為什麼你的選票不算數：英語精讀講義

Welcome to The Problem with First Past the Post Voting Explained by me, CGP Grey.

歡迎收看由我，CGP Grey 解說的《簡單多數制投票的問題》。

The royal family has a problem,

王室遇到了麻煩，

but this isn't just any royal family.

但這不是普通的王室。

These are the lions,

他們是獅子，

rulers of the jungle since time immemorial. 慣用語

自古以來叢林的統治者。

There are protests over the monarchy's absolute power

對於君主制的絕對權力出現了抗議，

and the citizens of the animal kingdom want a say in how they are governed. 片語搭配

動物王國的公民們想要在如何被統治的問題上有發言權。

Bending to the pressure, 慣用語

迫於壓力，

Lion has abdicated his crown 用詞

雄獅放棄了王位，

and King is to be an elected office. 文法

國王將成為一個民選職位。

To ensure a smooth transition, 片語搭配

為了確保平穩過渡，

and because she is craftier than her husband,

也因為她比丈夫更狡猾，

the Queen Lioness is remaining on the throne

獅子王后繼續留在王位上，

with the power to set the rules for all elections in her kingdom.

並擁有為王國所有選舉制定規則的權力。

She has declared that all citizens get one and only one vote 片語搭配

她宣布所有公民只能投一票，

and that the candidate with the most votes wins the crown.

並且得票最多的候選人贏得王冠。

This method of voting is most often called first past the post, 文化背景

這種投票方法通常被稱為簡單多數制（first past the post），

awkwardly abbreviated as FPTP or winner take all. 文化背景

尷尬地縮寫為 FPTP 或贏者全拿。

This system is simple, fair and logical, right? 表達脈絡

這個系統簡單、公平且合乎邏輯，對吧？

Actually,

實際上，

no.

並非如此。

It's a terrible, terrible idea.

這是一個極其糟糕的主意。

Why?

為什麼呢？

Well,

好吧，

to see the problems with first past the post,

為了看出簡單多數制的問題，

let's watch the first election unfold in the animal kingdom. 文法

讓我們來看看動物王國的第一次選舉是如何展開的。

It's an exciting time for the burgeoning democracy

對於新興的民主制度來說，這是一個激動人心的時刻，

and seven hopeful candidates come forward to run and represent their parties. 片語動詞

七位滿懷希望的候選人挺身而出，代表他們的政黨參選。

They put on their best campaigns,

他們進行了最好的競選活動，

citizens head out to the polls and the votes are counted. 片語動詞

公民們前往投票站，選票被統計出來。

The results come in as follows. 表達脈絡

結果如下。

Turtle gets 9% of the vote,

烏龜獲得了 9% 的選票，

Monkey gets 18,

猴子獲得 18，

Gorilla gets 19,

大猩猩獲得 19，

Owl gets 13,

貓頭鷹獲得 13，

Leopard gets 20,

豹子獲得 20，

Tiger gets 15

老虎獲得 15，

and Snake gets six.

蛇獲得了 6。

Under the rules of first past the post,

在簡單多數制的規則下，

Leopard is crowned the winner and she gets to rule for the length of her term.

豹子被加冕為贏家，並在其任期內進行統治。

But take another look at the results and you'll see the first problem with this system,

但再看看結果，你就會發現這個系統的第一個問題，

minority rule.

少數人統治。

The vast majority of citizens, 片語搭配

絕大多數的公民，

80%,

80%，

wanted someone else as king

希望其他人成為國王，

but Leopard still won.

但豹子還是贏了。

There were only seven candidates in this race,

這次選舉只有七名候選人，

but if you imagine if there had been 20,

但如果你想像如果有 20 名候選人，

she might have only gotten 5% of the vote 文法

她可能只獲得了 5% 的選票，

but still been elected.

但仍然當選了。

This problem with minority rule

這種少數人統治的問題，

is only the beginning.

