現實是真的嗎？模擬假說：英語精讀講義

We humans are unable to experience the true nature of the universe unfiltered.

我們人類無法在未經任何過濾的情況下體驗宇宙的真實本質。

Our senses and brains can only process a fraction of the world.

我們的感官和大腦只能處理世界的一小部分。

So we have to use concepts and tools to learn about the true nature of reality.

因此，我們必須使用概念和工具來了解現實的真正本質。

Technological progress not only widened our knowledge about the universe, 文法

科技進步不僅拓寬了我們關於宇宙的知識，

it also made us aware of unsettling possibilities. 片語搭配

它也讓我們意識到一些令人不安的可能性。

In the future,

在未來，

it might become possible to simulate entire universes.

模擬整個宇宙可能會成為現實。

But if this is an option,

但是，如果這是一個選項，

how can we know that it's not already happened?

我們怎麼知道它還沒有發生呢？

What if we are not creators, 文法

如果我們不是創造者，

but creations?

而是被創造物呢？

Is it possible that we are not real

我們有沒有可能並不是真實的，

and we don't even know it?

而且我們甚至不知道這一點？

If our current understanding of physics is correct, 文法

如果我們目前對物理學的理解是正確的，

then it's impossible to simulate the whole universe

那麼要模擬整個宇宙

with its trillions and trillions of things.

包含其數以兆計的事物是不可能的。

But we don't actually need to anyway.

但實際上無論如何我們都不需要。

We only need enough universe to fool the inhabitants of our simulation 片語搭配

我們只需要足夠大的宇宙來欺騙我們模擬中的居民，

into thinking that they're real.

讓他們認為自己是真實的。

Who needs billions of galaxies?

誰會需要數十億個星系？

We only need the space our subjects are allowed to explore.

我們只需要我們的實驗對象被允許探索的空間。

The vast universe could just be a flat projection

浩瀚的宇宙可能只是一個平面的投影，

and they would have no way to know.

而他們根本無從知曉。

What about small things like cells or bacteria?

那像細胞或細菌這樣的小東西呢？

We don't really need them.

我們並不真的需要它們。

When you use a microscope,

當你使用顯微鏡時，

what you see could be instantly created.

你所看到的可以是被瞬間創造出來的。

Same with atoms.

原子也是如此。

The chair you're sitting on right now

你現在坐的椅子

does not need to be simulated with quadrillions of atoms.

不需要用千萬億個原子來模擬。

We just need the outermost layer of it.

我們只需要它的最外層。

It might be empty inside

裡面可能是空的，

until you decide to break it open. 文法

直到你決定把它切開。

Your body might feel like it's filled with bubbly things,

你的身體可能感覺裡面充滿了各種跳動的東西，

but it might be empty until you open it.

但在你剖開它之前，它可能是空的。

The minimum requirement for our simulation

我們模擬的最低要求

is only the consciousness of our virtual humans.

僅僅是我們虛擬人類的意識。

Our subjects just need to think the simulation is real.

我們的實驗對象只需要認為模擬是真實的就行。

Okay,

那麼，

so are we being simulated?

我們正在被模擬嗎？

Well, maybe,

嗯，也許吧，

but there are a few conditions that need to be met. 片語搭配

但需要滿足一些條件。

Obviously,

顯然，

we have no authority over this topic,

我們在這個話題上毫無權威，

so please take everything we say with a grain of salt. 慣用語

所以對我們所說的話請持保留態度。

Based on a modified version of the original simulation argument by Nick Bostrom,

基於 Nick Bostrom 原始模擬假說的修改版，

we have five assumptions for you.

我們為你準備了五個假設。

If they're true,

如果它們是真的，

you, dear viewer,

親愛的觀眾，你

are living in a simulation.

正生活在一個模擬之中。

Assumption one:

假設一：

It's possible to simulate consciousness.

模擬意識是可能的。

Nobody knows what consciousness is.

沒有人知道意識到底是什麼。

For the sake of argument, 片語搭配

為了討論方便，

let's assume that you could generate consciousness by simulating a brain.

假設你可以透過模擬大腦來產生意識。

Brains are pretty complex.

大腦相當複雜。

If you count every interaction between synapses as one operation, 片語搭配

如果你把突觸之間的每一次交互作用算作一次運算，

your brain runs at about 10 to the power of 17,

你的大腦大約以10的17次方，

or 100 million billion operations per second.

即每秒1億億次運算的速度運行。

Let's generously assume we need 10 to the power of 20 operations

我們慷慨地假設，我們需要10的20次方次運算

to simulate 1 second of human consciousness.

