winning. 短語搭配

他们没有机会获胜。

Turtle voters,

乌龟的选民，

who were unhappy under Leopard rule,

在豹子统治下过得并不开心，

decided to back the candidate who has the best chance of winning,

决定支持最有可能获胜的候选人，

Gorilla.

大猩猩。

Now Snake voters want to vote for Tiger,

现在，蛇的选民想把票投给老虎，

who is the candidate they have the most in common with, 短語搭配

也就是与他们共同点最多的候选人，

but they're afraid to because Leopard is running a negative campaign against her competitors. 講解

但他们不敢，因为豹子正在对她的竞争对手进行抹黑竞选。

Snake voters,

蛇的选民，

not liking the idea of Gorilla rule, 語法

不喜欢大猩猩统治的想法，

vote strategically for Leopard. 短語搭配

策略性地将票投给了豹子。

The final results look like this,

最终结果看起来像这样，

with Leopard getting 26% of the vote

豹子获得了 26% 的选票，

and Gorilla getting 28,

大猩猩获得了 28，

making him the new king. 語法

使他成为了新国王。

Snake and Turtle,

蛇和乌龟，

seeing their dismal results

看到他们惨淡的结果，

and knowing the cost of their campaigns,

并深知竞选的成本，

decide to drop out of future races. 短語動詞

决定退出未来的竞选。

What started out as a seven party system

从最初的七党制，

is now down to five.

现在减少到了五个。

Fast forward to the next election. 表達脈絡

快进到下一次选举。

Only five candidates run

只有五名候选人参选，

and again the voters remember what happened last time.

选民们再次记住了上次发生的事情。

In this election,

在这次选举中，

it's Owl voters who recognize that their candidate cannot win.

轮到猫头鹰的选民认识到他们的候选人无法获胜。

They are centrist voters

他们是中间派选民，

and less ideological than the rest of the animal kingdom.

比动物王国的其他选民意识形态色彩要淡。

As such, 表達脈絡

因此，

they don't really like Gorilla or Leopard.

他们并不是很喜欢大猩猩或豹子。

Both Gorilla and Leopard know this,

大猩猩和豹子都知道这一点，

so they each run negative campaigns to capitalize on the fears of the centrists. 短語搭配

所以他们各自进行了负面竞选，以利用中间派的恐惧。

Owl voters split their vote

猫头鹰的选民分散了他们的选票，

and are mostly voting against the candidate they dislike 語法

主要是在投票反对他们讨厌的候选人，

rather than supporting the candidate they do like.

而不是支持他们喜欢的候选人。

After this election,

这次选举之后，

Gorilla gets 33% of the vote

大猩猩获得了 33% 的选票，

and Leopard gets 34,

而豹子获得了 34，

making her the winner.

使她成为了赢家。

Owl,

猫头鹰，

as did Turtle and Snake before her, 語法

就像在她之前的乌龟和蛇一样，

drops out of the race.

退出了竞选。

In the last election we'll look at,

在我们要看的最后一次选举中，

Monkey and Tiger voters are unhappy.

猴子和老虎的选民很不高兴。

They both really like the candidates they have supported,

他们都很喜欢自己支持的候选人，

but they now have to compromise.

但他们现在不得不妥协。

Monkey voters agree with Gorilla on a few issues, 短語搭配

猴子的选民在几个问题上同意大猩猩，

but they really don't like Leopard.

但他们真的很讨厌豹子。

And Tiger voters agree with Leopard on some issues,

老虎的选民在某些问题上同意豹子，

but they really don't like Gorilla.

但他们真的很讨厌大猩猩。

They strategically abandon their preferred candidate

他们策略性地放弃了他们首选的候选人，

out of fear of the one they disagree with the most becoming king. 短語搭配

因为害怕他们最不同意的那个人成为国王。

The final results are Leopard 49%

最终结果是豹子 49%

and Gorilla 51,

大猩猩 51，

with him being crowned the king.

大猩猩被加冕为王。

Monkey and Tiger are the last candidates to drop out

猴子和老虎是最后退出的候选人，

and now the animal kingdom is left with a two-party system. 短語搭配

现在动物王国只剩下了两党制。

Because of the centrist and swayable Owl voters,

由于中间派和容易动摇的猫头鹰选民，

in future elections

在未来的选举中，

Leopard might take the crown, 習語

豹子可能会夺得王冠，

then Gorilla wins it back,

然后大猩猩又赢了回来，

only to lose it to Leopard again,

结果又输给了豹子，

but the two parties never change.

但这两个政党永远不会改变。

The citizens of animal kingdom ended up with this system,

动物王国的公民最终得到了这个制度，

not because they are lazy voters or because that's what they really wanted, 語法

不是因为他们是懒惰的选民，或者这正是他们想要的，

but because the mathematics of how the system is set up.

而是因为这个系统设置的数学原理。

Inevitably,

不可避免地，

given enough time,

只要时间足够长，

all first past the post systems trend towards two main parties. 短語搭配

所有简单多数制系统都会趋向于两个主要政党。

But the choices of the voters still hasn't changed since that first election.

但自第一次选举以来，选民的选择仍然没有改变。

Only two-fifths of them want either Leopard or Gorilla as their first choice 語法

只有五分之二的人将豹子或大猩猩作为他们的首选，

and three-fifths of them want someone else as their first choice.