僅僅是個開始。

The second problem with first past the post is that,

簡單多數制的第二個問題是，

given enough time, 文法

只要時間足夠長，

it results in an inevitable, 片語搭配

它必然會導致一個，

unavoidable two-party system.

無法避免的兩黨制。

Why?

為什麼呢？

To see,

為了弄清楚，

let's watch what happens over several election cycles.

讓我們看看幾個選舉週期後會發生什麼。

Leopard has had her term in office

豹子的任期結束了，

and it's again election time in the young democracy.

年輕的民主國家又到了選舉的時候。

Only now all the citizens of animal kingdom remember the results from last time.

只是現在，動物王國的所有公民都記得上次的結果。

This information changes how they'll behave,

這個資訊改變了他們的行為方式，

particularly Snake and Turtle voters,

特別是蛇和烏龜的選民，

who must face the reality 片語搭配

他們必須面對現實，

that they backed unappealing extremist candidates 用詞

即他們支持了沒有吸引力的極端候選人，

who don't have a chance of winning. 片語搭配

他們沒有機會獲勝。

Turtle voters,

烏龜的選民，

who were unhappy under Leopard rule,

在豹子統治下過得並不開心，

decided to back the candidate who has the best chance of winning,

決定支持最有可能獲勝的候選人，

Gorilla.

大猩猩。

Now Snake voters want to vote for Tiger,

現在，蛇的選民想把票投給老虎，

who is the candidate they have the most in common with, 片語搭配

也就是與他們共同點最多的候選人，

but they're afraid to because Leopard is running a negative campaign against her competitors. 講解

但他們不敢，因為豹子正在對她的競爭對手進行抹黑競選。

Snake voters,

蛇的選民，

not liking the idea of Gorilla rule, 文法

不喜歡大猩猩統治的想法，

vote strategically for Leopard. 片語搭配

策略性地將票投給了豹子。

The final results look like this,

最終結果看起來像這樣，

with Leopard getting 26% of the vote

豹子獲得了 26% 的選票，

and Gorilla getting 28,

大猩猩獲得了 28，

making him the new king. 文法

使他成為了新國王。

Snake and Turtle,

蛇和烏龜，

seeing their dismal results

看到他們慘淡的結果，

and knowing the cost of their campaigns,

並深知競選的成本，

decide to drop out of future races. 片語動詞

決定退出未來的競選。

What started out as a seven party system

從最初的七黨制，

is now down to five.

現在減少到了五個。

Fast forward to the next election. 表達脈絡

快進到下一次選舉。

Only five candidates run

只有五名候選人參選，

and again the voters remember what happened last time.

選民們再次記住了上次發生的事情。

In this election,

在這次選舉中，

it's Owl voters who recognize that their candidate cannot win.

輪到貓頭鷹的選民認識到他們的候選人無法獲勝。

They are centrist voters

他們是中間派選民，

and less ideological than the rest of the animal kingdom.

比動物王國的其他選民意識形態色彩要淡。

As such, 表達脈絡

因此，

they don't really like Gorilla or Leopard.

他們並不是很喜歡大猩猩或豹子。

Both Gorilla and Leopard know this,

大猩猩和豹子都知道這一點，

so they each run negative campaigns to capitalize on the fears of the centrists. 片語搭配

所以他們各自進行了負面競選，以利用中間派的恐懼。

Owl voters split their vote

貓頭鷹的選民分散了他們的選票，

and are mostly voting against the candidate they dislike 文法

主要是在投票反對他們討厭的候選人，

rather than supporting the candidate they do like.

而不是支持他們喜歡的候選人。

After this election,

這次選舉之後，

Gorilla gets 33% of the vote

大猩猩獲得了 33% 的選票，

and Leopard gets 34,

而豹子獲得了 34，

making her the winner.

使她成為了贏家。

Owl,

貓頭鷹，

as did Turtle and Snake before her, 文法

就像在她之前的烏龜和蛇一樣，

drops out of the race.

