人類文明正處於崩潰的邊緣嗎？：英語精讀講義

At its height, the Roman Empire was home to about 30% of the world's population. 片語搭配

在鼎盛時期，羅馬帝國的人口約佔世界總人口的30%。

And in many ways,

在許多方面，

it was the pinnacle of human advancement. 用詞

它是人類進步的頂峰。

Its citizens enjoyed the benefits of central heating,

其公民享受著中央供暖帶來的便利，

concrete, double glazing,

還有混凝土、雙層玻璃、

banking, international trade,

銀行業、國際貿易

and upward social mobility. 用詞

和向上流動的社會階層。

Rome became the first city in history with 1 million inhabitants

羅馬成為了歷史上第一個擁有100萬居民的城市，

and was a center of technological, legal, and economic progress.

也是技術、法律和經濟進步的中心。

An empire impossible to topple, 文法

一個不可能被推翻的帝國，

stable and rich, and powerful.

穩定、富裕且強大。

Until it wasn't anymore. 表達脈絡

直到它不再如此。

First slowly, then suddenly, 表達脈絡

起初是緩慢的，然後突然之間，

the most powerful civilization on Earth collapsed.

地球上最強大的文明崩潰了。

By civilization, 表達脈絡

說到文明，

we mean a complex society where labor is specialized and social classes emerge

我們指的是一個勞動力專業化、社會階級出現、

and which is ruled by institutions.

並由制度統治的複雜社會。

Civilizations share a dominant mutual language and culture

文明共享一種佔據主導地位的共同語言和文化，

and domesticate plants and animals to feed and sustain large cities

馴化動植物來餵養和維持大城市，

where they often construct impressive monuments.

在這些城市中，人們經常建造宏偉的紀念碑。

Civilization lets us become efficient on large scales,

文明讓我們能夠在大規模上保持高效，

collect vast amounts of knowledge,

收集海量的知識，

and put human ingenuity and the natural resources of the world to work. 片語搭配

並將人類的智慧與世界的自然資源投入使用。

Without civilization, 文法

如果沒有文明，

most people would never have been born,

大多數人根本就不會出生，

which makes it a bit concerning that collapse is the rule, 慣用語

這也讓人有點擔憂，因為崩潰才是常態，

not the exception.

而不是例外。

Virtually all civilizations end,

幾乎所有的文明都會終結，

on average, after 340 years.

平均來看，在340年之後。

Collapse is rarely nice for individuals.

崩潰對個人來說很少是件好事。

Their shared cultural identity is shattered as institutions lose the power to organize people.

隨著制度失去組織人民的能力，他們共同的文化認同感也會支離破碎。

Knowledge is lost,

知識流失，

living standards fall,

生活水準下降，

violence increases,

暴力增加，

and often the population declines.

並且通常伴隨著人口下降。

The civilization either completely disappears,

文明要麼完全消失，

is absorbed by stronger neighbors,

要麼被更強大的鄰國吞併，

or something new emerges,

要麼孕育出新的事物，

sometimes with more primitive technology than before.

有時其技術比以前更加原始。

If this is how it's been over the ages, 表達脈絡

如果古往今來都是如此，

what about us today?

那今天的我們呢？

Just as Europeans forgot how to build indoor plumbing and make cement, 文法

正如歐洲人曾忘記了如何建造室內管道和製造水泥，

will we lose our industrial technology,

我們會失去我們的工業技術，

and with that our greatest achievements

並隨之失去我們最偉大的成就嗎——

from $1 pizza to smartphones or laser eye surgery?

從1美元的披薩到智慧型手機，再到雷射眼科手術？

Will all this go away too?

所有這些也會消失嗎？

Today,

今天，

our cities stretch for thousands of square kilometers.

我們的城市綿延數千平方公里。

We travel the skies.

我們在天空中穿梭。

Our communication is instant.

我們的通訊是即時的。

Industrial agriculture with engineered high-yield plants,

透過改良的高產作物進行工業化農業生產，

efficient machinery,

加上高效的機械設備，

and high-potency fertilizer feeds billions of people.

