新冠疫情：為何經濟狀況可能比你想像的更糟：英語精讀講義

China is bouncing back from the effects of coronavirus 片語動詞

中國正在從新冠疫情的影響中恢復，

and the world is watching to see what they can expect from life after lockdown.

全世界都在密切關注，想知道解除封鎖後的生活會是什麼樣子。

China's economy is now functioning at around 90% of normal levels.

中國的經濟目前正以約90%的正常水準運作。

90% is an incredible achievement,

90%是一個令人難以置信的成就，

but in practice it will feel very, very strange. 片語搭配

但在實際生活中，這會讓人感覺非常、非常陌生。

A 90% economy may not sound too bad,

90%的經濟聽起來可能還不算太糟，

but for many it could be catastrophic.

但對許多人來說，這可能是災難性的。

some of the worst unemployment numbers in this country's history.

這是這個國家歷史上最糟的失業數據之一。

6.6 million plus people laid off in a single week. 片語動詞

僅僅一週內就有超過660萬人被解雇。

It wouldn't be that surprising if um we think we're kind of through the worst of it, 慣用語

如果我們認為最壞的時期大概已經過去，那也不會令人太驚訝，

we end the lockdown and then actually then things start to get even worse.

我們結束了封鎖，但實際上情況卻開始變得更糟。

As global lockdowns ease,

隨著全球封鎖措施的放寬，

the economy faces the greatest challenge in living memory. 片語搭配

經濟正面臨著人們記憶中最巨大的挑戰。

Here's what you need to know. 表達脈絡

以下是您需要了解的資訊。

In China, factories are up and running, 慣用語

在中國，工廠已經復工運作，

classrooms are full,

教室裡坐滿了人，

restaurants are open,

餐廳也恢復營業，

but the economy has not returned to normal.

但經濟並沒有恢復正常。

In fact, it's operating at around 90% of usual levels.

事實上，它目前僅以平時大約90%的水準在運作。

And as lockdowns ease elsewhere,

隨著其他地區也逐漸解除封鎖，

this 90% economy could be what the rest of the world has to look forward to. 片語動詞

這種90%的經濟可能就是世界其他國家需要面對的未來。

Regardless of how countries have dealt with the pandemic, 文法

即使各國應對這場疫情的方式不盡相同，

it's becoming clear that once businesses have to operate with social distancing in place, 片語搭配

越來越明顯的一點是，一旦企業必須在保持社交距離的前提下營運，

the economy can be expected to shrink by about 10% 文法

經濟預計就會萎縮約10%，

whether that's in South Korea, America, or Sweden.

無論是在韓國、美國還是瑞典。

But the missing 10% will mean life will feel far from normal. 片語搭配

但這缺失的10%將意味著生活感覺遠非正常。

In China, large chunks of everyday life are missing.

在中國，日常生活的很大一部分已經消失了。

Having collapsed in January, 文法

在一月份經歷了斷崖式下跌之後，

consumer footfall has recovered to about half its previous levels. 用詞

消費者的客流量已經恢復到以前水準的一半左右。

Hotel occupancy is still down by around 50% and 75% fewer people are flying. 片語搭配

飯店住房率仍然下降了約50%，搭乘飛機的人數減少了75%。

What's mainly in the missing 10% is stuff that um is hard to do if you're trying to social distance.

這缺失的10%主要包含的是那些在保持社交距離時很難做到的事情。

So things like restaurants and hotels, theaters, cinemas,

像是餐廳、飯店、劇院、電影院等，

and crucially it's also the way in which people tend to have fun. 文法

關鍵是，這也是人們通常用於娛樂的方式。

So it's a world where you work and then as soon as the day is over you immediately get back to your house as fast as possible. 文法

所以在這個世界裡，您上完班，一天結束後，您會立刻盡快趕回家。

This dip in so-called fun spending will continue even after lockdowns are relaxed. 用詞

即使在封鎖放寬後，這種所謂「娛樂消費」的下降仍將持續。

In Sweden, most people were never asked to stay at home during the pandemic,

在瑞典，大多數人在疫情期間從未被要求待在家裡，

but Swedish spending patterns over the past few months have mirrored those in neighboring Denmark, which has been under lockdown.

