新冠疫情將如何改變全球金融秩序：英語精讀講義

America has dominated global finance since the end of the Second World War,

自第二次世界大戰結束以來，美國一直主導全球金融，

when the current system was built.

現行體系正是在當時建立。

Designed to establish the economic foundations of peace

這套體系旨在奠定和平的經濟基礎，

on the bedrock of genuine international cooperation. 慣用語

並以真正的國際合作為基石。

But the economic disaster caused by the coronavirus pandemic could signal a new chapter in financial history 慣用語

但新冠病毒大流行引發的經濟災難，可能預示金融史將翻開新篇章，

with America's leadership called into question. 片語搭配

美國的領導地位也因此受到質疑。

COVID-19 has shown that America is failing to sort out its own affairs at home, 片語動詞

新冠疫情顯示，美國連自己的內政都處理不好，

let alone provide global leadership. 表達脈絡

更別提發揮全球領導作用了。

$484 billion for loans after the first round of funding ran out. 片語動詞

第一輪資金用罄後，又有4,840億美元用於貸款。

Another huge spike in unemployment claims.

失業救濟申請人數再次大幅飆升。

With a vacuum emerging at the top of the financial order, 文法

隨著金融秩序頂層出現權力真空，

China is vying to compete for greater control.

中國正競逐更大的控制權。

This is not a case of China becoming Wall Street overnight. 表達脈絡

這並不是說中國能一夕之間變成華爾街。

The crisis has provided China with an opportunity to show what it's capable of doing, 片語搭配

這場危機給了中國展現自身能力的機會，

which in the long run will tip the balance of power. 講解

長遠來看，這將改變權力平衡。

In global finance,

在全球金融領域，

America is king.

美國是王者。

It controls the world's financial plumbing 慣用語

它掌控全球金融體系的管線，

and accounts for almost a quarter of the world economy. 片語動詞

經濟規模占全球近四分之一。

The dollar makes up most central bank reserves

美元占各國央行外匯存底的大部分，

and is the currency of international trade.

也是國際貿易使用的貨幣。

80% of global supply chains use dollars,

全球80%的供應鏈使用美元，

which gives America significant power.

這賦予美國相當大的權力。

Whoever controls the flows of money at the end of the day 慣用語

說到底，誰掌控資金流向，

controls a lot of things in the economy

誰就掌控經濟中的許多事務，

and ends up being the puppet master of a lot of things that go on around the world. 講解

最終還會成為操縱世界各地諸多事件的幕後推手。

China hopes to correct this imbalance.

中國希望矯正這種失衡。

There is a growing call from the international community

國際社會要求

for reforming the global economic governance system,

改革全球經濟治理體系的呼聲日益高漲，

which is a pressing task for us.

這也是我們面臨的一項迫切任務。

It already has the world's second largest economy.

中國已是世界第二大經濟體。

Its banks are enormous.

中國的銀行規模龐大。

The banking sector has been growing fairly steadily for the past 10 years, 文法

過去10年，中國銀行業一直相當穩定地成長，

while in America bank assets have remained relatively stable.

而美國的銀行資產則維持相對穩定。

And with European banks assets falling,

與此同時，歐洲銀行的資產持續下滑，

Chinese banks now have more assets than those in Europe or America.

如今，中國的銀行資產已超過歐洲或美國的銀行。

But most of their business is within China.

不過，這些銀行的大部分業務都在中國境內。

Chinese banks account for only 7% of cross-border lending.

中國的銀行只占跨境放款的7%。

So the banks' vast size hasn't translated into influence within the world's financial system, 片語搭配

因此，這些銀行的龐大規模尚未轉化成其在全球金融體系中的影響力，

yet.

至少目前還沒有。

Its banks are becoming more active overseas.

中國的銀行在海外正變得更加活躍。

They are lending to companies,

它們向企業提供貸款，

in particular Chinese companies that are globalizing.

尤其是正在全球化的中國企業。

China is also giving its own currency a more prominent role in commodities markets, 片語搭配

中國也在讓人民幣於大宗商品市場扮演更重要的角色，

It has convinced a few companies to use the currency.

並已說服少數企業使用人民幣。

Rio Tinto, which is one of the largest iron ore miners in the world,

全球最大鐵礦砂開採商之一力拓（Rio Tinto）

issued its first contracts in yuan last year.

去年首次簽訂以人民幣計價的合約。

The COVID-19 pandemic could increase China's financial influence.

新冠疫情可能會提升中國的金融影響力。

China is now sharing its experience with the rest of the world

中國如今正與世界其他地區分享自身經驗，

and providing much-needed supplies.

並提供各方迫切需要的物資。

30 tons of equipment to Italy,

向義大利運送30噸設備，

500,000 surgical masks to Spain.

向西班牙提供50萬個醫療口罩。

Following the outbreak in Wuhan,

武漢爆發疫情後，

China has positioned itself as a global leader, 片語搭配

中國將自己定位成全球領導者，

containing the outbreak, 表達脈絡

控制疫情，

agreeing to deals to suspend repayment of some of its loans,

同意達成協議，暫停償還部分貸款，

and charging ahead with vaccine development.

