现实是真的吗？模拟假说：英语精读讲义

We humans are unable to experience the true nature of the universe unfiltered.

我们人类无法在未经任何过滤的情况下体验宇宙的真实本质。

Our senses and brains can only process a fraction of the world.

我们的感官和大脑只能处理世界的一小部分。

So we have to use concepts and tools to learn about the true nature of reality.

因此，我们必须使用概念和工具来了解现实的真正本质。

Technological progress not only widened our knowledge about the universe, 語法

技术进步不仅拓宽了我们关于宇宙的知识，

it also made us aware of unsettling possibilities. 短語搭配

它也让我们意识到一些令人不安的可能性。

In the future,

在未来，

it might become possible to simulate entire universes.

模拟整个宇宙可能会成为现实。

But if this is an option,

但是，如果这是一个可选项，

how can we know that it's not already happened?

我们怎么知道它还没有发生呢？

What if we are not creators, 語法

如果我们不是创造者，

but creations?

而是被创造物呢？

Is it possible that we are not real

我们有没有可能并不是真实的，

and we don't even know it?

而且我们甚至不知道这一点？

If our current understanding of physics is correct, 語法

如果我们目前对物理学的理解是正确的，

then it's impossible to simulate the whole universe

那么要模拟整个宇宙

with its trillions and trillions of things.

及其万事万物是不可能的。

But we don't actually need to anyway.

但实际上无论如何我们都不需要。

We only need enough universe to fool the inhabitants of our simulation 短語搭配

我们只需要足够大的宇宙来欺骗我们模拟中的居民，

into thinking that they're real.

让他们认为自己是真实的。

Who needs billions of galaxies?

谁会需要数十亿个星系？

We only need the space our subjects are allowed to explore.

我们只需要我们的实验对象被允许探索的空间。

The vast universe could just be a flat projection

浩瀚的宇宙可能只是一个平面的投影，

and they would have no way to know.

而他们根本无从知晓。

What about small things like cells or bacteria?

那像细胞或细菌这样的小东西呢？

We don't really need them.

我们并不真的需要它们。

When you use a microscope,

当你使用显微镜时，

what you see could be instantly created.

你所看到的可以是被瞬间创造出来的。

Same with atoms.

原子也是如此。

The chair you're sitting on right now

你现在坐的椅子

does not need to be simulated with quadrillions of atoms.

不需要用千万亿个原子来模拟。

We just need the outermost layer of it.

我们只需要它的最外层。

It might be empty inside

里面可能是空的，

until you decide to break it open. 語法

直到你决定把它切开。

Your body might feel like it's filled with bubbly things,

你的身体可能感觉里面充满了各种跳动的东西，

but it might be empty until you open it.

但在你剖开它之前，它可能是空的。

The minimum requirement for our simulation

我们模拟的最低要求

is only the consciousness of our virtual humans.

仅仅是我们虚拟人类的意识。

Our subjects just need to think the simulation is real.

我们的实验对象只需要认为模拟是真实的就行。

Okay,

那么，

so are we being simulated?

我们正在被模拟吗？

Well, maybe,

嗯，也许吧，

but there are a few conditions that need to be met. 短語搭配

但需要满足一些条件。

Obviously,

显然，

we have no authority over this topic,

我们在这个话题上毫无权威，

so please take everything we say with a grain of salt. 習語

所以对我们所说的话请持保留态度。

Based on a modified version of the original simulation argument by Nick Bostrom,

基于 Nick Bostrom 原始模拟假说的修改版，

we have five assumptions for you.

我们为你准备了五个假设。

If they're true,

如果它们是真的，

you, dear viewer,

亲爱的观众，你

are living in a simulation.

正生活在一个模拟之中。

Assumption one:

假设一：

It's possible to simulate consciousness.

模拟意识是可能的。

Nobody knows what consciousness is.

没有人知道意识到底是什么。

For the sake of argument, 短語搭配

为了讨论方便，

let's assume that you could generate consciousness by simulating a brain.

假设你可以通过模拟大脑来产生意识。

Brains are pretty complex.

大脑相当复杂。

If you count every interaction between synapses as one operation, 短語搭配

如果你把突触之间的每一次相互作用算作一次运算，

your brain runs at about 10 to the power of 17,

你的大脑大约以10的17次方，

or 100 million billion operations per second.

即每秒1亿亿次运算的速度运行。

Let's generously assume we need 10 to the power of 20 operations

我们慷慨地假设，我们需要10的20次方次运算

to simulate 1 second of human consciousness.

