如果美國停止償還債務會發生什麼事？：英語精讀講義

The United States has more than $21 trillion in national debt.

美國的國債超過了21兆美元。

Let's try and wrap our heads around just how much money that is. 慣用語

讓我們試著理解一下這筆錢到底有多少。

Firstly, what's a trillion?

首先，什麼是一兆？

A trillion is 1,000 billion or one followed by 12 zeros.

一兆等於一千個十億，即1後面跟著12個零。

That's a big number, so let's break it down. 片語動詞

這是一個很大的數字，讓我們來拆解一下。

If we assume you are a millionaire and you have all your money in $1,000 bills,

假設你是一位百萬富翁，而且你所有的錢都是1000美元的面額，

that's 1,000 of them to make up your million. 片語動詞

也就是說1000張這樣的鈔票能湊成你的一百萬。

And if you stack the bills on top of each other,

如果你把這些鈔票疊在一起，

that stack would be just over 4 in high.

這疊鈔票大概只有4英吋多高。

You'd be pretty happy.

你會覺得相當開心。

Now let's say you had a thousand of those stacks making you a billionaire. 表達脈絡

現在假設你有1000疊這樣的鈔票，讓你成為億萬富翁（十億美元等級）。

The cash would now be 358 ft tall,

這些現金現在將高達358英呎，

which is roughly the height of a 35-story building.

大約是一棟35層樓高建築的高度。

And what if you had a thousand of those stacks making you a trillionaire?

那麼如果你有1000疊這樣的鈔票，讓你成為兆萬富翁呢？

Well, then your cash stack would be 67.9 mi high,

那麼你的現金堆將高達67.9英哩，

which is more than nine times the height that a commercial airline flies. 文法

這超過了商業客機飛行高度的九倍。

Now, that's just $1 trillion,

而這僅僅是1兆美元，

and the US debt is a cool 21 trillion. 用詞

美國的債務卻高達驚人的21兆。

In today's episode of The Infographics Show,

在今天的《The Infographics Show》節目中，

we're going to be looking at what would happen if the US defaulted on its debt. 文法

我們將探討如果美國發生債務違約會發生什麼事。

You don't just wake up one day and find yourself owing a stack of money that would stretch to the moon. 文法

你不會有一天醒來，突然發現自己欠下了一堆能延伸到月球的錢。

It takes a lot of spending.

這需要花費大量的資金。

50 years ago, the US national debt was around $350 billion,

50年前，美國國債約為3500億美元，

and the $1 trillion milestone was not reached until the early 1980s. 文法

而直到1980年代初才達到1兆美元的里程碑。

But that's still a big jump to arrive at today's $21 trillion.

但要達到今天的21兆美元，這仍是一個巨大的增幅。

With big tax cuts, spending on things such as war,

隨著大規模減稅、對戰爭等項目的支出，

and then with economic stimulus packages, it all adds up. 片語動詞

再加上經濟刺激方案，這一切不斷累積。

The debt rises because if the US government spends more money than it collects in taxes, 文法

債務增加是因為如果美國政府花掉的錢比收到的稅款多，

then it needs to make up the shortfall by selling US Treasury bonds to investors. 講解

那麼它就需要透過向投資者出售美國國庫券來彌補資金缺口。

These investors are typically other countries.

這些投資者通常是其他國家。

So, what's defaulting all about?

那麼，什麼是違約呢？

When a country defaults on its debt, 用詞

當一個國家未能償還其債務時，

it's called a sovereign default.

這被稱為主權違約。

If the US were to default, 文法

如果美國違約，

it would essentially stop paying the money it owed to the investors of the US Treasury bonds.

它本質上將停止向美國國庫券的投資者償還其所欠的資金。

There's a lot of speculation online about what would happen if the US stopped making these payments,

網路上有許多關於如果美國停止支付這些款項會發生什麼事的猜測，

and though many of the major media outlets have run features exploring this question, 片語搭配

儘管許多主流媒體已經做過專題報導來探討這個問題，

no one really knows exactly what would take place.

