人口過剩 —— 人類大爆發的奧秘：英語精讀講義

Never before in history have there been so many people on Earth as right now. 文法

歷史上地球上的人口從未像現在這麼多。

Our numbers have skyrocketed from 1 billion in 1800 to 2.3 billion in 1940, 片語搭配

我們的數量已從1800年的10億飆升至1940年的23億，

3.7 billion in 1970,

1970年的37億，

and 7.4 billion in 2016.

以及2016年的74億。

The world population increased fourfold in the last century. 用詞

上個世紀，世界人口增至四倍。

So, what can we expect for the next century?

那麼，下個世紀我們能預見什麼呢？

And what does population growth mean for our future?

人口增長對我們的未來意味著什麼？

Will there be mass migration,

會出現大規模移民嗎？

overcrowded slums and megacities covering continents,

擁擠的貧民窟和覆蓋整個大陸的巨型城市，

diseases and pollution,

疾病和污染，

chaos and violence over energy, water, and food,

為爭奪能源、水和食物而引發的混亂與暴力，

and a human species focused only on sustaining itself?

人類是否會淪為只為生存而掙扎的物種？

Will population growth destroy our way of life,

人口增長會摧毀我們的生活方式嗎，

or is this prophecy just ungrounded panic?

還是說這種預言只是毫無根據的恐慌？

In the 1960s, population growth reached an unprecedented rate,

在20世紀60年代，人口增長達到了史無前例的速度，

which led to apocalyptic prophecies.

這引發了世界末日般的預言。

The poor would procreate endlessly and overrun the developed world. 用詞

窮人將無休止地繁衍並淹沒發達世界。

The legend of overpopulation was born. 慣用語

人口過剩的傳說就此誕生。

But it turns out high birth rates and the population explosion 表達脈絡

但事實證明，高出生率和人口爆炸

are not permanent features of some cultures or countries, 文法

並非某些文化或國家的永久特徵，

but rather part of a four-step process the whole world is going through, 片語動詞

而是全世界正在經歷的四步過程的一部分，

the demographic transition. 文化背景

即「人口轉型」。

Most developed countries have already made the transition,

大多數發達國家已經完成了這一轉型，

while other countries are doing it right now.

而其他國家正處於轉型之中。

Let's go back to the 18th century, when the entire world, including Europe, 表達脈絡

讓我們回到18世紀，當時包括歐洲在內的整個世界，

was in the first stage of the demographic transition.

都處於人口轉型的第一階段。

By today's standards, Europe was worse off than a developing region, 片語搭配

按今天的標準來看，當時歐洲的情況比現在的發展中地區還要糟糕，

suffering from poor sanitation, poor diet, and poor medicine.

飽受衛生條件差、飲食不良和醫療匱乏之苦。

A lot of people were born, but lots of them died just as fast,

許多人出生，但也有許多人很快就死去了，

so the population hardly grew.

所以人口幾乎沒有增長。

Women had between four and six children,

婦女通常生育四到六個孩子，

but only two of them would reach adulthood.

但其中只有兩個能活到成年。

Then the Industrial Revolution happened in the UK 文化背景

後來，英國發生了工業革命，

and brought the greatest change in human living conditions since the Agricultural Revolution.

帶來了自農業革命以來人類生存條件的最大改變。

People went from being peasants to workers. 文法

人們從農民變成了工人。

Manufactured goods were mass produced and became widely available. 用詞

工業產品被大規模生產並廣泛普及。

The sciences flourished and advanced transportation, communication, and medicine.

科學蓬勃發展，推動了交通、通信和醫學的進步。

The role of women in society shifted and created the conditions for their emancipation. 片語搭配

婦女在社會中的角色發生了轉變，為她們的解放創造了條件。

Slowly, this economic progress not only formed a middle class, 文法

漸漸地，這種經濟進步不僅催生了中產階級，

but also raised standards of living and health care for the poor working population. 片語搭配

也提高了貧困勞動人口的生活水平和醫療保障。

The second transition stage started.

第二個轉型階段開始了。

Better food supplies, hygiene, and medicine meant people stopped dying all the time,

更好的食物供應、衛生條件和醫療手段意味著人們不再總是面臨死亡，

especially so at a very young age.

尤其是在幼年時期。

The result was a population explosion,

結果就是人口爆炸，

doubling the UK's population between 1750 and 1850. 文法

使英國的人口在1750年到1850年間翻了一番。

The main reason families used to have lots of children was that only a few of them were likely to survive. 文法

過去家庭生育很多孩子的主要原因是只有少數幾個能夠存活下來。

Now that had changed,

現在情況改變了，

so the third stage of the transition was set in motion. 慣用語

於是第三個轉型階段啟動了。

Fewer babies were conceived,

出生的嬰兒減少了，

and population growth slowed down.

人口增長也隨之放緩。

Eventually, a balance emerged.

最終，達到了一種平衡。

Fewer people were dying, and fewer children were born,

死亡人數減少，出生人數也減少，

so the death rate and birth rate became stable.

因此死亡率和出生率變得穩定。

Britain had reached the fourth stage of the demographic transition.

英國由此進入了人口轉型的第四階段。

This didn't only happen in the UK.