以及高濃度肥料，養活了數十億人。

Modern medicine gives us the longest lifespan we've ever had,

現代醫學讓我們擁有了前所未有的長壽，

while industrial technology gives us an unprecedented level of comfort and abundance,

而工業技術給了我們空前程度的舒適與富足，

even though we haven't yet learned to attain them without destroying our ecosphere. 文法

儘管我們還沒有學會在不破壞生態圈的情況下獲得這些。

There are arguably still different civilizations around today 用詞

可以說今天依然存在著不同的文明，

that compete and coexist with each other,

它們相互競爭、共存，

but together they also form a singular global civilization.

但它們共同構成了一個單一的全球文明。

But this modern globalized civilization is even more vulnerable in some ways than past empires

但是，這種現代全球化文明在某些方面甚至比過去的帝國更加脆弱，

because we are much more deeply interconnected.

因為我們彼此之間的聯繫要緊密得多。

A collapse of the industrialized world

工業化世界的崩潰

literally means that the majority of people alive today

毫不誇張地說，意味著今天活著的大多數人

would perish,

將會喪命，

since without industrial agriculture, 文法

因為如果沒有工業化農業，

we would no longer be able to feed them.

我們將無法再養活他們。

And there's an even greater risk.

並且還有一個更大的風險。

What if a collapse were so deeply destructive 文法

如果崩潰的破壞性極大，

that we were unable to reindustrialize again?

導致我們無法再次實現工業化，那該怎麼辦？

What if it ruined our chances of enjoying a flourishing future 片語搭配

如果它毀了我們作為一個多行星物種

as a multi-planetary species?

享受繁榮未來的機會呢？

A global civilizational collapse could be an existential catastrophe,

全球文明的崩潰可能是一場關乎生死存亡的災難，

something that ruins not just the lives of everyone alive today,

它毀掉的不僅是今天所有活著的人的生活，

but all the future generations that could have come into being. 慣用語

還有所有本可以降生的未來子孫後代。

All the knowledge we might have discovered, 文法

我們本可以發現的所有知識，

the art we might have created,

我們本可以創造的藝術，

the joys we might have experienced,

我們本可以體驗到的快樂，

would be lost.

都將隨之消失。

So,

那麼，

how likely is all of this?

所有這一切發生的可能性有多大？

Let's start with some good news. 表達脈絡

讓我們先聽一些好消息。

While civilization collapses have happened regularly, 文法

儘管文明崩潰經常發生，

none have ever derailed the course of global civilization.

但沒有哪一次曾偏離過全球文明發展的軌道。

Rome collapsed,

羅馬崩潰了，

but the Aksumite Empire or the Teotihuacans

但阿克蘇姆帝國或特奧蒂瓦坎人，

and of course the Byzantine Empire carried on. 片語動詞

當然還有拜占庭帝國，延續了下來。

What about sudden population crashes?

那麼人口驟減呢？

So far, 表達脈絡

到目前為止，

we've not seen a catastrophe that has killed much more than 10% of the global population.

我們還沒有看到哪場災難造成了遠超全球人口10%的死亡。

No pandemic, 表達脈絡

沒有哪場大流行病，

no natural disaster,

沒有哪場自然災害，

no war.

也沒有哪場戰爭能做到。

The last clear example of a rapid global population decrease

上一個全球人口迅速減少的明確例子

was the Black Death,

是黑死病，

a pandemic of the bubonic plague in the 14th century

這是一種在14世紀爆發的腺鼠疫，

that spread across the Middle East and Europe

蔓延了整個中東和歐洲，

and killed a third of all Europeans and about 1/10th of the global population.

奪去了三分之一歐洲人和大約十分之一全球人口的生命。

If any event was going to cause the collapse of civilization, 文法

如果有什麼事件會導致文明崩潰的話，

that should have been it.

那應該就是它了。

But even the Black Death demonstrates humanity's resilience more than its fragility. 文法

但即使是黑死病也展現出了人類的韌性，而不是脆弱性。

While the old societies were massively disrupted in the short term, 片語搭配

雖然舊社會在短期內受到了巨大破壞，

the intense loss of human lives and suffering

但慘重的人命損失和苦難

did little to negatively impact European economic and technological development 片語搭配

在長遠來看

in the long run.

