6分钟看懂通货膨胀：英语精读讲义

No.

不。

No cool intro,

没有酷炫的开场，

no fancy music.

没有华丽的音乐。

I just want to explain inflation in 6 minutes.

我只想用6分钟讲清楚通货膨胀。

I have a degree in economics.

我有经济学学位。

I spent years trying to understand this.

我花了好几年才弄懂这件事。

So let's see if I can boil it down. 短語動詞

所以，看看我能不能把它浓缩讲明白。

What is inflation?

什么是通货膨胀？

Why is it rising?

为什么通胀在上升？

Why are people worried?

为什么人们会担心？

And what do interest rates have to do with it? 短語搭配

这和利率又有什么关系？

The Federal Reserve is raising the interest rate.

美联储正在加息。

FED is set to raise interest rates. 語法

美联储准备加息。

highest inflation in 40 years.

40年来最高的通胀率。

Listen.

听我说。

I know that I make long videos.

我知道，我做的视频都很长。

I'm into nuance, I'm into backstory.

我喜欢探究细微差别，也喜欢讲背景故事。

Well, this isn't that.

不过，这次不是那种视频。

This is quick.

这次很快。

No, really.

不，真的。

This is quick.

真的很快。

Let's go.

开始吧。

Okay, first up, the simplest definition.

好，先从最简单的定义讲起。

Inflation is when there is more money in the economy than stuff to spend it on.

通胀就是经济中的钱，比可供人们购买的东西更多。

But if you're like me, the simplest definition never does it for you. 習語

但如果你和我一样，最简单的定义从来都不能让你真正理解。

So let's try this.

所以，我们换个方式。

Imagine a village that has one market where people buy all of their stuff,

想象一个村庄，里面只有一个市场，村民所有东西都在那里买，

their food, their clothes.

食物、衣服都在那里买。

But one day the government shows up because they're worried about the economy of this village.

但有一天，政府来了，因为他们担心这个村庄的经济。

So they tell the people that if they want to take out a loan, 短語動詞

于是他们告诉村民，如果想贷款，

they're going to make sure that the banks will not charge them a high interest rate.

政府会确保银行不会收取高额利息。

They want to encourage the people to take out loans and spend money.

他们想鼓励村民贷款、花钱。

Oh, and they also drop off a giant pile of cash for everyone in the village.

对了，他们还给村里的每个人送来了一大堆现金。

And everyone in the village is like, sweet. 語氣意圖

村里所有人都觉得：太棒了。

I'm feeling pretty rich.

我感觉自己挺有钱的。

Villagers now are going to their market and they're buying way more stuff.

现在，村民纷纷去市场，买的东西比以前多得多。

Many of them have been eyeing the fancy electric bike in the market 用詞

很多人早就看上了市场里那辆高档电动自行车，

that before they couldn't justify, 用詞

以前觉得没理由买，

but now they totally can because they have all this new money. 語法

但现在有了这么多新拿到的钱，当然可以买了。

The store owner's like, sweet, this is great for business.

店主心想：太棒了，这下生意可好了。

But he's running out of bikes.

可他的自行车快卖光了。

In fact, he's running out of everything. 短語動詞

事实上，他所有东西都快卖光了。

Because now all of these people have extra money and they're buying way more than they used to. 語法

因为大家现在都有了额外的钱，买的东西比以前多得多。

The store owner is like, I can't keep up with all this demand. 短語動詞

店主心想：这么大的需求，我根本应付不过来。

I should raise prices.

我得涨价。

And that is inflation.

这就是通货膨胀。

But the village is all of us and the market is the entire economy. 表達脈絡

而这个村庄就是我们所有人，市场就是整个经济。

When there's extra money floating around and people want to spend it faster than businesses can make stuff, 語法

当外面的闲钱变多，人们花钱的速度又比企业生产商品的速度快时，

then all of the businesses in all of the industries raise their prices.

各行各业的所有企业就都会涨价。

And that is inflation.

这就是通货膨胀。

It's a natural part of the economy.

它是经济运行中自然的一部分。

It's kind of a good thing in small doses because it means that the economy is growing. 習語

小幅通胀算是件好事，因为它意味着经济正在增长。

And it's why movie tickets used to be 25 cents and now they're like $15. 語法

这就是为什么电影票以前只要25美分，现在却要差不多15美元。

And slowly over time, it's fine.

只要随着时间缓慢上涨，就没问题。

Okay, let's go back to the village and see what happens if we keep going at this rate. 短語搭配

好，我们回到那个村庄，看看照这个速度继续下去会发生什么。

The store owner has now doubled his prices on bikes.

