升息如何控制通貨膨脹？：英語精讀講義

When central banks raise interest rates,

當央行升息時，

it's big news.

往往是重大新聞。

The bank is judging that the only way they can try to pull down inflation 講解

央行判斷，他們試圖抑制通膨的唯一辦法

is to carry on raising interest rates. 片語動詞

就是繼續升息。

We're going to see rising rates,

我們將看到利率上升，

rising interest rates that will make the cost of borrowing go up. 片語搭配

利率上升會使借貸成本增加。

It can send ripples across the whole economy. 慣用語

它可能在整個經濟中引發連鎖反應。

It can sink consumer confidence, 片語搭配

它可能削弱消費者信心，

result in fewer jobs and lower wages,

導致就業減少和工資下降，

and cause stock prices to fall.

並導致股市下跌。

If they go too far too fast, 片語搭配

如果步伐過快過猛，

it can tip economies into recession. 片語搭配

可能會使經濟陷入衰退。

So, why do central banks raise interest rates?

那麼，為什麼央行要升息呢？

Let's start with the basics.

讓我們從基礎知識說起。

If you borrow money,

如果你借錢，

you'll have to pay back a little extra 片語動詞

你將需要多還一點，

to make it worthwhile for the lender. 片語搭配

以使貸款人覺得有利可圖。

Well, I think we can make you this loan.

嗯，我想我們可以把這筆貸款放給你。

You have a good reputation.

你的信譽很好。

We know you're reliable.

我們知道你很可靠。

I'm glad you think so.

很高興你這麼認為。

This is the interest rate.

這是利率。

So, if you are taking out a loan, 片語動詞

所以，如果你正在貸款，

you want the interest rate to be as low as possible, 文法

你希望利率越低越好，

so you don't have to pay that much back.

這樣你就不用還那麼多了。

On the flip side, if you want to save money, 表達脈絡

另一方面，如果你想存錢，

then a high interest rate means you can earn more on your savings. 片語搭配

那麼高利率意味著你的存款能獲得更多收益。

See it as a reward for leaving money in your account.

把它看作是把錢留在帳戶裡的獎勵。

But the size of your reward depends on the circumstances. 片語搭配

但是，獎勵的多寡取決於具體情況。

There's no single interest rate in the economy.

經濟中並不存在單一的利率。

You've got thousands of banks setting their own commercial rates. 用詞

有成千上萬家銀行在設定自己的商業利率。

That's all influenced though by the interest rate that the central bank sets.

但這都受到央行設定的利率的影響。

A central bank is like a bank for banks. 表達脈絡

央行就像是銀行的銀行。

Just like you and your savings account,

就像你和你的儲蓄帳戶一樣，

banks also earn interest when they leave money with the central bank.

銀行將錢存放在央行也能獲得利息。

Commercial banks have these things called reserves.

商業銀行有稱為「準備金」的東西。

So, that's a bit like their cash on hand. 片語搭配

所以，這有點像他們的手頭現金。

Commercial banks lend those excess reserves to each other at an interest rate, 片語搭配

商業銀行以一定的利率將這些超額準備金互相借貸，

and they also can deposit their excess reserves at the central bank.

他們也可以將超額準備金存入央行。

And when they do that, they can earn an interest rate.

當他們這樣做時，就可以賺取利息。

Ordinary people can't access the interest rate on the excess reserves,

普通人無法獲得超額準備金的利率，

but it still affects them.

但它仍然會影響到他們。

And that's the idea.

就是這麼個道理。

When central banks raise interest rates,

當央行升息時，

they're trying to control inflation.

他們正試圖控制通膨。

How fast prices rise for everyone.

也就是物價普遍上漲的速度。

They were £1.29,

原本是 1.29 英鎊，

now they're £1.39 on that in the space of 4 weeks.

短短 4 週內就漲到了 1.39 英鎊。

Central banks like the Fed or the Bank of England 文化背景

聯準會、英國央行等

or the European Central Bank are all trying to hit an inflation target of 2%. 片語搭配

或歐洲央行都在努力實現 2% 的通膨目標。

Interest rates are a really powerful tool that they have to do that.