幾乎沒有對歐洲的經濟和技術發展產生負面影響。

Population size recovered within two centuries,

人口規模在兩個世紀內恢復，

and just two centuries later,

而就在兩個世紀之後，

the Industrial Revolution began.

工業革命開始了。

History is full of incredible recoveries from horrible tragedies.

歷史上充滿了從可怕悲劇中驚人恢復的例子。

Take the atomic bombing of Hiroshima during World War II. 表達脈絡

以二戰期間廣島的原子彈爆炸為例。

140,000 people were killed

14萬人喪生，

and 90% of the city was at least partially incinerated or reduced to rubble. 片語搭配

這座城市90%的地方至少部分被焚毀或化為廢墟。

But against all odds, 慣用語

但儘管困難重重，

they made a remarkable recovery. 片語搭配

他們還是取得了驚人的恢復。

Hiroshima's population recovered within a decade,

廣島的人口在十年內恢復，

and today it's a thriving city of 1.2 million people.

如今它是一個擁有120萬人口的繁華城市。

None of this made these horrible events any less horrible

這些並沒有讓這些可怕的事件

for those who lived through them. 片語動詞

對那些親歷者來說變得不那麼可怕。

But for us as a species,

但對我們這個物種來說，

these signs of resilience are good news.

這些復甦的跡象是好消息。

Why recovery is likely even in the worst case.

這就解釋了為什麼即使在最壞的情況下，恢復也是很有可能的。

One thing that's different from historic collapses 文法

現在與歷史上的崩潰不同的一點是，

is that humanity now has unprecedented destructive power.

人類現在擁有了前所未有的破壞力。

Today's nuclear arsenals are so powerful 文法

今天的核武庫如此強大，

that all-out global war 用詞

以至於全面爆發的全球戰爭

could cause a nuclear winter

可能會導致核冬天，

and billions of deaths.

並造成數十億人死亡。

Our knowledge of our own biology

我們對自身生物學的認識，

and how to manipulate it

以及如何對其進行干預的知識

is getting so advanced

變得如此先進，

that it's becoming possible to engineer viruses

以至於設計出像冠狀病毒一樣具有傳染性、

as contagious as the coronavirus 文法

像伊波拉病毒一樣致命的病毒

and as deadly as Ebola.

正成為可能。

Increasingly the risk of global pandemics

全球大流行病的風險

is much higher than in the past.

正日益變得比過去高得多。

So we may cause a collapse ourselves

因此我們可能會自己導致文明崩潰，

and it might be much worse

而且可能比大自然迄今為止

than the things nature has thrown at us so far. 片語動詞

帶給我們的災難要糟糕得多。

But if say 99% of the population died, 用詞

但是，假設99%的人口死亡，

would global civilization collapse forever?

全球文明會永遠崩潰嗎？

Could we recover from such a tragedy?

我們能從這樣的悲劇中恢復過來嗎？

We have some reasons to be optimistic.

我們有一些保持樂觀的理由。

Let's start with food.

我們先從食物說起。

There are 1 billion agricultural workers today,

今天有10億農業工作者，

so even if the global population fell to just 80 million,

所以即使全球人口降到只有8000萬，

it's virtually guaranteed

幾乎可以保證

that many survivors

許多倖存者

would know how to produce food.

也會知道如何生產食物。

And we don't need to start at square one 慣用語

我們不需要從頭開始，

because we could still use modern high-yield crops.

因為我們仍然可以使用現代的高產農作物。

Maize is 10 times bigger than its wild ancestor. 文法

玉米比它的野生祖先大10倍。

Ancient tomatoes were the size of today's peas.

古代的番茄只有今天的豌豆那麼大。

After agriculture,

在農業之後，

the next step towards recovery 表達脈絡

恢復的下一步

would be rebuilding industrial capacity

將是重建工業產能，

like power grids and automated manufacturing.

比如電網和自動化製造。

A huge problem

一個巨大的問題

is that our economies of scale 用詞

是我們的規模經濟

make it impossible to just pick up where we left off. 慣用語

使得我們不可能簡單地從中斷的地方重新開始。

Many of our high-tech industries

我們的許多高科技產業

are only functional because of huge demand 文法

只有在跨越不同大陸的

and intensely interconnected supply chains

巨大需求和高度互聯的供應鏈下

across different continents.

