傑利蠑螈：你的選舉是如何被操縱的：英語精讀講義

Queen Lion of the animal kingdom is giving more democracy to her citizens

動物王國的獅子女王正在賦予她的公民更多民主，

by adding a legislative branch to the government. 文化背景

透過在政府中增加一個立法機構來實現。

The citizens each get one vote and are divided into ranges. 文法

公民每人有一票，並被劃分到不同選區。

Each range will elect one representative

每個選區將選舉一名代表

to send to the newly created Jungle Council.

送入新成立的叢林委員會。

To best understand how the system works,

為了更好地理解這個系統是如何運作的，

let's take a look at a small colony where there are just two political parties, 片語搭配

讓我們來看一個小小的聚居地，那裡只有兩個政黨，

the buffalo and jackalope.

水牛黨和鹿角兔黨。

This colony is divided into four ranges.

這個聚居地被分為四個選區。

In the first election,

在第一次選舉中，

jackalope candidates win two of them

鹿角兔黨的候選人贏得了其中兩個選區，

and buffalo candidates win the rest.

而水牛黨的候選人贏得了其餘的。

All is well for several election cycles 片語搭配

在隨後的幾個選舉週期裡一切順利，

until the animal kingdom census taker comes around 片語動詞

直到動物王國的人口普查員到來，

and shows that the population has both moved and grown. 文法

並指出人口既發生了遷移又有所增長。

To better represent the larger population,

為了更好地代表更多的人口，

a new seat is added to the Jungle Council,

叢林委員會增加了一個新席位，

so the ranges' boundaries must be redrawn.

因此必須重新劃分選區的邊界。

This is where the trouble begins. 表達脈絡

麻煩就此開始。

Redrawing electoral boundaries is a huge political problem.

重新劃分選舉邊界是一個巨大的政治問題。

To help them,

為了解決這個問題，

the representatives of the Jungle Council hire a weaselly consultant

叢林委員會的代表們聘請了一位像鼬鼠般狡猾的顧問

to figure out where the new boundaries should go. 片語動詞

來決定新邊界應該劃在哪裡。

If Weasel draws rectangular boundaries,

如果鼬鼠劃定矩形的邊界，

everything will be okay because the Jungle Council will,

一切都會沒問題，因為叢林委員會將會

as close as possible, 片語搭配

盡可能地

reflect how the citizens vote.

反映公民的投票結果。

However,

然而，

Weasel doesn't do this.

鼬鼠並沒有這麼做。

Instead,

相反，

he tells the buffalo party that,

他告訴水牛黨，

for a price, 片語搭配

只要付出一點代價，

he can turn their slim majority into a landslide victory in the election. 文法

他就能把他們微弱的多數優勢變成選舉中的壓倒性勝利。

With a super majority on the Jungle Council,

如果在叢林委員會中佔據絕對多數，

the buffalo wouldn't have to listen to those pesky jackalope filibusters anymore,

水牛黨就不必再聽鹿角兔黨那些煩人的冗長辯論了，

so the buffalo gladly pay up. 片語動詞

所以水牛黨很樂意地付了錢。

How can Weasel deliver on his promise? 片語搭配

鼬鼠如何兌現他的承諾呢？

It's depressingly simple.

這簡單得令人沮喪。

By packing together as many jackalope voters into one range as possible 文法

透過將盡可能多的鹿角兔黨選民集中到一個選區，

and spreading the rest of them out,

並將其餘選民分散開來，

the buffalo party can win an additional seat without any voters switching allegiance. 文法

水牛黨無需任何選民改變立場就能贏得一個額外席位。

What Weasel and the buffalo have done is called gerrymandering, 講解

鼬鼠和水牛黨所做的被稱為「傑利蠑螈」（不公劃分選區），

the intentional changing of electoral boundaries for their benefit.