來模擬1秒鐘的人類意識。

But we don't want to simulate just one human,

但我們不想只模擬一個人類，

we want to simulate all of human history at once,

我們想一次性模擬整個人類歷史，

so we can skip around. 片語動詞

這樣我們就可以隨意跳躍。

Let's say we want to simulate 200 billion humans with an average lifespan of 50 years.

假設我們想模擬2000億個平均壽命為50年的人類。

1 year has 30 million seconds times 50 years

一年有3000萬秒乘以50年，

times 200 billion humans

乘以2000億人，

times 10 to the power of 20 operations.

乘以10的20次方次運算。

So we need a computer able to handle

因此，我們需要一台能夠處理

a million trillion trillion trillion operations per second.

每秒一百萬兆兆兆次運算的電腦。

More operations than there are stars in the observable universe. 文法

運算次數比可觀測宇宙中的恆星還要多。

A computer like this is just impossible.

這樣的電腦根本不可能存在。

Except maybe it isn't. 表達脈絡

除非，也許並非如此。

Assumption two:

假設二：

Technological progress will not stop anytime soon. 片語搭配

科技進步不會在近期停止。

If we assume that technological progress continues in a similar fashion as it has so far, 片語搭配

如果我們假設科技進步以與目前相似的方式繼續下去，

then there might be galaxy-spanning civilizations with unlimited computer power at some point.

那麼在某個時候可能會出現擁有無限計算能力的跨星系文明。

Beings on a technology level so advanced that we could barely distinguish them from gods. 片語搭配

這些存在的科技水準如此先進，以至於我們幾乎無法將他們與神區分開來。

A computer that can handle a million trillion trillion trillion operations is serious business, 慣用語

一台能處理一百萬兆兆兆次運算的電腦絕非兒戲，

but there are actually concepts for computers which could handle this.

但實際上確實存在能夠處理這種運算的電腦概念。

The Matrioshka brain is a theoretical megastructure

俄羅斯套娃腦是一個理論上的巨型結構，

made up of billions of parts orbiting a star 片語動詞

由數十億個部件組成，繞著恆星運行，

feeding on its radiation. 片語動詞

靠吸收它的輻射來提供能量。

A computer of this scale would have enough power to simulate many thousands,

這種規模的電腦將有足夠的計算能力同時模擬成千上萬，

if not millions of humanities, 表達脈絡

甚至數以百萬計的人類文明，

at the same time.

同時進行。

Other technologies,

其他技術，

like high-end future quantum computers,

比如未來高階的量子電腦，

might lower the size drastically,

可能會大幅縮小尺寸，

so it might be possible to do this

所以也許可以透過

with a structure the size of a large city

一個大城市那麼大，

or even smaller.

甚至更小的結構來實現這一點。

But only if there's still someone around to build the computer. 文法

但前提是，還得有人來建造這台電腦。

Assumption three:

假設三：

Advanced civilizations don't destroy themselves.

先進文明不會自我毀滅。

If there is a point at which all civilizations destroy themselves, 文法

如果到了某個階段，所有文明都會毀滅自己，

this whole discussion ends here.

那麼整個討論就到此為止。

Looking into space,

望向太空，

you'd expect a universe filled with millions of alien civilizations, 表達脈絡

你會以為宇宙中充滿了數以百萬計的外星文明，

but we see nobody.

但我們什麼也沒看到。

The reason for this might be great filters. 文法

這背後的原因可能就是大過濾器。

Great filters are barriers life has to overcome, 文法

大過濾器是生命必須克服的障礙，

like nuclear war,

比如核戰爭、

asteroids, climate change,

小行星、氣候變遷，

or a black hole generator.

或者是製造出黑洞。

If life is inherently self-destructive,

如果生命本質上具有自我毀滅的傾向，

then there are no simulations.

那就不會有什麼模擬存在。

We explain this in more detail in our Fermi Paradox video.

我們在我們的「費米悖論」影片中有更詳細的解釋。

Assumption four:

假設四：

Super advanced civilizations want to run simulations.

超級先進文明想要進行模擬。

When we speak of post-human civilizations,

當我們談論後人類文明時，

we don't know what we're dealing with. 片語動詞

我們不知道我們在面對什麼。

To think we know what beings as powerful as gods 文法

認為我們知道像神一樣強大的存在

want is pretty arrogant.

想要什麼是相當傲慢的。

Imagine the smartest ant on Earth living next to an amusement park.

想像一下，地球上最聰明的螞蟻住在遊樂園旁邊。

It's curious about what humans are up to, 片語動詞

牠對人類在幹什麼很好奇，

so you try to explain.