店主现在把自行车的价格翻了一倍。

The interest rate is super low, so he takes out a loan to build a new factory to make bikes.

利率非常低，所以他贷款建了一座新工厂来生产自行车。

This is good.

这是好事。

He's growing a business.

他的生意正在扩张。

But the government money eventually runs out and his prices are still double.

但政府发的钱最终花完了，而他的价格还是原来的两倍。

But now the store owner has no one to come buy all of his new bikes.

可现在，已经没人来买他的那些新自行车了。

And now he has this factory and more employees, but no customers.

他如今有了这座工厂和更多员工，却没有顾客。

He has to shut down the factory, lay off everyone, 短語動詞

他只好关掉工厂，解雇所有人，

and slowly start lowering his prices.

再慢慢开始降价。

This is called recession.

这就叫经济衰退。

When COVID shut down the world, governments gave us money, free money.

新冠疫情让全世界停摆时，各国政府给我们发钱——白送的钱。

They're like, don't panic and hoard all your money.

他们的意思是：别慌，也别把钱全囤起来。

Instead, spend and borrow and keep the economy going. 短語搭配

要花钱、借钱，让经济继续运转。

Here in the US, they literally sent us $3,200 checks. 用詞

在美国，他们真的给我们寄了3200美元的支票。

They gave 600 bucks a week to people who were unemployed for months and months and months. 用詞

对于失业的人，他们一连好几个月每周发600美元。

They gave subsidies to people with kids.

有孩子的家庭也拿到了补贴。

They increased spending on food stamps. 文化背景

政府还增加了食品券支出。

I mean, trillions and trillions of dollars of stimulus money. 用詞

我说的可是数万亿美元、再加数万亿美元的刺激资金。

This was vital aid to people in need.

对有需要的人来说，这是至关重要的援助。

But even people who didn't lose a job got a check in the mail.

但连没有失业的人也收到了寄来的支票。

It was free money for everyone.

人人都有免费的钱拿。

And we spent it.

而我们把钱花掉了。

I just picked up myself a new bike.

我刚给自己买了辆新自行车。

Demand is up across the country.

全国各地的需求都在上升。

It's time to grind Peloton.

是时候上Peloton猛练了。

We all just got these big checks from the government.

我们都刚收到政府寄来的大额支票。

During a pandemic, we're like, YOLO, I'm buying a boat or a Peloton or whatever. 文化背景

疫情期间，我们想：人生只有一次，买艘船、买台Peloton，管它呢。

Pokemon cards.

宝可梦卡牌。

There's Netflix.

还有Netflix。

Fortnite.

Fortnite。

A new motor.

一台新发动机。

Peloton.

Peloton。

Good soak in a hot tub.

在热水浴缸里舒舒服服泡一泡。

Animal Crossing.

《集合啦！动物森友会》。

Push it out a little bit so it--

往外推一点，好让它——

No, don't you dare.

不，你敢！

But pair all this new spending with the fact that the pandemic also made it harder 語法

但在所有这些新增消费之外，疫情还让一件事变得更难：

for factories and ships and retailers to get us all this stuff.

工厂、货船和零售商更难把这些东西送到我们手上。

Supply chain issue. 用詞

供应链问题。

Global supply chain.

全球供应链。

Supply chain.

供应链。

Supply chain.

供应链。

Now you have an economy where people have way more money than normal and they're ready to spend it,

于是，经济中人们的钱比平时多得多，也已经准备好花掉，

but the economy can't get them stuff fast enough.

但整个经济却无法足够快地把商品送到他们手中。

So what do businesses do with all this insane new demand? 表達脈絡

面对这种疯狂增长的新需求，企业会怎么做？

They raise prices all at the same time and that is inflation.

它们同时涨价，这就是通货膨胀。

I feel like we're getting this at this point.

讲到这里，我觉得大家应该明白了。

But what do interest rates have to do with all this?

但利率和这一切到底有什么关系？

Raising the interest rate.

提高利率。

Interest rate.

利率。

Or the Fed.

或者说，美联储。

Fed is Federal Reserve. 文化背景

Fed就是美国联邦储备系统。

The Federal Reserve.

美国联邦储备系统。

Most countries have a central bank, the puppet master of the economy, 講解

大多数国家都有中央银行，也就是操纵经济的幕后主宰，

the bank of all banks for that country.

