發生第三次世界大戰的機率有多大？：英語精讀講義

At least 108 million people have been killed in wars in the 20th century. 片語搭配

在20世紀，至少有1.08億人在戰爭中喪生。

The First World War started in Europe and lasted more than 4 years from 1914 to 1918

第一次世界大戰爆發於歐洲，從1914年到1918年持續了4年多，

with 7 million civilians and 10 million military personnel losing their lives.

導致700萬平民和1000萬軍人喪生。

The Second World War lasted for 6 years from 1939 to 1945

第二次世界大戰從1939年到1945年持續了6年，

with deaths ranging from 50 million to more than 80 million. 文法

死亡人數在5000萬到8000多萬之間。

Both of these wars were catastrophic,

這兩場戰爭都是災難性的，

but could it happen again?

但它還會再次發生嗎？

That's what we'll find out in this episode of The Infographics Show.

這就是我們在本集《The Infographics Show》中要探討的。

What are the chances of World War III?

第三次世界大戰爆發的機率有多大？

Wars can break out for a number of reasons. 片語動詞

戰爭爆發的原因有很多。

World War I arguably started when Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria

可以說，第一次世界大戰始於奧地利弗朗茨·斐迪南大公

was assassinated on June 28th, 1914.

於1914年6月28日遇刺。

This was the immediate cause, 片語搭配

這是直接原因，

but there were a series of events which triggered the 4-year-long war. 片語搭配

但有一系列事件最終引發了這場長達四年的戰爭。

And though there were a number of incidents that led to World War II, 片語搭配

雖然引發第二次世界大戰的事件也很多，

the European emergence of the conflict came about on September 1st, 1939, 片語動詞

但歐洲戰場的衝突爆發於1939年9月1日，

when Germany invaded Poland,

當時德國入侵了波蘭，

which led Britain and France to declare war on Hitler's Nazi state in retaliation. 講解

作為報復，英國和法國向希特勒的納粹國家宣戰。

A third World War could come about through a US-Russia dispute

第三次世界大戰可能會因為美俄爭端而爆發，

or possibly US-China.

或者也可能是中美之間。

And of course, North Korea,

當然，還有北韓，

which has been the hot topic in the press right now 片語搭配

目前它是新聞媒體上的熱門話題，

after President Trump's historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

在川普總統與北韓領導人金正恩舉行歷史性會晤之後。

Hopefully,

希望

that's made it less likely that a war with North Korea will happen anytime soon. 講解

這讓與北韓在近期內爆發戰爭的可能性降低了。

A recent New York Post article featured the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin,

最近《紐約郵報》的一篇文章引用了俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普丁的話，

who said,

他說，

"The understanding that a third World War could be the end of civilization

“認識到第三次世界大戰可能是文明的終結，

should restrain us from taking extreme steps on the international arena 講解

應該制止我們在國際舞臺上採取

that are highly dangerous for modern civilization."

對現代文明極為危險的極端舉措。”

This was during his annual televised call-in show

這是他在一年一度的電視連線節目中說的，

where he fields questions from the public. 用詞

在節目中他回答公眾的提問。

When you mention the words World War III,

當你提到“第三次世界大戰”這個詞時，

you can't help but think of nuclear weapons, 片語搭配

你不禁會想到核武器，

as it's likely a third World War would be a nuclear one.

因為第三次世界大戰很可能是一場核戰爭。

Before we explore how a nuclear war might play out, 片語動詞

在我們探討核戰爭可能如何演變之前，

let's first take a brief look back at the history of nuclear weapons development. 片語搭配

讓我們先簡要回顧一下核武器的發展歷史。

The world's first nuclear weapons explosion

世界上第一次核武器爆炸

was on July 16th, 1945

發生在1945年7月16日

in New Mexico,

在新墨西哥州，

when the United States tested its first nuclear bomb.

當時美國試爆了第一顆原子彈。

It was only 3 weeks later, 文法

僅僅3週後，

on August 6th, 1945,

即1945年8月6日，

that the United States dropped an atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima.

美國向日本廣島市投下了原子彈。

It killed or wounded nearly 130,000 people,

造成近13萬人死傷，

and 3 days later,

3天後，

the United States bombed Nagasaki,

美國轟炸了長崎，

which killed 74,000 people

造成74000人死亡，

and injured another 75,000.

另有75000人受傷。

These two events marked the end of World War II. 片語搭配

這兩個事件標誌著第二次世界大戰的結束。

Because this was back at the beginning of nuclear weapons development,

因為當時正處於核武器發展的初期，

and with only one side having nuclear capability, 文法

且只有一方擁有核能力，

there was no retaliation.

所以沒有遭到報復。

Following the Second World War,

第二次世界大戰後，

the United States,

美國、

the Soviet Union,

蘇聯

and Great Britain conducted more nuclear weapons tests,

和英國進行了更多的核武器試驗，

and in 1958,

在1958年，

nearly 10,000 scientists presented to United Nations Secretary General Dag Hammarskjöld

近10000名科學家向聯合國秘書長達格·哈馬舍爾德提交了

a petition that begged,

一份請願書，懇求道：

"We deem it imperative that immediate action be taken 文法

“我們認為，當務之急是立即採取行動，

to effect an international agreement 用詞

促成一項國際協議，

to stop testing of all nuclear weapons."

停止所有核武器的試驗。”

Throughout the 1960s and 70s,

在整個20世紀60年代和70年代，

as more development took place, 片語動詞

隨著更多技術的發展，

treaties were signed to promote disarmament,

簽署了旨在促進裁軍的條約，

but more and more countries developed nuclear weapons. 文法

但越來越多的國家開發了核武器。

Today,

如今，

they are believed to be around 16,300 nuclear weapons 文法

據信約有16300件核武器

spread between nine countries.

