2020年選舉：民主黨能贏得參議院嗎？：英語精讀講義

Who's going to win America's election?

誰將贏得美國大選？

Today was the day of a thousand polls.

今天是湧現出無數民調的一天。

It's a question everyone is trying to answer.

這是一個每個人都試圖回答的問題。

Joe Biden up over President Trump. 用詞

喬·拜登領先於川普總統。

Donald Trump is within the margin of error. 用詞

唐納·川普在誤差範圍內。

Most of the focus is on the presidency,

大部分的焦點都在總統大選上，

but there's another crucial race.

但還有另一場至關重要的選舉。

With Democrats and Republicans battling for control of the Senate in 2020.

隨著民主黨和共和黨在2020年爭奪參議院的控制權。

The Democrats hope this is their chance to win back the Senate.

民主黨人希望這是他們贏回參議院的機會。

After five years,

五年之後，

the Democrats are in with a shot of taking back America's Senate. 慣用語

民主黨人有望奪回美國的參議院。

But with 35 individual races to follow,

但由於有35場各自獨立的選舉需要關注，

the result is harder to predict than the presidency.

其結果比總統大選更難預測。

So, how do you work out who will win?

那麼，你如何算出誰會贏呢？

The Economist might have the answer.

《經濟學人》可能會有答案。

Control of Congress can make or break a presidency, 慣用語

對國會的控制權可以成就或毀掉一屆總統任期，

especially one intent on delivering change. 文法

特別是一位致力於帶來變革的總統。

If you just look at the presidency of Barack Obama,

如果你只看巴拉克·歐巴馬的總統任期，

he passed a bunch of major legislation during the first two years of his term.

他在任期的頭兩年通過了一系列重大立法。

The healthcare reform,

醫療改革，

also the financial reform.

還有金融改革。

And then once the Republicans won the House in 2010, 文化背景

然後一旦共和黨在2010年贏得了眾議院，

that was that. 慣用語

一切就到此為止了。

No more legislative achievements for six years.

在接下來的六年裡再也沒有任何立法上的成就。

Mitch McConnell,

米奇·麥康諾，

the Senate Majority Leader at the end of Barack Obama's time in office, 文化背景

這位巴拉克·歐巴馬執政末期的參議院多數黨領袖，

saw blocking democratic motions as part and parcel of his job. 慣用語

把阻撓民主黨的動議視為他份內的工作。

I was in charge of what we did the last two years of the Obama administration.

我負責了我們在歐巴馬政府最後兩年的工作。

I give you full credit for that.

我將這完全歸功於您。

There is no doubt in my mind that if Joe Biden wins the presidency, 片語搭配

在我看來，毫無疑問，如果喬·拜登贏得總統大選，

Mitch McConnell will respond to his nominees and legislative initiatives exactly the way he did to Barack Obama,

米奇·麥康諾對他提名的候選人和立法倡議的反應，將與他對巴拉克·歐巴馬的反應完全一樣，

which is to block everything that he possibly can.

也就是盡可能地阻撓一切。

There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in November. 慣用語

11月將有35個參議院席位供爭奪。

The Republicans are defending 23 seats,

共和黨正在捍衛23個席位，

the Democrats 12.

民主黨12個。

To take control,

為了奪取控制權，

the Democrats will need to gain at least four.

民主黨將需要至少增加四個席位。

Three if Biden wins the presidency,

如果拜登贏得總統選舉，則需要增加三個，

as the Vice President decides on tied votes. 文化背景

因為在票數平手時將由副總統決定。

But trying to predict the result is not an easy task.

但試圖預測結果並非易事。

There's so many different races with so many different candidates and so many different polls.

有這麼多不同的選舉，這麼多不同的候選人，以及這麼多不同的民意調查。

I mean,

我的意思是，

there's just no way that one person could keep track of it all in their head. 片語動詞

一個人根本無法在腦海中追蹤這一切。

And fortunately,

幸運的是，

we have computers to do that for us.

我們有電腦來替我們做這件事。

Earlier this year,

今年早些時候，

Dan began work on creating a model to predict the result of the Senate vote.

丹開始著手建立一個模型來預測參議院選舉的結果。

It was probably a good three months of non-stop work including nights and weekends this July,

這大概是整整三個月不間斷的工作，包括今年7月的夜晚和週末，

August, September.

以及8月、9月。

It's about as big as a project as anything I've ever done.

