戰爭結束了嗎？——解析一個悖論：英語精讀講義

Violence and war.

暴力與戰爭。

The insane brutality of ISIS continues.

ISIS的瘋狂暴行還在繼續。

The Russians are invading Ukraine

俄羅斯正在入侵烏克蘭，

and the Palestinians and Israelis continue to slug it out. 慣用語

而巴勒斯坦人和以色列人繼續著拉鋸戰。

Does that make you feel gloomy?

這會讓你感到沮喪嗎？

Well, don't, because if you look at the numbers,

嗯，大可不必，因為如果你看看這些數據，

war actually seems to be going out of fashion, 慣用語

戰爭實際上似乎正在過時，

while the global population is at an all-time high. 片語搭配

而全球人口卻處於歷史最高水準。

It seems that we live in the most peaceful period in human history.

看來我們生活在人類歷史上最和平的時期。

How is this possible?

這怎麼可能呢？

As of September 2014, 片語搭配

截至2014年9月，

there were four conflicts going on in the world

世界上有四場正在進行中的衝突，

that had caused at least 10,000 people to die since January 2013.

自2013年1月以來，它們導致了至少一萬人死亡。

Nine conflicts that killed more than 1,000 people

有9場衝突導致超過1000人死亡，

and 13 that killed more than 100 since January 2013.

還有13場自2013年1月以來導致超過100人死亡。

Not really peaceful,

並不算真正和平，

but consider this.

但考慮一下這個。

Of all the conflicts going on,

在所有正在發生的衝突中，

none is an active war between countries.

沒有一場是國家之間真正意義上的戰爭。

They are either civil wars or local conflicts. 文法

它們要嘛是內戰，要嘛是局部衝突。

Although civil wars are terrible and cause huge suffering,

儘管內戰很可怕，並帶來巨大的痛苦，

their impact is usually way smaller than a war between nations or empires. 文法

但它們的影響通常遠小於國家或帝國之間的戰爭。

When two nations engage in war, 片語搭配

當兩個國家交戰時，

they can mobilize much bigger forces,

它們可以動員大得多的兵力，

have access to all of the state's resources and logistics, 片語搭配

可以動用國家所有的資源和後勤，

and almost all of the population.

以及幾乎所有的民眾。

So,

所以，

why have we transitioned from wars between nation-states 文法

為什麼我們從民族國家之間的戰爭

to civil wars?

轉變為了內戰？

A lot of it is to do with colonialism and the Cold War. 片語搭配

這很大程度上與殖民主義和冷戰有關。

When the Cold War ended,

冷戰結束後，

a major driver of armed conflict vanished too. 用詞

武裝衝突的一個主要驅動力也消失了。

But the breakup of the communist dictatorships revealed new or old tensions

但是共產主義獨裁政權的解體暴露出新的或舊的緊張局勢，

and brought new conflicts in the now freed states,

並在如今獲得自由的國家中帶來了新衝突，

which often resulted in civil war.

這往往導致內戰。

Much more importantly,

更重要的是，

in 1945,

在1945年，

nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,

幾乎整個非洲、大部分亞洲地區

and parts of Latin America were under colonial rule.

以及部分拉丁美洲都處於殖民統治之下。

By 1990,

到了1990年，

all but a few islands were independent. 文法

除了一些島嶼，其他都已經獨立。

But wait,

但等等，

couldn't you argue that what today's multinational corporations 語氣意圖

難道不能說今天跨國公司

are doing in the Third World is just as bad as colonialism? 文法

在第三世界的所作所為和殖民主義一樣糟糕嗎？

Let's look at Congo.

讓我們看看剛果。

It was established as a colony in 1885 by the Belgian king,

它在1885年由比利時國王確立為殖民地，

an area 80 times the size of Belgium. 文法

面積是比利時的80倍。

Violence committed against the indigenous Congolese

對剛果原住民施加的暴力

and the ruthless system of economic exploitation 用詞

以及殘酷的經濟剝削系統，

had killed about half of the population by 1908. 文法

在1908年前奪走了一半人口的生命。

About 10 million Congolese were executed or starved to death. 片語搭配

大約一千萬剛果人被處決或餓死。

Millions were mutilated and traumatized.

數百萬人被殘害，身心受創。

The economic exploitation of the Congo remained the top priority

對剛果的經濟剝削仍然是頭等大事，

and forced labor never really ceased completely

而強迫勞動從未真正完全停止過，

until the end of Belgian rule in 1960,

直到1960年比利時統治結束，

which is not really that long ago.

