人口過剩與非洲：英語精讀講義

For most of our history, 片語搭配

在我們歷史的大部分時間裡，

the human population grew slowly

人口增長非常緩慢，

until new discoveries brought us more food

直到新發現為我們帶來了更多的食物，

and made us live longer. 文法

並讓我們活得更長久。

In just 100 years, 片語搭配

短短 100 年間，

the human population quadrupled.

全球人口翻了兩番。

This led to apocalyptic visions 慣用語

這引發了如同世界末日般的景象，

of an overcrowded Earth.

人們擔憂地球將人滿為患。

But the population growth rate

但人口增長率

actually peaked in the 1960s.

實際上在 20 世紀 60 年代就達到了頂峰。

Since then, 表達脈絡

從那時起，

fertility rates have crashed 慣用語

生育率暴跌，

as countries industrialize and develop.

隨著各國的工業化和發展。

The world population is now expected to balance out 片語動詞

如今世界人口預計將趨於平衡，

at around 11 billion by the end of the century.

在本世紀末達到約 110 億。

But the big picture conceals the details. 慣用語

但宏觀畫面掩蓋了細節。

Let's look at one region in particular, 片語搭配

讓我們特別關注一個地區，

Sub-Saharan Africa.

撒哈拉以南非洲。

In 2019,

在 2019 年，

it was home to a billion people 片語搭配

這裡擁有 10 億人口，

living in 46 countries.

居住在 46 個國家。

Although its growth rate has slowed down in the last few decades, 片語動詞

儘管在過去幾十年裡其增長率有所放緩，

it's still much higher than in the rest of the world.

但仍遠高於世界其他地區。

While some projections expect around 2.6 billion people, 文法

儘管一些預測認為會達到約 26 億人，

others reckon with up to 5 billion

另一些則估計多達 50 億人，

by 2100.

到了 2100 年。

Such growth would be a huge challenge for any society,

這樣的增長對任何社會來說都將是巨大的挑戰，

but Sub-Saharan Africa is also the poorest region on Earth.

而且撒哈拉以南非洲還是地球上最貧窮的地區。

So is Sub-Saharan Africa doomed?

那麼，撒哈拉以南非洲注定要完蛋了嗎？

And why did the projections vary 片語搭配

為什麼預測的人數會相差

by 2.4 billion people?

24 億人之多？

As always, 表達脈絡

像往常一樣，

it's complicated.

事情很複雜。

Sub-Saharan Africa is a made-up idea 用詞

撒哈拉以南非洲是一個虛構的概念，

and in many ways, unhelpful one.

而且在很多方面毫無幫助。

Botswana is as far away from Sierra Leone 文法

波札那離獅子山有多遠

as Ireland is from Kazakhstan,

就像愛爾蘭離哈薩克一樣遠，

and they have about as much in common. 片語搭配

它們之間的共同點也差不多。

But without generalizing a little bit, 文法

但如果不稍微概括一下，

this video would be an hour long.

這支影片就會長達一個小時。

We've also talked to many different scientists

我們也和許多不同的科學家交談過

for this video

為了這支影片，

and they disagreed on a lot of things. 片語搭配

但他們在很多事情上意見不一。

Mainly on how much fertility matters to poverty.

主要是關於生育率對貧困的影響有多大。

We've done our best to summarize our research and what they told us, 片語搭配

我們已盡力總結我們的研究和他們告訴我們的內容，

but take it with a grain of salt 慣用語

但請持保留態度，

and check out our sources 片語動詞

看看我們的參考資料，

where we discussed in more detail.

我們在那裡進行了更詳細的討論。

Okay,

好了，

let's zoom out to the global perspective again. 表達脈絡

讓我們再次將視野拉回到全球。

A few decades ago,

幾十年前，

many countries in Asia were at a similar point 片語搭配

亞洲許多國家也處於相似的階段，

to Sub-Saharan Africa today.

就如同今天的撒哈拉以南非洲一樣。

Large parts of the population were living in extreme poverty 片語搭配

大部分人口生活在極度貧困中，

and birth rates were very high.

而且出生率非常高。

Take Bangladesh. 表達脈絡

以孟加拉為例。

In the 1960s,

在 20 世紀 60 年代，

the average woman had seven children in her lifetime.

女性一生平均生育 7 個孩子。

25% of them died before they turned five

其中 25% 在五歲前夭折，

and of the ones that survived,

而在倖存的孩子中，

only one in five would learn to read and write. 用詞

只有五分之一能學會讀書寫字。

Life expectancy was around 45

預期壽命約為 45 歲，

and per capita income was among the lowest in the world. 用詞

人均收入更是排在世界倒數幾位。

So beginning in the 1960s,

因此，從 20 世紀 60 年代開始，

Bangladesh started a family planning program

孟加拉啟動了一項家庭計畫項目，

based on three main pillars. 慣用語

基於三大支柱。

One,

第一，

education helped to change women's outlook.