而五分之三的人希望其他人成为他们的首选。

It's this majority of the voters that become disinterested in the democratic process 講解

正是这部分占多数的选民对民主过程失去了兴趣，

because they feel they have no meaningful way to express their real preferences. 短語搭配

因为他们觉得自己没有有意义的方式来表达真实的偏好。

But it only gets worse from here. 表達脈絡

但情况只会变得更糟。

If the citizens of animal kingdom are divided into groups before they vote,

如果动物王国的公民在投票前被分成不同的小组，

they are susceptible to gerrymandering. 文化背景

他们就容易受到杰利蝾螈（选区划分不公）的影响。

Gerrymandering is a bit tricky,

杰利蝾螈有点棘手，

but imagine a block of 10 homes,

但想象一个有 10 户人家的街区，

each with one voter inside.

里面各有一名选民。

Three are Leopard voters,

三名是豹子的选民，

three are Gorilla voters and four are Owl voters.

三名是大猩猩的选民，四名是猫头鹰的选民。

If they're divided up into groups before they vote, 短語動詞

如果他们在投票前被分成了不同的小组，

whoever decides where the lines are drawn has enormous influence over who wins the election. 文化背景

那么决定在哪里划线的人对谁赢得选举有着巨大的影响力。

For example,

例如，

if you group the three Leopard voters with the two Owl voters

如果你把三名豹子选民和两名猫头鹰选民分在一组，

and do the same with the three Gorilla voters,

并对三名大猩猩选民做同样的事情，

you can eliminate Owl from the election

你就可以把猫头鹰从选举中淘汰，

even though Owl voters have the largest minority and would win under a straight first past the post vote.

尽管猫头鹰的选民拥有最大的少数群体，并且会在纯粹的简单多数制投票中获胜。

If the Leopard or Gorilla parties are in charge when the voting boundaries are drawn, 短語搭配

如果在划定投票边界时由豹子或大猩猩党掌权，

they have enormous incentive to carve out safe seats for themselves. 文化背景

他们就有巨大的动力为自己划分出安全的席位。

But more on gerrymandering in another video.

但关于杰利蝾螈的更多内容在另一个视频中。

"Bah!"

“呸！”

I hear you say. 表達脈絡

我听到你说。

"Vote third party and change the system."

“把票投给第三党，改变这个系统。”

This brings us to the final and possibly worst problem of first past the post, 表達脈絡

这就把我们带到了简单多数制最后一个、可能也是最糟糕的问题，

the spoiler effect. 文化背景

剧透效应（分票效应）。

Imagine now that it's been years and years of Gorilla or Leopard rule.

现在想象一下大猩猩或豹子统治了许多许多年。

Tiger decides it's time to enter the race.

老虎决定是时候参加竞选了。

He thinks that the voters are tired of the status quo 用詞

他认为选民们已经厌倦了现状，

and he has a shot at winning. 習語

并且他有机会获胜。

He sets up his campaign office,

他设立了竞选办公室，

gets a surprising amount of gold in donations,

获得了数量惊人的黄金捐款，

and gets on the Animal News Network to debate with the main candidates.

并上了动物新闻网与主要候选人进行辩论。

Election night comes around, 短語動詞

选举之夜到了，

but alas, 用詞

但哎呀，

Tiger gets only 15% of the vote,

老虎只获得了 15% 的选票，

mostly from Leopard voters who are closest to him on the political spectrum. 文化背景

主要来自在政治光谱上离他最近的豹子选民。

Gorilla easily beats Leopard and gets to be king.

大猩猩轻松击败豹子并成为了国王。

This is the first past the post system at its worst.

这是简单多数制最糟糕的时候。

The better a third party candidate does, 語法

一个第三党候选人表现得越好，

the more it hurts its own voters

就越会伤害自己的选民，

by guaranteeing a loss for the party they most agree with 短語搭配

因为这确保了他们最同意的政党失败，

and a win for the party they most disagree with.

而他们最不同意的政党获胜。

And don't forget,

别忘了，

Gorilla is no fool. 習語

大猩猩不是傻瓜。

He knows how the system works.

他知道系统是如何运作的。

Where do you think some of those gold donations came from? 語氣意圖

你认为那些黄金捐款是哪里来的？

Meanwhile,

与此同时，

the Queen Lioness is displeased.

狮子王后很不高兴。

She's been observing the elections

她一直在观察选举，

and sees that the system is bad for her subjects.

并发现这个制度对她的臣民不好。

And she's been thinking,

她一直在想，

what makes a good voting system? 語法

什么是好的投票系统？

Well,

那么，

you should be able to vote for the candidate who you like the most without worrying. 語法

你应该能够毫无顾虑地把票投给你最喜欢的候选人。

More choice in representatives is better.

代表有更多的选择会更好。

The system shouldn't be susceptible to gerrymandering

系统不应该容易受到杰利蝾螈的影响，

and it should be open to new political parties. 短語搭配

而且应该对新的政党开放。

Luckily for the Queen,

对王后来说幸运的是，

there are several different voting systems to choose from,

有几种不同的投票系统可供选择，

including the alternative vote,

包括排序复选制，

but that will have to be discussed in detail at another time. 語法

但这将需要在其他时候详细讨论。

Thank you very much for watching.

非常感谢你的观看。