你能看穿這個曾愚弄一代醫生的謬誤嗎？ - 伊麗莎白·考克斯：英語精讀講義

Humanity.

人類。

It's a trainwreck, 慣用語

簡直是一場災難，

but I can't look away. 慣用語

但我又無法移開視線。

It's 1843 and a debate is raging among physicians 片語搭配

現在是1843年，醫生們正在激烈爭論

about one of the most common killers of women,

關於導致女性死亡的最常見疾病之一：

childbed fever. 文化背景

產褥熱。

Childbed fever strikes within days of giving birth, 用詞

產褥熱在分娩後的幾天內發作，

killing more than 70% of those infected, 文法

導致超過70%的感染者死亡，

and nobody knows what causes it.

卻沒有人知道原因。

Obstetrician Charles Meigs has a theory.

產科醫生查爾斯·梅格斯有一個理論。

Having observed abdominal inflammation in patients who go on to develop the fever, 講解

他觀察到後來發燒的病人都曾出現腹部發炎，

he claims this inflammation is the cause of childbed fever.

於是他聲稱這種發炎就是導致產褥熱的原因。

Much of the medical establishment supports his theory. 用詞

大多數醫學界人士支持他的理論。

Oh, come on. 語氣意圖

拜託。

They really leave me no choice but to teach them some skepticism. 片語搭配

他們這真的是逼著我教他們一點懷疑精神啊。

That's better.

這樣好多了。

Now, Meigs,

好了，梅格斯，

your argument is based on a fallacy, 片語搭配

你的論點是建立在一個謬誤之上的，

the false cause fallacy. 文化背景

即錯誤歸因謬誤。

Correlation does not imply causation. 表達脈絡

相關性不代表因果關係。

When two phenomena regularly occur together, 文法

當兩個現象經常一起發生時，

one does not necessarily cause the other.

一個並不一定導致另一個。

So you say women who have inflammation

所以你說有發炎的女性

also come down with childbed fever. 片語動詞

也會得產褥熱。

Therefore, the inflammation caused the fever. 表達脈絡

因此，發炎導致了發燒。

But that's not necessarily true. 片語搭配

但這未必是真的。

Yes, yes, the inflammation comes first,

是的，是的，發炎先發生，

then the fever,

接著是發燒，

so it seems like the inflammation causes the fever. 片語搭配

所以看起來好像是發炎引起了發燒。

But by that logic, 表達脈絡

但是按照這個邏輯，

since babies usually grow hair before teeth, 表達脈絡

既然嬰兒通常先長頭髮後長牙齒，

hair growth must cause tooth growth.

那麼長頭髮就一定導致了長牙齒。

And we all know that's not true, right? 語氣意圖

我們都知道這不是真的，對吧？

Actually, don't answer that.

算了，別回答了。

A couple of different things could be going on here. 片語搭配

這裡可能有幾種不同的情況。

First, it's possible that fever and inflammation

首先，發燒和發炎

are correlated purely by coincidence. 片語搭配

可能純粹是巧合相關。

Or there could be a causal relationship

或者可能存在一種與你所想相反的

that's the opposite of what you think. The fever causes the inflammation

因果關係。是發燒引起了發炎，

rather than the inflammation causing the fever. 文法

而不是發炎引起了發燒。

Or both could share a common underlying cause 片語搭配

或者兩者都有一個共同的根本原因，

you haven't thought of.

而你沒有想到。

If I may, 語氣意圖

如果可以的話，

just what do you think causes inflammation? 語氣意圖

你覺得究竟是什麼引起了發炎呢？

Hmm, nothing?

呃，沒有原因？

It just is. 語氣意圖

就只是這樣。

Really?

真的嗎？

Humor me for a moment in discussing one of your colleague's ideas. 慣用語

配合我一下，我們來討論一下你同事的想法。

Dr. Oliver Wendell Holmes.

奧利佛·溫德爾·霍姆斯醫生。

I know, I know you don't like his theory.

我知道，我知道你不喜歡他的理論。

You already wrote a scathing letter about it. 用詞

你已經寫過一封嚴厲的信批評它了。

But let's fill your students in, shall we? 講解

但讓我們給你的學生們普及一下，好嗎？

Holmes noticed a pattern.

霍姆斯注意到了一個規律。

When a patient dies of childbed fever,

當有病人死於產褥熱時，

a doctor performs an autopsy. 片語搭配

醫生會進行驗屍。

If the doctor then treats a new patient,

如果該醫生隨後治療新病人，

that patient often comes down with the fever.

那個病人通常也會得產褥熱。

Based on this correlation between autopsies of fever victims 表達脈絡

基於發熱受害者驗屍

and new fever patients,

和新發熱病人之間的這種相關性，

he proposes a possible cause.

他提出了一個可能的原因。

Since there's no evidence that the autopsy causes the fever

因為沒有證據表明驗屍引起了發燒，

beyond this correlation,

除了這種相關性之外，

he doesn't jump to the conclusion that autopsy causes fever. 慣用語

他沒有草率斷定驗屍引起了發燒。

Instead, he suggests that doctors are infecting their patients 表達脈絡

相反，他提出醫生正在感染他們的病人，

via an invisible contaminant on their hands 用詞

透過他們手上和手術器械上

and surgical instruments.

看不見的汙染物。

This idea outrages most doctors

這個想法激怒了大多數醫生，

who see themselves as infallible. 用詞

他們認為自己是不可能犯錯的。

Like Meigs here,

就像這裡的梅格斯一樣，

who refuses to consider the possibility 片語搭配

他拒絕考慮這種可能性：

that he's playing a role in his patients' plight. 片語搭配

他在病人的苦難中也扮演了某種角色。

His flawed argument doesn't leave any path forward for further investigation, 慣用語

他的錯誤論點沒有為進一步調查留下任何餘地，

but Holmes's does.

但霍姆斯的論點卻做到了。

It's 1847 and physician Ignaz Semmelweis

現在是1847年，醫生伊格納茲·塞麥爾維斯

has reduced the number of childbed fever deaths 文法

已經將一家診所內產褥熱的死亡人數

in a clinic from 12% to 1%

從12%降到了1%，

by requiring all medical personnel to disinfect their hands 用詞

方法是要求所有醫務人員

after autopsies and between patient examinations.

在驗屍後和檢查病人的空檔對雙手進行消毒。

With this initiative,

透過這一舉措，

he has proven the contagious nature of childbed fever. 用詞

他證明了產褥熱具有傳染性。

It's 1879 and Louis Pasteur

現在是1879年，路易·巴斯德

has identified the contaminant

已經確定了引起許多產褥熱病例的

responsible for many cases of childbed fever, 片語搭配

汙染物，

hemolytic streptococcus bacteria. 文化背景

溶血性鏈球菌。

Hmm, my fries are cold.

呃，我的薯條涼了。

Must be because my ice cream melted. 文法

肯定是因為我的冰淇淋化了。

So, do you think you can do my job?

那麼，你覺得你能幹我的工作嗎？

Let's find out, shall we?

讓我們來看看吧，好嗎？

Click here to see if you can outsmart this fallacy. 用詞

點擊這裡，看看你是否能識破這個謬誤。