教育幫助改變了女性的觀念。

Women with a higher education tend to want fewer kids 文法

接受過高等教育的女性往往想要更少的孩子，

and become mothers later in life.

生育第一胎的年齡也會推遲。

Two,

第二，

better healthcare lowered child mortality,

更好的醫療降低了兒童死亡率，

leading to parents wanting fewer children 文法

使得父母傾向於要更少的孩子，

because they could expect them to survive. 文法

因為他們能預期孩子會存活下來。

Three,

第三，

field workers brought contraceptives

外勤工作人員帶來了避孕用品，

even to the remotest areas,

甚至送到了最偏遠的地區，

which drove contraceptive use 片語搭配

這推動了避孕普及率的提升，

from 8% in 1975

從 1975 年的 8%

to 76% in 2019.

增長到 2019 年的 76%。

Together,

綜合起來，

these measures greatly slowed down population growth.

這些措施極大地減緩了人口增長。

In 1960,

1960 年，

the average Bangladeshi woman had seven kids.

孟加拉女性平均生育 7 個孩子。

In 1995,

1995 年，

four,

是 4 個，

and in 2019,

而到了 2019 年，

it was down to two. 片語搭配

這個數字降到了 2 個。

This also changed the country's demographics and the economy.

這也改變了該國的人口結構和經濟。

Before,

過去，

many children were born but died

許多孩子雖然出生卻不幸夭折，

before they got to contribute to society. 文法

沒能活到為社會做出貢獻的時候。

As far fewer kids die and fewer kids are born, 文法

隨著死亡兒童數量大減，出生人數也變少，

things change.

事情發生了改變。

Kids get an education and turn into productive adults.

孩子們接受教育，並成長為有生產力的成年人。

The government was able to shift some of their resources 片語搭配

政府得以將部分資源

from lowering child mortality to boosting the economy.

從降低兒童死亡率轉移到促進經濟發展上。

By 2024,

到 2024 年，

Bangladesh is expected to graduate 文化背景

孟加拉預計將畢業，

from the category of least developed countries

從最不發達國家行列中脫穎而出，

to the status of a developing economy.

躋身為發展中經濟體。

Other Asian countries like South Korea,

韓國、

India,

印度、

Thailand,

泰國、

or the Philippines

或者菲律賓等其他亞洲國家

have gone through a similar process, 片語動詞

也經歷了類似的過程，

often even faster.

往往甚至更快。

Investment in health and education led to lower birth rates,

在健康和教育領域的投資導致了出生率下降，

which changed the composition of the population

這改變了人口的構成，

and enabled governments to boost the economy. 文法

並使政府能夠促進經濟發展。

Why didn't the same thing happen everywhere

為什麼同樣的事情沒有在所有地方發生

in Sub-Saharan Africa?

在撒哈拉以南非洲呢？

Africa as a whole has made considerable progress 片語搭配

非洲整體已經取得了長足的進步，

with childhood mortality,

在降低兒童死亡率方面，

but especially in Sub-Saharan Africa,

但尤其是在撒哈拉以南非洲，

education has improved slower than in other parts of the world.

教育改善的速度慢於世界其他地區。

And while in total contraceptive use has doubled

雖然避孕的總體使用量已經翻倍，

in the region since 1990,

自 1990 年以來在該地區，

the unmet need for modern contraception among adolescents 用詞

但青少年對現代避孕措施的未滿足需求

is still at about 60%.

仍高達約 60%。

The reasons for this are complicated

其中的原因很複雜，

and it's impossible to give a single answer here. 文法

不可能在這裡給出一個單一的答案。

Africa is a big place with diverse cultures and people,

非洲幅員遼闊，文化和人民都各不相同，

but there are a few main factors.

但有幾個主要因素。

Many Sub-Saharan nations have suffered under colonization

許多撒哈拉以南國家飽受殖民統治的苦難，

until only a few decades ago

直到幾十年前才結束，

and had rough transition periods towards independence. 用詞

並且經歷了走向獨立的艱難過渡期。

The young nations were often ethnically heterogeneous 用詞

這些年輕的國家通常有著複雜的民族構成，

and lacked unity.

缺乏凝聚力。

Some areas have been repeatedly wracked by civil wars, 用詞

某些地區屢次遭受內戰、

military conflicts,

軍事衝突的蹂躪，

or suffered under unstable governments,

或是受苦於動盪的政府，

which made it really hard 文法

這使得擴大基礎設施建設和醫療保障

to expand infrastructure and healthcare.

