6分鐘看懂通貨膨脹：英語精讀講義

No.

不。

No cool intro,

沒有酷炫的開場，

no fancy music.

沒有花俏的音樂。

I just want to explain inflation in 6 minutes.

我只想用6分鐘講清楚通貨膨脹。

I have a degree in economics.

我有經濟學學位。

I spent years trying to understand this.

我花了好幾年才搞懂這件事。

So let's see if I can boil it down. 片語動詞

所以，來看看我能不能把它濃縮講清楚。

What is inflation?

什麼是通貨膨脹？

Why is it rising?

為什麼通膨正在上升？

Why are people worried?

為什麼大家會擔心？

And what do interest rates have to do with it? 片語搭配

這跟利率又有什麼關係？

The Federal Reserve is raising the interest rate.

聯準會正在升息。

FED is set to raise interest rates. 文法

聯準會準備升息。

highest inflation in 40 years.

40年來最高的通膨率。

Listen.

聽我說。

I know that I make long videos.

我知道，我做的影片都很長。

I'm into nuance, I'm into backstory.

我喜歡探究細微差異，也喜歡講背景故事。

Well, this isn't that.

不過，這次不是那種影片。

This is quick.

這次很快。

No, really.

不，真的。

This is quick.

真的很快。

Let's go.

開始吧。

Okay, first up, the simplest definition.

好，先從最簡單的定義講起。

Inflation is when there is more money in the economy than stuff to spend it on.

通膨就是經濟體裡的錢，多過可供大家購買的東西。

But if you're like me, the simplest definition never does it for you. 慣用語

不過，如果你跟我一樣，最簡單的定義從來都沒辦法讓你真正搞懂。

So let's try this.

所以，我們換個方式。

Imagine a village that has one market where people buy all of their stuff,

想像有一座村莊，裡面只有一個市場，村民所有東西都在那裡買，

their food, their clothes.

食物、衣服都在那裡買。

But one day the government shows up because they're worried about the economy of this village.

但有一天，政府出現了，因為他們很擔心這座村莊的經濟。

So they tell the people that if they want to take out a loan, 片語動詞

於是他們告訴村民，如果想要貸款，

they're going to make sure that the banks will not charge them a high interest rate.

政府會確保銀行不會收取高額利息。

They want to encourage the people to take out loans and spend money.

他們想鼓勵村民貸款、花錢。

Oh, and they also drop off a giant pile of cash for everyone in the village.

對了，他們還給村裡每個人送來一大堆現金。

And everyone in the village is like, sweet. 語氣意圖

全村的人都覺得：太棒了。

I'm feeling pretty rich.

我覺得自己滿有錢的。

Villagers now are going to their market and they're buying way more stuff.

現在，村民紛紛到市場買東西，而且買得比以前多很多。

Many of them have been eyeing the fancy electric bike in the market 用詞

許多人早就看上市場裡那輛高檔電動腳踏車，

that before they couldn't justify, 用詞

以前覺得沒有道理花這筆錢，

but now they totally can because they have all this new money. 文法

但現在有了這麼多新拿到的錢，當然可以買了。

The store owner's like, sweet, this is great for business.

店老闆心想：太棒了，生意好得不得了。

But he's running out of bikes.

可是他的腳踏車快賣光了。

In fact, he's running out of everything. 片語動詞

事實上，他所有東西都快賣光了。

Because now all of these people have extra money and they're buying way more than they used to. 文法

因為現在大家都有多出來的錢，買的東西比以前多得多。

The store owner is like, I can't keep up with all this demand. 片語動詞

店老闆心想：這麼大的需求，我根本應付不來。

I should raise prices.

我應該漲價。

And that is inflation.

這就是通貨膨脹。

But the village is all of us and the market is the entire economy. 表達脈絡

而這座村莊就是我們所有人，市場就是整體經濟。

When there's extra money floating around and people want to spend it faster than businesses can make stuff, 文法

當外面流通的閒錢變多，而大家花錢的速度又比企業生產商品的速度快，

then all of the businesses in all of the industries raise their prices.

各行各業的所有企業就會一起漲價。

And that is inflation.

這就是通貨膨脹。

It's a natural part of the economy.

這是經濟中很自然的一部分。

It's kind of a good thing in small doses because it means that the economy is growing. 慣用語

小幅通膨算是好事，因為這代表經濟正在成長。

And it's why movie tickets used to be 25 cents and now they're like $15. 文法

這就是為什麼電影票以前只要25美分，現在卻要15美元左右。

And slowly over time, it's fine.

