新冠疫情：对经济的打击会有多严重？：英语精读讲义

Around the world, economies are crumbling. 習語

纵观全球，各地经济正在崩溃。

Since the coronavirus outbreak,

自新冠疫情爆发以来，

the price of every vital commodity has fallen.

每种重要大宗商品的价格都在下跌。

We're seeing a lot of these markets hit.

我们看到很多此类市场受到了打击。

Coronavirus has oil below $50 a barrel.

新冠疫情使油价跌破了每桶50美元。

US demand in China has dropped off substantially. 短語動詞

美国在中国的需求大幅下降。

You’re impacting the demand for copper, iron ore,

你正在影响对铜、铁矿石的需求，

even gold is going down.

甚至黄金的价格也在下跌。

America's Department of Labor has recorded the highest ever number of new unemployment claims in the past 2 weeks. 用詞

过去两周，美国劳工部记录了有史以来最高的新增失业救济申请人数。

just under 10 million.

接近一千万。

Governments had modeled the impact of a pandemic on their economies, 短語搭配

尽管各国政府曾对疫情给经济带来的影响进行过建模预测，

but were in no way prepared. 短語搭配

但他们完全没有做好准备。

The indication is that um economic activity has been sledgehammered 習語

迹象表明，经济活动遭受了重创，

uh in the course of a couple of weeks.

就在短短几周之内。

Just how deep is the crisis for the world economy? 語法

那么世界经济的危机究竟有多深呢？

Over the past 2 months,

在过去的两个月里，

the world's biggest stock markets have turned red. 習語

全球最大的股票市场已纷纷亮起红灯。

It falls like that because investors suddenly have to recalculate

股市之所以这样下跌，是因为投资者突然不得不重新计算

the future for the economy and the future for corporate profits

经济的未来以及企业未来的利润，

and adjust their figures sharply downwards.

并大幅向下调整他们的预期数据。

And then they tend to sell uh assets uh which are the most liquid. 講解

然后他们往往会抛售流动性最强的资产。

Often those are the big companies in the S&P 500.

通常那些是标普500指数中的大型企业。

The S&P 500 had its quickest bear market decline in history. 用詞

标普500指数经历了历史上最快跌入熊市的阶段。

When the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, 文化背景

在2000年互联网泡沫破裂时，

it took almost 2 years for the S&P 500 to drop by 49%.

标普500指数花了近2年时间才下跌了49%。

The 2007 to 2009 financial crisis led to a fall of almost 60% 短語搭配

2007年至2009年的金融危机导致了近60%的下跌，

in just over a year.

历时仅仅一年多。

The coronavirus pandemic has already seen the market fall by a third

而新冠疫情已经让市场跌去了三分之一，

in just 1 month.

仅仅在一个月内。

This crash has been so quick because it was such a shock. 語法

这次崩盘之所以如此迅速，是因为它带来了极大的震动。

In the financial crisis,

在金融危机中，

there was actually quite a long lead up. 用詞

实际上有相当长的一段酝酿期。

It was a good long 18 months of bad news. 用詞

那是足足长达18个月的坏消息。

But this is genuinely a uh deus ex machina, 文化背景

但这次真的是“天降神兵”，

a bolt from the blue, 習語

简直是晴天霹雳，

uh where investors said,

投资者表示：

"We're just not pricing in the risk of a pandemic." 短語動詞

“我们根本没有将大流行的风险计入价格中。”

And of course, governments have never in the past

当然，各国政府过去也从未

imposed the kind of lockdown on a global economy

对全球经济实施过这种规模的封锁，

uh that they have this time.

像他们这次所做的那样。

So, this was not something people had in their models.

所以，这不是人们在他们的预测模型中考虑到的事情。

In an effort to stop the deadly virus, 短語搭配

为了阻止这种致命的病毒，

businesses have been forced to close 語法

企业被迫关闭，

and citizens isolated at home on an unprecedented scale worldwide. 短語搭配

而公民们在全球范围内以前所未有的规模居家隔离。

It's caused a unique economic crisis,

这引发了一场独特的经济危机，

the impact of which will be greater on some industries in particular. 語法

其影响对某些特定行业尤为巨大。

The industries which are hit hardest are those which are related to the consumer.

受打击最严重的行业是那些与消费者相关的行业。

So, that's retailing,

比如零售业，

that's entertainment,

比如娱乐业，

that's hospitality, both hotels and restaurants,

比如酒店和餐饮等服务业，

many of which have simply been locked down. 短語動詞

其中许多干脆被直接封锁了。

And many of these companies will have high costs

而这些公司中的许多还要面临高昂的成本，

uh which they'll need to keep meeting.

他们需要继续支付这些开销。

So, suddenly you have lots of costs continuing and absolutely no revenues,

所以，突然间你有大量成本在持续，却完全没有收入，

uh which is the worst possible outcome for these businesses.

这对这些企业来说是最糟糕的结果。

But even if a business isn't directly losing out from people staying at home, 短語動詞

但即使企业没有因为人们呆在家里而直接遭受损失，

lockdowns are having a devastating ripple effect. 習語

封锁也正在产生毁灭性的连锁反应。

Modern industry relies on goods and materials crossing borders.