来模拟1秒钟的人类意识。

But we don't want to simulate just one human,

但我们不想只模拟一个人类，

we want to simulate all of human history at once,

我们想一次性模拟整个人类历史，

so we can skip around. 短語動詞

这样我们就可以随意跳跃。

Let's say we want to simulate 200 billion humans with an average lifespan of 50 years.

假设我们想模拟2000亿个平均寿命为50年的人类。

1 year has 30 million seconds times 50 years

一年有3000万秒乘以50年，

times 200 billion humans

乘以2000亿人，

times 10 to the power of 20 operations.

乘以10的20次方次运算。

So we need a computer able to handle

因此，我们需要一台能够处理

a million trillion trillion trillion operations per second.

每秒一百万亿亿亿亿次运算的计算机。

More operations than there are stars in the observable universe. 語法

运算次数比可观测宇宙中的恒星还要多。

A computer like this is just impossible.

这样的计算机根本不可能存在。

Except maybe it isn't. 表達脈絡

除非，也许并非如此。

Assumption two:

假设二：

Technological progress will not stop anytime soon. 短語搭配

技术进步不会在近期停止。

If we assume that technological progress continues in a similar fashion as it has so far, 短語搭配

如果我们假设技术进步以与目前相似的方式继续下去，

then there might be galaxy-spanning civilizations with unlimited computer power at some point.

那么在某个时候可能会出现拥有无限计算能力的跨星系文明。

Beings on a technology level so advanced that we could barely distinguish them from gods. 短語搭配

这些存在的科技水平如此先进，以至于我们几乎无法将他们与神区分开来。

A computer that can handle a million trillion trillion trillion operations is serious business, 習語

一台能处理一百万亿亿亿亿次运算的计算机绝非儿戏，

but there are actually concepts for computers which could handle this.

但实际上确实存在能够处理这种运算的计算机概念。

The Matrioshka brain is a theoretical megastructure

俄罗斯套娃脑是一个理论上的巨型结构，

made up of billions of parts orbiting a star 短語動詞

由数十亿个部件组成，绕着恒星运行，

feeding on its radiation. 短語動詞

靠吸收它的辐射来提供能量。

A computer of this scale would have enough power to simulate many thousands,

这种规模的计算机将有足够的计算能力同时模拟成千上万，

if not millions of humanities, 表達脈絡

甚至数以百万计的人类文明，

at the same time.

同时进行。

Other technologies,

其他技术，

like high-end future quantum computers,

比如未来高端的量子计算机，

might lower the size drastically,

可能会大幅缩小尺寸，

so it might be possible to do this

所以也许可以通过

with a structure the size of a large city

一个大城市那么大，

or even smaller.

甚至更小的结构来实现这一点。

But only if there's still someone around to build the computer. 語法

但前提是，还得有人来建造这台计算机。

Assumption three:

假设三：

Advanced civilizations don't destroy themselves.

先进文明不会自我毁灭。

If there is a point at which all civilizations destroy themselves, 語法

如果到了某个阶段，所有文明都会毁灭自己，

this whole discussion ends here.

那么整个讨论就到此为止。

Looking into space,

望向太空，

you'd expect a universe filled with millions of alien civilizations, 表達脈絡

你会以为宇宙中充满了数以百万计的外星文明，

but we see nobody.

但我们什么也没看到。

The reason for this might be great filters. 語法

这背后的原因可能就是大过滤器。

Great filters are barriers life has to overcome, 語法

大过滤器是生命必须克服的障碍，

like nuclear war,

比如核战争、

asteroids, climate change,

小行星、气候变化、

or a black hole generator.

或者是制造出黑洞。

If life is inherently self-destructive,

如果生命本质上具有自我毁灭的倾向，

then there are no simulations.

那就不会有什么模拟存在。

We explain this in more detail in our Fermi Paradox video.

我们在我们的“费米悖论”视频中有更详细的解释。

Assumption four:

假设四：

Super advanced civilizations want to run simulations.

超级先进文明想要进行模拟。

When we speak of post-human civilizations,

当我们谈论后人类文明时，

we don't know what we're dealing with. 短語動詞

我们不知道我们在面对什么。

To think we know what beings as powerful as gods 語法

认为我们知道像神一样强大的存在

want is pretty arrogant.

想要什么是相当傲慢的。

Imagine the smartest ant on Earth living next to an amusement park.

想象一下，地球上最聪明的蚂蚁住在游乐园旁边。

It's curious about what humans are up to, 短語動詞

它对人类在干什么很好奇，

so you try to explain.