那其實並沒有過去太久。

So, no,

所以，不是的，

colonialism was much worse than vulture capitalism is today, 慣用語

殖民主義比今天的禿鷲資本主義要糟糕得多，

and it ended just two generations ago.

而它結束於僅僅兩代人之前。

Most of the conflicts that are going on right now

目前正在發生的大多數衝突，

are in areas that 60 years ago were under foreign control.

都處於60年前被外國控制的地區。

But things are getting better.

但情況正在好轉。

Until 1989,

直到1989年之前，

victory for one side in a civil war was common, 文法

在內戰中一方取得勝利是很常見的，

while nowadays, victories are much rarer.

而如今，這種勝利要罕見得多。

At the same time,

與此同時，

negotiated endings have jumped from 10% to almost 40%. 講解

談判結束的比例從10%躍升到了近40%。

What about the rest of the world?

那世界其他地方呢？

Why have nation-states stopped attacking each other?

為什麼民族國家不再互相攻擊了？

There are four major reasons. 表達脈絡

有四個主要原因。

One,

第一，

democratization.

民主化。

The steady development from autocracy to democracy. 文法

從專制到民主的穩步發展。

Democracies hardly ever fight each other. 文法

民主國家幾乎從不互相開戰。

Of all the state-against-state wars fought since 1900, 用詞

自1900年以來打響的所有國家間的戰爭中，

only a minority were fought between democracies.

只有少數是在民主國家之間發生的。

Two,

第二，

globalization.

全球化。

War is just not as effective at achieving economic goals as it used to be. 文法

在實現經濟目標方面，戰爭已經不如過去有效了。

Today,

今天，

it's almost always cheaper to buy resources on the global market 文法

在全球市場上購買資源幾乎總是比

than to seize them by force.

用武力奪取更划算。

People from other nations are more valuable to us alive than dead,

活著的他國人民比死去的對我們更有價值，

which overall is a pretty new concept. 用詞

這總體上是一個相當新的概念。

Three,

第三，

war is so 20th century. 慣用語

戰爭太20世紀了。

Until World War I,

直到第一次世界大戰之前，

warfare was seen as an inevitable part of the human experience

戰爭一直被視為人類經驗中不可避免的一部分，

and as a valuable tool,

並且作為一個有價值的工具，

which you could use to achieve goals when diplomacy hit a brick wall. 慣用語

在外交碰壁時，你可以用它來實現目標。

Today,

今天，

we have rules that declare acts of aggression illegal 用詞

我們有明文規定將侵略行為宣布為非法，

and stipulate that armed force is only justified in self-defense 用詞

並規定只有在自衛

or with the authority of the UN Security Council. 文化背景

或獲得聯合國安理會授權的情況下使用武力才是正當的。

These rules are still broken,

這些規則仍然被打破，

but today,

但今天，

it's harder to do so without sparking opposition and disapproval. 片語搭配

想要這樣做而不引發反對和譴責變得更難了。

Also,

而且，

we have an international court for war crimes in the Hague, 文化背景

我們在海牙設立了國際戰犯法庭，

and that's a very recent innovation.

這本身就是一項非常近期的創新。

Four,

第四，

borders are mostly fixed now.

邊界現在基本固定了。

After World War II,

二戰後，

territorial wars generally stopped

領土戰爭基本停止了，

when most countries pledged to accept international borders

因為大多數國家都承諾接受國際邊界

and respect other nations' autonomy. 片語搭配

並尊重其他國家的自治權。

But is all of this just an anomaly,

但這一切都只是反常現象，

or are we on the road to lasting peace? 慣用語

還是我們正走在通往持久和平的道路上？

Truth is, 表達脈絡

事實是，

we don't know yet.

我們還不清楚。

We need a big enough sample to rule out the historical average, 講解

我們需要一個足夠大的樣本來排除歷史平均值，

which is about one or two big wars per century.

即每個世紀大約發生一到兩次大規模戰爭。

We just haven't had enough time since World War II

自二戰以來，我們還沒有經歷足夠長的時間

to rule out the possibility that war is not going away.

來排除戰爭並未遠去的可能性。

If we don't have one major war in the next 75 years, 文法

如果在未來75年內我們沒有爆發一場重大戰爭，

we can be really confident that humanity is changing.

我們就能真正確信人類正在改變。

So,

所以，

you see,

你看，

war might be over.

戰爭可能即將結束。

Yes,

沒錯，

there are nasty conflicts going on in many places,

許多地方仍然存在著惡劣的衝突，

but overall, things are getting better,

但總體而言，事情正在變得更好，

and we can make them even better by speaking up for peace and democracy. 片語動詞

而且我們可以通過為和平與民主發聲，讓事情變得更好。