並全力推進疫苗研發。

The COVID crisis,

新冠危機

at least so far, 表達脈絡

至少截至目前，

has cast a negative shadow on the capacity for leadership of America. 慣用語

已給美國的領導能力蒙上一層陰影。

It did not try or even show interest in marshalling a global response to this crisis. 用詞

美國既沒有嘗試、甚至也沒表現出興趣去協調全球應對這場危機。

It's going to disappear one day.

總有一天，它會消失。

It's like a miracle.

就像奇蹟一樣。

It will disappear.

它會消失。

This could offer an opportunity for China

這可能為中國帶來機會，

because it's tried to fill the vacuum 慣用語

因為中國一直試圖填補

that America has left in terms of global leadership.

美國在全球領導力方面留下的真空。

China's tough response to the crisis

中國對這場危機採取的強硬應對措施，

and the growing size and depth of its financial markets

加上其金融市場的規模與深度不斷成長，

have helped convince investors it's a safe bet, 慣用語

讓投資人更相信中國是安全的投資標的，

even as COVID sent other markets crashing. 表達脈絡

即使新冠疫情導致其他市場崩跌。

While emerging markets saw the value of bonds plummet earlier this year, 文法

今年稍早，新興市場債券價值暴跌，

China's government bonds remained stable,

但中國公債仍維持穩定，

which is a good gauge of trust in a country's economy. 慣用語

這是衡量外界對一國經濟信任度的良好指標。

So China has the second biggest bond market in the world.

因此，中國擁有全球第二大債券市場。

COVID provided the first tests that this bond market could resist a crisis

新冠疫情首次檢驗了這個債券市場能否抵禦危機，

in a way that typically emerging market bonds don't.

而新興市場債券通常做不到這一點。

It shows investors trust China

這顯示投資人信任中國，

as an economy that they don't think it's going to collapse overnight.

認為中國經濟不會一夕之間崩潰。

As well as improving its reputation with international investors, 文法

除了改善在國際投資人心中的聲譽，

China hopes to increase its hold over how money moves around the world. 片語搭配

中國還希望加強掌控資金在全球流動的方式。

America has huge influence over the current system,

美國對現行體系擁有巨大影響力，

thanks to SWIFT, the world's largest network for transferring money. 文化背景

這要歸功於全球最大的資金轉帳網路SWIFT。

It's a messaging system that allows financial institutions to communicate.

它是一套讓金融機構彼此溝通的訊息系統。

It's meant to be geopolitically neutral. 文法

它理應在地緣政治上保持中立。

But because a majority of SWIFT transactions are in dollars

但由於SWIFT的大多數交易都以美元進行，

and these are routed through New York, 用詞

而且這些交易都經由紐約處理，

America has used the system to choke its adversaries. 慣用語

美國一直利用這套系統扼制對手。

Russia feared being excluded after its invasion of Crimea

俄羅斯入侵克里米亞後，曾擔心自己會被排除在外，

and some Iranian banks were blocked from using the system in 2018

2018年，一些伊朗銀行也被禁止使用這套系統，

to enforce US sanctions.

以執行美國制裁。

So SWIFT is uh based in Belgium,

所以，SWIFT的總部設在比利時，

so it's supposed to be neutral.

按理說應該保持中立。

However,

然而，

America has a strong influence over it.

美國對它有很大的影響力。

America can also threaten SWIFT with sanctions if SWIFT does not do what America wants.

如果SWIFT不按美國的意願行事，美國也可以用制裁威脅它。

This is very upsetting for its allies,

這讓美國的盟友非常不滿，

which would rather the system stays neutral

它們更希望這套系統維持中立，

and for the benefit of everyone.

並讓所有人都能受益。

For now,

目前，

China can't hope to challenge America's dominance of SWIFT. 片語搭配

中國還無法挑戰美國對SWIFT的主導地位。

Instead, Chinese companies are targeting a different part of the financial system,

因此，中國企業將目標轉向金融體系的另一個環節，

the way in which consumers spend their money.

也就是消費者花錢的方式。

Most consumer payments rely on American giants Visa and Mastercard.

大多數消費支付都仰賴美國巨頭Visa和Mastercard。

But Chinese tech companies have developed a series of apps that disrupt this system.

但中國科技公司開發出一系列顛覆這套系統的App。

Rather than using bank accounts or credit cards for transactions, 文法

消費者不再使用銀行帳戶或信用卡進行交易，

consumers load money into digital wallets.

而是把錢存入數位錢包。

Consumers can then do almost anything,

接著，消費者幾乎可以做任何事，

from paying parking fines to making investments or ordering taxis, 文法

從繳停車罰單，到投資或叫計程車，

without any of this money flowing through the banks, 文法

全程不必讓任何資金流經銀行，

creating a parallel financial ecosystem. 用詞

從而形成平行的金融生態系。

This is potentially very disruptive to the financial system.

這可能會對金融體系造成巨大衝擊。

It changes the way the money moves around the world.