利率是他們實現該目標的一個非常強而有力的工具。

If inflation is seen as too high, 文法

如果通膨被認為過高，

that's when banks raise interest rates.

銀行就會升息。

The change spreads through the financial system

這一變化會蔓延至整個金融系統，

and slows down the rate of inflation.

並減緩通膨率。

Here's how.

它是這樣起作用的：

A rise in interest rates from a central bank

央行提高利率

means that a commercial bank will earn more on their reserves.

意味著商業銀行在準備金上將獲得更多收益。

They might make more from keeping their money in a central bank

它們把錢存放在央行可能會比

than lending it out.

把錢貸出去賺得更多。

So, if they do lend it out,

因此，如果它們真的把錢貸出去，

they'll raise their interest rates to make it worth their while. 慣用語

它們就會提高利率，以確保有錢可賺。

How that affects consumers depends on the economy.

這對消費者的影響取決於經濟狀況。

Take mortgages. 表達脈絡

以抵押貸款為例。

In places like Finland or Australia,

在芬蘭或澳洲等地，

lots of people have mortgages with variable interest rates.

許多人的抵押貸款採用浮動利率。

If you've got a variable rate mortgage where the interest rate that you pay is linked to the central bank's interest rate, 用詞

如果你申請的是浮動利率抵押貸款，你支付的利率與央行利率掛鉤，

then higher interest rates mean that

那麼更高的利率意味著，

essentially immediately the higher rate will translate into less cash to spend on other things. 片語動詞

本質上，更高的利率會立即轉化為你用來消費的現金變少。

Less spare cash means households will spend less. 片語搭配

閒錢減少意味著家庭支出也會減少。

And less spending means businesses will be warier of raising prices. 用詞

支出減少意味著企業在提價時會更加謹慎。

This should lower inflation.

這應該會降低通膨。

In other countries like America or Canada,

在美國或加拿大等其他國家，

a bigger share of mortgages are set at fixed rates. 用詞

較大比例的抵押貸款是按固定利率設定的。

People with fixed rates are protected against the direct effects of an interest rate rise, 片語搭配

採用固定利率的人免受升息的直接影響，

but will still feel an indirect impact.

但仍會感受到間接影響。

Higher interest rates mean that mortgages will become more expensive.

較高的利率意味著抵押貸款的成本將變得更加高昂。

If that is affecting all new buyers,

如果這影響到所有的新購房者，

then house prices will begin to fall,

那麼房價將開始下跌，

and that will make everyone who owns a home feel poorer, 文法

這會讓每個擁有住房的人感到自己變窮了，

and therefore they might spend less.

因此他們可能會減少消費。

Lower spending will translate into lower inflation.

支出減少將轉化為較低的通膨。

And it's not just consumers who will tighten the purse strings. 慣用語

勒緊褲腰帶的不僅僅是消費者。

When interest rates rise,

當利率上升時，

then businesses will find it more expensive to borrow and invest. 文法

企業會發現借貸和投資的成本更高了。

That generally means less economic activity.

這通常意味著經濟活動減少。

It might mean fewer jobs are created.

這可能意味著創造的就業機會更少。

Fewer jobs and lower wages could mean less money for households,

就業機會減少和工資降低可能意味著家庭收入減少，

and consumer confidence might suffer, 片語搭配

消費者信心可能會受到打擊，

which also means less spending.

這同樣意味著支出減少。

People are grappling with a decline in real wages, 講解

人們正努力應對實質薪資的下降，

meaning their money buys less.

這意味著他們的錢購買力下降了。

When interest rates rise,

當利率上升時，

that will tend to slow down spending, investment,

往往會減緩支出、投資，

and generally depress economic activity. 用詞

並在總體上壓抑經濟活動。

Overall, that will make businesses more reluctant to raise their prices,

總而言之，這將使企業更不願提高價格，

and that will tend to pull back inflation.

這將有助於抑制通膨。

It sounds straightforward, right?

