新冠疫情：對經濟的衝擊將有多慘重？：英語精讀講義

Around the world, economies are crumbling. 慣用語

縱觀全球，各地經濟正在崩潰。

Since the coronavirus outbreak,

自新冠疫情爆發以來，

the price of every vital commodity has fallen.

每種重要大宗商品的價格都在下跌。

We're seeing a lot of these markets hit.

我們看到很多此類市場受到了打擊。

Coronavirus has oil below $50 a barrel.

新冠疫情使油價跌破了每桶50美元。

US demand in China has dropped off substantially. 片語動詞

美國在中國的需求大幅下降。

You’re impacting the demand for copper, iron ore,

你正在影響對銅、鐵礦石的需求，

even gold is going down.

甚至黃金的價格也在下跌。

America's Department of Labor has recorded the highest ever number of new unemployment claims in the past 2 weeks. 用詞

過去兩週，美國勞工部記錄了有史以來最高的新增失業救濟申請人數。

just under 10 million.

接近一千萬。

Governments had modeled the impact of a pandemic on their economies, 片語搭配

儘管各國政府曾對疫情給經濟帶來的影響進行過建模預測，

but were in no way prepared. 片語搭配

但他們完全沒有做好準備。

The indication is that um economic activity has been sledgehammered 慣用語

跡象表明，經濟活動遭受了重創，

uh in the course of a couple of weeks.

就在短短幾週之內。

Just how deep is the crisis for the world economy? 文法

那麼世界經濟的危機究竟有多深呢？

Over the past 2 months,

在過去的兩個月裡，

the world's biggest stock markets have turned red. 慣用語

全球最大的股票市場已紛紛亮起紅燈。

It falls like that because investors suddenly have to recalculate

股市之所以這樣下跌，是因為投資者突然不得不重新計算

the future for the economy and the future for corporate profits

經濟的未來以及企業未來的利潤，

and adjust their figures sharply downwards.

並大幅向下調整他們的預期數據。

And then they tend to sell uh assets uh which are the most liquid. 講解

然後他們往往會拋售流動性最強的資產。

Often those are the big companies in the S&P 500.

通常那些是標普500指數中的大型企業。

The S&P 500 had its quickest bear market decline in history. 用詞

標普500指數經歷了歷史上最快跌入熊市的階段。

When the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, 文化背景

在2000年互聯網泡沫破裂時，

it took almost 2 years for the S&P 500 to drop by 49%.

標普500指數花了近2年時間才下跌了49%。

The 2007 to 2009 financial crisis led to a fall of almost 60% 片語搭配

2007年至2009年的金融危機導致了近60%的下跌，

in just over a year.

歷時僅僅一年多。

The coronavirus pandemic has already seen the market fall by a third

而新冠疫情已經讓市場跌去了三分之一，

in just 1 month.

僅僅在一個月內。

This crash has been so quick because it was such a shock. 文法

這次崩盤之所以如此迅速，是因為它帶來了極大的震動。

In the financial crisis,

在金融危機中，

there was actually quite a long lead up. 用詞

實際上有相當長的一段醞釀期。

It was a good long 18 months of bad news. 用詞

那是足足長達18個月的壞消息。

But this is genuinely a uh deus ex machina, 文化背景

但這次真的是「天降神兵」，

a bolt from the blue, 慣用語

簡直是晴天霹靂，

uh where investors said,

投資者表示：

"We're just not pricing in the risk of a pandemic." 片語動詞

「我們根本沒有將大流行的風險計入價格中。」

And of course, governments have never in the past

當然，各國政府過去也從未

imposed the kind of lockdown on a global economy

對全球經濟實施過這種規模的封鎖，

uh that they have this time.

像他們這次所做的那樣。

So, this was not something people had in their models.

所以，這不是人們在他們的預測模型中考慮到的事情。

In an effort to stop the deadly virus, 片語搭配

為了阻止這種致命的病毒，

businesses have been forced to close 文法

企業被迫關閉，

and citizens isolated at home on an unprecedented scale worldwide. 片語搭配

而公民們在全球範圍內以前所未有的規模居家隔離。

It's caused a unique economic crisis,

這引發了一場獨特的經濟危機，

the impact of which will be greater on some industries in particular. 文法

其影響對某些特定行業尤為巨大。

The industries which are hit hardest are those which are related to the consumer.

受打擊最嚴重的行業是那些與消費者相關的行業。

So, that's retailing,

比如零售業，

that's entertainment,

比如娛樂業，

that's hospitality, both hotels and restaurants,

比如酒店和餐飲等服務業，

many of which have simply been locked down. 片語動詞

其中許多乾脆被直接封鎖了。

And many of these companies will have high costs

而這些公司中的許多還要面臨高昂的成本，

uh which they'll need to keep meeting.

他們需要繼續支付這些開銷。

So, suddenly you have lots of costs continuing and absolutely no revenues,

所以，突然間你有大量成本在持續，卻完全沒有收入，

uh which is the worst possible outcome for these businesses.

這對這些企業來說是最糟糕的結果。

But even if a business isn't directly losing out from people staying at home, 片語動詞

但即使企業沒有因為人們呆在家裡而直接遭受損失，

lockdowns are having a devastating ripple effect. 慣用語

封鎖也正在產生毀滅性的連鎖反應。

Modern industry relies on goods and materials crossing borders.