它改變了資金在全球流動的方式。

It empowers a new set of companies

它賦予一批新公司更大的力量，

which are so big 文法

這些公司的規模如此龐大，

that even the Chinese government is scared of them.

甚至連中國政府都對它們心存忌憚。

Last year,

去年，

Chinese customers made mobile payments worth a total of $49 trillion. 片語搭配

中國消費者的行動支付總額達49兆美元。

And the two main Chinese companies offering this tech,

而提供這項技術的兩家主要中國企業，

Tencent and Ant Financial,

騰訊和螞蟻金服，

are enormous,

規模都很龐大，

with a billion users each.

各自擁有10億名使用者。

COVID-19 may increase their reach.

新冠疫情可能進一步擴大它們的影響範圍。

People are doing more shopping online,

人們更常在網路上購物，

trying to stay away from cash, 片語動詞

並盡量避免使用現金，

which is seen as a potential contaminant.

因為現金被視為潛在的污染源。

And this is all to the benefit of electronic payment firms. 片語搭配

這一切都讓電子支付業者受益。

Ant Financial and Tencent are already expanding overseas.

螞蟻金服和騰訊已開始向海外擴張。

Ant Financial's app,

螞蟻金服旗下的App

Alipay, is accepted in 56 countries and regions.

支付寶已可在56個國家與地區使用。

And other digital wallet firms are buying into their tech. 片語動詞

其他數位錢包業者也開始採用它們的技術。

Alipay's QR format has already been adopted by six European mobile wallets.

已有六個歐洲行動錢包採用支付寶的QR Code格式。

America has reasons to be worried about the Chinese giants.

美國有理由擔心這些中國巨頭。

They are getting bigger in the region

它們在這個地區的勢力日益壯大，

because they are investing their wallets in Southeast Asia and beyond.

因為它們正在東南亞及其他地區投資數位錢包業務。

And in effect, 表達脈絡

事實上，

it creates a system that is not reliant on American companies, 講解

這創造出一套不依賴美國企業、

American standards,

美國標準

American norms.

和美國規範的系統。

But China faces a major obstacle.

但中國面臨一項重大障礙。

Much of the world distrusts its intentions.

世界許多地方都不信任它的意圖。

China denying a cover-up.

中國否認曾掩蓋疫情。

The top Chinese officials kept it quiet.

中國高層官員封鎖了消息。

After all, 表達脈絡

畢竟，

Chinese leaders initially denied and covered up the spread of COVID-19. 片語動詞

中國領導階層一開始否認並掩蓋新冠疫情的傳播。

There's always a doubt about what is the ultimate objective 文法

人們始終懷疑，

that China is pursuing in being so collaborative at the present time.

中國此刻表現得如此合作，最終目的究竟是什麼。

It's not always transparent about the truth 片語搭配

中國對真相並不總是透明，

and what happens in its own country.

對國內發生的事情也是如此。

In a global financial system,

在全球金融體系中，

you need transparency.

透明度不可或缺。

You need to know the facts,

你需要了解事實，

what's going on,

知道正在發生什麼，

to make sure the system is in good health. 慣用語

才能確保體系健全運作。

As China's financial sphere of influence grows, 用詞

隨著中國的金融影響力範圍持續擴大，

it's unclear whether it will complement America's 文法

它究竟會與美國的影響力形成互補，

by creating more competition

藉由創造更多競爭，

or undermine the existing system.

還是會削弱現有體系，目前仍不清楚。

In the end,

最終，

what we could see is the fragmentation of the global financial system 表達脈絡

我們可能會看到全球金融體系分裂，

in an America-dominated sphere and a China-dominated sphere. 用詞

形成美國主導與中國主導的兩大陣營。

These two systems don't have to be mutually exclusive. 文法

這兩套體系不一定非得相互排斥。

They could actually collaborate with each other.

它們其實可以彼此合作。

If they do, 表達脈絡

如果它們願意合作，

great.

那當然很好。

If they don't,

如果不願意，

then it will be harder to move money around the world.

資金在全球流動就會變得更加困難。

It will be a costlier and more dangerous financial system

這將是一套成本更高、風險更大的金融體系，

and in the end most people will lose out. 片語動詞

最終，大多數人都會蒙受損失。

China may not become the dominant force in global finance anytime soon, 片語搭配

中國或許不會很快成為全球金融的主導力量，

but COVID-19 is helping to fast-track its progress. 用詞

但新冠疫情正幫助它加速前進。

And as the world recovers from the virus

隨著世界從疫情中復甦，

and economies begin to open up, 片語動詞

各國經濟開始重啟，

China will be well placed to make significant gains. 片語搭配

中國將占據有利位置，有望取得顯著進展。

Thanks for watching.

感謝收看。

I'm Matthieu Favas, finance correspondent at The Economist.

我是《經濟學人》財經記者Matthieu Favas。

And if you want to read more about how the COVID crisis is going to change the financial system,

如果你想進一步了解新冠危機將如何改變金融體系，

please click the link opposite.

請點選旁邊的連結。