分佈在九個國家。

They are the United States, Russia, the UK, France, China,

它們是美國、俄羅斯、英國、法國、中國、

North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Israel.

北韓、印度、巴基斯坦和以色列。

Russia and the US share 93% of all nuclear warheads out there,

俄羅斯和美國擁有全球93%的核彈頭，

but they have been asked to reduce the number of weapons under the START Treaty,

但根據START條約，他們被要求削減武器數量。

which stands for Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. 片語搭配

START代表《削減戰略武器條約》。

All these weapons make the prospect of a third World War

所有這些武器使得第三次世界大戰的前景

very different to the first and second World Wars. 用詞

與第一次和第二次世界大戰截然不同。

So assuming World War III did kick off, 講解

所以，假設第三次世界大戰真的爆發了，

and it was nuclear,

並且是一場核戰爭，

what would it look like?

它會是什麼樣子？

HuffPost has launched HuffPost Apocalypse,

《赫芬頓郵報》推出了“赫芬頓郵報世界末日”項目，

a project that aims to investigate what an apocalypse would mean for humanity, 文法

這是一個旨在調查世界末日對人類意味著什麼的項目，

and to support this,

為了支持這一項目，

have been doing their own research and analysis

他們一直在進行自己的研究和分析，

into what the effects of a nuclear war might be.

以了解核戰爭可能會產生什麼影響。

In a recent article,

在最近的一篇文章中，

they propose two scenarios.

他們提出了兩種設想。

The first,

第一種，

a global nuclear war centered on a US and Russia conflict. 片語搭配

一場以美俄衝突為中心的全球核戰爭。

In this scenario,

在這種設想下，

at between 1,800 and 3,000 large warheads

將有1800到3000枚大型核彈頭

would be fired at nuclear weapon launch sites,

會被發射到核武器發射場、

ports, major industry command centers,

港口、主要工業指揮中心、

power stations, and densely populated areas.

發電站和人口稠密地區。

The other potential area of tension that could spark a conflict is between India and Pakistan. 慣用語

另一個可能引發衝突的潛在緊張地區是印度和巴基斯坦之間。

This scenario would be on a much smaller scale 片語搭配

這種設想的規模要小得多，

with around 100 smaller nuclear weapons being used

大約會使用100件較小的核武器，

out of stockpiles of around 200,

它們來自大約200件的庫存，

with strikes on densely populated supercities

襲擊目標是人口稠密的超級城市，

such as Delhi and Karachi.

例如德里和卡拉奇。

But it's possible that it could lead to a larger conflict

但這也有可能引發一場更大的衝突，

with other countries becoming involved. 文法

並把其他國家捲入其中。

What would the fallout be? 用詞

其後果會是什麼？

When these bombs are dropped,

當這些炸彈被投下時，

there would be intense nuclear radiation

將會產生強烈的核輻射，

and a blinding flash brighter than the sun,

和比太陽還要明亮的刺眼閃光，

a fierce fireball,

熾熱的火球，

and a massive blast wave that would kill thousands.

以及能奪走數千人生命的巨大衝擊波。

With so many casualties, 文法

由於傷亡慘重，

aid organizations would be overwhelmed and unable to help all of the injured,

救援組織將不堪重負，無法幫助所有傷者，

meaning many would be left to fend for themselves 講解

這意味著許多人不得不自生自滅，

with severe injuries including burns, broken bones, and deep cuts from flying debris.

帶著燒傷、骨折和被飛濺碎片造成的深重割傷等嚴重傷害。

And the long-term results would be even more catastrophic.

而長期的後果將更加具有災難性。

With so many fires burning,

到處都是大火，

the skies would be filled with smoke clouds

天空將佈滿煙雲，

similar to a large volcanic eruption.

就像發生大型火山爆發一樣。

These would block out the sun, 片語動詞

這些煙雲會遮擋住太陽，

which would cause the atmosphere and Earth to cool,

導致大氣層和地球降溫，

resulting in what's known as a nuclear winter. 講解

從而產生所謂的“核冬天”。

The latest climate model suggests

最新的氣候模型表明，

that the use of a few tens to a hundred of the smaller nuclear weapons 文法

在印度-巴基斯坦的設想中，使用幾十到一百枚較小的核武器

in the India-Pakistan scenario

——在印度-巴基斯坦的情景下——

would cause severe frosts, drought, and famine,

將導致嚴重的霜凍、乾旱和飢荒，

which would last up to 10 years and stretch across the entire Northern Hemisphere. 片語搭配

這些災害將持續長達10年，並蔓延至整個北半球。

In the bigger America-Russia scenario,

在規模更大的美俄設想中，

there would be a long-lasting cold period with a global reach.

將出現一個波及全球的持久寒冷期。

It would go on for a decade or more and could be likened to a mini Ice Age. 講解

它將持續十年或更長時間，堪比一次小冰河期。

Talk of a third World War has been going on for years. 文法

關於第三次世界大戰的談論已經持續多年了。

Much of the fear driven by the Cold War tensions between Russia and America,

很多恐懼是由俄羅斯和美國之間冷戰的緊張局勢引起的，

which lasted from 1947 to 1991.

冷戰從1947年持續到了1991年。

These days, there are still concerns that these two nations could come to blows, 慣用語

如今，仍然有人擔心這兩個國家可能會發生衝突，

but the rise in power of China and also the nuclear development program in North Korea 片語搭配

但中國的崛起，以及北韓的核發展計劃

has meant new danger areas are present.

意味著出現了新的危險領域。