但瑞典在過去幾個月的消費模式卻與實施了封鎖的鄰國丹麥相似。

Daily restaurant turnover fell by 70% last month as uncertainty over the economy and fear of infection meant fewer Swedes ate out. 講解

由於對經濟的不確定性和對感染的恐懼導致外出用膳的瑞典人減少，上個月餐廳的日營業額下降了70%。

And while overall Danish spending fell by 29% during lockdown,

雖然丹麥在封鎖期間的整體支出下降了29%，

Swedes cut their spending by almost as much. 片語搭配

但瑞典人的支出削減幅度也幾乎一樣大。

What the evidence suggests now is that actually 文法

現在的證據顯示，實際上

it's people's own voluntary decisions about how they behave which are shaping

影響經濟的更多是人們對於自身行為的自願決定，

economies actually more than what the government is telling people to do.

而不是政府告訴人們該怎麼做。

The lockdown itself is not really influencing behavior that much.

封鎖本身並沒有對行為產生那麼大的影響。

The true economic impact of imposing lockdowns will take time to emerge. 片語搭配

實施封鎖的真正經濟衝擊需要時間才會顯現出來。

In China, it was several months after the lockdown began to be lifted before bankruptcy numbers started to rise. 文法

在中國，在開始解除封鎖幾個月後，破產數量才開始上升。

It wouldn't be that surprising if um we think we're kind of through the worst of it,

如果我們認為最壞的時期大概已經過去，那也不會令人太驚訝，

we end the lockdown and then actually then things start to get even worse than we had expected. 文法

我們結束了封鎖，但實際上情況卻開始變得比我們預期的還要糟。

For the past few months,

在過去的幾個月裡，

the global economy has been propped up by unprecedented levels of state aid. 片語動詞

全球經濟一直依靠史無前例的國家援助來支撐。

In Europe's five largest economies,

在歐洲的五大經濟體中，

one in five workers is currently in a special scheme where the state pays their wages. 文法

目前有五分之一的勞工處於由國家支付工資的特殊計畫中。

The government has deployed 750 billion Euros to sustain companies. 用詞

政府已經挹注了7500億歐元來維持企業生存。

That's unprecedented.

這是前所未有的。

The government is going to step in and help to pay people's wages. 片語動詞

政府將介入並幫助支付人們的工資。

It's only as this support is gradually withdrawn that the wider cost of COVID-19 will become clear. 文法

只有當這些支持逐漸撤銷時，COVID-19引發的更廣泛代價才會變得清晰。

It will feel quite sort of uncertain 語氣意圖

會讓人感覺相當不確定，

because you know no one really knows how businesses and households are going to be able to survive weeks and months of much lower incomes.

因為您知道，沒人真正清楚企業和家庭將如何在收入大幅減少的數週和數月中生存下來。

It will impact all levels of the economy.

它將影響經濟的所有層面。

Let's take a look at one scenario. 表達脈絡

讓我們來看一個假設情境。

A small business owner runs a chain of restaurants. 片語搭配

一位小企業主經營著一家連鎖餐廳。

When the pandemic hits, he takes out a loan and furloughs his staff. 講解

疫情來襲時，他申請了貸款並讓員工放無薪假。

He's not alone.

他並不是唯一這樣做的人。

In March, more cash was handed out to UK businesses than in any month since records began. 講解

三月份，發放給英國企業的現金比有紀錄以來的任何一個月都多。

After lockdown, he reopen, but business is slow, so he makes staff redundant and closes a restaurant as he can't pay the rent. 用詞

解除封鎖後，他重新開業，但生意慘淡，於是他資遣了員工，並因為繳不出房租而關閉了一家餐廳。

This has already been happening.

這種情況已經發生過了。

In the first quarter of the year,

在今年的第一季，

the share of commercial tenants who paid their rent on time in Britain fell from 90% to 60% 文法

英國按時繳納租金的商業租戶比例從90%下降到了60%，

with big firms like Burger King admitting they couldn't make rent on empty restaurants. 片語搭配

像漢堡王這樣的大公司也承認，他們無法為沒有客人的餐廳繳納租金。

Without these rent payments, his landlord can no longer keep up with her mortgage 片語動詞

沒有了這些租金收入，他的房東再也無法償還她的房貸，

and ultimately her bank is left with debt that cannot be repaid.