只要長期下來慢慢上漲，就沒問題。

Okay, let's go back to the village and see what happens if we keep going at this rate. 片語搭配

好，我們回到那座村莊，看看照這個速度繼續下去會發生什麼事。

The store owner has now doubled his prices on bikes.

店老闆現在把腳踏車的價格提高了一倍。

The interest rate is super low, so he takes out a loan to build a new factory to make bikes.

利率非常低，所以他貸款蓋了一座新工廠來生產腳踏車。

This is good.

這是好事。

He's growing a business.

他的事業正在擴張。

But the government money eventually runs out and his prices are still double.

但政府發的錢終究會花完，而他的價格還是原本的兩倍。

But now the store owner has no one to come buy all of his new bikes.

可是現在，已經沒有人來買他那些新腳踏車了。

And now he has this factory and more employees, but no customers.

他現在有了這座工廠和更多員工，卻沒有客人。

He has to shut down the factory, lay off everyone, 片語動詞

他只好關掉工廠，資遣所有人，

and slowly start lowering his prices.

再開始慢慢降價。

This is called recession.

這就叫經濟衰退。

When COVID shut down the world, governments gave us money, free money.

COVID讓全世界停擺時，各國政府給我們發錢，而且是免費的錢。

They're like, don't panic and hoard all your money.

他們的意思是：別慌，也別把所有錢都囤起來。

Instead, spend and borrow and keep the economy going. 片語搭配

要花錢、借錢，讓經濟繼續運轉。

Here in the US, they literally sent us $3,200 checks. 用詞

在美國，他們真的寄了3200美元的支票給我們。

They gave 600 bucks a week to people who were unemployed for months and months and months. 用詞

對於失業的人，他們連續好幾個月每週發600美元。

They gave subsidies to people with kids.

有小孩的人也拿到補助。

They increased spending on food stamps. 文化背景

政府還增加了食物券支出。

I mean, trillions and trillions of dollars of stimulus money. 用詞

我是說，這可是數兆美元、再加數兆美元的刺激資金。

This was vital aid to people in need.

對有需要的人來說，這是至關重要的援助。

But even people who didn't lose a job got a check in the mail.

但就連沒有失業的人，也收到郵寄來的支票。

It was free money for everyone.

每個人都有免費的錢拿。

And we spent it.

而我們把錢花掉了。

I just picked up myself a new bike.

我剛幫自己買了一輛新腳踏車。

Demand is up across the country.

全國各地的需求都在上升。

It's time to grind Peloton.

是時候上Peloton猛練了。

We all just got these big checks from the government.

我們都剛收到政府寄來的高額支票。

During a pandemic, we're like, YOLO, I'm buying a boat or a Peloton or whatever. 文化背景

疫情期間，我們想：人生只有一次，我要買艘船、買台Peloton，管他的。

Pokemon cards.

寶可夢卡牌。

There's Netflix.

還有Netflix。

Fortnite.

Fortnite。

A new motor.

一具新馬達。

Peloton.

Peloton。

Good soak in a hot tub.

在按摩浴缸裡舒服泡一下。

Animal Crossing.

《集合啦！動物森友會》。

Push it out a little bit so it--

往外推一點，這樣它就會——

No, don't you dare.

不，你敢！

But pair all this new spending with the fact that the pandemic also made it harder 文法

但除了所有這些新增消費之外，疫情還讓一件事變得更困難：

for factories and ships and retailers to get us all this stuff.

工廠、貨船和零售商更難把這些東西送到我們手上。

Supply chain issue. 用詞

供應鏈問題。

Global supply chain.

全球供應鏈。

Supply chain.

供應鏈。

Supply chain.

供應鏈。

Now you have an economy where people have way more money than normal and they're ready to spend it,

於是，這個經濟體裡的人比平常有更多錢，也準備好要花掉，

but the economy can't get them stuff fast enough.

但整體經濟卻無法夠快地把商品送到他們手上。

So what do businesses do with all this insane new demand? 表達脈絡

面對這種瘋狂增加的新需求，企業會怎麼做？

They raise prices all at the same time and that is inflation.

它們同時漲價，這就是通貨膨脹。

I feel like we're getting this at this point.

講到這裡，我覺得大家應該懂了。

But what do interest rates have to do with all this?

但利率跟這一切到底有什麼關係？

Raising the interest rate.

提高利率。

Interest rate.

利率。

Or the Fed.

或者說，聯準會。

Fed is Federal Reserve. 文化背景

Fed就是美國聯邦準備理事會。

The Federal Reserve.

美國聯邦準備理事會。

Most countries have a central bank, the puppet master of the economy, 講解

大多數國家都有中央銀行，也就是操控經濟的幕後主宰，

the bank of all banks for that country.