但沒有人真正確切知道會發生什麼事。

The general consensus is that the world markets would plunge 片語搭配

普遍的共識是全球市場將暴跌，

and global interest rates would be considerably hitched up.

且全球利率將大幅攀升。

And of course, the impact would be felt by the US creditors,

當然，美國的債權國將會感受到這種衝擊，

those other countries who are owed the money. 文法

也就是那些美國欠他們錢的其他國家。

Let's take a look at five potential knock-on effects 用詞

讓我們來看看五個潛在的連鎖反應，

that would occur as a result of the US defaulting on its debt. 片語搭配

這些反應將會因為美國債務違約而發生。

Depression and unemployment.

經濟蕭條與失業。

The Treasury and Federal Reserve would make their way through banks

聯準會和美國財政部的影響將波及各大銀行，

and eventually blow a hole through the Main Street economy. 慣用語

並最終對實體經濟造成重創。

The unemployment rate would rise and huge amounts of uncertainty would take center stage. 慣用語

失業率將會上升，而巨大的不確定性將佔據主導地位。

The stock market would suffer with stock prices falling

股市將會遭受重創，股價下跌，

as investors fled to other countries for safer stock or gold investments.

因為投資者將逃往其他國家尋求更安全的股票或黃金投資。

Recession would be on the economic horizon. 慣用語

經濟衰退將迫在眉睫。

Public service disruption.

公共服務中斷。

There would be no money to pay salaries or benefits

將沒有資金來支付薪水或福利，

for federal or military personnel and retirees,

包括聯邦或軍事人員以及退休人員、

Social Security recipients, Medicare bills, student loans,

社會安全福利領取者、聯邦醫療保險帳單、學貸、

tax refunds, and payments to keep government facilities open.

退稅，以及維持政府設施開放的付款。

The result would create a great deal of disruption and unrest across the American public.

其結果將在全美民眾中造成極大的混亂與動盪。

Effect on business.

對企業的影響。

A US debt default would significantly raise the cost of doing business. 片語搭配

美國債務違約將顯著提高企業的營運成本。

Companies would have to pay higher interest rates on loans and bonds

企業將不得不支付更高的貸款和債券利率，

to compete with the higher interest rates of the US Treasury.

以便與美國國庫券較高的利率競爭。

There would be price increases on goods and services and rising inflation.

商品和服務將會漲價，通貨膨脹加劇。

Business would suffer, and as a result, there would be higher unemployment.

企業將遭受打擊，結果將導致更高的失業率。

US dollar impact.

對美元的衝擊。

There would be mass selling of the US dollar,

市場將會大量拋售美元，

an event that would threaten the greenback status as the world's reserve currency. 用詞

這一事件將威脅到美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位。

Prices for everyday commodities would go up.

日常生活用品的價格將會上漲。

Our groceries, clothes, and fuel all would rise.

我們的食品雜貨、衣服和燃料都會漲價。

And we'd be saying goodbye to low mortgage rates. 慣用語

我們將不得不向低房貸利率說再見。

All of this would affect buying patterns, which again would further impact the economy.

這一切都會影響消費模式，進而再次對經濟造成更深的衝擊。

Global markets impacted.

衝擊全球市場。

The US economy has far-reaching impact, 片語搭配

美國經濟的影響力深遠，

so it would not only be the homeland where the effects would be felt.

因此受到衝擊的不僅僅是美國本土。

According to CNN Money, who referenced Treasury numbers in a 2016 feature,

根據CNN Money在2016年一篇專題報導中引用的美國財政部數據，

foreign nations hold just over 32% of the US debt.

外國持有美國債務的比例略高於32%。

The list is long, but China and Japan stand out with over 50% of the 32%. 片語動詞

這個名單很長，但中國和日本最為突出，佔了這32%中的50%以上。

As an example, Japan owns about $1.14 trillion.

舉例來說，日本持有約1.14兆美元。

This is equivalent to 20% of its annual economic output 片語搭配

這相當於其年度經濟產出的20%，

and would shake the Japanese economy for sure.