現代工業依賴於跨境運輸的貨物和材料。

When they can't, production around the world is endangered.

當它們無法跨國流動時，全球的生產都會受到威脅。

The coronavirus caused a break in the biggest link in this vast global supply chain. 用詞

新冠病毒在這個龐大的全球供應鏈的最大環節上造成了斷裂。

The problem started in China

問題始於中國，

where uh the disease started really to be seen in December

該疾病在12月真正開始顯現，

and then had a huge impact in January.

隨後在1月產生了巨大的影響。

And China is the bedrock of the global supply chain. 慣用語

而中國是全球供應鏈的基石。

Businesses started to look for alternative suppliers,

企業開始尋找替代供應商，

uh but of course that was a race to try and find the few that had spare capacity. 用詞

但當然這是一場爭相尋找少數還有閒置產能的供應商的競賽。

As the virus spread,

隨著病毒的傳播，

alternative suppliers have become fewer and further between. 慣用語

替代供應商變得越來越少，越來越難找。

It's going to take a very, very long time 文法

他們將需要非常、非常長的時間

uh for them to rebuild their supply chains.

來重建他們的供應鏈。

And in the interim, because there's very little demand uh for finished products, 片語搭配

而在此期間，由於對製成品的需求極小，

few companies are going to want to uh resurrect that supply chain instantly 慣用語

幾乎沒有公司會想立即恢復那個供應鏈，

until they know that the economy has settled down. 片語動詞

直到他們知道經濟已經穩定下來。

The true extent of the damage to the world economy

對世界經濟造成的損害的真實程度，

will only start to become clear with the speed and strength of its recovery.

只有通過其復甦的速度和力度才能開始變得清晰。

The big question that economists are still trying to grapple with 片語搭配

經濟學家們仍在努力解決的最大問題，

is whether this is what they call a V-shaped uh recession 文化背景

是這到底是一場所謂的V型衰退，

or a U-shaped recession

還是U型衰退，

or an L-shaped recession.

或者是L型衰退。

In a V-shaped recession,

在V型衰退中，

the economy suffers a rapid fall,

經濟經歷快速下滑，

but rebounds very quickly.

但反彈非常迅速。

As opposed to a longer economic trough before recovery. 講解

這與復甦前較長的經濟低谷期不同。

Or long-term recession.

或者長期的經濟衰退。

Now, the most encouraging news we've had so far

現在，我們迄今得到的最令人鼓舞的消息是，

is that in China,

在中國，

uh which was the first economy to be hit,

這個最早受到打擊的經濟體中，

the latest figures suggest the most hopeful possibility,

最新數據表明了最有希望的可能性，

which is that this is a V-shaped recession.

那就是這是一次V型衰退。

Now, if China can do that,

那麼，如果中國能做到這一點，

the hope is that Europe and America can do that

人們希望歐洲和美國也能做到，

um later on when the lockdowns are lifted. 片語搭配

在日後解除封鎖的時候。

Europeans and Americans are also being helped by unprecedented government responses.

歐洲人和美國人也得到了政府史無前例的援助。

330 billion pounds.

3300億英鎊。

$2.2 trillion dollars in urgently needed relief. 用詞

2.2萬億美元急需的救濟金。

These short-term protections might reduce the damage the economy suffers, 文法

這些短期的保護措施可能會減少經濟遭受的損害，

but this pandemic could last a long time.

但這場疫情可能會持續很長時間。

So, the difficult calculation for governments

因此，對於政府來說，艱難的計算在於，

is trading off the lives of people who will die from the coronavirus 片語動詞

在死於新冠病毒的生命

versus the economic damage uh to the economy.

與經濟受到的損害之間進行權衡。

Year-long lockdowns would cost America and the Eurozone 文法

長達一年的封鎖將使美國和歐元區損失

perhaps a third of their GDP.

大約三分之一的國內生產總值（GDP）。

Models looking at America suggest that ending lockdowns would lessen that damage,

針對美國的數據模型表明，結束封鎖將減輕這種損失，

but would lead to around 1 million extra deaths.

但會導致額外約100萬人死亡。

In the last 75 years since the Second World War,

在二戰以來的這75年裡，

we've seen nothing like this. 片語搭配

我們從未見過類似的情況。

Governments have not reacted on this scale.

政府也從未做出過如此規模的反應。

So, although it's terrible, 表達脈絡

所以，儘管這很可怕，

uh in a way it shows our humanity

但在某種程度上它展現了我們的人性，

that we want to reduce uh the number of deaths so much 文法

也就是我們如此渴望減少死亡人數，

that we're willing to put up with all these restrictions 片語動詞

以至於我們願意忍受所有這些限制，

and we're willing to accept a big hit to economic activity. 慣用語

並且願意接受經濟活動遭受的巨大打擊。

I'm Philip Coggan.

我是 Philip Coggan。

I'm reporting for The Economist on the financial crisis

我在為《經濟學人》報導這場

that's been created by the pandemic.

由疫情引發的金融危機。

If you want to read more,

如果你想閱讀更多內容，

click on the link opposite.

請點擊對面的鏈接。

And thank you for watching.

感謝您的收看。