所以你試圖解釋。

Unfortunately,

不幸的是，

the ant just doesn't understand.

螞蟻根本無法理解。

The concept of roller coasters

雲霄飛車、

and standing in lines and holidays and fun

排隊、假期和樂趣的概念，

doesn't make sense to an ant living an ant life. 片語搭配

對於一隻過著螞蟻生活的螞蟻來說是毫無意義的。

It's the same with us and a post-human being. 片語搭配

我們和後人類存在之間也是如此。

Compared to them, 表達脈絡

與他們相比，

we are ants.

我們就是螞蟻。

Running simulations for fun or science

為了好玩或科學而運行模擬，

might be an absurdly stupid idea to them.

對他們來說可能是一個荒謬愚蠢的想法。

But if they do want to run simulations for whatever reasons

但如果他們出於任何原因確實想運行模擬，

and assumptions 1 to 3 are true too,

而且假設1到3也是真的，

then the chances are not zero 文法

那麼你生活在模擬中的機率

that you are living inside a simulation.

就不是零。

Assumption five:

假設五：

If there are a lot of simulations,

如果存在大量的模擬，

you are probably inside a simulation.

你很有可能就在模擬之中。

If there are simulated civilizations,

如果存在被模擬的文明，

it's likely that there are a lot of them.

那麼它們很可能會有許多。

After all, 表達脈絡

畢竟，

we assume that post-human beings have access to practically unlimited computing power. 片語搭配

我們假設後人類存在可以獲得幾乎無限的計算能力。

So if they run simulations,

所以，如果他們進行模擬，

it would be convenient to run millions or even billions of them.

運行幾百萬甚至幾十億個模擬會很方便。

If there are billions of simulated universes,

如果有幾十億個模擬宇宙，

there are probably trillions and trillions of simulated conscious beings,

可能就有無數個被模擬的意識生物，

which would mean that the vast majority of all conscious beings 片語搭配

這將意味著絕大多數

that will ever have existed are simulated. 文法

曾經存在過的意識生物都是被模擬出來的。

So for every conscious being made of flesh,

所以，對於每一個有血有肉的意識生物來說，

a billion simulated ones exist.

都有十億個被模擬的生物存在。

Since we have no way of knowing if we are simulated or not, 片語搭配

既然我們無法判斷自己是否被模擬，

in this case

在這種情況下，

the chances of you being one of the 999,999,999 simulated ones 文法

你成為那999,999,999個被模擬者之一的機率

are pretty high.

是相當高的。

So what you consider reality

所以你認為的現實，

might not be real at all. 文法

可能根本不是真實的。

You really might be simulated.

你真的可能是被模擬出來的。

All of this is based on a lot of assumptions 片語搭配

所有這些都基於許多假設，

that we can't really test right now,

我們現在還無法真正去驗證，

so many scientists disagree with this whole thought experiment.

所以許多科學家不同意這個思維實驗。

So don't burn your house down to test

所以別把房子燒了來測試

if there will be glitches.

是否會出現系統故障。

If you are simulated, 文法

如果你是被模擬的，

not that much changes for you.

對你來說並沒有太多改變。

You might be on a small planet speeding through eternal nothingness

你可能是在一顆小行星上穿梭於永恆的虛無之中，

or a simulation inside a computer.

或者只是電腦裡的一段模擬。

Your existence does not become more or less scary and bizarre. 片語搭配

你的存在並不會變得更可怕或更怪異。

All we can hope to do is try to live good lives 文法

我們所能指望的，就是努力過好每一天，

and have a good time

享受美好時光，

and hope that if we actually are simulations in a supercomputer

並祈禱如果我們真的是超級電腦裡的模擬程式，

nobody trips over the power cable. 片語動詞

沒有人會被電源線絆倒。

Oh.

噢。

Oh.

噢。

Oh, no.

噢，不。

I think I just unplugged the simulation.

我好像剛把模擬器拔了。

But what if that doesn't matter?

但如果這都不重要呢？

What if we are in one right now?

如果我們現在就在一個模擬裡呢？

What if you are simulated?

如果你是被模擬出來的呢？

Jake over at Vsauce3 is looking into that. 片語動詞

Vsauce3 的 Jake 正在研究這個問題。

Click here to watch his video and subscribe to his channel.

點擊這裡觀看他的影片並訂閱他的頻道。

Why are you still here?

為什麼你還在這裡？

Go over to Vsauce3,

去 Vsauce3 看看吧，

watch the video and subscribe.

觀看影片並訂閱。

We promise it's worth your time.

我們保證這絕對值得你花時間。