公共債務：多少才算過多？：英語精讀講義

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments around the world

COVID-19疫情迫使世界各國政府

to borrow and spend at an almost unprecedented rate. 片語搭配

以幾乎史無前例的速度借貸和支出。

Between April and June,

在4月至6月期間，

America alone has borrowed $3 trillion,

僅美國就借貸了3兆美元，

the largest amount borrowed in a single quarter

這是單季借貸的最高金額

since records began. 片語搭配

創下有紀錄以來的新高。

The rise in public debt

公共債務的上升

has been unlike anything we've seen in recent history. 文法

與我們近代史上所見過的任何情況都不同。

In the past,

在過去，

economists have warned against high levels of borrowing.

經濟學家曾警告過高水準的借貸風險。

But new thinking suggests much higher levels of debt might now be sustainable.

但新觀點認為，如今更高水準的債務或許是可持續的。

The fact that there's been such a dramatic change in the consensus

共識發生了如此巨大的改變，

makes some people nervous.

這讓一些人感到不安。

How much of a cause for concern 片語搭配

世界範圍內不斷上升的公共債務

should the world's rising public debt be?

到底有多值得擔憂？

Governments have borrowed to finance their spending 用詞

幾百年來，

for hundreds of years.

政府一直在透過借貸來為支出融資。

At the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815,

1815年拿破崙戰爭結束時，

Britain's debt was 164% of GDP.

英國的債務占GDP的164%。

And after the Second World War,

而在第二次世界大戰之後，

it was even higher at 259% of GDP.

這比例甚至更高，達到了GDP的259%。

Historically,

從歷史上看，

governments have borrowed for a few main reasons.

政府借貸主要是為了幾個關鍵原因。

Probably the biggest one was to fight wars.

最大的原因可能就是為了打仗。

But in the past 100 years or so,

但在過去大約100年裡，

governments have increasingly used their debt

政府越來越多地利用債務

as a way to try to keep the economy on track. 慣用語

作為試圖維持經濟正常運轉的一種方式。

To raise money,

為了籌集資金，

governments issue bonds to investors. 用詞

政府向投資者發行債券。

These are in effect IOU's that are repaid over a fixed term with interest 文化背景

這些債券實際上就是借據，在固定期限內連本帶利償還，

at a rate that depends on the length of the bond.

利率取決於債券的期限。

How desirable these bonds are to investors

這些債券對投資者的吸引力有多大

depends on the country's creditworthiness. 用詞

取決於該國的信譽度。

They tend to be very safe assets.

它們通常是非常安全的資產。

With governments

如果債務人是政府，

you can usually count on getting your money back. 片語動詞

你通常可以指望能拿回你的錢。

Once a bond has been uh sold by the government out into the market,

一旦債券被政府嗯發行到市場上，

it can be swapped and traded uh as many times as people care to. 文法

它就可以被人們隨心所欲地交換和交易。

And that gives you a sense of how markets view the creditworthiness 片語搭配

這也讓你能夠感覺到市場如何看待

uh of the government.

嗯政府的信譽。

Government bonds are bought by many different investors,

許多不同的投資者都會購買政府債券，

including pension funds,

包括退休基金、

hedge funds,

避險基金、

banks,

銀行

and individual investors.

以及個人投資者。

As well as a country's own central bank and local government.

還有該國自己的中央銀行和地方政府。

Foreign governments also buy bonds.

外國政府也會購買債券。

The biggest foreign holders of America's public debt

美國公共債務最大的外國持有者

are China and Japan.

是中國和日本。

If you have a safe asset that everyone will accept like US government bonds,

如果你擁有一種大家都接受的安全資產，比如美國國債，

you can sell those bonds in a crisis,

你可以在危機時出售這些債券，

get dollars,

換取美元，

uh and then use that to make sure you don't get into trouble.

嗯然後用它來確保你不會陷入困境。

So,

所以，

there's quite a lot of potential buyers out there for government bonds,

政府債券有很多潛在的買家，

and really they could end up all over the world.

實際上它們最終可能會遍佈世界各地。

Governments' willingness to issue bonds and increase public debt

政府發行債券和增加公共債務的意願

has changed over time.

隨著時間的推移發生了變化。

After the sky-high debts of the Second World War,

在經歷了二戰後極高的債務之後，

many governments were wary of going further into the red. 慣用語

許多政府對進一步陷入赤字持謹慎態度。

But they continued to borrow,

但他們繼續借款，

and in the 1970s,

而在1970年代，

this was blamed for high inflation.

這被認為是導致高通膨的原因。

A lot of economists spoke to governments and said,

許多經濟學家對政府說：

"The reason you're facing these high rates of inflation is because you're borrowing so much.