是这个国家所有银行的银行。

But it's not like a normal bank that stores our money and then lends it out and collects interest to make profit. 短語動詞

但它不像普通银行那样，存放我们的钱，再贷出去收取利息来赚钱。

That's what a normal private bank does.

那是普通私营银行做的事。

The central bank, which we call the Fed here in the US,

中央银行，在美国我们称之为美联储，

is run by the government.

由政府管理。

So their job is to set the rules or policies

所以，它的职责是制定规则或政策，

that all the other banks have to follow.

让其他所有银行遵守。

And the central bank isn't motivated by profit,

中央银行的动力并不是盈利，

but rather their job is to babysit the economy, 講解

它的职责其实是照看经济，

to keep it growing, 表達脈絡

让经济持续增长，

to make sure people have jobs,

确保人们有工作，

to make sure that prices don't fluctuate too much

确保物价不会波动太大，

so that we can keep growing nicely.

让我们能够稳步增长。

No slowdown, no recession.

不放缓，也不衰退。

That is what the Fed is there for. 語法

这就是美联储存在的意义。

But seriously, the Fed is like a puppet master and we are the puppets and it's kind of creepy.

但说真的，美联储就像提线木偶师，我们则是木偶，想想还挺瘆人的。

They pull strings in the economy 習語

它通过牵动经济中的各种线，

to get us to spend our money in a certain way, 語法

让我们以特定方式花钱，

which in turn affects how much businesses raise or drop their prices. 表達脈絡

进而影响企业把价格提高或降低多少。

And guess what?

猜怎么着？

It totally works.

这招真的管用。

One of the strings that they have to pull in the economy is called the interest rate.

它在经济中可以牵动的一根线，就叫利率。

Want to borrow money to buy a car or a house

想借钱买车、买房，

or expand your business?

或者扩大生意吗？

You're going to be way more likely to do that if you only have to pay 2% interest on that loan 語法

如果这笔贷款只需要付2%的利息，你这么做的可能性会大得多，

as opposed to like 6%. 短語搭配

而不是利息高达6%左右。

Lower interest rates equal people and businesses want to borrow and spend money.

利率越低，人们和企业就越想借钱和花钱。

So, during the pandemic, the central bank was like,

所以疫情期间，中央银行的想法是：

we need everyone to spend money.

我们得让所有人都花钱。

So they lowered the interest rate and people borrowed and people spent and it totally worked.

于是，它降低了利率，人们开始借钱、花钱，而且这招真的奏效了。

We're like freaking puppets.

我们简直就是该死的木偶。

So a lower interest rate helped stimulate the economy. 短語搭配

所以，较低的利率帮助刺激了经济。

But once again, we're in this same place

但我们又一次来到了同样的境地：

where there's now too much money to borrow and spend

现在可供借贷和消费的钱太多，

and not enough goods and services to spend it on.

可供购买的商品和服务却不够。

So what do businesses do all at the same time?

那么，所有企业会同时怎么做？

They raise prices to meet all this new demand all at the same time.

它们会同时涨价，以应对所有这些新需求。

And now your money is worth less and that is inflation.

于是，你的钱贬值了，这就是通货膨胀。

Home prices rising at their highest rate.

房价涨幅创下新高。

Astronomical bidding wars. 習語

抢房竞价大战激烈得惊人。

Rents are going up.

租金也在上涨。

By nearly 24%.

涨幅接近24%。

So that's what's happening right now.

这就是眼下正在发生的事。

All the prices are rising kind of at the same time.

各种价格差不多都在同时上涨。

What that means is that your $100 bill is now worth 8% less than it was last year. 表達脈絡

这意味着，你手里的100美元现在比去年贬值了8%。

Like the same money is worth less because your purchasing power just got diluted. 講解

也就是说，同样的钱价值更低了，因为你的购买力被稀释了。

And imagine if that keeps happening.

想象一下，如果这种情况持续下去。

Like instead of 8%, it's 50%.

比如不是8%，而是50%。

Now your $100 bill is worth what $50 used to be.

现在的100美元，只相当于以前的50美元。

And that's when people start to freak out. 短語動詞

这时，人们就开始慌了。

And our economy that's built on human psychology

而我们这个建立在人类心理之上的经济

starts to falter

也开始摇摇欲坠，

and we fall into a recession or a depression 短語搭配

我们会陷入经济衰退，甚至经济大萧条，

even if it gets real bad. 用詞

如果情况真的变得非常糟的话。

Which is exactly what the Fed is built to avoid.