是那個國家所有銀行的銀行。

But it's not like a normal bank that stores our money and then lends it out and collects interest to make profit. 片語動詞

但它不像一般銀行那樣，保管我們的錢，再把錢借出去收利息賺錢。

That's what a normal private bank does.

那是一般民營銀行做的事。

The central bank, which we call the Fed here in the US,

中央銀行，也就是我們在美國所說的聯準會，

is run by the government.

是由政府管理的。

So their job is to set the rules or policies

所以，它的工作就是制定規則或政策，

that all the other banks have to follow.

讓其他所有銀行遵守。

And the central bank isn't motivated by profit,

中央銀行的動力並不是獲利，

but rather their job is to babysit the economy, 講解

它的工作其實是照看經濟，

to keep it growing, 表達脈絡

讓經濟持續成長，

to make sure people have jobs,

確保大家都有工作，

to make sure that prices don't fluctuate too much

確保物價不會波動太大，

so that we can keep growing nicely.

讓我們可以穩健成長。

No slowdown, no recession.

不放緩，也不衰退。

That is what the Fed is there for. 文法

這就是聯準會存在的目的。

But seriously, the Fed is like a puppet master and we are the puppets and it's kind of creepy.

但說真的，聯準會就像提線木偶師，我們則是木偶，想想還滿可怕的。

They pull strings in the economy 慣用語

它在經濟中牽動各種線，

to get us to spend our money in a certain way, 文法

讓我們用特定方式花錢，

which in turn affects how much businesses raise or drop their prices. 表達脈絡

進而影響企業把價格調高或調低多少。

And guess what?

猜猜怎麼著？

It totally works.

這招真的有效。

One of the strings that they have to pull in the economy is called the interest rate.

它在經濟中可以拉動的一條線，就叫做利率。

Want to borrow money to buy a car or a house

想借錢買車、買房，

or expand your business?

或者擴大生意嗎？

You're going to be way more likely to do that if you only have to pay 2% interest on that loan 文法

如果這筆貸款只要付2%的利息，你這麼做的可能性就會高得多，

as opposed to like 6%. 片語搭配

而不是付大約6%的利息。

Lower interest rates equal people and businesses want to borrow and spend money.

利率越低，民眾和企業就越想借錢、花錢。

So, during the pandemic, the central bank was like,

所以在疫情期間，中央銀行的想法是：

we need everyone to spend money.

我們得讓每個人都花錢。

So they lowered the interest rate and people borrowed and people spent and it totally worked.

於是，它調降利率，大家開始借錢、花錢，而且真的奏效了。

We're like freaking puppets.

我們根本就是該死的木偶。

So a lower interest rate helped stimulate the economy. 片語搭配

所以，較低的利率有助於刺激經濟。

But once again, we're in this same place

但我們又一次回到同樣的處境：

where there's now too much money to borrow and spend

現在可以拿來借貸和消費的錢太多，

and not enough goods and services to spend it on.

可以拿來買的商品和服務卻不夠。

So what do businesses do all at the same time?

那麼，所有企業會同時怎麼做？

They raise prices to meet all this new demand all at the same time.

它們會同時漲價，以因應所有這些新需求。

And now your money is worth less and that is inflation.

於是，你的錢變得比較不值錢，這就是通貨膨脹。

Home prices rising at their highest rate.

房價漲幅創下新高。

Astronomical bidding wars. 慣用語

競價大戰激烈得驚人。

Rents are going up.

房租也在上漲。

By nearly 24%.

漲幅接近24%。

So that's what's happening right now.

這就是現在正在發生的事。

All the prices are rising kind of at the same time.

各種價格差不多都在同時上漲。

What that means is that your $100 bill is now worth 8% less than it was last year. 表達脈絡

這代表你手上的100美元，現在比去年少了8%的價值。

Like the same money is worth less because your purchasing power just got diluted. 講解

也就是說，同樣的錢變得比較不值錢，因為你的購買力被稀釋了。

And imagine if that keeps happening.

想像一下，如果這種情況持續下去。

Like instead of 8%, it's 50%.

比方說，不是8%，而是50%。

Now your $100 bill is worth what $50 used to be.

現在的100美元，只等於以前的50美元。

And that's when people start to freak out. 片語動詞

這時候，大家就會開始恐慌。

And our economy that's built on human psychology

而我們這個建立在人類心理上的經濟

starts to falter

也開始搖搖欲墜，

and we fall into a recession or a depression 片語搭配

我們會陷入經濟衰退，甚至經濟大蕭條，

even if it gets real bad. 用詞

如果情況真的變得非常糟。

Which is exactly what the Fed is built to avoid.

