如何為下一場全球經濟衰退做準備：英語精讀講義

We focused on this now

我們現在關注這個問題，

because it's been a decade 文法

因為距離

since the global recession of 2008 and 2009

2008年和2009年的全球經濟衰退已經過去了十年，

and some interesting and worrying vulnerabilities are also popping up at the moment. 片語動詞

而且目前也出現了一些令人擔憂的有趣漏洞。

In 2008 and 2009,

在2008年和2009年，

the dominoes were really set up for quite a nasty financial and economic 慣用語

骨牌確實為一場極其糟糕的金融和經濟

crisis. This time the economic vulnerabilities aren't quite as large. 文法

危機做好了準備。這次的經濟脆弱性沒那麼大。

They're large enough that we could see a slowdown in GDP growth, 文法

但它們足以讓我們看到GDP增長放緩，

a slowdown in trade and things of that nature. 片語搭配

貿易放緩以及類似情況的發生。

The real risk is that our lack of preparedness 表達脈絡

真正的風險在於，我們準備不足

and the lack of room for global cooperation

以及全球合作空間的缺乏，

will turn what starts as kind of a minor downturn 文法

將把一開始的輕微衰退

into something much larger and much more difficult to deal with 片語動詞

變成規模更大、更難應對的危機，

sometime in the next year or two.

時間大概在未來一兩年內。

The last big global downturn began in the United States

上一次全球大衰退始於美國，

with the collapse of the housing bubble in the financial sector there. 文化背景

導火線是那裡金融業房地產泡沫的破裂。

Next time the trouble is much more likely to start elsewhere

下一次麻煩更有可能從其他地方開始，

and perhaps in the emerging world.

也許是在新興世界。

Emerging economies are a much larger share of global output

新興經濟體在全球產出中所占的份額

than they used to be. 文法

比過去大得多。

They've also gone on something of a borrowing binge over the last 10 years, 講解

在過去10年裡，他們還進行了一場瘋狂借貸，

which means that they could be due for a reckoning. 慣用語

這意味著他們可能要面臨清算了。

There are also reasons to be concerned about the Euro area

也有理由對歐元區感到擔憂，

and in particular Italy, 表達脈絡

特別是義大利，

which has an enormous public debt problem

該國存在巨額公共債務問題，

and where markets have been feeling a bit jittery 用詞

而且市場對他們償還債務的能力

about their ability to pay that back 片語動詞

一直感到有些不安，

and that could relaunch the Euro area debt crisis

這可能會重新引發歐元區債務危機，

that we saw about a half decade ago.

就像大約五年前我們看到的那樣。

The tools governments normally use to fight a recession

政府通常用來應對經濟衰退的工具

won't be available in the same way

在下一次到來時將無法像往常那樣

that they normally are the next time around. 片語搭配

發揮同樣的作用。

Interest rates will be very low

利率將非常低，

and so we normally rely on central banks to do interest rate cutting

因此我們通常依賴央行降息

to perk up spending, 片語動詞

來刺激消費、

perk up growth

刺激增長，

and they're not going to be able to do that.

但他們將無法做到這一點。

So pretty quickly

所以很快，

they're gonna have to turn to less tested methods. 片語動詞

他們將不得不轉向那些未經太多考驗的方法。

Money printing to buy bonds,

印鈔購買債券，

quantitative easing was something that was used last time. 文化背景

即量化寬鬆，就是上一次用過的手段。

That's going to be used again,

它將會再次被使用，

but that works in a much more uncertain way

但其效果更加不確定，

and is much more politically contentious 用詞

而且在政治上更具爭議性，

than some of the tools that are ordinarily used.

相比起通常使用的那些工具來說。

Within countries, 表達脈絡

在國家內部，

the problem is that uh government is much more polarized.

問題在於政府的兩極化更加嚴重。

Across the world you have many more populist parties,

在世界各地，你有更多的民粹主義政黨、

nationalist parties

民族主義政黨，

and it's going to be very hard to reach the agreement 片語搭配

而且將很難達成協議，

that is necessary to launch big spending programs

這是啟動大型支出計畫

and things of that nature.

以及類似項目所必需的。

Then you also have disagreements across countries,

然後國家之間也存在分歧，

which means that it's much more likely you have contentious policies,

這意味著你更有可能遇到有爭議的政策、

tariffs that go up,

關稅上升、

currency wars, 文化背景

貨幣戰爭

things of that nature

以及諸如此類的事情，

as countries struggle to deal with the next downturn.

因為各國都在努力應對下一次衰退。

Ideally,

理想情況下，

governments would be taking some steps right now 片語搭配

各國政府現在就應該採取一些措施

to get ready for the next recession.

為下一次經濟衰退做準備。

They should be changing their central bank policy targets.

他們應該改變央行的政策目標。

What we've learned is that a low inflation target 表達脈絡

我們已經認識到，低通膨目標

doesn't give central banks enough room to fight recessions 片語搭配

並沒有給央行足夠的空間來對抗衰退，

before interest rates fall to zero. 文化背景

在利率降至零之前。

They should also be getting their budgets ready,

他們還應該準備好預算，

which means preparing to include measures

這意味著準備納入一些措施，

that will increase spending automatically

以便在未來經濟疲軟時

when the economy weakens in the future

自動增加支出，

so that they don't have to have fights in parliament

這樣他們就不必在議會中

about whether or not to expand spending 文法

為了是否擴大支出而爭吵，

when the time comes. 片語搭配

當那一刻到來時。

But then most important of all, 表達脈絡

但最重要的是，

I think,

我認為，

governments need to coordinate their responses with each other. 片語搭配

各國政府需要相互協調應對措施。

That makes it much more likely 文法

這樣就更有可能

that we don't enter a scenario like we did in the 1930s 文化背景

避免陷入像20世紀30年代那樣的情境，

when tariff barriers went up,

當時關稅壁壘高築，

when there were currency wars

出現了貨幣戰爭

and competitive devaluations

和競爭性貶值，

and when ultimately that led to some pretty significant 表達脈絡

最終導致了一些相當嚴重的

and nasty geopolitical tension.

惡劣地緣政治緊張局勢。