「你們面臨這麼高的通膨率是因為你們借了太多的錢。

Uh it's adding too much money into the economy for the economy to easily absorb,

嗯它向經濟中注入了太多的資金，超出了經濟的輕易吸收能力，

and it's pushing up prices." 片語動詞

這就推高了物價。」

That really ushered in a sea change 講解

這確實開啟了一場巨大的轉變，

in the way that governments think about debt.

改變了政府看待債務的方式。

And so,

因此，

the use of borrowing as a macroeconomic tool

將借貸作為總體經濟工具的做法

slowly petered out until we got to the Global Financial Crisis. 片語動詞

逐漸減少，直到我們遭遇了全球金融危機。

Now,

現在，

it's official.

官方宣布了。

We are in a recession.

我們正處於經濟衰退之中。

Major financial institutions have teetered on the edge of collapse, 慣用語

主要金融機構徘徊在崩潰的邊緣，

and some have failed.

有些甚至已經倒閉。

In the rich world,

在富裕國家，

the financial crisis pushed public debt

金融危機將公共債務

from 74% to around 105%

從74%推高至105%左右，

in the decade following the financial crisis.

在金融危機後的十年間。

And in emerging economies,

在新興經濟體中，

it rose from roughly 35% to 48% of GDP.

它從大約GDP的35%上升到48%。

This ballooning debt caused political panic,

這種激增的債務引發了政治恐慌，

with some governments pursuing strict austerity 用詞

一些政府實行了嚴格的緊縮政策，

to try to bring their budget deficits 片語動詞

試圖在隨後的十年間

down during the decade that followed.

降低預算赤字。

But it didn't go entirely to plan. 慣用語

但這並沒有完全按計畫進行。

By about 2014,

到2014年左右，

the lessons of that experiment began to be pretty clear.

那次實驗的教訓開始變得非常清晰。

Uh and what we learned

嗯我們學到的是，

was austerity uh in a time of economic weakness

在經濟疲軟時期實行緊縮，

hurts economies so much 文法

對經濟的傷害太大了，

that it basically doesn't do any good.

以至於它基本上沒有任何好處。

The economy becomes so weak

經濟變得如此疲軟，

that you're not earning enough in tax revenues

導致你獲得的稅收收入不足以

to make it worth it.

彌補緊縮帶來的損失。

These problems with austerity led to new thinking.

緊縮政策帶來的這些問題催生了新的思考。

In 2019,

在2019年，

former IMF chief economist Olivier

前國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家奧利維爾·

Blanchard gave a game-changing speech. 用詞

布蘭查德發表了一場改變遊戲規則的演講。

He argued governments could borrow far more than previously believed. 文法

他認為政府可以借入比以前認為的多得多的資金。

I think the fact that there's been such a dramatic change in the consensus

我認為共識發生了如此巨大的改變，

makes some people nervous.

這確實讓一些人感到不安。

But at the same time,

但同時，

it wasn't a rash decision they made.

這並不是他們做出的草率決定。

It was heavily influenced

它深受

by what was going on in the world around them 片語動詞

他們周圍世界正在發生的事情的影響

Blanchard observed interest rates on government bonds have been falling,

布蘭查德觀察到政府債券利率一直在下降，

making it cheap for some governments to borrow money. 文法

使得一些政府借錢的成本很低。

At the same time,

與此同時，

the economy was growing.

經濟正在成長。

Take America.

以美國為例。

The rate of nominal GDP growth, 用詞

名目GDP的成長率，

which is GDP before it's been adjusted for inflation,

即未經過通膨調整的GDP成長率，

has generally been higher than interest rates

在過去30年中

for the past 30 years.

通常高於利率。

This matters

這很重要，

because as long as GDP is growing faster 文法

因為只要GDP的成長速度快於

than the country's debt is accumulating interest,

國家債務累積利息的速度，

and governments keep additional borrowing in check, 慣用語

並且政府將額外借款控制在一定範圍內，

then a nation can effectively grow its way out of debt 慣用語

那麼一個國家就可以透過成長來擺脫債務

at no fiscal cost.

而不需要付出財政代價。

Mathematically,

在數學上，

it's a very straightforward point.

這是一個非常簡單直接的觀點。

Um but when you're explaining this to governments and saying

嗯但是當你要向政府解釋這一點，並且說

this is how it goes,

這就是實際情況時，

that ends up being quite a powerful thing.

它就變成了一件非常有影響力的事。

Not even a year after Blanchard gave his speech,

在布蘭查德發表演講還不到一年後，

coronavirus emerged in Wuhan,

冠狀病毒在武漢出現，

and the greatest exercise in public borrowing

幾代人以來最大規模的公共借貸行動

for generations began.