现代工业依赖于跨境运输的货物和材料。

When they can't, production around the world is endangered.

当它们无法跨国流动时，全球的生产都会受到威胁。

The coronavirus caused a break in the biggest link in this vast global supply chain. 用詞

新冠病毒在这个庞大的全球供应链的最大环节上造成了断裂。

The problem started in China

问题始于中国，

where uh the disease started really to be seen in December

该疾病在12月真正开始显现，

and then had a huge impact in January.

随后在1月产生了巨大的影响。

And China is the bedrock of the global supply chain. 習語

而中国是全球供应链的基石。

Businesses started to look for alternative suppliers,

企业开始寻找替代供应商，

uh but of course that was a race to try and find the few that had spare capacity. 用詞

但当然这是一场争相寻找少数还有闲置产能的供应商的竞赛。

As the virus spread,

随着病毒的传播，

alternative suppliers have become fewer and further between. 習語

替代供应商变得越来越少，越来越难找。

It's going to take a very, very long time 語法

他们将需要非常、非常长的时间

uh for them to rebuild their supply chains.

来重建他们的供应链。

And in the interim, because there's very little demand uh for finished products, 短語搭配

而在此期间，由于对制成品的需求极小，

few companies are going to want to uh resurrect that supply chain instantly 習語

几乎没有公司会想立即恢复那个供应链，

until they know that the economy has settled down. 短語動詞

直到他们知道经济已经稳定下来。

The true extent of the damage to the world economy

对世界经济造成的损害的真实程度，

will only start to become clear with the speed and strength of its recovery.

只有通过其复苏的速度和力度才能开始变得清晰。

The big question that economists are still trying to grapple with 短語搭配

经济学家们仍在努力解决的最大问题，

is whether this is what they call a V-shaped uh recession 文化背景

是这到底是一场所谓的V型衰退，

or a U-shaped recession

还是U型衰退，

or an L-shaped recession.

或者是L型衰退。

In a V-shaped recession,

在V型衰退中，

the economy suffers a rapid fall,

经济经历快速下滑，

but rebounds very quickly.

但反弹非常迅速。

As opposed to a longer economic trough before recovery. 講解

这与复苏前较长的经济低谷期不同。

Or long-term recession.

或者长期的经济衰退。

Now, the most encouraging news we've had so far

现在，我们迄今得到的最令人鼓舞的消息是，

is that in China,

在中国，

uh which was the first economy to be hit,

这个最早受到打击的经济体中，

the latest figures suggest the most hopeful possibility,

最新数据表明了最有希望的可能性，

which is that this is a V-shaped recession.

那就是这是一次V型衰退。

Now, if China can do that,

那么，如果中国能做到这一点，

the hope is that Europe and America can do that

人们希望欧洲和美国也能做到，

um later on when the lockdowns are lifted. 短語搭配

在日后解除封锁的时候。

Europeans and Americans are also being helped by unprecedented government responses.

欧洲人和美国人也得到了政府史无前例的援助。

330 billion pounds.

3300亿英镑。

$2.2 trillion dollars in urgently needed relief. 用詞

2.2万亿美元急需的救济金。

These short-term protections might reduce the damage the economy suffers, 語法

这些短期的保护措施可能会减少经济遭受的损害，

but this pandemic could last a long time.

但这场疫情可能会持续很长时间。

So, the difficult calculation for governments

因此，对于政府来说，艰难的计算在于，

is trading off the lives of people who will die from the coronavirus 短語動詞

在死于新冠病毒的生命

versus the economic damage uh to the economy.

与经济受到的损害之间进行权衡。

Year-long lockdowns would cost America and the Eurozone 語法

长达一年的封锁将使美国和欧元区损失

perhaps a third of their GDP.

大约三分之一的国内生产总值（GDP）。

Models looking at America suggest that ending lockdowns would lessen that damage,

针对美国的数据模型表明，结束封锁将减轻这种损失，

but would lead to around 1 million extra deaths.

但会导致额外约100万人死亡。

In the last 75 years since the Second World War,

在二战以来的这75年里，

we've seen nothing like this. 短語搭配

我们从未见过类似的情况。

Governments have not reacted on this scale.

政府也从未做出过如此规模的反应。

So, although it's terrible, 表達脈絡

所以，尽管这很可怕，

uh in a way it shows our humanity

但在某种程度上它展现了我们的人性，

that we want to reduce uh the number of deaths so much 語法

也就是我们如此渴望减少死亡人数，

that we're willing to put up with all these restrictions 短語動詞

以至于我们愿意忍受所有这些限制，

and we're willing to accept a big hit to economic activity. 習語

并且愿意接受经济活动遭受的巨大打击。

I'm Philip Coggan.

我是 Philip Coggan。

I'm reporting for The Economist on the financial crisis

我在为《经济学人》报道这场

that's been created by the pandemic.

由疫情引发的金融危机。

If you want to read more,

如果你想阅读更多内容，

click on the link opposite.

请点击对面的链接。

And thank you for watching.

感谢您的收看。