變得非常困難。

So Africa had a worse starting point than Asia. 慣用語

因此，非洲的起點比亞洲更糟。

Foreign aid and how it was applied,

外國援助及其應用方式，

especially during the Cold War,

特別是在冷戰期間，

is also a contentious issue. 用詞

也是一個備受爭議的問題。

But this topic is too complex to summarize in a few sentences, 文法

但這個話題太複雜了，無法用幾句話總結，

so we'll make a whole video about it in the future.

所以未來我們會專門做一支影片來探討。

And lastly,

最後，

there are cultural aspects that make talking about family plan in the context of Africa difficult.

在非洲探討家庭計畫，還有文化層面的困難。

Critics say that trying to bring fertility down 片語動詞

批評者認為，試圖降低生育率

is an intrusion into culture and tradition. 用詞

是對文化和傳統的侵犯。

But not speaking about an issue will not help solve it. 表達脈絡

但避而不談無助於解決問題。

Not all of these things apply to every country in the region. 文法

並非所有這些情況都適用於該地區的每一個國家。

We're talking about 46 countries,

我們討論的可是 46 個國家，

after all, 表達脈絡

畢竟，

some of them deeply troubled, 文法

其中一些深陷困境，

others already flourishing,

另一些已經繁榮發展，

all different and facing unique problems.

它們各不相同，且面臨著獨特的問題。

If population growth continues at its present rate, 文法

如果人口增長以目前的速度繼續下去，

then Sub-Saharan Africa could grow

那麼撒哈拉以南非洲的人口可能會增長

to more than 4 billion people by 2100.

到 2100 年超過 40 億人。

Okay,

那麼，

so what can be done? 文法

有什麼辦法呢？

Actually,

實際上，

a lot,

能做的很多，

especially investment and aid

尤其是投資和援助，

that helped to build systems

幫助建立完善的體系

for education,

用於教育、

family planning,

家庭計畫，

and healthcare.

和醫療。

Surprisingly small changes

一些微小的改變

could have an extreme impact.

就能帶來巨大的影響。

For example,

例如，

if women get a better education

如果女性獲得更好的教育，

and have their first child just two years later in life.

僅僅將生育第一胎的年齡推遲兩年。

This tiny gap between this generation and the next one

這一代與下一代之間看似微小的差距，

would lead to 400 million fewer people 文法

將會導致減少 4 億人口

in 2100

在 2100 年，

with 3.6 billion in total.

屆時總人口將為 36 億。

If education and family planning

如果教育和家庭計畫

are made available to every African woman, 片語搭配

能夠普及到每一位非洲女性，

universal access to contraception 用詞

全面提供避孕服務

makes having kids a decision. 文法

讓生孩子成為一種選擇。

If families get to choose how many kids they want, 文法

如果家庭可以選擇想要多少個孩子，

birth projections fall by 30% 片語搭配

出生預測人口將下降 30%，

to 2.8 billion people.

降至 28 億人。

This isn't just theory. 表達脈絡

這不僅僅是理論。

There are already examples that are reason for optimism.

現在已經有了讓人感到樂觀的先例。

Ethiopia, 文法

衣索比亞，

the African country with the second biggest population,

非洲人口第二大國，

has made a lot of progress in a relatively short amount of time. 片語搭配

在相對較短的時間裡取得了巨大進步。

Improving health services led to a drop in child mortality 片語搭配

醫療服務的改善使得兒童死亡率下降，

from 20% to 7% since 1990.

從 1990 年的 20% 降至 7%。

And up to 30% of the annual budget 片語搭配

年度預算中高達 30%

was invested in education

被投入到教育領域，

and the number of schools increased 25-fold 用詞

學校數量增加了 25 倍，

over two decades.

在過去的二十年裡。

So summarizing,

總而言之，

there are serious challenges ahead, 片語搭配

擺在面前的挑戰很嚴峻，

but they are far from unsolvable. 文法

但它們絕非無法解決。

Sub-Saharan Africa does not need pity or gifts, 表達脈絡

撒哈拉以南非洲不需要憐憫或施捨，

but attention and fair investment.

而是需要關注與公平的投資。

It's a region rich in resources, 片語搭配

這是一個資源豐富的地區，

culture,

擁有燦爛的文化，

and potential.

和巨大的潛力。

If things go right, 片語搭配

如果一切順利，

we'll see a turnaround similar to the one we've seen 片語搭配

我們將看到類似於我們所見過的轉機，

across most of Asia in the last 30 years.

就像過去 30 年大多數亞洲國家所經歷的那樣。