這大概是我做過的最大的一個專案。

All of that work for one crucial number,

所有這些工作都是為了一個關鍵數字，

the percentage chance of a victory.

即獲勝的機率。

As of October 6th,

截至10月6日，

our model gave the Democrats a 71% chance of winning the Senate.

我們的模型顯示民主黨有71%的機會贏得參議院。

If you click on the link above,

如果你點擊上面的連結，

it'll take you to the most up-to-date forecast.

它會帶你去看最新的預測。

But why trust this number more than the polls?

但是為什麼要比民調更相信這個數字呢？

The Economist's model takes in two sources of information to produce its predictions. 片語動詞

《經濟學人》的模型吸收了兩個資訊來源來進行預測。

The first is those polls.

第一個是這些民意調查。

You can get quite accurate predictions of how legislative elections are going to go 用詞

你可以對立法選舉的走向做出相當準確的預測，

using polls when you have a lot of quality polls taken really close to an election.

只要你在非常接近選舉的時候有大量高品質的民調。

The problem is the quality and quantity of polls for Senate races vary widely state by state.

問題是，參議院選舉的民調品質和數量因州而異，差異很大。

And every race counts.

並且每一場競選都至關重要。

That leaves you very, very in the dark in races that don't have much or any polling. 慣用語

這會讓你在那些沒有太多或根本沒有民調的競選中非常、非常盲目。

So, the model also looks at a range of historical factors.

因此，該模型還考慮了一系列歷史因素。

Things like a state's voting history,

比如一個州的投票歷史，

whether a candidate is the incumbent, 用詞

候選人是否是現任，

their political experience,

他們的政治經驗，

or how much money they've raised.

或者他們籌集了多少資金。

Political science nerds call these factors fundamentals. 用詞

政治學書呆子們把這些因素稱為基本面。

You can produce predictions of results in these races based on all of those sort of benchmark

你可以基於所有這些所謂的基準、

quote-unquote fundamental factors without seeing a single poll. 用詞

打著引號的「基本面」因素來預測這些選舉的結果，而無需看任何一項民意調查。

But first,

但首先，

the model has to estimate the impact each of those factors is likely to have on the result.

模型必須評估這些因素中每一個可能對結果產生的影響。

To work that out, 片語動詞

為了計算出這一點，

it is tested on an election for which we already know the result.

它在一次我們已經知道結果的選舉上進行了測試。

You say,

你會說，

"Okay, let's give our model the data from every election year except for say 1976.

「好吧，讓我們把除比如1976年以外的所有選舉年份的數據輸入模型。

And based on everything we knew from every year but 1976,

並且基於除了1976年之外的所有年份我們所知道的一切，

what would we have predicted for 1976?" 文法

我們會對1976年做出什麼預測？」

It does terribly.

它的表現非常糟糕。

You say, "Oops,

你會說，「哎呀，

that was overfit. 用詞

那是過度擬合了。

What were the least useful variables in here,

這裡面最沒用的變數是什麼，

the ones we could most afford to do without? 片語動詞

我們最能承受去掉哪些？

And let's get rid of them." 片語動詞

那就把它們去掉吧。」

And then even the really strong variables,

甚至對於那些非常強的變數，

let's maybe trim their effect size by like 10% or something because you just never know.

我們也許可以把它們的效應大小削減個10%左右，因為你永遠無法確定。

And you basically have the computer just try a zillion of these permutations

你基本上就是讓電腦去嘗試無數種排列組合，

until it finds the amount of shrinkage that yields the best predictions on the unseen data. 用詞

直到它找到能對未見數據產生最佳預測的收縮量。

Why go to all this trouble? 片語搭配

為什麼要費這麼大勁？

Because projections that combine polling data with fundamental factors

因為將民調數據與基本面因素結合起來的預測，

tend to be much more stable than those looking at polling alone. 文法

往往比僅僅看民調數據的預測要穩定得多。

Take the 1992 election, 表達脈絡

看看1992年的選舉，

where George H.W. Bush lost the presidency to Bill Clinton.

喬治·H·W·布希在總統大選中敗給了比爾·柯林頓。

This line marks his eventual share of the vote.

這條線標誌著他最終的得票率。

But in the months before the election,

但在選舉前的幾個月裡，

you'd have been hard pressed to foresee that. 慣用語

你很難預見到這一點。

The polls were all over the place. 慣用語

民意調查亂七八糟。

The Economist model would have been within the margin of error throughout that election year.