才能運轉。

Even if our infrastructure were left unharmed, 文法

即使我們的基礎設施完好無損，

we would make huge steps backwards technologically. 慣用語

我們在技術上也會大幅倒退。

But then again, 表達脈絡

但話又說回來，

we are thinking in larger timeframes.

我們在用更長的時間尺度來思考。

Industrialization originally happened

最初的工業化

12,000 years after the Agricultural Revolution.

發生在農業革命之後的1.2萬年。

So if we need to start over 片語動詞

因此如果我們需要

after a massive collapse,

在大規模崩潰後重新開始，

it shouldn't be that hard to reindustrialize 文法

重新工業化應該不會那麼困難，

at least on evolutionary timescales.

至少在進化的時間尺度上是這樣。

There's a hitch, 表達脈絡

不過，

though.

有一個小障礙。

The Industrial Revolution was fueled literally

工業革命毫不誇張地說是由

by burning easily accessible coal,

燃燒容易開採的煤炭所推動的，

and we are still very much reliant on it. 片語搭配

而我們現在仍然非常依賴它。

If we use it all up today, 片語動詞

如果我們今天把它全部用完，

aside from making rapid climate change much worse, 文法

除了使急劇的氣候變遷變得更糟之外，

we could hinder our ability to recover 片語搭配

還可能會阻礙我們

from a huge crisis.

從巨大危機中恢復的能力。

So we should stop using easy to access coal

所以我們應該停止使用易於開採的煤炭，

so it can serve as a civilization insurance 慣用語

以便它能作為文明的保險，

in case something bad happens. 文法

以防發生什麼不好的事情。

Another thing that makes recovery likely 文法

另一個使恢復成為可能的原因

is that we'd probably have most of the information

是我們很可能掌握了

we need to rebuild civilization.

重建文明所需的大部分資訊。

We would certainly lose a lot of crucial institutional knowledge, 用詞

我們肯定會失去許多關鍵的機構知識，

especially on hard drives

尤其是那些存在硬碟上，

that nobody could read or operate anymore.

再也沒有人能夠讀取或操作的知識。

But a lot of the technological, scientific, and cultural knowledge

但是儲存在全球260萬個圖書館中的

stored in the world's 2.6 million libraries

大量技術、科學和文化知識

would survive the catastrophe.

將在災難中留存下來。

The post-collapse survivors

崩潰後的倖存者

would know what used to be possible 文法

將會知道過去曾有哪些可能，

and they could reverse-engineer 用詞

他們可以對

some of the tools and machines

找到的一些工具和機器

they'd find.

進行逆向工程。

In conclusion,

總之，

despite the bleak prospect of catastrophic threats, 文法

儘管無論是自然還是我們自己造成的

natural or created by ourselves,

災難性威脅的前景黯淡，

there is reason for optimism.

但我們仍有理由感到樂觀。

Humankind is remarkably resilient,

人類具有非凡的韌性，

and even in the case of a global civilizational collapse, 片語搭配

即使發生全球文明崩潰，

it seems likely that we would be able to recover, 文法

我們似乎也有可能恢復過來，

even if many people were to perish 文法

即使許多人可能會喪命

or suffer immense hardship.

或遭受巨大的苦難。

Even if we lost cultural and technological achievements

即使我們在這一過程中

in the process. 片語搭配

失去了文化和技術成就。

But given the stakes, 表達脈絡

但考慮到利害關係，

the risks are still unnervingly high.

風險依然高得令人不安。

Nuclear war and dangerous pandemics

核戰爭和危險的流行病

threaten the amazing global civilization

威脅著我們建立的

we have built.

令人驚嘆的全球文明。

Humanity is like a teenager, 慣用語

人類就像一個青少年，

speeding around blind corners,

在盲區彎道超速行駛，

drunk,

醉酒，

without a seatbelt.

且沒有繫安全帶。

The good news is that it's still early enough 文法

好消息是現在要防範和減輕這些風險

to prepare for and to mitigate these risks. 片語搭配

還為時不晚。

We just need to actually do it.

我們只需付諸行動。