戰爭正在消失的三大原因：英語精讀講義

So if you read the headlines,

所以，如果你讀了那些新聞標題，

it kind of seems like the world is a terrible place 語氣意圖

你可能會覺得這個世界糟透了，

full of violence, despair, and war.

到處都是暴力、絕望和戰爭。

But it turns out 表達脈絡

但事實卻是，

war is actually declining.

戰爭其實正在減少。

We live in the most peaceful time

我們正生活在人類歷史上

in human history.

最和平的時代。

There's lots of reasons why, 用詞

這背後有很多原因，

but here's three of the biggest ones.

但這裡要講其中最重要的三個。

First, the spread of democracy around the world.

第一，民主制度在全球的普及。

International relations scholars have found consistently

國際關係學者一再發現，

that democracies don't fight wars with each other.

民主國家之間不會彼此開戰。

Now, why is that true?

那麼，為什麼會這樣呢？

There might be plenty of reasons,

原因可能有很多，

but one big one is that people who live in democracies 表達脈絡

但一個重要原因是，生活在民主國家的人

think it's wrong to start wars with other democracies.

認為對其他民主國家發動戰爭是不對的。

They're legitimate governments.

這些都是具正當性的政府。

It's wrong to attack them.

攻擊這些政府是不對的。

But there's a flip side to this. 慣用語

但這也有另一面。

Democracies do often fight wars with autocracies. 文法

民主國家確實經常與威權國家開戰。

Luckily, most of the world's countries are democracies now.

幸運的是，如今世界上大多數國家都是民主國家。

So the democratic peace is probably making the world a much more peaceful place. 文法

所以，民主國家之間的和平很可能正讓世界變得和平許多。

Second big reason why war is declining is nuclear deterrence. 用詞

戰爭正在減少的第二大原因是核嚇阻。

Nuclear weapons obviously big and scary.

核武器顯然威力巨大，也令人恐懼。

However, nuclear deterrence may have prevented a devastating war 文法

然而，核嚇阻可能阻止了一場毀滅性戰爭

between the United States and the Soviet Union. 文化背景

在美國和蘇聯之間爆發。

Everyone recognized that they would lose.

所有人都意識到，自己會輸。

Statistical evidence suggests that that is true, 表達脈絡

統計證據顯示，情況確實如此，

that is that most countries 表達脈絡

也就是說，大多數國家

are too scared of the consequences 文法

都太害怕核戰爭的後果，

of nuclear war to fight one.

因而不敢發動核戰爭。

There's a dark side and not just the risk 慣用語

這也有黑暗的一面，而且問題不只是

of global annihilation from an accident.

意外導致全球毀滅的風險。

If a country gets nuclear weapons,

如果一個國家擁有了核武器，

they feel rather safer 用詞

它就會覺得更有安全感，

in being aggressive in little ways,

敢於採取一些小規模的侵略行動，

you know, small conflicts or bullying

比如挑起小規模衝突，或霸凌

around their non-nuclear neighbors.

周邊那些沒有核武器的鄰國。

This weird paradox that nuclear weapons

核武器會造成這樣一種奇怪的悖論：

make the world more violent and 表達脈絡

它讓世界變得更加暴力，

more peaceful at the same time

同時也變得更加和平，

is called the stability-instability paradox. 用詞

這被稱為「穩定—不穩定悖論」。

The third reason that war's declined

戰爭減少的第三個原因，

has been the spread of the idea of national sovereignty. 用詞

是國家主權觀念的普及。

This idea is hundreds of years old,

這一觀念已有數百年歷史，

the idea that you shouldn't interfere

它主張一個國家不應干涉

inside the borders of another state.

另一個國家境內的事務。

But people didn't take the idea too seriously 片語搭配

但過去人們並不太把這一觀念當一回事，

because stealing new land used to be 文法

因為搶奪新的領土曾經是

a major cause of war.

引發戰爭的一個主要原因。

Think of American and European colonialism 表達脈絡

想想美國和歐洲的殖民主義，

or World War II.

或者第二次世界大戰。

But after World War II,

但在第二次世界大戰之後，

nations pledged to stop. 用詞

各國承諾不再這麼做。

Since 1976, there hasn't been a single successful war of conquest 講解

自1976年以來，沒有任何一場征服戰爭取得成功，

except for maybe Russia in Crimea really recently.

或許最近俄羅斯在克里米亞的行動算是例外。

Again, though, sovereignty has a flip side.

不過，主權同樣也有另一面。

Sometimes governments go to war against their own people, 片語搭配

有時，政府會向本國人民開戰，

and poor weak governments often collapse into civil war. 片語搭配

而貧窮、脆弱的政府往往會垮台，國家隨之陷入內戰。

Sovereignty makes it hard for the international community 文法

主權原則讓國際社會很難

to intervene to stop either of those kinds of wars.

介入並制止這兩類戰爭中的任何一種。

But on the whole, 表達脈絡

但整體而言，

when you see those terrible headlines,

當你看到那些駭人的新聞標題時，

remember the world's way better off than it ever has been. 用詞

請記住，如今的世界比以往任何時候都好得多。

There's less war and less violence

戰爭和暴力的數量

than almost any other time in human history.

都少於人類歷史上幾乎任何其他時期。

That's something worth celebrating. 文法

這值得我們慶祝。