這不僅僅發生在英國。

More and more countries went through the four stages.

越來越多的國家經歷了這四個階段。

First, many births and many deaths due to bad living conditions. 表達脈絡

第一，生活條件差導致高出生率和高死亡率。

Second, better living conditions leading to fewer deaths and a population explosion.

第二，生活條件改善導致死亡率下降和人口爆炸。

Third, fewer deaths resulting in fewer births,

第三，死亡率下降促使出生率隨之下降，

and population growth came to an end.

人口增長趨於停止。

But if birth rates have dropped so much, 文法

但如果出生率已經下降了這麼多，

why is the population still growing so fast?

為什麼人口仍在如此快速地增長呢？

Well, the children born in the population explosion of the 70s and '80s are having kids themselves now,

這是因為在七八十年代人口爆炸時期出生的孩子現在正在生兒育女，

leading to a noticeable spike in overall population. 片語搭配

導致總人口出現了明顯的激增。

But they are having far fewer children on average than their parents. 文法

但他們平均生育的孩子比他們的父母少得多。

The average today is 2.5.

如今的平均生育率是2.5個。

It was five 40 years ago.

40年前是5個。

So, as this generation gets older and fertility declines further, 文法

因此，隨著這一代人變老以及生育率進一步下降，

the rate of population growth will keep on slowing.

人口增長率將繼續放緩。

This is true for every country.

對每個國家來說都是如此。

In the West, we tend to overlook progress in other regions of the world, 片語搭配

在西方，我們往往會忽視世界其他地區的進步，

but actually most of the world's countries have made it to the fourth stage.

但實際上，世界上大多數國家已經進入了第四階段。

Just look at Bangladesh.

就看看孟加拉吧。

In 1971, the average woman had seven kids,

1971年，該國婦女平均生育七個孩子，

but 25% of them would die before the age of five.

但其中25%會在五歲前夭折。

In 2015, the mortality rate was down to 3.8%, 片語搭配

到2015年，死亡率降至3.8%，

and women had only 2.2 kids on average.

婦女平均只生育2.2個孩子。

This is the rule, 表達脈絡

這是普遍規律，

not an exception.

而非特例。

We're not special,

我們並不特別，

we just had a head start. 慣用語

我們只是起步較早。

It took developed countries about 80 years to reduce fertility from more than six children to less than three. 文法

發達國家花了大約80年時間才將生育率從六個以上降至三個以下。

Others are catching up fast. 片語動詞

其他國家正在快速趕上。

Malaysia and South Africa did it in only 34 years.

馬來西亞和南非僅用了34年就做到了。

Bangladesh took just 20.

孟加拉只用了20年。

Iran managed it in 10 years.

伊朗更是只用了10年。

All these countries that are catching up didn't have to start from scratch, 慣用語

所有這些正在趕超的國家都不必從零開始，

and the more support they get, 文法

而且他們得到的支持越多，

the faster they catch up.

他們趕上的速度就越快。

This is why programs that help lower child mortality or help poor nations develop are so important. 講解

這就是為什麼旨在降低兒童死亡率或幫助貧困國家發展的計畫如此重要。

No matter what your motivation is, 文法

無論你的動機是什麼，

whether you dream of a world where all people live in freedom and wealth, 文法

無論你夢想著一個全人類都生活在自由與富裕中的世界，

or you just want fewer refugees coming to your country,

還是僅僅希望少一些難民湧入你的國家，

the simple truth is that it's beneficial to you personally if people on the other side of the globe can live a good life. 講解

一個簡單的事實是，如果地球另一端的人們能過上好日子，對你個人也是有益的。

And we are getting there. 慣用語

而且我們正在實現這一目標。

The percentage of people living in extreme poverty has never been as low as today. 文法

生活在極端貧困中的人口比例從未像今天這麼低。

So, the future of global population growth is actually not an apocalyptic prophecy at all. 表達脈絡

因此，全球人口增長的未來實際上根本不是末日預言。

It's a promise.

而是一個希望的承諾。

Population growth will come to an end.

人口增長必將走向終結。

The UN forecasts that the 12th billionth human will never be born at all.

聯合國預測，第120億個人類根本不會出生。

And as the development level of the world rises,

而隨著世界發展水平的提高，

the number of people with a higher education will increase tenfold. 用詞

接受過高等教育的人數將增加十倍。

Countries who used to be in need will help advance development instead. 片語搭配

過去需要幫助的國家反過來將幫助推動全球發展。

More people is going to mean more people able to advance our species. 文法

更多的人口將意味著有更多的人能夠推動我們物種的進步。

This video was a collaboration with Max Roser and Our World in Data,

本影片是與Max Roser和Our World in Data合作製作的，

where he explores the progress of humanity through research and data visualization.

在那裡，他透過研究和數據視覺化來探索人類的進步。

Make sure to check it out.

請一定要去看看。

In 2016, we were able to make more and better content than ever before because of your support on patreon.com. 文法

2016年，因為你們在patreon.com上的支持，我們得以製作出比以往更多、更好的內容。

Thank you so much,

非常感謝你們，

and we'll be back in the year 12,017.

我們將在12017年再見。