美中對決：為何貿易戰不會很快結束：英語精讀講義

The world's leading superpowers are locking horns. 慣用語

全球領先的超級大國正在激烈交鋒。

Game on here. 慣用語

好戲開場了。

Trade war between the United States and China is here.

中美之間的貿易戰已經打響。

Over the past 16 months,

在過去的16個月裡，

America and China have been trading blows through tariffs on goods. 慣用語

中美兩國一直透過對商品加徵關稅進行相互打擊。

We are looking at a reality that has, you know,

我們要面對的現實是，你知道，

a 25% tariff on every single product that would come in from China.

每一件來自中國的產品都將被加徵25%的關稅。

The impact is being felt on industries worldwide. 文法

全球各地的各個產業都感受到了這種影響。

But what is the story behind the America-China trade war? 片語搭配

但是中美貿易戰背後的故事是怎樣的呢？

So, the trade war,

那麼，關於貿易戰，

what have you guys been looking at?

你們都在關注什麼呢？

The US doesn't like that China is growing so fast

美國不喜歡中國發展得如此之快，

and set to overtake uh America as like the biggest economy in the world if it hasn't already by certain 片語搭配

並即將超越呃美國成為全球最大的經濟體，如果按某些

measures,

指標來看還沒做到的話，

right?

對吧？

Basically,

基本上，

China and US are kind of caught in this race of imposing tariffs on each other. 慣用語

中美兩國有點陷入了這種相互加徵關稅的競賽中。

So,

所以，

US slaps a high tariff on certain products and then China retaliates. 用詞

美國對某些產品徵收高額關稅，然後中國進行報復。

It's multiple industries across multiple markets.

這涉及多個市場的多個產業。

It's huge.

影響是巨大的。

And I think right now it'd be a really good time to look at what's happening

我認為現在真的是一個審視正在發生的事情的好時機，

and how it could impact the world from now on. 片語搭配

以及它從現在起將如何影響世界。

At The Economist,

在《經濟學人》，

we've been covering the trade war extensively.

我們一直在廣泛報導這場貿易戰。

Soumaya Keynes is our trade and globalization editor,

蘇瑪雅·凱恩斯 (Soumaya Keynes) 是我們的貿易和全球化編輯，

based in Washington DC.

駐華盛頓特區。

How did this whole trade war kick off? 片語動詞

整個貿易戰是如何爆發的？

How did this whole trade war start?

整個貿易戰是如何開始的？

For a long time,

很長一段時間以來，

there have been frustrations that past American administrations had with the Chinese.

美國歷屆政府對中國都抱有挫敗感。

On the 2016 presidential campaign trail, 文化背景

在2016年總統競選期間，

you started to see some really tough rhetoric. 片語搭配

你開始聽到一些非常強硬的言辭。

We can't continue to allow China to rape our country, 用詞

我們不能繼續任由中國強暴我們的國家，

and that's what they're doing.

而這正是他們正在做的事。

And so he gets into office, 用詞

於是他在上任後，

his United States trade representative, 文化背景

他的美國貿易代表，

that's the kind of official trade negotiator,

也就是那種官方的貿易談判代表，

they're working on this big report.

他們正在編寫這份重要報告。

So,

所以，

they're essentially investigating China's economic practices.

他們實際上是在調查中國的經濟實踐。

Essentially,

從本質上講，

the question they're asking is,

他們提出的問題是，

has China done anything that would frustrate America's economic interests? 用詞

中國是否做了任何會損害美國經濟利益的事情？

And they find,

然後他們發現，

surprise surprise, 語氣意圖

毫不意外，

yes.

是的。

How long a history is there of uh these complaints the US has about China?

呃美國對中國的這些抱怨有多長的歷史了？

These concerns go back for a really long time,

這些擔憂由來已久，

and I think to understand them properly,

我認為為了正確理解它們，

you really need to go way back to the expectations that people had when China was thinking about entering the World Trade Organization. 講解

你真的需要追溯到人們在中國考慮加入世界貿易組織時所抱有的期望。

China's economic rise has been dramatic.

中國的經濟崛起是驚人的。

In 1978,

在1978年，

China's GDP at market prices was just 6% of America's.

按市場價格計算，中國的國內生產毛額 (GDP) 僅為美國的6%。

Last year,

去年，

it had grown to 66%.

它已經成長到了66%。

When considering local spending power,

如果考慮到當地的消費能力，

China has already overtaken America.

中國已經超越了美國。

This unprecedented growth began with Deng Xiaoping.

這種史無前例的成長始於鄧小平。

He started opening up China's economy to the world in 1978, 片語動詞

他在1978年開始向世界開放中國經濟，

and the country quickly became the world's factory. 慣用語

這個國家迅速成為了世界工廠。

Over the next decade,

在接下來的十年裡，

exports as a share of GDP tripled, 用詞

出口占GDP的比例增加了兩倍，

and by 1988,

到1988年，

15% of China's exports went to America.