即為了自身利益而蓄意更改選舉邊界。

Several election cycles later,

幾個選舉週期後，

the underrepresented and disgruntled jackalope party approaches Weasel

代表性不足且心生不滿的鹿角兔黨找到了鼬鼠，

and asks if he can manipulate the ranges to be in their favor 片語搭配

詢問他是否能把選區操縱得對他們有利，

instead of in the buffaloes.

而不是對水牛有利。

Why, indeed, he can. 語氣意圖

當然，他確實能做到。

Using the same trick,

使用同樣的把戲，

Weasel packs buffalo voters into a few ranges

鼬鼠將水牛黨的選民集中在少數幾個選區中，

and spreads the rest among the jackalope supporters.

並將其餘選民分散到鹿角兔黨的支持者中。

After the election,

選舉結束後，

the jackalopes, who represent a minority of voters,

只代表少數選民的鹿角兔黨，

are now, nonetheless, the majority party on the Jungle Council. 表達脈絡

現在卻成了叢林委員會中的多數黨。

This is the terrible power of gerrymandering.

這就是「傑利蠑螈」可怕的威力。

Weasel can take the exact same voters and get either party to win the election. 文法

鼬鼠可以使用完全相同的選民，讓任何一個政黨贏得選舉。

Unsurprisingly,

不出所料，

Weasel's business grows

鼬鼠的生意越做越大，

and eventually every colony in the animal kingdom pays him to gerrymander their ranges.

最終動物王國裡的每一個聚居地都付錢讓他來操縱選區。

With so many clients,

由於客戶眾多，

Weasel now uses his computer to test hundreds of thousands of range combinations

鼬鼠現在使用他的電腦來測試成千上萬種選區組合，

with elaborate statistical models of voter behavior

並結合複雜的選民行為統計模型

to get the results he needs.

來獲得他需要的結果。

Queen Lion has seen what Weasel is up to 片語動詞

獅子女王看穿了鼬鼠的勾當，

and banishes him from her kingdom.

並將他逐出了王國。

But,

但是，

the census taker reminds her that ranges still need to be redrawn as the population changes.

人口普查員提醒她，隨著人口的變化，選區仍然需要重新劃分。

So, how is it going to be decided? 文法

那麼，該如何決定呢？

Queen Lion suggests the obvious solution:

獅子女王提出了一個顯而易見的解決方案：

a bipartisan committee must agree on all new range boundaries.

必須由一個兩黨組成的委員會就所有新的選區邊界達成一致。

This seems like a good idea.

這似乎是個好主意。

After all, if both parties have to agree on the ranges, 表達脈絡

畢竟，如果兩黨必須就選區達成一致，

then they must end up being fair to everyone. 片語動詞

那麼結果最終肯定對所有人都是公平的。

But,

但是，

after a few election cycles using this solution,

在使用這個方案經過了幾個選舉週期後，

Queen Lion notices that she always sees the same faces on the Jungle Council.

獅子女王注意到她在叢林委員會上總是看到同樣的面孔。

Representatives almost never get defeated in their elections.

代表們在選舉中幾乎從未被擊敗過。

It turns out that the interests of the representatives 表達脈絡

事實證明，代表們的利益

and the interests of the citizens are not the same.

與公民的利益並不相同。

Citizens want elections where the candidates have to earn their vote. 片語搭配

公民希望在選舉中候選人必須努力爭取他們的選票。

These are close elections where either candidate has a chance of winning. 片語搭配

在這些勢均力敵的選舉中，任何一位候選人都有獲勝的機會。

But, representatives don't want close elections,

但是，代表們不想要勢均力敵的選舉，

they want safe elections,

他們想要萬無一失的選舉，

elections where they run in a range that is filled with supporters. 用詞

即在一個充滿支持者的選區裡競選。

Because the representatives are in charge of the boundaries, 片語搭配

因為是代表們負責劃定邊界，

they make the safest ranges possible.

所以他們制定了最安全的選區。

So, bipartisan committees are not enough.