而美联储的设立，正是为了避免这种情况。

So, they're back to pulling their strings and they've started raising rates.

所以，它又开始牵线操控，并着手提高利率。

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates.

美联储正在加息。

The Federal Reserve taking action

美联储正在采取行动，

to try and curb rising inflation. 短語搭配

力图遏制不断上升的通胀。

They're gently raising the interest rate

它在缓慢提高利率，

to cool down all of this hardcore spending and borrowing. 講解

为这种疯狂的消费和借贷降温。

See if they can steer the ship back on course. 習語

看看能不能让这艘船重回正轨。

And let's hope it works.

希望这招能奏效。

All right, did we do it?

好了，我们做到了吗？

Did we do did we do it in the time period that I promised I would?

我们有没有、有没有在我承诺的时间内讲完？

We'll find out.

马上揭晓。

Uh

呃……

Okay, last thing I want to say is

好，我最后还想说一件事，

a thing that didn't make it into my little inflation explainer. 短語動詞

一件没能放进这个通胀小科普里的事。

But a few years ago when I worked at Vox, I went to Venezuela and Colombia to do a borders series.

几年前我还在Vox工作时，曾前往委内瑞拉和哥伦比亚制作一个边境系列节目。

I saw inflation up close and personal 習語

我在那里亲眼见识了通货膨胀，

because in Venezuela, inflation got so out of control 短語搭配

因为在委内瑞拉，通胀彻底失去了控制，

and they couldn't the Fed, the puppet master

而他们的央行，也就是那个幕后操纵者，

couldn't like figure out how to get it back in control 講解

怎么也想不出办法让局面恢复控制，

that their money became worth nothing.

结果他们的钱变得一文不值。

The prices went up so high that their money became basically worthless. 語法

物价涨得太高，他们的钱基本上成了废纸。

You needed like a pile of cash to buy bread.

买一块面包都需要一大摞现金。

So, what they started doing is they started using the currency itself to make things. 語法

于是，他们开始直接拿货币来制作物品。

Like I I visited this guy on the street

比如，我当时在街头遇到一个人，

who was making like purses and bags 語法

他用现金制作钱包和手提袋，

and like sculptures out of cash

还有各种雕塑，

because it was more worth more as a raw material

因为现金作为原材料反而更值钱，

than it was as as like money, as a currency,

比它作为钱、作为货币时更值钱，

which is insane.

这简直太疯狂了。

That's a very extreme version of inflation.

这是通货膨胀非常极端的一种情况。

It's happened in several countries that have done this.

这种事也曾发生在其他几个国家。

We're not in that situation, even close to that situation. 語法

我们没有处在那种境地，甚至离那种境地还远得很。

But it's an example of just how tenuous modern economies are. 語法

但这个例子说明，现代经济其实非常脆弱。

They're not like pegged to gold or whatever. 用詞

它们并不是与黄金之类的东西挂钩。

They're like pegged to a bunch of humans

它们其实是与一群人的信念挂钩：

believing that this stuff is worth something.

相信这些东西是有价值的。

And it can quickly go off the rails. 習語

而这一切可能很快就会脱轨。

So, I thought I'd share that little fun thing 語氣意圖

所以，我想顺便分享这个有点意思的小故事，

that is more documented in the Vox Borders episode

Vox的《Borders》节目中有更详细的记录，

that you can go watch on the Vox YouTube channel.

你可以去Vox的YouTube频道观看。

So, that's all I've got.

好，我要说的就这些。

Um thank you all for being here

嗯，感谢大家看到这里。

and I think you should check out if you want to color your videos or your photos.

如果你想给视频或照片调色，我觉得可以看看我的工具。

I've LUTs and presets that uh you can use to color correct your stuff.

我有LUT和预设，你可以用它们来校正素材的色彩。

I also have a storytelling course on Bright Trip

我在Bright Trip上还有一门叙事课程，

where I talk about my methodology for visual storytelling

会在里面讲解我的视觉叙事方法，

with Nathaniel Drew.

是和Nathaniel Drew一起制作的。

I think that's sort of it, all the plugs

我想差不多就是这些了，这些推广内容

I should do at the end of these videos.

就是我应该放在视频结尾说的。

But um yeah, lots more to come.

不过，嗯，之后还有很多内容。

We're working on lots of amazing videos and I'm really excited to share them.

我们正在制作很多精彩的视频，我非常期待和大家分享。

So, I'll see you in the next one.

那么，我们下期见。

Bye, everyone.

大家再见。

Okay.

好。