中國15%的出口流向了美國。

The World Trade Organization opened its doors to China in 2001, 慣用語

世界貿易組織在2001年向中國敞開了大門，

and it was America that ushered it in. 講解

而正是美國將其引進了門。

Bringing China into the WTO is a win-win decision. 用詞

將中國引入WTO是一個雙贏的決定。

It will protect our prosperity,

它將保護我們的繁榮，

and it will promote the right kind of change in China.

並促進中國發生正確的變革。

After joining the WTO,

加入WTO後，

China became an economic superpower.

中國成為了經濟超級大國。

But people had expected the country to also become more like a Western capitalist economy. 文法

但人們本期望這個國家也會變得更像西方的資本主義經濟體。

That didn't happen.

但這並沒有發生。

America now claims that China achieved its growth by not playing fair. 慣用語

美國現在聲稱，中國是透過不公平競爭來實現其成長的。

Are those claims justified?

這些主張有道理嗎？

To find out the

為了尋找

answer, I spoke with David Rennie.

答案，我採訪了戴維·倫尼 (David Rennie)。

He's our Beijing bureau chief. 用詞

他是我們的北京分社社長。

There's two ways in which China certainly hasn't been playing fair.

中國肯定有兩個方面沒有公平競爭。

One way is just that China treats Chinese companies differently.

其中一個方面就是中國對本國公司的待遇不同。

So,

所以，

if you are a Western business,

如果你是一家西方企業，

your Chinese competitor not only has better market access, 文法

你的中國競爭對手不僅擁有更好的市場進入條件，

but maybe the land that it built its factory on was given for free,

而且可能它建廠用的土地是免費獲得的，

maybe got a giant tax break. 用詞

也許還獲得了巨大的稅收優惠。

China just doesn't have a level playing field. 慣用語

中國就是沒有一個公平競爭的環境。

There's then the really dirty stuff,

然後是真正骯髒的手段，

stealing foreign companies technology.

竊取外國公司的技術。

If you ask Chinese officials about the accusation that China is stealing its way to the top, 文法

如果你向中國官員詢問關於中國靠竊取爬上頂峰的指控，

they will say,

他們會說，

"Well, hang on, 語氣意圖

「好吧，等一下，

America steals secrets too.

美國也竊取機密。

So,

那麼，

why are you coming after us?" 片語動詞

你們為什麼還要針對我們？」

The American government will tell you,

美國政府會告訴你，

"Sure,

「沒錯，

they spy and they steal stuff,

他們從事間諜活動，他們竊取東西，

but never for commercial purposes." 片語搭配

但這絕對不是為了商業目的。」

With Donald Trump's election in 2016,

隨著唐納德·川普在2016年當選，

you had a president who actually set about getting tough with China once he was in office, 講解

你看到了一位真正在上任後著手對中國採取強硬態度的總統，

and we'd never really had that before.

而這是我們以前從未真正有過的。

The Trump administration has been using tariffs,

川普政府一直在利用關稅，

or taxes on imported goods,

即對進口商品徵稅，

to try to force the Chinese to change their ways. 慣用語

來試圖迫使中國人改變他們的做法。

In July 2018,

2018年7月，

America imposed tariffs of 25% on $34 billion worth of Chinese products. 片語搭配

美國對價值340億美元的中國產品加徵了25%的關稅。

That almost doubled the average tariff rate on Chinese imports,

這幾乎讓對中國進口商品的平均關稅率翻了一倍，

from 3.8% to 6.7%.

從3.8%提高到了6.7%。

And it's American firms that have to pay that tax. 文法

而必須支付這筆稅款的是美國公司。

But with every increase from America, 文法

但隨著美國的每一次加徵，

came an increase from China.

中國也隨之加徵。

Since the start of the trade war,

自貿易戰爆發以來，

China has more than doubled its average tariff rate.

中國已將其平均關稅率提高了一倍多。

America's has tripled.

美國的關稅率則增加了兩倍。

The fight has become overtly political

這場鬥爭已經變得具有明顯的政治色彩，

because China's tariffs are hitting President Trump's voter base. 用詞

因為中國的關稅正在打擊川普總統的選民基礎。

Many counties where Trump won in the 2016 election

在2016年大選中川普獲勝的許多郡

were here in the Great Plains. 文化背景

都在大平原地區。

And these are the counties most affected by China's tariffs.

而這些正是受中國關稅影響最嚴重的郡。

Someone who knows all about the impact tariffs are having beyond the data

一位對關稅在數據之外所產生的影響了若指掌的人，

is Chad Bown from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

是來自彼得森國際經濟研究所的查德·鮑恩 (Chad Bown)。

He's been analyzing international trade for decades,

幾十年來，他一直在分析國際貿易，

but the trade war has put his research in the spotlight. 慣用語

但這場貿易戰讓他的研究成為了鎂光燈下的焦點。

Some people have referred to it as my World Cup or my Super Bowl. 文化背景

有些人稱它為我的世界盃或我的超級盃。

It's something that I've been studying in the background for 20 years,

這是我在幕後研究了20年的課題，

and now all of a sudden the world seems to be interested in this. 片語搭配

現在全世界突然似乎都對此感興趣了。

What role do tariffs play in a trade war? 片語搭配

關稅在貿易戰中扮演什麼角色？

Tariffs are basically a tax, 文化背景

關稅基本上就是一種稅，

but it's a tax that's only paid for goods that are produced outside of the country in a specific place.