退出了競選。

In the last election we'll look at,

在我們要看的最後一次選舉中，

Monkey and Tiger voters are unhappy.

猴子和老虎的選民很不高興。

They both really like the candidates they have supported,

他們都很喜歡自己支持的候選人，

but they now have to compromise.

但他們現在不得不妥協。

Monkey voters agree with Gorilla on a few issues, 片語搭配

猴子的選民在幾個問題上同意大猩猩，

but they really don't like Leopard.

但他們真的很討厭豹子。

And Tiger voters agree with Leopard on some issues,

老虎的選民在某些問題上同意豹子，

but they really don't like Gorilla.

但他們真的很討厭大猩猩。

They strategically abandon their preferred candidate

他們策略性地放棄了他們首選的候選人，

out of fear of the one they disagree with the most becoming king. 片語搭配

因為害怕他們最不同意的那個人成為國王。

The final results are Leopard 49%

最終結果是豹子 49%

and Gorilla 51,

大猩猩 51，

with him being crowned the king.

大猩猩被加冕為王。

Monkey and Tiger are the last candidates to drop out

猴子和老虎是最後退出的候選人，

and now the animal kingdom is left with a two-party system. 片語搭配

現在動物王國只剩下了兩黨制。

Because of the centrist and swayable Owl voters,

由於中間派和容易動搖的貓頭鷹選民，

in future elections

在未來的選舉中，

Leopard might take the crown, 慣用語

豹子可能會奪得王冠，

then Gorilla wins it back,

然後大猩猩又贏了回來，

only to lose it to Leopard again,

結果又輸給了豹子，

but the two parties never change.

但這兩個政黨永遠不會改變。

The citizens of animal kingdom ended up with this system,

動物王國的公民最終得到了這個制度，

not because they are lazy voters or because that's what they really wanted, 文法

不是因為他們是懶惰的選民，或者這正是他們想要的，

but because the mathematics of how the system is set up.

而是因為這個系統設置的數學原理。

Inevitably,

不可避免地，

given enough time,

只要時間足夠長，

all first past the post systems trend towards two main parties. 片語搭配

所有簡單多數制系統都會趨向於兩個主要政黨。

But the choices of the voters still hasn't changed since that first election.

但自第一次選舉以來，選民的選擇仍然沒有改變。

Only two-fifths of them want either Leopard or Gorilla as their first choice 文法

只有五分之二的人將豹子或大猩猩作為他們的首選，

and three-fifths of them want someone else as their first choice.

而五分之三的人希望其他人成為他們的首選。

It's this majority of the voters that become disinterested in the democratic process 講解

正是這部分占多數的選民對民主過程失去了興趣，

because they feel they have no meaningful way to express their real preferences. 片語搭配

因為他們覺得自己沒有有意義的方式來表達真實的偏好。

But it only gets worse from here. 表達脈絡

但情況只會變得更糟。

If the citizens of animal kingdom are divided into groups before they vote,

如果動物王國的公民在投票前被分成不同的小組，

they are susceptible to gerrymandering. 文化背景

他們就容易受到傑利蠑螈（選區劃分不公）的影響。

Gerrymandering is a bit tricky,

傑利蠑螈有點棘手，

but imagine a block of 10 homes,

但想像一個有 10 戶人家的街區，

each with one voter inside.

裡面各有一名選民。

Three are Leopard voters,

三名是豹子的選民，

three are Gorilla voters and four are Owl voters.

三名是大猩猩的選民，四名是貓頭鷹的選民。

If they're divided up into groups before they vote, 片語動詞

如果他們在投票前被分成了不同的小組，

whoever decides where the lines are drawn has enormous influence over who wins the election. 文化背景

那麼決定在哪裡劃線的人對誰贏得選舉有著巨大的影響力。

For example,

例如，

if you group the three Leopard voters with the two Owl voters

如果你把三名豹子選民和兩名貓頭鷹選民分在一組，

and do the same with the three Gorilla voters,

並對三名大猩猩選民做同樣的事情，

you can eliminate Owl from the election

你就可以把貓頭鷹從選舉中淘汰，

even though Owl voters have the largest minority and would win under a straight first past the post vote.