聽起來很簡單，對吧？

But the trick is judging how far to go. 表達脈絡

但關鍵在於判斷該升息到什麼程度。

In 1981, the Federal Reserve,

1981 年，聯準會，

America's central bank,

即美國的中央銀行，

allowed interest rates to rise to a whopping 19%. 用詞

允許利率飆升至驚人的 19%。

The move curbed inflation, 用詞

這一舉措抑制了通膨，

but it led to widespread economic pain.

但卻引發了廣泛的經濟陣痛。

I regret to say 語氣意圖

我很遺憾地說，

that we're in the worst economic mess since the Great Depression.

我們正處於自大蕭條以來最糟糕的經濟泥淖中。

It is very difficult to get inflation under control 片語搭配

想要控制通膨

without severely denting economic activity. 慣用語

而又不嚴重破壞經濟活動，這是非常困難的。

In America,

在美國，

it's been over 70 years since they've managed to get inflation down from over 5% 文法

他們成功地將超過 5% 的通膨率降下來

without causing a recession.

而未引發衰退，距今已有 70 多年了。

A little inflation is okay.

適度的通膨是沒問題的。

It keeps the economy moving at a sensible speed.

它能讓經濟以合理的速度運轉。

But inflation staying high for too long is a problem. 文法

但通膨持續高檔是一個問題。

Higher prices means employees will need higher wages,

物價上漲意味著員工需要更高的薪資，

pushing up costs for businesses.

這推高了企業的成本。

That could drive up prices further, 片語動詞

這可能會進一步推高價格，

potentially leading to an upward spiral of wages and prices. 慣用語

甚至可能導致薪資和物價螺旋式上升。

Retail inflation in India has surged to 7.8%.

印度零售通膨率飆升至 7.8%。

The combination of tepid economic activity and high inflation 用詞

經濟活動低迷加上高通膨的結合

poses serious challenges for the Indian economy going forward. 片語搭配

給未來印度經濟帶來了嚴峻挑戰。

Central bankers are really concerned about setting expectations of inflation. 用詞

央行官員們非常關注如何設定通膨預期。

The idea is that if it can show that it is credible,

其理念是，如果能夠證明它是可信的，

that it will always act to get inflation back down to 2%,

即它將始終採取行動使通膨率回落到 2%，

then maybe it won't have to, you know,

那麼它或許就不需要，你知道的，

raise interest rates and then lower them in this kind of seesaw fashion. 慣用語

像拉鋸一樣，一會升息，一會又降息。

Raising interest rates can slow an economy right down. 片語動詞

升息可能會讓經濟迅速放緩。

The trouble is, the brake pedal has a delay. 慣用語

問題是，這個「煞車踏板」有延遲。

It can take as long as 2 years 文法

可能需要長達 2 年的時間

to see the full results from interest rate changes.

才能看到利率變化帶來的全部效果。

Central banks know this.

央行知道這一點。

So, when they set interest rates,

所以，當他們設定利率時，

they're actually trying to read the road ahead. 慣用語

他們實際上是在試圖預測前方的道路。

But predicting the future isn't easy.

但預測未來並不容易。

The problem is, it's difficult for the central bank to work out 片語動詞

問題在於，央行很難弄清楚

whether the inflation will fall back on its own. 講解

通膨是否會自行回落。

And even when central banks do get it right, 文法

甚至當央行判斷準確時，

they might still cause a crash.

它們也可能引發崩盤。

It may be a blunt instrument, 慣用語

也許它是一把不夠精準的工具，

but raising interest rates is still central banks' main tool

但升息仍然是央行馴服通膨的

for taming inflation. 慣用語

主要手段。

Central bankers would say that yes,

央行官員們會說，是的，

raising interest rates can be painful.

升息可能是痛苦的。

Slowing down the economy is not fun.

讓經濟放緩並不好受。

But it's worth it.

但這是值得的。

It's worth it to get low and steady inflation, 文法

為了獲得低廉且穩定的通膨率，這是值得的。

so that in the long run, 片語搭配

這樣從長遠來看，

you don't have to think about it.

你就不必為此操心了。

Thank you for watching.

感謝觀看。

To read more of our coverage on interest rates, 用詞

要閱讀更多關於我們對利率的報導，

click the link.

請點擊連結。

And don't forget to subscribe.

請別忘了訂閱。