開始了。

Government borrowing hit a record £55 billion.

政府借貸達到了創紀錄的550億英鎊。

Ballooning public debt,

激增的公共債務，

around $300 billion

約為3000億美元

or 16% of GDP.

或佔GDP的16%。

But not every country can borrow its way through the pandemic. 文法

但並非每個國家都能透過借貸度過這場疫情。

Almost every government has found it easier to borrow now 文法

幾乎每個政府都發現現在的借款

than it was 30 or 40 years ago.

比30或40年前更容易了。

But the difference between a rich country

但富裕國家與

and a poorer country,

較貧窮國家之間的區別在於，

which doesn't have a long record of borrowing

後者沒有在外國市場上

uh on foreign markets,

長期借款的紀錄，

those places can't get the same interest rates.

那些地方無法獲得相同的利率。

It's a source of significant inequality

在各國如何面對這場疫情方面，

in terms of how countries face this pandemic,

這是一個嚴重不平等的源頭，

that some places can borrow almost as much as they want

即一些地方幾乎可以想借多少就借多少

to support their economies and others can't.

來支持他們的經濟，而另一些地方則不能。

Borrowing on this scale

這種規模的借貸

is not without risk for anyone. 文法

對任何人來說都不是沒有風險的。

You owe us a lot of money.

你們欠了我們很多錢。

What?

什麼？

As there's always the threat

因為總是存在著

that interest rates could rise again.

利率可能再次上升的威脅。

Economists aren't entirely sure

經濟學家們並不完全確定

why these rates have been low for so long.

為什麼這些利率長期以來一直處於低檔。

In general,

總的來說，

interest rates on mortgages,

抵押貸款、

government bonds,

政府債券，

or savings accounts

或儲蓄帳戶的利率

are driven by demand. 片語搭配

是由需求驅動的。

If the desire to save is high,

如果儲蓄慾望很高，

then interest rates will be low

那麼利率就會很低，

as banks or governments issuing bonds

因為發行債券的銀行或政府

don't have to tempt investors with favorable rates.

不必用有吸引力的利率來招攬投資者。

There are several factors driving the desire to save,

有幾個因素推動了儲蓄慾望，

which might be keeping interest rates down.

這可能是壓低利率的原因。

The aging population might be one cause,

人口老化可能是一個原因，

as people tend to save for retirement,

因為人們傾向於為退休存錢，

and pension funds buy government bonds.

而退休基金會購買政府債券。

And fear of global financial instability

此外，對全球金融不穩定的擔憂

may also play a part,

可能也起到了一定作用，

causing investors to seek safe assets like bonds.

導致投資者尋求像債券這樣的安全資產。

We can't be completely sure

我們不能完全確定

um why exactly it's happened.

嗯究竟為什麼會發生這種情況。

And that matters

這很重要，

because if you can't be certain

因為如果你不能確定

why it happened in the first place, 慣用語

它最初為什麼會發生，

um you can't say for sure

嗯你就不能斷言

that it's not going to reverse itself

它不會在未來的某個時候

at some point in the future.

發生逆轉。

Uh which would be a big deal,

嗯那將會是一件大事，

you know,

你要知道，

if interest rates suddenly soared,

如果利率突然飆升，

then all the countries that had accumulated a lot of debt

那麼所有累積了大量債務的國家

would suddenly be in very big trouble.

就會立刻陷入巨大的麻煩。

Despite these risks,

儘管存在這些風險，

the pandemic has left many countries

疫情讓許多國家

with no option but to keep borrowing. 文法

別無選擇，只能繼續借貸。

To cut deficit spending now

在全球經濟仍受疫情重創的情況下，

while the global economy is still crippled by the pandemic,

現在削減赤字開支，

would inflict lasting damage. 片語搭配

將造成持久的損害。

But how much and how long countries can continue to borrow 文法

但各國還能繼續借貸多少、借多久

is unclear.

尚不清楚。

And the colossal debt

而在過去六個月中累積起來的

built up in the past six months 片語動詞

巨額債務

will be one of the greatest legacies of the pandemic. 用詞

將是這場大流行留下的最大遺產之一。

I'm Ryan Avent,

我是萊恩·艾文特，

the Economics columnist

《經濟學人》的

at The Economist.

經濟專欄作家。

Uh we've written a series of articles

嗯我們寫了一系列文章，

that cover the basics on a range of economic topics

涵蓋了一系列經濟主題的基礎知識，

and how the latest thinking

以及關於它們的最新理念

about them is evolving.

是如何演變的。

You can read more at the link opposite.

您可以在對面的連結中閱讀更多內容。

Thank you for watching.

感謝您的觀看。