儘管貓頭鷹的選民擁有最大的少數群體，並且會在純粹的簡單多數制投票中獲勝。

If the Leopard or Gorilla parties are in charge when the voting boundaries are drawn, 片語搭配

如果在劃定投票邊界時由豹子或大猩猩黨掌權，

they have enormous incentive to carve out safe seats for themselves. 文化背景

他們就有巨大的動力為自己劃分出安全的席位。

But more on gerrymandering in another video.

但關於傑利蠑螈的更多內容在另一個影片中。

"Bah!"

「呸！」

I hear you say. 表達脈絡

我聽到你說。

"Vote third party and change the system."

「把票投給第三黨，改變這個系統。」

This brings us to the final and possibly worst problem of first past the post, 表達脈絡

這就把我們帶到了簡單多數制最後一個、可能也是最糟糕的問題，

the spoiler effect. 文化背景

攪局效應（分票效應）。

Imagine now that it's been years and years of Gorilla or Leopard rule.

現在想像一下大猩猩或豹子統治了許多許多年。

Tiger decides it's time to enter the race.

老虎決定是時候參加競選了。

He thinks that the voters are tired of the status quo 用詞

他認為選民們已經厭倦了現狀，

and he has a shot at winning. 慣用語

並且他有機會獲勝。

He sets up his campaign office,

他設立了競選辦公室，

gets a surprising amount of gold in donations,

獲得了數量驚人的黃金捐款，

and gets on the Animal News Network to debate with the main candidates.

並上了動物新聞網與主要候選人進行辯論。

Election night comes around, 片語動詞

選舉之夜到了，

but alas, 用詞

但哎呀，

Tiger gets only 15% of the vote,

老虎只獲得了 15% 的選票，

mostly from Leopard voters who are closest to him on the political spectrum. 文化背景

主要來自在政治光譜上離他最近的豹子選民。

Gorilla easily beats Leopard and gets to be king.

大猩猩輕鬆擊敗豹子並成為了國王。

This is the first past the post system at its worst.

這是簡單多數制最糟糕的時候。

The better a third party candidate does, 文法

一個第三黨候選人表現得越好，

the more it hurts its own voters

就越會傷害自己的選民，

by guaranteeing a loss for the party they most agree with 片語搭配

因為這確保了他們最同意的政黨失敗，

and a win for the party they most disagree with.

而他們最不同意的政黨獲勝。

And don't forget,

別忘了，

Gorilla is no fool. 慣用語

大猩猩不是傻瓜。

He knows how the system works.

他知道系統是如何運作的。

Where do you think some of those gold donations came from? 語氣意圖

你認為那些黃金捐款是哪裡來的？

Meanwhile,

與此同時，

the Queen Lioness is displeased.

獅子王后很不高興。

She's been observing the elections

她一直在觀察選舉，

and sees that the system is bad for her subjects.

並發現這個制度對她的臣民不好。

And she's been thinking,

她一直在想，

what makes a good voting system? 文法

什麼是好的投票系統？

Well,

那麼，

you should be able to vote for the candidate who you like the most without worrying. 文法

你應該能夠毫無顧慮地把票投給你最喜歡的候選人。

More choice in representatives is better.

代表有更多的選擇會更好。

The system shouldn't be susceptible to gerrymandering

系統不應該容易受到傑利蠑螈的影響，

and it should be open to new political parties. 片語搭配

而且應該對新的政黨開放。

Luckily for the Queen,

對王后來說幸運的是，

there are several different voting systems to choose from,

有幾種不同的投票系統可供選擇，

including the alternative vote,

包括排序複選制，

but that will have to be discussed in detail at another time. 文法

但這將需要在其他時候詳細討論。

Thank you very much for watching.

非常感謝你的觀看。