但它是一種僅對在特定地點、在國外生產的商品徵收的稅。

One of the things that China has done in its tariffs

中國在其關稅政策中所做的一件事就是，

is it's imposed really high tariffs on American exports of soybeans.

對美國大豆出口徵收極高的關稅。

This is a huge product that farmers in Iowa and across the Midwest grow only to sell to China. 文法

這是一個巨大的產品，愛荷華州和整個中西部的農民種植它只為了賣給中國。

So,

那麼，

how are these tariffs and the trade war impacting the wider world economy?

這些關稅和貿易戰如何影響更廣泛的世界經濟呢？

I think at some level, 片語搭配

我認為在某種程度上，

we're seeing uh the decisions that businesses make be affected by this.

我們看到呃企業的決策因此受到了影響。

Nowadays,

如今，

they're not sure what markets are going to be open to them in the future, 用詞

他們不確定未來會有哪些市場向他們開放，

and that's going to impact their investment decisions.

而這將影響他們的投資決策。

The International Monetary Fund, 文化背景

國際貨幣基金組織，

the IMF,

即IMF，

they expect economic growth to be a lot lower um in the future because of the tensions arising during the trade war.

他們預計未來的經濟成長會低得多，呃，因為貿易戰期間產生的緊張局勢。

The global economy is slowing down,

全球經濟正在放緩，

uh and everybody's increasingly concerned about that.

呃而且每個人都越來越擔心這一點。

As things stand now, 片語搭配

就目前情況來看，

a cease-fire in the trade war could be drawing near. 講解

貿易戰的停火可能正在臨近。

The two leaders are hoping to agree on a phase one deal soon, 用詞

兩國領導人希望盡快達成第一階段協議，

which could mean some tariffs being lifted. 用詞

這可能意味著部分關稅將被取消。

The Trump administration wants China to buy more American produce and tighten up their intellectual property rules. 片語動詞

川普政府希望中國購買更多美國農產品，並收緊他們的智慧財產權規則。

If that phase one deal is signed,

如果簽署了第一階段協議，

will it be the beginning of the end of the trade war? 慣用語

這將是貿易戰結束的開始嗎？

I took that question back to Soumaya. 片語搭配

我把這個問題帶回給了蘇瑪雅。

The Americans are hugely ambitious for the kinds of changes that they would want from the Chinese,

美國人對於他們希望中國人做出哪種改變有著極大的野心，

but those ambitions,

但這些野心，

I don't think will be reflected in the preliminary phase one deal. 片語搭配

我不認為會反映在初步的第一階段協議中。

The Chinese government wants its economy to do well and wants its citizens to get richer.

中國政府希望其經濟運行良好，並希望其公民變得更富裕。

To the extent that the Americans persist in demanding these big changes to the Chinese economy, 講解

如果美國人堅持要求對中國經濟進行這些重大改變，

it's going to be really difficult to get a deal.

達成協議將會非常困難。

Even if there is a phase one deal, 文法

即使達成第一階段協議，

there will be a lot of issues still to be resolved. 文法

也仍將有許多問題需要解決。

But there's more to the trade war than just tariffs. 文法

但貿易戰不僅僅只有關稅。

America has also imposed restrictions on some Chinese firms, 片語搭配

美國還對一些中國企業實施了限制，

especially ones in the tech industry.

尤其是科技產業的企業。

We cannot allow any other country to outcompete the United States in this powerful industry of the future.

我們不能允許任何其他國家在這個強大的未來產業中超越美國。

Specifically over one Chinese company.

尤其是針對一家中國公司。

Huawei can offer cheaper prices because they are heavily subsidized by the Chinese government. 用詞

華為能夠提供更低的價格，因為他們得到了中國政府的大量補貼。

We've made another film that looks closely at Huawei and why the West is worried about it.

我們製作了另一部影片，仔細探討了華為以及西方為何對其感到擔憂。

It includes a rare interview with Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei.

其中包含了對華為執行長任正非的罕見採訪。

And we looked into how these tensions will impact American industries already dependent on Huawei technology. 片語動詞

我們還研究了這些緊張局勢將如何影響已經依賴華為技術的美國產業。

The biggest issue, 表達脈絡

最大的問題，

I think,

我認為，

with all of this political turmoil surrounding the Huawei name is uncertainty.

伴隨圍繞華為這個名字的所有政治動盪而來的，是不確定性。

You can watch the Huawei film right now by clicking on the link opposite.

你現在就可以透過點擊對面的連結來觀看這部關於華為的影片。

And if you want to learn more about the trade war,

如果你想了解更多關於貿易戰的資訊，

you can click the other link where you'll find uh all the research we used to make this film,

你可以點擊另一個連結，在那裡你會找到呃我們用來製作這部影片的所有研究資料，

as well as other articles we've written,

以及我們寫過的其他文章，

including a special report by David Rennie.

包括戴維·倫尼撰寫的一份特別報告。

As always,

一如既往，

if you liked what you saw,

如果你喜歡你所看到的內容，

hit that subscribe button.

請點擊那個訂閱按鈕。