而聯準會成立的目的，正是要避免這種情況。

So, they're back to pulling their strings and they've started raising rates.

所以，它又開始牽線操控，並著手升息。

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates.

聯準會正在升息。

The Federal Reserve taking action

聯準會正在採取行動，

to try and curb rising inflation. 片語搭配

試圖抑制持續升高的通膨。

They're gently raising the interest rate

它正緩慢提高利率，

to cool down all of this hardcore spending and borrowing. 講解

為這種瘋狂的消費和借貸降溫。

See if they can steer the ship back on course. 慣用語

看看能不能讓這艘船回到正確航道。

And let's hope it works.

希望這招有效。

All right, did we do it?

好了，我們做到了嗎？

Did we do did we do it in the time period that I promised I would?

我們有沒有、有沒有在我承諾的時間內講完？

We'll find out.

馬上揭曉。

Uh

呃……

Okay, last thing I want to say is

好，我最後還想說一件事，

a thing that didn't make it into my little inflation explainer. 片語動詞

一件沒能放進這段通膨小解說裡的事。

But a few years ago when I worked at Vox, I went to Venezuela and Colombia to do a borders series.

幾年前我還在Vox工作時，曾前往委內瑞拉和哥倫比亞製作邊境系列節目。

I saw inflation up close and personal 慣用語

我在那裡親眼見識了通貨膨脹，

because in Venezuela, inflation got so out of control 片語搭配

因為在委內瑞拉，通膨徹底失去控制，

and they couldn't the Fed, the puppet master

而他們的央行，也就是那個幕後操盤手，

couldn't like figure out how to get it back in control 講解

怎麼也想不出辦法讓局面恢復控制，

that their money became worth nothing.

結果他們的錢變得一文不值。

The prices went up so high that their money became basically worthless. 文法

物價漲得太高，他們的錢基本上變成了廢紙。

You needed like a pile of cash to buy bread.

買一塊麵包都得要一大疊鈔票。

So, what they started doing is they started using the currency itself to make things. 文法

於是，他們開始直接拿貨幣來製作物品。

Like I I visited this guy on the street

比方說，我在街上遇到一個人，

who was making like purses and bags 文法

他用鈔票製作皮夾和包包，

and like sculptures out of cash

還有各種雕塑，

because it was more worth more as a raw material

因為鈔票當成原料反而更值錢，

than it was as as like money, as a currency,

比它當成錢、當成貨幣時更有價值，

which is insane.

這實在太瘋狂了。

That's a very extreme version of inflation.

這是非常極端的一種通貨膨脹。

It's happened in several countries that have done this.

這種事也曾發生在其他幾個國家。

We're not in that situation, even close to that situation. 文法

我們並沒有處在那種情況，甚至離那種情況還很遠。

But it's an example of just how tenuous modern economies are. 文法

但這個例子說明，現代經濟其實非常脆弱。

They're not like pegged to gold or whatever. 用詞

它們並不是跟黃金之類的東西掛鉤。

They're like pegged to a bunch of humans

它們其實是跟一群人的信念掛鉤：

believing that this stuff is worth something.

相信這些東西有價值。

And it can quickly go off the rails. 慣用語

而這一切很快就可能脫軌。

So, I thought I'd share that little fun thing 語氣意圖

所以，我想順便分享這個有點意思的小故事，

that is more documented in the Vox Borders episode

Vox的《Borders》那一集有更詳細的紀錄，

that you can go watch on the Vox YouTube channel.

你可以到Vox的YouTube頻道觀看。

So, that's all I've got.

好，我要說的就這些。

Um thank you all for being here

嗯，謝謝大家看到這裡。

and I think you should check out if you want to color your videos or your photos.

如果你想幫影片或照片調色，我覺得可以看看我的工具。

I've LUTs and presets that uh you can use to color correct your stuff.

我有LUT和預設，可以用來校正素材的色彩。

I also have a storytelling course on Bright Trip

我在Bright Trip上還有一門敘事課程，

where I talk about my methodology for visual storytelling

會在裡面分享我的視覺敘事方法，

with Nathaniel Drew.

是和Nathaniel Drew一起製作的。

I think that's sort of it, all the plugs

我想差不多就是這些了，這些宣傳內容

I should do at the end of these videos.

就是我應該在影片結尾說的。

But um yeah, lots more to come.

不過，嗯，接下來還有很多內容。

We're working on lots of amazing videos and I'm really excited to share them.

我們正在製作許多精彩的影片，我非常期待和大家分享。

So, I'll see you in the next one.

那麼，我們下支影片見。

Bye, everyone.

大家再見。

Okay.

好。