而《經濟學人》的模型在整個選舉年都會保持在誤差範圍內。

So much for elections that have long since been decided. 表達脈絡

早就塵埃落定的選舉就說這麼多。

What about the 2020 Senate race?

那麼2020年的參議院選舉呢？

Here's an example of how we rate the chances that a Republican senator like Susan Collins from Maine

這裡有一個例子，展示了我們如何評估像來自緬因州的蘇珊·柯林斯這樣的共和黨參議員，

will retain her seat.

能夠保住席位的機會。

Collins won the 2014 election for her Senate seat by a landslide, 慣用語

柯林斯在2014年以壓倒性優勢贏得了參議院席位的選舉，

suggesting it's more likely she would be voted in again.

這表明她再次當選的可能性更大。

She also has the advantage of incumbency,

她也有作為現任的優勢，

something particularly important in Maine.

這在緬因州尤其重要。

But the Democratic candidate Sara Gideon has raised more money in fundraising.

但是民主黨候選人莎拉·吉迪恩籌集了更多的資金。

Based on these and other fundamentals,

基於這些以及其他基本面因素，

the model had Collins eight points ahead.

該模型顯示柯林斯領先八個百分點。

But that's not the end of the story. 慣用語

但這還不是故事的結局。

And then each time a poll comes in,

之後，每當有一項民調發布，

you update your prediction.

你就要更新你的預測。

It will move incrementally in the direction of whatever the new poll you're adding says.

它將朝著你添加的新民調所顯示的方向增量移動。

There have been a number of high-quality polls in Maine,

緬因州進行了一些高品質的民意調查，

the kind of poll our model weighs heavily.

也就是我們的模型會賦予高權重的民調。

With those factored in, 片語動詞

把這些因素考慮進去，

the forecast swings in favor of her Democratic challenger. 片語搭配

預測便轉為對她的民主黨挑戰者有利。

So, which other races should you keep an eye on? 慣用語

那麼，你還應該關注哪些選舉呢？

According to The Economist's model,

根據《經濟學人》的模型，

Alabama is very likely to switch from Democrat to Republican.

阿拉巴馬州極有可能從民主黨轉為共和黨。

Whilst Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina,

而亞利桑那州、科羅拉多州和北卡羅萊納州，

like Maine, have a good chance of flipping the other way. 用詞

像緬因州一樣，有很大機會向相反方向翻盤。

If Biden wins the presidency,

如果拜登贏得總統大選，

this map would give the Democrats their Senate majority.

這張地圖將使民主黨獲得參議院多數席位。

Of course,

當然，

there's another challenge in predicting the results of these or any other race in the 2020 election,

預測2020年大選中這些或任何其他選舉的結果還面臨另一個挑戰，

however good the model. 文法

無論模型有多好。

While in a pandemic,

處在疫情之中，

votes cast by mail are expected to set a new record this November. 講解

今年11月透過郵寄投票的數量預計將創下新紀錄。

While the experts say voting by mail is safe,

雖然專家說郵寄投票是安全的，

it's yet another example of how it's complicated and it could be even more challenging come November. 用詞

但這也是表明情況如何複雜，以及到了11月可能更具挑戰性的又一個例子。

My model does not make any explicit adjustments for the fact that this election is occurring during the COVID pandemic.

我的模型沒有就這次選舉發生在新冠疫情期間這一事實做出任何明確的調整。

I think COVID is a huge deal.

我認為新冠疫情是一件非常大的事。

It's obviously killed a huge amount of people.

它顯然奪去了許多人的生命。

And of course,

當然，

it will cause changes in the way we vote that could indeed have significant unexpected uh you know,

它將導致我們投票方式的變化，這可能確實會產生重大的、意想不到的，呃，你知道，

unmodelable effects.

無法進行模型化的影響。

But uh I'll need to see the evidence.

但是，呃，我需要看到證據。

Without that evidence,

沒有這些證據，

predicting how the pandemic's going to affect this election would call for forces far beyond science. 講解

預測疫情將如何影響這次選舉，就需要遠遠超出科學的力量。

I'm Dan Rosenheck,

我是丹·羅森赫克，

The Economist's data editor.

《經濟學人》的數據編輯。

You can keep up to date on all of our election coverage by clicking on the link opposite.

你可以透過點擊對面的連結，獲取我們所有選舉報導的最新資訊。

Thank you for watching.

感謝您的收看。