最終她的銀行就無法收回貸款。

The problem with all of these losses across the economy is that someone eventually has to sort of admit that they are going to bear these losses and the consequences of that for business confidence and for investment could be very significant. 片語搭配

整個經濟中出現所有這些損失的問題在於，最終得有人站出來承認他們將承擔這些損失，而這對商業信心和投資的後果可能是非常重大的。

If you are concerned that your customers or your tenants or whoever is not going to actually be paying the money they owe you,

如果您擔心您的客戶、租戶或任何人實際上不會償還他們欠您的錢，

then making new investments is not just um risky,

那麼進行新的投資不僅有風險，

it's actually completely impossible to price because everything is so unstable. 用詞

實際上根本無法定價，因為一切都太不穩定了。

And so the risk of that is that things like investment get cut back massively and that will you know that will have very large effects. 片語動詞

因此，這帶來的風險是像投資這樣的事情會被大規模削減，而這將產生非常巨大的影響。

Key economic factors already indicate that the world is facing a prolonged recession. 片語搭配

關鍵的經濟因素已經表明，世界正面臨一場長期的衰退。

Already unemployment in America is at its highest rate since the Great Depression. 文法

美國的失業率已經處於自經濟大恐慌以來的最高水準。

But these losses will not be felt equally. 表達脈絡

但這些損失並不會被平均分擔。

To see how, let's go back to our restaurant owner. 表達脈絡

想知道為什麼，讓我們回到那位餐廳老闆的故事。

The industries hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic are labor-intensive and rely on an army of low-paid workers. 講解

受COVID-19疫情打擊最嚴重的行業是勞力密集產業，並依賴大量的低薪勞工。

And it is these people who are particularly likely to lose their jobs. 文法

而正是這些人失業的可能性尤其高。

In America, you are already twice as likely to be made redundant

在美國，年收入低於2萬美元的人被裁員的可能性，

if you're earning less than $20,000 a year than $80,000 a year.

已經是年收入8萬美元的人的兩倍。

The kind of jobs that won't exist at all or in much reduced numbers 文法

那些將完全消失或數量大幅減少的工作，

will be the kind of jobs that are typically done by people who are paid less,

主要是通常由薪水較低的人從事的工作、

jobs that are done by women, and jobs that are done by ethnic minorities more commonly.

女性從事的工作以及更常見由少數族裔從事的工作。

So that's jobs in things like leisure, hospitality, retail trade, and that kind of thing. 語氣意圖

也就是在休閒、飯店、零售等行業的工作。

So I think you could expect unemployment to be really concentrated in certain groups. 語氣意圖

因此，我認為您可以預期到失業真的會集中在某些群體中。

And these economic changes will shape the political agenda in the post-lockdown world. 片語搭配

這些經濟變化將塑造解封後世界的政治議程。

You could imagine a situation where it becomes kind of commonsensical that the essential workers who've kept the economy going, 講解

您可以想像這樣一種情況：人們形成一種常識，即對於那些維持經濟運作的基層勞工，

you can imagine a push towards trying to improve their standard of living and standard of work. 片語搭配

您可以想像會有一種推動力，試圖提高他們的生活和工作標準。

On the other hand, you could imagine a situation where countries kind of close in on themselves and say you know 講解

另一方面，您也可以想像這樣一種情況：一些國家陷入自我封閉，並說，您知道的，

we don't want immigrants because immigrants bring disease

我們不要移民，因為移民會帶來疾病，

and we want to make sure that we have capacity to build vaccines for our citizens for no one else.

我們要確保有能力為本國公民而不是其他人研發疫苗。

It's too soon to know which way the political tide will turn and each country's response will be different. 講解

現在要知道政治潮流將走向何方還為時過早，而且每個國家的反應也會有所不同。

But one certainty is that the longer we all have to wait for a vaccine to be developed and distributed or effective treatment found, 文法

但有一點是肯定的，我們需要等待疫苗研發和分配或找到有效療法的時間越長，

the more pronounced the effects of the 90% economy will be.

這種「90%經濟」的影響就會越明顯。

My name's Callum Williams.

我叫 Callum Williams。

I'm senior economics writer at The Economist.

我是《經濟學人》的資深經濟學撰稿人。

If you want to read more about the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, then click the link opposite.

如果您想了解更多關於新冠疫情經濟後果的內容，請點擊對面的連結。