因此，兩黨委員會是不夠的。

To truly fix gerrymandering,

為了真正解決「傑利蠑螈」問題，

there are three options.

有三個選項。

The first is to set up a politically independent commission of appointed experts 片語動詞

第一個是建立一個由指定的專家或法官組成的政治獨立的委員會

or judges to draw the boundaries.

來劃定邊界。

Independent commissions are much better than bipartisan committees,

獨立委員會比兩黨委員會好得多，

but still not ideal because they usually group similar areas together,

但仍然不夠理想，因為他們通常將相似的區域劃分在一起，

so the elections are uncompetitive.

這導致選舉缺乏競爭性。

And there's always the possibility that the independent commission

而且，獨立委員會總是存在這樣一種可能性：

is not as independent as it appears. 文法

他們並不像表面上看起來那麼獨立。

The second option is to let math decide the boundaries.

第二個選項是讓數學來決定邊界。

There are a number of ways to mathematically divide an area into equally populous ranges. 用詞

有很多種方法可以透過數學計算將一個地區劃分為人口相等的選區。

The simplest example of this is called the shortest split line method.

其中最簡單的例子被稱為「最短分割線法」。

Find the shortest line that splits the voters in twain 用詞

找到將選民一分為二的最短直線，

and repeat as necessary until all the ranges are made.

並根據需要重複操作，直到所有選區都劃分完畢。

This is much better than an independent commission,

這比獨立委員會好得多，

but it does have the problem of occasionally producing skewed election results 文法

但它確實存在偶爾產生偏斜的選舉結果的問題，

just through the pure bad luck of where the boundaries are drawn.

這僅僅是因為邊界劃定位置純屬運氣不佳。

But, by publishing the algorithm used,

但是，透過公開所使用的演算法，

all citizens can check the results and be confident that there is no intentional bias in the system. 片語搭配

所有公民都可以檢查結果，並確信系統中沒有故意的偏見。

The last solution is an unexpected one:

最後一個解決方案出人意料：

hire back the Weasel and embrace gerrymandering. 慣用語

把鼬鼠僱回來，坦然接受「傑利蠑螈」。

But, this time,

但是，這一次，

pay him to make the winners most closely match the voters as a whole. 片語搭配

付錢讓他使獲勝者最緊密地匹配整體選民的比例。

While it seems unsavory, 文法

雖然這看起來令人不快，

this is actually the best way to avoid disproportionate representation,

這實際上是避免不成比例的代表性的最佳方法，

which is, by far, 片語搭配

而這顯然是

the worst problem of gerrymandering.

「傑利蠑螈」最嚴重的問題。

But, considering these three solutions leaves Queen Lion grumpy. 文法

但是，考慮到這三個解決方案，獅子女王感到很暴躁。

The first two are improvements,

前兩個是改進，

but still may result in uncompetitive elections or disproportionate results, 片語搭配

但仍然可能導致缺乏競爭性的選舉或不成比例的結果，

while the third just feels wrong. 表達脈絡

而第三個只是感覺不對勁。

Gerrymandering to avoid the problems of gerrymandering is odd.

為了避免「傑利蠑螈」的問題而使用「傑利蠑螈」是很奇怪的。

Remembering what she learned about voting before,

回想一下她之前學到的關於投票的知識，

she realizes that all this gerrymandering is really just a symptom of a more fundamental problem: 慣用語

她意識到所有這些「傑利蠑螈」實際上只是一個更根本問題的症狀：

the method by which each citizen gets only one vote 文法

即每個公民只能獲得一張選票

and elects only one representative.

並只能選出一名代表的方法。

There are ways to eliminate gerrymandering and restore competitive elections

有很多方法可以消除「傑利蠑螈」並恢復競爭性選舉

to make her citizens happy, 文法

以讓她的公民滿意，

but to do that,

但為了做到這點，

Queen Lion is going to have to make some big fundamental changes to her democracy. 文法

獅子女王將不得不對她的民主制度進行一些重大的根本性改變。