所以你试图解释。

Unfortunately,

不幸的是，

the ant just doesn't understand.

蚂蚁根本无法理解。

The concept of roller coasters

过山车、

and standing in lines and holidays and fun

排队、假期和乐趣的概念，

doesn't make sense to an ant living an ant life. 短語搭配

对于一只过着蚂蚁生活的蚂蚁来说是毫无意义的。

It's the same with us and a post-human being. 短語搭配

我们和后人类存在之间也是如此。

Compared to them, 表達脈絡

与他们相比，

we are ants.

我们就是蚂蚁。

Running simulations for fun or science

为了好玩或科学而运行模拟，

might be an absurdly stupid idea to them.

对他们来说可能是一个荒谬愚蠢的想法。

But if they do want to run simulations for whatever reasons

但如果他们出于任何原因确实想运行模拟，

and assumptions 1 to 3 are true too,

而且假设1到3也是真的，

then the chances are not zero 語法

那么你生活在模拟中的几率

that you are living inside a simulation.

就不是零。

Assumption five:

假设五：

If there are a lot of simulations,

如果存在大量的模拟，

you are probably inside a simulation.

你很有可能就在模拟之中。

If there are simulated civilizations,

如果存在被模拟的文明，

it's likely that there are a lot of them.

那么它们很可能会有很多。

After all, 表達脈絡

毕竟，

we assume that post-human beings have access to practically unlimited computing power. 短語搭配

我们假设后人类存在可以获得几乎无限的计算能力。

So if they run simulations,

所以，如果他们进行模拟，

it would be convenient to run millions or even billions of them.

运行几百万甚至几十亿个模拟会很方便。

If there are billions of simulated universes,

如果有几十亿个模拟宇宙，

there are probably trillions and trillions of simulated conscious beings,

可能就有无数个被模拟的意识生物，

which would mean that the vast majority of all conscious beings 短語搭配

这将意味着绝大多数

that will ever have existed are simulated. 語法

曾经存在过的意识生物都是被模拟出来的。

So for every conscious being made of flesh,

所以，对于每一个有血有肉的意识生物来说，

a billion simulated ones exist.

都有十亿个被模拟的生物存在。

Since we have no way of knowing if we are simulated or not, 短語搭配

既然我们无法判断自己是否被模拟，

in this case

在这种情况下，

the chances of you being one of the 999,999,999 simulated ones 語法

你成为那999,999,999个被模拟者之一的几率

are pretty high.

是相当高的。

So what you consider reality

所以你认为的现实，

might not be real at all. 語法

可能根本不是真实的。

You really might be simulated.

你真的可能是被模拟出来的。

All of this is based on a lot of assumptions 短語搭配

所有这些都基于很多假设，

that we can't really test right now,

我们现在还无法真正去验证，

so many scientists disagree with this whole thought experiment.

所以许多科学家不同意这个思维实验。

So don't burn your house down to test

所以别把房子烧了来测试

if there will be glitches.

是否会出现系统故障。

If you are simulated, 語法

如果你是被模拟的，

not that much changes for you.

对你来说并没有太多改变。

You might be on a small planet speeding through eternal nothingness

你可能是在一颗小行星上穿梭于永恒的虚无之中，

or a simulation inside a computer.

或者只是电脑里的一段模拟。

Your existence does not become more or less scary and bizarre. 短語搭配

你的存在并不会变得更可怕或更怪异。

All we can hope to do is try to live good lives 語法

我们所能指望的，就是努力过好每一天，

and have a good time

享受美好时光，

and hope that if we actually are simulations in a supercomputer

并祈祷如果我们真的是超级计算机里的模拟程序，

nobody trips over the power cable. 短語動詞

没有人会被电源线绊倒。

Oh.

噢。

Oh.

噢。

Oh, no.

噢，不。

I think I just unplugged the simulation.

我好像刚把模拟器拔了。

But what if that doesn't matter?

但如果这都不重要呢？

What if we are in one right now?

如果我们现在就在一个模拟里呢？

What if you are simulated?

如果你是被模拟出来的呢？

Jake over at Vsauce3 is looking into that. 短語動詞

Vsauce3 的 Jake 正在研究这个问题。

Click here to watch his video and subscribe to his channel.

点击这里观看他的视频并订阅他的频道。

Why are you still here?

为什么你还在这里？

Go over to Vsauce3,

去 Vsauce3 看看吧，

watch the video and subscribe.

观看视频并订阅。

We promise it's worth your time.

我们保证这绝对值得你花时间。