並且肯定會震撼日本經濟。

This speculation is all fascinating, we hear you say, but do we have anything to base the assumptions on? 講解

你可能會說這些猜測都很迷人，但我們有什麼依據來支持這些假設嗎？

Let's look at a real example in another country.

讓我們來看看另一個國家的真實案例。

The most recent debt crisis was in Greece in 2015.

最近一次的債務危機是2015年的希臘。

The country formally defaulted on a 1.7 billion dollar payment to the International Monetary Fund in Athens.

該國正式拖欠了向位於雅典的國際貨幣基金組織支付的17億美元款項。

Nowhere near a trillion, but it was still hugely disruptive to this Balkan tourist destination. 片語搭配

雖然遠不及一兆美元，但它對這個巴爾幹半島旅遊勝地仍然造成了巨大的破壞。

The Guardian ran an article last year looking at the effects of the Greek default.

《衛報》去年發表了一篇文章，探討希臘違約的影響。

They referenced the study by the Dianeosis think tank, 用詞

他們引用了Dianeosis智庫的研究，

which found that in 2015, 15% of the population,

該研究發現，在2015年有15%的人口，

or 1.6 million people, earned below the extreme poverty threshold,

也就是160萬人，收入低於極度貧窮線，

when six years previously in 2009, that number did not exceed 2.2%. 用詞

而在六年前的2009年，這個數字還不超過2.2%。

And according to the Bank of Greece, the net wealth of Greek households fell by a staggering 40% in the same period. 講解

根據希臘銀行的數據，希臘家庭的淨資產在同一時期下降了驚人的40%。

Though unemployment has recently dropped, 文法

儘管最近失業率有所下降，

it is still the highest in the European Union at 22%.

但仍高達22%，是歐盟中最高的。

What did this mean to an everyday Greek person?

這對一個普通的希臘人意味著什麼呢？

One example is Chrisa Christodoulaki, a French-trained hairdresser who had paid into a pension fund for almost 45 years. 片語動詞

一個例子是Chrisa Christodoulaki，一位受過法國培訓的美髮師，她已經繳納了近45年的退休金。

Her pension started out at 1,750 Euros a month, 片語動詞

她的退休金最初是每月1750歐元，

then it was cut to 1,430 Euros a month, 表達脈絡

然後被削減到每月1430歐元，

and then cut again to 960 Euros a month.

之後又再次被削減到每月960歐元。

It's not a pretty picture, but then how realistic is the prospect of the US defaulting on its debt? 講解

這絕不是一幅美好的畫面，那麼美國債務違約的前景有多真實呢？

From everything we researched, it certainly seems highly unlikely. 講解

從我們研究的一切來看，這似乎非常不可能發生。

One reason is that all US government debt is denominated in US dollar assets. 用詞

一個原因是，所有美國政府的債務都是以美元資產計價的。

But a more intriguing reason the US would apparently never default,

但美國顯然永遠不會違約的一個更引人入勝的原因，

in the words of Alan Greenspan, 表達脈絡

用前聯準會主席Alan Greenspan的話來說，

an American economist who served as chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States from 1987 to 2006,

他是一位美國經濟學家，曾於1987年至2006年擔任美國聯準會主席，

is that the United States can pay any debt it has because it can always print money to do that.

那就是美國可以償還任何它所欠的債務，因為它總是可以透過印鈔票來做到這一點。

So, there is zero probability of default.

因此，違約的機率為零。

We're not entirely sure how true that is, but it's certainly an interesting idea to consider. 語氣意圖

我們不完全確定這有多真實，但這無疑是一個值得思考的有趣觀點。

So, what do you think would happen if the US defaulted on its debt?

那麼，你認為如果美國債務違約會發生什麼事呢？

War?

戰爭？

Famine?

饑荒？

The apocalypse?

世界末日？

Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

請在留言區告訴我們你的想法。

Also, be sure to check out our other video called How is life different for billionaires?

此外，請務必觀看我們的另一支影片，名稱為《億萬富翁的生活有何不同？》

Thanks for watching, and as always, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe.

感謝您的收看，一如往常，別忘了按讚、分享和訂閱。

See you next time.

我們下次見。